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Seminar Financial Empowerment for Educators Alan Sitkoff First Vice President – Wealth Management Financial Advisor
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Source of Income for Retirees
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The Value of Sound Advice ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],There can be no assurance that working with a financial advisor will improve investment results. © 2008 Mulberry Communications.
Realistic Expectations History of Financial Markets (%) Past performance is no guarantee of future results.   Average annualized rates of return. Investors should note that Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while corporate bonds and stocks are not. Stocks also tend to be the most volatile, while bonds offer a fixed rate of return. In general, the higher the risk, the higher the potential return. Returns calculated by Mulberry Communications using data provided by Global Financial Data, Inc. Used with permission. Stocks are represented by the Wilshire 5000 ®  Index, bonds by 10-year U.S. Treasury Bonds and Treasury bills by U.S. 90-day Treasury bills. Inflation is represented by the Department of Labor all Urban Consumer Price Index. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any specific investment. 1948-2007 1968-2007 1988-2007 1998-2007
Waiting Out the Storms Has Been Worth It 86 mos. 50 mos. 43 mos. 26 mos. 32 mos. 24 mos. 33 mos. 60 mos. 31 mos. 113 mos. 3 mos. 65 mos. 7 mos. 18 mos. 3 mos. 3 mos. 20 mos. 18 mos. 21 mos. 18 mos. 8 mos. 6 mos. 15 mos. S&P 500 ®  Cumulative Total Return 450% 350 250 150 50 0 -50 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2007 Bull and Bear Markets (June 13, 1949 – December 31, 2007) Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bars represent cumulative total returns. All data are monthly averages except for the initial and terminal months of the cycle, which are the S&P 500 ®  close for that date. Source: Security Price Index Record, Statistical Service and S&P Corporation. The S&P 500 ®  Index is an unmanaged index commonly used to measure stock market performance that is not available for direct investment. © 2008 Mulberry Communications.
Waiting Out the Storms Has Been Worth It Declines in the S&P 500 ® 1928 – 2007 5% or more 264 38 3.3 per year 10% or more 87 103 1.1 per year 15% or more 38 198 1 every 2 years 20% or more 23 305 1 every 3 years Average Length Decline  # Declines  (Days) Frequency Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc.
Time Can Help Heal All Wounds Past performance is no guarantee of future results.   Bar charts represent annualized total returns for the S&P 500 ®  Index, an unmanaged index commonly used to measure stock market performance that is not available for direct investment. © 2008 Mulberry Communications; Global Financial Data, Inc., Ibid.  The 13 Down Years Since  the End of WWII... Where Investors Stood Three Years Later...
What About Bonds? © 2008 Mulberry Communications.  Interest  Rates Interest  Rates Bond Prices Bond Prices
Emotions Cost Money The Average Investor Falls Short Past performance is no guarantee of future results.   The Golden Rule of Investing™ does not necessarily mean a 65/35 equity/bond allocation. This example is hypothetical and does not reflect the actual return of any investment. There can be no guarantee that any particular yield or return will be achieved for any investment.  Data for the first bar is from a 2007 survey conducted by DALBAR, Inc. The U.S. Stock Market is measured by  the Wilshire 5000 ® . The final bar assumes that the equity segment of the portfolio was composed of the Wilshire 5000 ®.  and the bond portion was composed of 10-year government bonds. © 2008 Mulberry Communications.  ™
Risk and Return Results for Stock and Bond Blends Twenty Years Ending December 2007 Source: Citi Smith Barney 9% 10% 11% 12% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Standard Deviation Annualized Return 100% Stocks 50% Stocks 100% Bonds
Taking Enough Risk:  The Power of Diversification George and Martha Prepare for Retirement These allocations are hypothetical and are not recommendations or predictions of actual results. Assumes $100,000 is invested continuously for 25 years. Martha’s example assumes that $100,000 is divided into four $25,000 segments. Investors should note that diversification does not assure against market loss and there is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a nondiversified portfolio. There can be no assurance that the rates of return cited in the example will be attained, and there are greater risks associated with investments that have the potential to provide greater returns.  © 2008 Mulberry Communications.  $100,000 $338,635 $25,000 $25,000 $25,000 $25,000 $805,528 5% Return 12% Return 10% Return 5% Return 0% Return Initial Investment 25 Years Later Initial Investment 25 Years Later Martha George
