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1.
National Aeronautics and
Space Administration Introduction to Project Scheduling NASA PM Challenge 2011 Long Beach California February 9-10, 2011 Walt Majerowicz, MBA, PMP ASRC Aerospace Corporation Used with permission
2.
Purpose of Today’s
Presentation The purpose to today’s session is to provide a basic overview of project scheduling. © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 2
3.
Agenda
• NASA Project Scheduling Perspectives • Project Scheduling Processes • Additional Project Scheduling Resources © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 3
4.
NASA Project Scheduling
Perspectives © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 4
5.
NASA Projects Are
Large, Expensive and Complex NASA spends approximately 85 percent of its budget on procurements, while other project work is performed “in-house” at NASA facilities © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 5
6.
NASA Project Life
Cycle Simplified FORMULATION IMPLEMENTATION Project Pre-A A B C D E F Concept Concept & Preliminary Final Sys. Ops. & Closeout Technology Phases Studies Development Design & Design & Assembly, Sustainment Tech. Comp. Fabrication Test, & Launch A B C D E F Key Decision Points Mission Concept Review Systems Requirements Review Major Mission Definition Review (or System Definition Review) Reviews Preliminary Design Review Critical Design Review Systems Integration Review Operational Readiness Review Flight Readiness Review Post Launch Assessment Review Decommissioning © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 Review 6
7.
NPR 7120.5 Project
Schedule Requirements Project Phase Schedule Requirement Pre-Phase A Draft Management Baseline that includes “a schedule” Phase A Preliminary Project Plan that includes the “schedule baseline” / Integrated Master Schedule Phase B Approved Project Plan that includes schedule baseline / Integrated Master Schedule Phase C/D - Maintain a schedule baseline based on an approved joint cost and schedule confidence level - Notice and recovery plan if C/D phase life cycle milestone is estimated to be delayed 6 months or more Formulation / Implementation Schedule margin . . . based on assessments of risks SOURCE: NM 7120-81: NID for 7120.5D © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 7
8.
Integrated Master Schedule
Integrated Master Schedule “An integrated set of schedule data that reflects the total project scope of work as discrete and measurable tasks/milestones that are time-phased through the use of task durations, interdependencies, and date constraints and is traceable to the WBS.” SOURCE: NM 7120-81: NID for 7120.5D © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 8
9.
Project Scheduling Processes ©
Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 9
10.
Project Scheduling Processes
Process Primary Output Activity Definition Task listing of project work scope Activity Sequencing Project logic / activity dependencies Activity Duration Estimating Approximation of working time (e.g. days) to accomplish each activity Schedule Margin Planning Funded schedule allowance to account for risk and uncertainty Schedule Development Schedule baseline / Integrated Master Schedule Schedule Status Accounting, Data Current schedule (actual progress + Maintenance & Updating forecast to complete) Schedule Analysis & Assessment Insight and understanding Schedule Performance Reporting Results, metrics and trends Schedule Control Revisions, replans/rebaselines, management decisions © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 10
11.
Activity Definition
Activity Description KDP-C Approval Spacecraft Development (NASA In-House) Instrument A Development (Contractor) Instrument B Development (International Activity Definition is the Partner) process of identifying the A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1) tasks which must be System I&T (NASA In-House) performed in order to Integrate Instrument A produce the project’s Integrate Instrument B deliverables and meet it’s objectives. Environmental Testing Launch Site Operations Ground System Development (NASA Center "B") Launch Vehicle Launch © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 11
12.
Activity Sequencing
KDP-C Approval Start: 2/10/11 ID: 1 Spacecraft Development (NASA In-House) Start: 2/10/11 ID: 2 Activity Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Res: Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Res: Sequencing is the process of Instrument A Development (Contractor) A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1) characterizing Start: 2/10/11 ID: 3 Start: 2/10/11 ID: 5 project logic by Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Res: Res: identifying and documenting the Instrument B Development (International Partner) interdependencies between project Start: 2/10/11 ID: 4 Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Res: activities Launch Vehicle Start: 2/10/11 ID: 14 Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Res: System I&T (NASA In-House) Schedule Margin Integrate Instrument A Start: 2/10/11 ID: 6 Start: 2/10/11 ID: 7 Start: 2/10/11 ID: 8 Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Comp: 0% Res: Res: © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 12
13.
