2. Utilization of the Moon for NASA’s Vision
•ON the Moon
•Exploration and technology development/demonstration to reduce
risk/cost avoidance for systems supporting the Altair lander and LSS
•FROM the Moon
•Observations from the moon toward earth for earth/climate
“whole-disc” assessments
•Observations from the moon away from earth for far-side astronomy
oRadio astronomy
oAstrophysics
oHeliophysics
•ABOUT the Moon
•Support scientific research leading to increased understanding
about the Moon
oIts process, evolution, chronological dating
Tied to NRC report
Monday, February 22, 2010 2
3. Lunar Commercialization Goal
• Obtain lunar data for NASA through commercial
services
– Utilize emerging commercial capability to land
payloads on the Moon
• Includes lunar data purchase and/or NASA lunar instrument
delivery
– Cost to NASA that is less than a dedicated NASA
robotic mission
– Contracted services could begin in late 2011
timeframe
Monday, February 22, 2010 3
4. Fundamental Change for NASA
Apollo Model
From NASA as the
customer funding prime
contractors on a cost plus
fixed fee basis
Increased
Private Sector
Resources
Commercial –
(COTS/CRS) Model
To NASA as a customer and partner,
working with other customers, financiers,
and emerging space companies on fixed
price basis to secure capabilities, services
and products
5. Business Model Feasibility
•The shift from small market, highly complex projects to manageable components
with appeal to expanded markets enables greater commercial participation
- Evolution of the Discussion -
Large Landers Launchers
Key drivers include:
• Complexity
Market • Scale
Size Surface • Timing/frequency
Transportation
• Uncertainty
Communications
Small Services
Complex Simple
Product Development Cost Structure
• 5
5
6. Demand Framework
- US Government - Non-US Government -
- Tier 1
ESMD
- Space Science Directorate
Focused
- Planetary Astrophysics/ Earth Tier 2
Science Heliophysics Science
- Broad
Focus -
Academics
• 6
6
7. Current & Planned NASA Lunar Missions
2008 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23
’24 &’25
LRO LADEE US ILN US LQ 7 US LQ 8
NASA Unmanned LCROSS (Lunar Orbiter) (Lunar Landers) (Lunar Lander) (Lunar Lander) US LQ 9
Spacecraft (Lunar Orbiter GRAIL
(Lunar Lander)
and Impactor) (Lunar Orbiter Pair)
Mini-SAR*
(Chandrayaan-1)
NASA Moon Minarology
Instruments Mapper*
(Chandrayaan-1)
Constellation: Current ARES-V
View IOC
Altair IOC
(HLR)
Blue = Launched Green = Funded Yellow = Proposed Purple = Inactive
7
8. Current & Planned Lunar Missions:
Tier One International Agencies
2008 ’09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23
‘24 ‘25Chang’e 2 Chang’e 3 Chang’e 4
Chang’e 1 Chinese Manned
More Advanced Lunar Rover Lunar Sample Lunar Mission
Lunar Orbiter
China National Lunar Orbiter Return
Space Agency
SELENE/Kaguya SELENE 2/Kaguya 2 Japanese Robotic Japanese International
Lunar Orbiter Lunar Orbiter Lunar Mission Moon Base
Assumed by Inference:
Japan Aerospace Japanese Manned
First Japanese Manned Mission
Exploration Agency Lunar Mission
Luna-Glob 1 1
Luna-Glob Luna-Grunt 1 Luna-Grunt 2 Russian Robotic
Lunar Orbiter
Lunar Orbiter Lunar Orbiter, More Advanced Lunar Base
and Impactor Lander, and Lunar Orbiter,
Luna-Glob 2
and Impactor
Luna-Glob 2
Sample Return Lander, and
Luna-Glob 2 2
Lunar Lander
Luna-Glob
Lunar Lander
Roscosmos Lunar Lander
Lunar Lander Sample Return
Chandrayaan-1 Chandrayaan-2 Indian Manned
Lunar Orbiter Lunar Orbiter with Lunar Mission
Lunar Rover Assumed by Inference:
Indian Space Moon Impact Probe
First Indian Manned Mission
Research Organisation
European European Aurora
Autonomous Manned Lunar
European Space Lunar Lander Mission Program
Agency (possibly with NASA)
Blue = Launched Green = Funded Yellow = Proposed Red = Discussed
8
9. Current & Planned Lunar Missions:
Tier Two International Agencies
2008 ’09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23
‘24 ‘25
UK MoonLITE UK MoonRAKER
Lunar Orbiter with Lunar Lander
British National Four Impactors
Space Centre
South Korean South Korean
Lunar Orbiter Lunar Probe
Korea Aerospace
Research Institute
International Lunar Network (ILN) Program
(with NASA)
Canadian companies may have manufacturing role
Canadian Space
in the 4 planned missions launched together
Agency
Lunar Exploration
Orbiter (LEO)
German Space Lunar Orbiter
Agency
Blue = Launched Green = Funded Yellow = Proposed Red = Discussed
Notes
• Other civil space agencies—e.g. Australia, Israel, Brazil, South Africa—have not yet formulated active plans for lunar activity
• Current participants in International Lunar Network (ILN)—signatories to the July 2008 NASA Ames “Statement of Intent” are:
Canada, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States
9
10. NASA Driven Lunar Transport
LRO&
Demand Phasing
US ILN 1, Ares-V 180 Day
LADEE HLR
LCROSS GRAIL 2, 3, & 4
IOC Stay
2009 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23 ‘24 ‘25
Early demand from science/technology demonstrations
Potential heavy lift to Moon in advance/lieu of Ares V
Potential commercial resupply of manned outpost
Demand Time Description
Phase Frame
Early 2010-2013 • Driven by science and technology development objectives in preparation for human return
• Transport of instruments (as secondary payloads) and microlanders (GLXP)
2014-2017 • Small (LRO-class) spacecraft and landers such as the ILN probes
• Farside missions
• International organizations begin lander deployment
2018-2020 • Pre-Positioning of assets, site prep for HLR
Middle 2020-2025 • Driven by increased robotic activity at the Moon & initial human sorties
• Emplacement of infrastructure to enable long-duration human stays
• Potential to augment Ares V
Late Beyond 2025 • Support of human operations; resupply of human outposts
• Emplacement of large-scale and human-serviced science equipment
• 10
10
11. Lunar Objectives
Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG)
• LEAG has identified 70 lunar exploration objectives.