Which Investments Should I Own ? Investors should note that diversification does not assure against market loss and there is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a non-diversified portfolio. These allocations are hypothetical and are not recommendations or predictions of actual results.  The eight investment classes cited in the chart above range from lower risk (e.g., Stable Asset) to higher risk (e.g., Aggressive Growth). Overall portfolio risk is determined by the investor’s allocations to specific investment classes. © 2008 Mulberry Communications.  Stable Asset 25 % 12 % 5 % 0 % ___% Intermediate Bonds 25 12 5 0 ___ High Yield 5 12 10 10 ___ Balanced 10 16 10 10 ___ Large-Cap Growth 15 12 20 20 ___ Mid-Cap Value 5 12 20 20 ___ International 10 12 15 20 ___ Aggressive Growth 5 12 15 20 ___ 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100% Hypothetical Allocations Moderate Conservative Aggressive Very Aggressive Your Allocation
Investing at the Right Place and Time Past performance is no guarantee of future results.   Foreign investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risks. This example is for illustrative purposes only and is not a prediction or guarantee of actual results or intended to represent the performance of any investment. Average annualized rates of return. Highlighted areas represent the best-performing area for that year. © 2008 Mulberry Communications. Growth stocks: Wilshire 5000 Growth Index. Value stocks: Wilshire 5000 Value Index. U.S. stocks: S&P 500 ®  Index.  Foreign stocks: MSCI EAFE Index. These indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Source:  Morningstar,  Ibid . Blue indicates the winning style for that particular year  Growth Value U.S. Foreign % Return of Stocks 2.9 18.1 1993  10.1 32.6 2.7 -2.0 1994  1.3 7.8 37.2 38.4 1995   37.5 11.2 23.1 21.6 1996   23.0 6.1 30.5 35.2 1997  33.4 1.8 38.7 15.6 1998  28.6 20.0 33.2 7.4 1999  21.0 27.0 -22.4 7.0 2000  -9.1 -14.2 -20.4 -5.6 2001  -11.9 -21.4 -27.9 -15.5 2002  -22.1 -15.9 29.8 30.0 2003  28.7 38.6 6.3 16.5 2004  10.9 20.3 5.3 7.1 2005  4.9 13.5 9.1 22.2 2006 15.8 26.3 11.8 -0.2 2007  5.5 11.2
Rebalancing: A Classic Investment Discipline This rebalancing example is hypothetical and does not represent the performance of any investment.  Rebalancing does not assure a profit nor protect against loss.  Investors should bear in mind there are certain tax implications involved when selling funds for rebalancing purposes.  Your allocation may be different than four equal 25% allocations, and you may choose to rebalance with a frequency other than annually.  © 2008 Mulberry Communications.   December 31 Ending Balances January 1 After Rebalancing Fund A Fund B Fund C Fund D Fund A Fund B Fund C Fund D $15,000 12,000 10,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 Original $10,000 Investment
The Real Story of the Stock Market 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2007 This example is hypothetical and are not recommendations or predictions of actual results.  Calculations assume money is invested in a tax-qualified retirement plan. Chart is based upon total returns for the Wilshire 5000 ®  Index from 1941 to 2007. © 2008 Mulberry Communications.  The Value of Patience Over Panic $1,731,837 Value on 12/31/07 1941 Pearl Harbor $1,000 Initial Investment 1/1/41 1993 World Trade Center bombing 1987 Stock market crashes 1974 President Nixon resigns 1963 President Kennedy assassinated 1950 Korean War 1961 Berlin Wall built 1998 Asian financial crisis sends market tumbling 2002  Iraq war 2001 World Trade Center attack
What Happens When the Market Corrects? Portfolios Past performance is no guarantee of future results.   Stock market change is represented by the Wilshire 5000 ® . Bond market change is represented by 10-year government bonds. The indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Source: Global Financial Data, Inc.,  Ibid . On average, conservative investors would have experienced a positive 1% change during the stock market’s worst years during the past three decades. This chart is for illustrative purposes only. Stock market change is represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Bond market change is represented by the Lehman Brothers Long U.S. Government Index. © 2008 Mulberry Communications.  Stock Market  Conservative Moderate Aggressive Down Years   Stocks   Bonds   Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio (since 1971) % % Change % Change % Change % 1973   -19 +3 -3 -8 -12 1974 -28 +4 -6 -12 -19 1977 -3 0 -1 -1 -2 1981 -4 +4 +2 0 -1 1990 -6 +8 +4 +1 -2 2000 -11 +17 +9 +3 -2 2001 -11 +6 +1 -3 -6 2002 -21 +15 +4 -3 -10 Average all down years  -13 +7 +1 -3 -7 Stocks Bonds 30% 70% Conservative 50% 50% Moderate 70% 30% Aggressive
Destroying Returns the Easy Way The High Cost of Short-Term Investing Past performance is no guarantee of future results.   Daily index values of the S&P 500 ®  from October 1, 2002 to October 21, 2002; Bloomberg. The index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. This example is for illustrative purposes only.  © 2008 Mulberry Communications.  900 875 850 825 800 775 Excitement Fear Anxiety Euphoria 10-21-02 10-09-02 Panic Emotional investors sell here when they are pessimistic Emotional investors buy here when they are optimistic again 10-01-02