Activity Duration Estimating
Activity Description Duration Estimate KDP-C Approval 0d Spacecraft Development (NASA In- House) 600 d Instrument A Development (Contractor) 450 d Activity Duration Instrument B Development Estimating is the (International Partner) 400 d process of determining A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1) 60 d the realistic number of System I&T (NASA In-House) 930 d work periods required Integrate Instrument A 25 d to accomplish each Integrate Instrument B 15 d activity. Environmental Testing 100 d Launch Site Operations 60 d Ground System Development (NASA Center "B") 500 d Launch Vehicle 764 d Launch 0d © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 13
14.
Activity Duration Estimating
Methods Estimating Method Approach Reliability Expert Judgment Estimate is based on the expertise, knowledge or experience of Moderate someone familiar with the activity Analogous Actual duration from a similar activity used as the basis for the Moderate new activity duration Bottoms-Up / Grassroots Decomposition of activities into lower level tasks which are High estimated and then aggregated at higher levels Parametric Duration derived from a arithmetical relationship among variables Moderate-to-High Brainstorming Project team guesses durations based on a combination of Low factors (gut feel, prior experience, historic actuals) Expected Value / Average of activity's most likely, optimistic and pessimistic High 3-Point duration estimates Standards Application Well-established, historically validated durations for routine or High procedurally-based activities or operations © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 14
15.
Schedule Margin Planning ©
Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 15
16.
Schedule Margin Planning
Methods Planning Method Approach % of activity or overall project duration deducted OR added and established as Applied Percentage the schedule reserve Rule-of-thumb based on historic norms (e.g. one month of reserve for each year Fixed Standard between time-now and launch readiness date) Risk-Based Expected Value Calculation of expected value of project risks (probability x impact) 3-Point Duration Estimate Evaluation of tradeoffs among most likely, optimistic, pessimistic and expected Derivation value activity durations Determine reserve based on calculation of expected value of decision alternatives Decision Tree Analysis Difference between project completion date from the Critical Path Method Monte Carlo Analysis calculation and the completion date associated with the desired confidence level based on the Monte Carlo analysis Recommendation from those with expertise or experience appropriate for the Expert Judgment application, discipline or effort © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 16
17.
Schedule Development
Schedule Development is the process of determining the planned start and finish dates for the project’s activities in order to establish the baseline schedule © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 17
18.
Schedule Status Accounting,
Data Maintenance & Updating • Factors to consider for activities include – Status date – Actual start date – Actual finish date – Remaining duration – Physical percentage complete – Estimated completion date of activities underway – Actual duration – Earned Value – Resource updates – Forecast start date, finish date or planned duration for activities that have not started © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 18
19.
What Has Changed
Since We Baselined the Schedule? © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 19
20.