(Draft Lunar Exploration Roadmap, 2009)
– 50 require transport to lunar orbit and/or surface
– 46 require data derived from in-situ or orbital
measurement/observation of lunar parameters
• 19 are classified as “science” objectives which will likely provide
data towards the other objectives
– 58 are related to human lunar exploration needs or goals
– These objectives fall into the following nominal time
phasing*
Early Middle Late
45 56 54
* As defined by the LEAG, where EARLY includes any robotic precursors and activity up to human lunar return;
MIDDLE includes activity related to initial outpost build-up to including human stays of >1 lunar day and • 11
including part of the lunar night, as well as Robotic missions; and LATE includes activities with Lunar Outpost
11
established, human stays of >30 days, including robotic missions.
12. LEAG Science Objectives:
Demand for Lunar Data
LEAG Science Objectives which Require
Data on Parameter by Time Phase
"Science About the Moon"
Parameter: (Lunar Observable/Measurable) Early Middle Late Totals by Phase
Regolith Structure & Composition 4 4 4 Early: 8
Regolith Weathering 1 1 1 Late: 8
Lunar Geology
Structure and Composition of Lunar Rocks,
Middle: 8
Crust and Mantle 3 3 3
Terrain- Geological and Geophysical
Formations 4 5 5 Early: 6
Mapping Identification and Characterization of Cold Late: 5
Traps 1 Middle: 5
Sunlight/Illuminated Areas (Polar) 1
Exospheric 1 1 1 Early: 5
Volatiles
Surface Transport & Characterization 4 5 5 Middle: 6
Lunar Seismic Tomography 1
Early: 3
Other Lunar Electromagnetic Environment 1 1 1 Middle: 2
Lunar Dust- Toxicity and Effect on Late: 1
Equipment 1 1
TOTAL 22 21 20
Source: LEAG, Lunar Exploration Roadmap, 2009
• 12
12
13. Lunar Commercial
Payload Delivery
LunEx
“I have also long believed it
should be a balanced program that
includes both robotics and human
involvement, and our focus will be on
the human space flight aspect and that
part of the robotics program that links
directly to human space flight.”
Norm Augustine on Human Spaceflight
Review 5/8/09
14. Strategies for Achieving Commercial Lunar
Communications & Navigation (C&N):
Concepts for Industry Comment
Collaboration between
Exploration Systems Mission Directorate
Commercial Crew & Cargo Program Office (C3PO)
Rob Kelso, Lead
Jon Michael Smith
And
Space Operations Mission Directorate
Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN)
Program Office
Jim Schier
15. Mini-ISRU Node and Evaluation of
Regolith (MINER)
Commercial Lunar Oxygen
Rover mounted ISRU Payload
Excavator
NASA & Commercial Tractor Recover Oxygen from the Lunar Regolith
16. NASA Lunar Commercial Services :
“what’s new over the last year?”
• Commercial Lunar Payload Delivery/Data-Buy
– Goal: “buy the ride” or “buy the data” using commercially-demonstrated
capability …As soon as early 2012
– Service pool from: GLXP, Lockheed “Lunar Express”, others
– NASA collection of lunar data ‘desirement’ list of “demand”: ESMD/SOMD
– Assessing NASA options for advanced purchase commitments and prizes
– Continued discussion w/ NASA Lunar Science Inst. on data acquisition
• Lunar Commodities
– Commercially-provided lunar oxygen to support human lunar return
• Life support, water production, propellant
– Performed risk-adjusted cost analysis (RANPC) for Commercial Lunar O2
– ISRU has potential to save >$1B/yr … >5x cost trade
– Seeking funding for early flight test demo of O2 extraction (MINER)
Monday, February 22, 2010 16
17. Lunar Commercial activities this fall….
• Collection of “Orphan” equipment list
– Assessment of utilization
– Assessment of early demand vs science value
• Two funded studies
– Lunar Transportation Market Assessment (Futron)
– MINER Pre-Phase A conceptual assessment (NASA)
• Assessment of Augustine Report and resultant
NASA strategic planning