Why Down Years Are “Good” Past performance is no guarantee of future results.   Figures shown are annual total returns. Source: Dow Jones & Company, Inc.  © 2008 Mulberry Communications.  1933 73.6% 1928 55.4 1954 51.3 1975 44.7 1935 43.8 1958 39.3 1995 36.8 1985 33.5 1938 33.2 2000 - 4.9% 1960 - 6.1 1962 - 7.4 1940 - 7.9 1957 - 8.6 1941 - 9.9 1969 - 11.8 2001 - 11.9 1977 - 12.8 1973 - 13.3% 1929 - 13.6 2002 - 15.0   1966 - 15.8 1932 - 16.8 1974 - 23.6 1937 - 28.9 1930 - 30.3 1931 - 49.0 Dow Jones Industrial Average  (Best to Worst) 1989 32.2% 1945 31.6 1936 30.3 1996 28.8 2003 28.3 1999 27.2 1982 27.1 1986 27.1 1955 26.6 18 Best Years 18 Worst Years
What You Must Know About Market Timing  Average Annual Return S&P 500 ®  1/88 – 12/07 Past performance is no guarantee of future results.   Returns cited exclude dividends. © 2008 Mulberry Communications.  5,043  Trading Days Without the 60 Best Days
Combating Inflation 1/1/26 – 12/31/07 Past performance is no guarantee of future results.   Data since 1926. Stocks: Wilshire 5000 ® . Bonds: 10-year government bonds. Cash: 90-Day T-bills. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any specific investment and is not a prediction of actual results. Investors should note that Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. Stocks tend to be most volatile while bonds offer a fixed rate of return. In general, the higher the risk, the higher the potential return. There can be no assurance that the rates of return cited in the example will be attained, and there are greater risks associated with investments that have the potential to provide greater returns. The Global Financial Data, Inc.,  Ibid .  Historically, stocks  have always stood tall . . . . . . but after inflation they tower over bonds and cash U.S. Stocks Gov’t Bonds 90-Day T-bills   U.S. Stocks Gov’t Bonds 90-Day T-bills   2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 9.0x
The Retirement Equation © 2008 Mulberry Communications The kitchen remodeling and a new fishing boat come before saving any more right now. How much will you save and invest? 1 I will pay myself  first. What I save I won’t spend. Your answer to these four questions will determine the quality of your retirement.
The Retirement Equation How long will you let your money grow? 2 I will start now. Time, not timing,  is my strategy. I have a million projects. When I’m done, I’ll start putting more money away. What’s another year? © 2008 Mulberry Communications
The Retirement Equation © 2008 Mulberry Communications What will you invest in? 3 I invest in stocks. I don’t time the market. I see myself as a long-term owner of many quality businesses. I don’t understand the stock market. So, I’ll keep my money in the stable asset or money market fund.
The Retirement Equation © 2008 Mulberry Communications. Investors should note that systematic investing does not assure against a profit or protect against losses in a declining market. There are greater risks associated with investments that have the potential to provide greater returns. I stay disciplined. I buy quality investments, diversify, patiently hold and rebalance when necessary.” I don’t consider myself a hotshot investor. I just play it by ear. What else can you do? How disciplined will you be? 4 Plan for a  Comfortable  Retirement?  No  Plan  for Retirement?
The Rule of 72 The Power of Compounding This hypothetical example assumes you will hold this investment posture during the entire 40 years and does not represent the actual return of any investment. Please note that volatility, including fluctuating prices and the uncertainty of rates of return inherent in investing in stocks and bonds (as used in this example) over extended periods of time will affect the actual return received. Calculations assume money was invested in a tax-qualified plan.  We assumed a portfolio of 75% stocks averaging 10% growth annually and 25% bonds averaging 6% annually for an average annual total return for the portfolio of 9%. With a 9% growth rate, the portfolio would double approximately every 8 years. © 2008 Mulberry Communications.  $31,250 $62,500 $125,000 $250,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 Today 8 16 24 32 40 Years Based on historical investment returns,  how long will it take your money to double?
The High Cost of Waiting This example is hypothetical and are not recommendations or predictions of actual results. There can be no guarantee that any particular yield or return will be achieved from any investment.  The assumed rate of return is a constant 8% annual growth rate in this hypothetical example. © 2008 Mulberry Communications.  $63,138 $0.00 And retire after 40 years with the same amount. Or You can put off saving  for 8 years, save a little, then save $2,000 each year for the next 31 years. You can begin  early, and save  $2,000 for  8 years, save a bit more, then nothing for the  next 31 years. $279,781 $279,781 $16,862 $16,862 $0.00
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The Millionaire Next Door ,[object Object],[object Object],By Thomas J. Stanley, Ph.D. William D. Danko, Ph.D .
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About Credit Scores Save the Smart Way As you improve your FICO scores, you pay less  when you buy on credit –  whether purchasing a home loan, cell phone, a car loan, or signing up  for credit cards.  For example, on a $150,000 30 year, fixed-rate mortgage: Your Your Your FICO interest monthly Score rate payment 720-850 5.84% $883 700-719 5.96% $895 675-699 6.50% $948 620-674 7.65% $1,064 560-619 8.53% $1,157 500-559 9.29% $1,238
 
10 Most Common Estate Planning Mistakes by Thomas E. Gould ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
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Financial empowernment for educators

  • 1. Seminar Financial Empowerment for Educators Alan Sitkoff First Vice President – Wealth Management Financial Advisor
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  • 5. Source of Income for Retirees
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  • 9. Realistic Expectations History of Financial Markets (%) Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Average annualized rates of return. Investors should note that Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while corporate bonds and stocks are not. Stocks also tend to be the most volatile, while bonds offer a fixed rate of return. In general, the higher the risk, the higher the potential return. Returns calculated by Mulberry Communications using data provided by Global Financial Data, Inc. Used with permission. Stocks are represented by the Wilshire 5000 ® Index, bonds by 10-year U.S. Treasury Bonds and Treasury bills by U.S. 90-day Treasury bills. Inflation is represented by the Department of Labor all Urban Consumer Price Index. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of any specific investment. 1948-2007 1968-2007 1988-2007 1998-2007
  • 10. Waiting Out the Storms Has Been Worth It 86 mos. 50 mos. 43 mos. 26 mos. 32 mos. 24 mos. 33 mos. 60 mos. 31 mos. 113 mos. 3 mos. 65 mos. 7 mos. 18 mos. 3 mos. 3 mos. 20 mos. 18 mos. 21 mos. 18 mos. 8 mos. 6 mos. 15 mos. S&P 500 ® Cumulative Total Return 450% 350 250 150 50 0 -50 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2007 Bull and Bear Markets (June 13, 1949 – December 31, 2007) Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bars represent cumulative total returns. All data are monthly averages except for the initial and terminal months of the cycle, which are the S&P 500 ® close for that date. Source: Security Price Index Record, Statistical Service and S&P Corporation. The S&P 500 ® Index is an unmanaged index commonly used to measure stock market performance that is not available for direct investment. © 2008 Mulberry Communications.
  • 11. Waiting Out the Storms Has Been Worth It Declines in the S&P 500 ® 1928 – 2007 5% or more 264 38 3.3 per year 10% or more 87 103 1.1 per year 15% or more 38 198 1 every 2 years 20% or more 23 305 1 every 3 years Average Length Decline # Declines (Days) Frequency Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc.
  • 12. Time Can Help Heal All Wounds Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bar charts represent annualized total returns for the S&P 500 ® Index, an unmanaged index commonly used to measure stock market performance that is not available for direct investment. © 2008 Mulberry Communications; Global Financial Data, Inc., Ibid. The 13 Down Years Since the End of WWII... Where Investors Stood Three Years Later...
  • 13. What About Bonds? © 2008 Mulberry Communications. Interest Rates Interest Rates Bond Prices Bond Prices
  • 14. Emotions Cost Money The Average Investor Falls Short Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Golden Rule of Investing™ does not necessarily mean a 65/35 equity/bond allocation. This example is hypothetical and does not reflect the actual return of any investment. There can be no guarantee that any particular yield or return will be achieved for any investment. Data for the first bar is from a 2007 survey conducted by DALBAR, Inc. The U.S. Stock Market is measured by the Wilshire 5000 ® . The final bar assumes that the equity segment of the portfolio was composed of the Wilshire 5000 ®. and the bond portion was composed of 10-year government bonds. © 2008 Mulberry Communications. ™
  • 15. Risk and Return Results for Stock and Bond Blends Twenty Years Ending December 2007 Source: Citi Smith Barney 9% 10% 11% 12% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Standard Deviation Annualized Return 100% Stocks 50% Stocks 100% Bonds
  • 16. Taking Enough Risk: The Power of Diversification George and Martha Prepare for Retirement These allocations are hypothetical and are not recommendations or predictions of actual results. Assumes $100,000 is invested continuously for 25 years. Martha’s example assumes that $100,000 is divided into four $25,000 segments. Investors should note that diversification does not assure against market loss and there is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a nondiversified portfolio. There can be no assurance that the rates of return cited in the example will be attained, and there are greater risks associated with investments that have the potential to provide greater returns. © 2008 Mulberry Communications. $100,000 $338,635 $25,000 $25,000 $25,000 $25,000 $805,528 5% Return 12% Return 10% Return 5% Return 0% Return Initial Investment 25 Years Later Initial Investment 25 Years Later Martha George
  • 17. Which Investments Should I Own ? Investors should note that diversification does not assure against market loss and there is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a non-diversified portfolio. These allocations are hypothetical and are not recommendations or predictions of actual results. The eight investment classes cited in the chart above range from lower risk (e.g., Stable Asset) to higher risk (e.g., Aggressive Growth). Overall portfolio risk is determined by the investor’s allocations to specific investment classes. © 2008 Mulberry Communications. Stable Asset 25 % 12 % 5 % 0 % ___% Intermediate Bonds 25 12 5 0 ___ High Yield 5 12 10 10 ___ Balanced 10 16 10 10 ___ Large-Cap Growth 15 12 20 20 ___ Mid-Cap Value 5 12 20 20 ___ International 10 12 15 20 ___ Aggressive Growth 5 12 15 20 ___ 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100% Hypothetical Allocations Moderate Conservative Aggressive Very Aggressive Your Allocation
  • 18. Investing at the Right Place and Time Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Foreign investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risks. This example is for illustrative purposes only and is not a prediction or guarantee of actual results or intended to represent the performance of any investment. Average annualized rates of return. Highlighted areas represent the best-performing area for that year. © 2008 Mulberry Communications. Growth stocks: Wilshire 5000 Growth Index. Value stocks: Wilshire 5000 Value Index. U.S. stocks: S&P 500 ® Index. Foreign stocks: MSCI EAFE Index. These indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Source: Morningstar, Ibid . Blue indicates the winning style for that particular year Growth Value U.S. Foreign % Return of Stocks 2.9 18.1 1993 10.1 32.6 2.7 -2.0 1994 1.3 7.8 37.2 38.4 1995 37.5 11.2 23.1 21.6 1996 23.0 6.1 30.5 35.2 1997 33.4 1.8 38.7 15.6 1998 28.6 20.0 33.2 7.4 1999 21.0 27.0 -22.4 7.0 2000 -9.1 -14.2 -20.4 -5.6 2001 -11.9 -21.4 -27.9 -15.5 2002 -22.1 -15.9 29.8 30.0 2003 28.7 38.6 6.3 16.5 2004 10.9 20.3 5.3 7.1 2005 4.9 13.5 9.1 22.2 2006 15.8 26.3 11.8 -0.2 2007 5.5 11.2
  • 19. Rebalancing: A Classic Investment Discipline This rebalancing example is hypothetical and does not represent the performance of any investment. Rebalancing does not assure a profit nor protect against loss. Investors should bear in mind there are certain tax implications involved when selling funds for rebalancing purposes. Your allocation may be different than four equal 25% allocations, and you may choose to rebalance with a frequency other than annually. © 2008 Mulberry Communications. December 31 Ending Balances January 1 After Rebalancing Fund A Fund B Fund C Fund D Fund A Fund B Fund C Fund D $15,000 12,000 10,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 0 Original $10,000 Investment
  • 20. The Real Story of the Stock Market 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2007 This example is hypothetical and are not recommendations or predictions of actual results. Calculations assume money is invested in a tax-qualified retirement plan. Chart is based upon total returns for the Wilshire 5000 ® Index from 1941 to 2007. © 2008 Mulberry Communications. The Value of Patience Over Panic $1,731,837 Value on 12/31/07 1941 Pearl Harbor $1,000 Initial Investment 1/1/41 1993 World Trade Center bombing 1987 Stock market crashes 1974 President Nixon resigns 1963 President Kennedy assassinated 1950 Korean War 1961 Berlin Wall built 1998 Asian financial crisis sends market tumbling 2002 Iraq war 2001 World Trade Center attack
  • 21. What Happens When the Market Corrects? Portfolios Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Stock market change is represented by the Wilshire 5000 ® . Bond market change is represented by 10-year government bonds. The indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Source: Global Financial Data, Inc., Ibid . On average, conservative investors would have experienced a positive 1% change during the stock market’s worst years during the past three decades. This chart is for illustrative purposes only. Stock market change is represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Bond market change is represented by the Lehman Brothers Long U.S. Government Index. © 2008 Mulberry Communications. Stock Market Conservative Moderate Aggressive Down Years Stocks Bonds Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio (since 1971) % % Change % Change % Change % 1973 -19 +3 -3 -8 -12 1974 -28 +4 -6 -12 -19 1977 -3 0 -1 -1 -2 1981 -4 +4 +2 0 -1 1990 -6 +8 +4 +1 -2 2000 -11 +17 +9 +3 -2 2001 -11 +6 +1 -3 -6 2002 -21 +15 +4 -3 -10 Average all down years -13 +7 +1 -3 -7 Stocks Bonds 30% 70% Conservative 50% 50% Moderate 70% 30% Aggressive
  • 22. Destroying Returns the Easy Way The High Cost of Short-Term Investing Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Daily index values of the S&P 500 ® from October 1, 2002 to October 21, 2002; Bloomberg. The index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment. This example is for illustrative purposes only. © 2008 Mulberry Communications. 900 875 850 825 800 775 Excitement Fear Anxiety Euphoria 10-21-02 10-09-02 Panic Emotional investors sell here when they are pessimistic Emotional investors buy here when they are optimistic again 10-01-02
  • 23. Why Down Years Are “Good” Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Figures shown are annual total returns. Source: Dow Jones & Company, Inc. © 2008 Mulberry Communications. 1933 73.6% 1928 55.4 1954 51.3 1975 44.7 1935 43.8 1958 39.3 1995 36.8 1985 33.5 1938 33.2 2000 - 4.9% 1960 - 6.1 1962 - 7.4 1940 - 7.9 1957 - 8.6 1941 - 9.9 1969 - 11.8 2001 - 11.9 1977 - 12.8 1973 - 13.3% 1929 - 13.6 2002 - 15.0 1966 - 15.8 1932 - 16.8 1974 - 23.6 1937 - 28.9 1930 - 30.3 1931 - 49.0 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Best to Worst) 1989 32.2% 1945 31.6 1936 30.3 1996 28.8 2003 28.3 1999 27.2 1982 27.1 1986 27.1 1955 26.6 18 Best Years 18 Worst Years
  • 24. What You Must Know About Market Timing Average Annual Return S&P 500 ® 1/88 – 12/07 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Returns cited exclude dividends. © 2008 Mulberry Communications. 5,043 Trading Days Without the 60 Best Days
  • 25. Combating Inflation 1/1/26 – 12/31/07 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data since 1926. Stocks: Wilshire 5000 ® . Bonds: 10-year government bonds. Cash: 90-Day T-bills. This chart is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any specific investment and is not a prediction of actual results. Investors should note that Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. Stocks tend to be most volatile while bonds offer a fixed rate of return. In general, the higher the risk, the higher the potential return. There can be no assurance that the rates of return cited in the example will be attained, and there are greater risks associated with investments that have the potential to provide greater returns. The Global Financial Data, Inc., Ibid . Historically, stocks have always stood tall . . . . . . but after inflation they tower over bonds and cash U.S. Stocks Gov’t Bonds 90-Day T-bills U.S. Stocks Gov’t Bonds 90-Day T-bills 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 9.0x
  • 26. The Retirement Equation © 2008 Mulberry Communications The kitchen remodeling and a new fishing boat come before saving any more right now. How much will you save and invest? 1 I will pay myself first. What I save I won’t spend. Your answer to these four questions will determine the quality of your retirement.
  • 27. The Retirement Equation How long will you let your money grow? 2 I will start now. Time, not timing, is my strategy. I have a million projects. When I’m done, I’ll start putting more money away. What’s another year? © 2008 Mulberry Communications
  • 28. The Retirement Equation © 2008 Mulberry Communications What will you invest in? 3 I invest in stocks. I don’t time the market. I see myself as a long-term owner of many quality businesses. I don’t understand the stock market. So, I’ll keep my money in the stable asset or money market fund.
  • 29. The Retirement Equation © 2008 Mulberry Communications. Investors should note that systematic investing does not assure against a profit or protect against losses in a declining market. There are greater risks associated with investments that have the potential to provide greater returns. I stay disciplined. I buy quality investments, diversify, patiently hold and rebalance when necessary.” I don’t consider myself a hotshot investor. I just play it by ear. What else can you do? How disciplined will you be? 4 Plan for a Comfortable Retirement? No Plan for Retirement?
  • 30. The Rule of 72 The Power of Compounding This hypothetical example assumes you will hold this investment posture during the entire 40 years and does not represent the actual return of any investment. Please note that volatility, including fluctuating prices and the uncertainty of rates of return inherent in investing in stocks and bonds (as used in this example) over extended periods of time will affect the actual return received. Calculations assume money was invested in a tax-qualified plan. We assumed a portfolio of 75% stocks averaging 10% growth annually and 25% bonds averaging 6% annually for an average annual total return for the portfolio of 9%. With a 9% growth rate, the portfolio would double approximately every 8 years. © 2008 Mulberry Communications. $31,250 $62,500 $125,000 $250,000 $500,000 $1,000,000 Today 8 16 24 32 40 Years Based on historical investment returns, how long will it take your money to double?
  • 31. The High Cost of Waiting This example is hypothetical and are not recommendations or predictions of actual results. There can be no guarantee that any particular yield or return will be achieved from any investment. The assumed rate of return is a constant 8% annual growth rate in this hypothetical example. © 2008 Mulberry Communications. $63,138 $0.00 And retire after 40 years with the same amount. Or You can put off saving for 8 years, save a little, then save $2,000 each year for the next 31 years. You can begin early, and save $2,000 for 8 years, save a bit more, then nothing for the next 31 years. $279,781 $279,781 $16,862 $16,862 $0.00
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  • 42. About Credit Scores Save the Smart Way As you improve your FICO scores, you pay less when you buy on credit – whether purchasing a home loan, cell phone, a car loan, or signing up for credit cards. For example, on a $150,000 30 year, fixed-rate mortgage: Your Your Your FICO interest monthly Score rate payment 720-850 5.84% $883 700-719 5.96% $895 675-699 6.50% $948 620-674 7.65% $1,064 560-619 8.53% $1,157 500-559 9.29% $1,238
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  • 52. Letter from Frank & Sarah
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Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Introduce yourself and welcome your guests Review the agenda for the seminar Travelers: Smith Barney is a member of TravelersGroup, a leading diversified financial services company listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol TRV. Travelers was ranked #5 on the 1997 Business Week 50 list, its honor roll of the best performing companies in the S&P 500. Travelers is a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Other members of the TravelersGroup family include: Commercial Credit, Primerica Financial Services, Travelers bank and Travelers Life & Annuity...among others. As you know, Travelers recently announced a merger with Citicorp. The new firm will be the largest financial services firm in the world. When the merger is complete, probably in several months, our parent corporation will be known as Citigroup. Smith Barney: Last fall, Smith Barney acquired Salomon Brothers, bringing expanded global research, trading and investment banking capabilities to the firm and our clients. One of the largest brokerage firms in the U.S. 430 branches with $650 Billion in client assets (details about your branch, i.e. # of FCs, average length of service, how long your branch has been in your town, etc.)
  2. 2 Despite today’s information overload, wealth can be created in the century ahead exactly as it has in the past – through insight and discipline. The secret to success is to adopt an investing discipline and stick with it. You can succeed by trusting in: – Your financial representative. – The financial markets. – Time-tested investing disciplines. – Investing math. (What’s investing math? Valuable odds in the market. The power of compounding. Prices follow profits.)
  3. 3 The main point of this chart is to put the returns of the bull market of the 1990s into perspective and help manage client expectations. Nobody can predict the short-term direction of the markets. But, the chart shows that if an investor was willing to hold quality investments long term, the simple compounding of gains and dividends at their historical rates would have made the disciplined investor a profit. So, for long-term money, why not have it largely in stocks?
  4. 4 When you look at this chart, what is obvious? There have been almost as many bear markets as bull markets! All bull markets will end. And all bear markets will end. It hurts more to miss a bull market than a bear market. A lot more.
  5. 5 This table shows data from 1928 through December 31, 2007, and reinforces the previous slide’s story. Note that over this period, we have experienced, on average, a decline of 5% or more 3 times a year and that its average length has been 38 days.
  6. 6 As you can see by this chart, the stock market has had only 13 down years in more than half a century. Investors’ number one fear is that the day they decide to invest in the market, it will go down. Investors’ number two fear is that if the market goes down, it will never go back up. Yet in the last half century, even the most unlucky, ill-timed investor was made whole again in comparatively short order. Only the stubborn bear market of 2000-2002 took longer.
  7. 7 Bonds and interest rates move in the opposite direction. People want to know why they move in the opposite direction. Bond prices always move in the opposite direction of interest rates.
  8. 8 A extensive survey conducted from 1987 - 2006 found that a typical mutual fund investor, largely buying and selling according to his or her emotions (or trying to time the market), experienced an average annual return during this period of 4.3%. The survey also revealed leaving all of your money in the broad stock market (represented by the middle bar) or using a classic allocation between stocks and bonds (right-hand bar) would have produced returns that were almost three times greater. Why? Investors behaving emotionally. The only way out of this destructive cycle is to replace emotion with discipline. Be sure to learn the Golden Rule by heart.
  9. The same analysis can be done for asset combinations. The results shown here are for different blends of stocks and bonds over a 20-year period. Note: Stock proxy is S&P 500 Index. Bond proxy is Ibbotson Government Bond Index. The portfolio at the bottom is 100% bonds. The next point on the line is 90% bonds and 10% stocks. The next is 80% and 20%. And so on. Notice that the line is not straight, but rather curves up and to the left before swinging around towards the all-stock portfolio. This shows the diversification advantage. Let’s take a closer look.
  10. 10 Despite George and Martha initially investing $100,000, Martha came out way ahead for her retirement…because she diversified. Financial representatives equate risk with reward. Investors equate risk with loss. Do you see a problem? Performance is personal, not just an impersonal benchmark index return. In general, investors could afford more risk with their portfolios. Investors don’t have to strike it rich with every investment. Remember, your clients need to take enough risk to give themselves a fighting chance to reach their personal investment goals.
  11. 11 Proper diversification is the key to striking the proper balance between reward and risk. Successful investing takes an understanding of the different asset classes, ranking of your investment options from most conservative to most aggressive, and understanding yourself! It is critical that investors understand why they are investing the way that they are. Your financial representative can help you develop a plan that best fits your needs. Investors should note that diversification does not assure against market loss and there is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a nondiversified portfolio.
  12. 12 Investors fantasize that they could have made “millions” by nimbly switching from one investment to the next. As the chart shows, no single investment is always dominant; one asset class outshines the other for a period of time. Remember, don’t chase investment performance. Foreign investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risks.
  13. 13 In the chart on the left, the investor began the year with $10,000 in each of four different mutual funds (A, B, C and D). Each fund is invested in a different asset class. Fund A lost 10%, and the others had positive gains of 5%, 20%, and 50%, respectively, during the year. As a result, by December 31, the investor’s portfolio had strayed from its original allocation of 25% in each fund. To remedy this, the portfolio was rebalanced (see chart on right) so that all four funds began the year once again allocated as desired. Rebalancing is easy. It keeps your portfolios from straying from their intended allocation. Rebalancing may cause tax consequences, such as capital gains, from the selling of funds in the portfolio. Rebalancing does not assure a profit nor protect against loss. Investors should bear in mind there are certain tax implications involved when selling funds for rebalancing purposes.
  14. 14 Despite catastrophic world events and their negative affect on the stock market, $10,000 invested in 1941 would have resulted in over $1.7 million as of 12/31/07. There will always be reasons to give up on stocks, but history has shown that patience and persistence pay off.
  15. 15 One of the greatest fears investors have is “losing what they have already earned.” Let’s look at three portfolios and how they are affected when the market corrects. The reality is that markets have gone down a little quite frequently. But markets have gone down a lot only rarely. Determine your risk tolerance and allocate accordingly.
  16. 16 It’s easy to destroy investment returns by behaving emotionally. Emotional investors sell after a significant pullback in the market and decide to jump back in after most of the market recovery. Most people buy an investment and expect it to go up. The next slide will show that patience is a virtue when it comes to investing.
  17. 17 Most people buy an investment and expect it to go up. The goal of this slide is to give investors a historical perspective and to persuade investors to look at down years as opportunities instead of threats. The worst four consecutive years are highlighted in burgundy, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1932 – the market crash and the Great Depression. On the chart in your booklet, can you find the next 4 years: 1933, 1934, 1935, 1936? As you can see, 1933 ranked number 1 with a return of 73.6%; 1934 ranked 46th with a 8.1% return; 1935 ranked 5th with a 43.8% return and 1936 ranked 12th with a 30.3% return. It is important to remember that down years in the stock market are normal, healthy and required.
  18. 18 If you look at the last 20 years, virtually all of the stock market’s return came from the best 60 days. Can anybody tell me when the best 60 days in the next 20 years will be? Statistically speaking, most days have no meaning whatsoever. They simply “cancel” each other out.
  19. 19 Ignoring inflation – even mild inflation – could ruin long-term financial holdings. Historically, stocks have grown almost twice as fast as bonds and cash. Remember, while you’re not looking, consumer prices double every 24 years. Historically stocks have been the best long-term inflation fighter.
  20. 20 The investors’ role is easy. They really have only 4 basic questions to answer. The role of the financial representative is critical in helping them with the answers. Here are your 4 basic questions. And, by the way, the answers count. Question 1...
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  23. 23 Will you stay disciplined, which can help you reach a comfortable retirement? Or will you be undisciplined and maybe have to keep working? Investors should note that systematic investing does not assure a profit or protect against losses in a declining market. There are greater risks associated with investments that have the potential to provide greater returns.
  24. 24 Compounding works! The Rule of 72 shows how long it takes for a sum of money to double. Simply divide an assumed rate of growth, say 9%, into 72 and you’ll find that your money will double every eight years. Using this $31,250 figure and an assumed annual return of 9%, the power of compounding will eventually allow this hypothetical investment to reach $1 million after 40 years. But keep in mind that this is a hypothetical example.It assumes that you’ll hold this same investment posture for the entire 40-year time span in a tax qualified plan which has accumulated tax deferred with no withdrawals or taxes paid. Also, investors should note that volatility, including fluctuating prices and the uncertainty of rates of return inherent in investing in stocks and bonds (as used in the example above) over extended periods of time, will affect the actual return received. This example does not represent the actual return of any investment.
  25. 25 The chart and the narrative say it all: Start now! It is important to restate that systematic investing does not assure a profit or protect against losses in a declining market.