Schedule Analysis and
Assessment 0 - Total Project : Finish Date 100% 18 Oct 10 SCHEDULE ASSESSMENT CHECKLIST 50.0 95% 01 Oct 10 90% 28 Sep 10 85% 26 Sep 10 80% 24 Sep 10 Yes No Criterion Description 40.0 75% 22 Sep 10 70% 20 Sep 10 1. ___ ___ Does the IMS reflect the total scope of work? Cumulative Frequency 65% 19 Sep 10 30.0 60% 18 Sep 10 2. ___ ___ Is the correct WBS element identified for each task 55% 17 Sep 10 and milestone in the IMS? Hits 50% 15 Sep 10 45% 14 Sep 10 40% 12 Sep 10 3. ___ ___ Is the IMS used by all levels of management for 20.0 35% 11 Sep 10 project implementation and control? 30% 09 Sep 10 25% 08 Sep 10 4. ___ ___ Do all tasks/milestones have interdependencies 10.0 20% 06 Sep 10 15% 04 Sep 10 identified to reflect a credible logical sequence? 10% 03 Sep 10 5% 31 Aug 10 5. ___ ___ Are task durations reasonable, measureable, and at 0.0 0% 24 Aug 10 appropriate level of detail for effective management? 24 Aug 10 13 Sep 10 03 Oct 10 Distribution (start of interval) 6. ___ ___ Does the IMS include all contract and/or designated NEW Overall Rating management control milestones? Project Name: Project XYZ 1.4 R Contractor: ACME Engineering 7. ___ ___ Does IMS reflect accurate current status & credible File Type: MS Project Current start/finish forecasts for all to-go tasks and milestones? Schedule Status Current Start (earliest activity Early Start date) 1/1/2005 8. ___ ___ Has the IMS been resource loaded and are assigned Current Finish (latest activity Early Finish date) 3/16/2008 Approximate Remaining Work Days 722 resources reasonable and available? Is schedule externally linked to other schedules? N Status Date 6/15/2005 9. ___ ___ Is the critical path identifiable and determined by the Task & Milestone Count (excl. Summary Tasks) Count % of Total calculated IMS logic network? Total Tasks & Milestones 192 Completed Tasks & Milestones 13 7% 10. ___ ___ Is the critical path credible? To Go Tasks & Milestones 179 93% Logic (excl. Summary & Started/Completed Tasks) 11. ___ ___ Has a Schedule Risk Assessment (SRA) been Tasks & Milestones Without Predecessors 75 42% R Tasks & Milestones Without Successors 73 41% R conducted on the IMS within the last three months? Constraints (other than ASAP) and Deadlines 102 57% R Summaries with Logic Ties ** 1 1% G 12. ___ ___ Has adequate schedule margin been included and Tasks & Milestones Needing Updates 21 12% R clearly defined within the IMS? Actuals after Status Date 2 1% Y Tasks marked as Milestones (have Duration > 0) 0 0% G 13. ___ ___ Has the IMS content been baselined and is it Additional Schedule Information Tasks with No Finish Ties 20 11% adequately controlled? Recurring Tasks 0 0% Tasks & Milestones with Estimated Durations 15 8% 14. ___ ___ Is there an excessive & invalid use of task constraints Schedule traceable to WBS (Y/N) Yes and relationship leads/lags? Realistic Critical Path(s) (Y/N) No Schedule Baselined (Y/N) No Resource Loaded (Y/N) No 15. ___ ___ Are right task & resource calendars used in the IMS? Tasks & Milestones with 10 days or less TF 1 1% Tasks with Total Float > 25% of Rem Dur 148 83% Source: NASA Schedule Management Handbook © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 20
21.
Schedule Performance Reporting
Spacecraft Cumulative Activties 1200 1000 Cumulative Activities 800 600 400 200 0 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 B/L Plan 105 141 197 258 325 416 274 431 515 601 682 758 881 975 1063 1133 Actuals 102 137 161 198 217 238 274 352 387 Late Finish 274 320 359 398 460 541 634 709 774 842 Month/Year © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 21
22.
Schedule Control
Schedule Control is the process of managing the schedule baseline and current IMS in a timely, disciplined manner in response to: a) new work scope b) the need for a new baseline schedule c) recovery from actual or potential schedule problems Schedule control includes taking the appropriate action to get things done and stay on track. Schedule Control Baseline Workaround Management Replanning Revisions Planning Decision-Making New Scope New Baseline Recovery Plan Action © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 22
23.
Let’s Recap Some
Key Points From Today’s Session Free Slack: amount of time an activity can be delayed before impacting the start date of it‟s successor Total Slack: amount of time an activity can be delayed before impacting the project „s completion date Schedule Margin: pre-planned amount of funded schedule reserve to protect against risks/problems Critical Path: path through network with least amount of total slack © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 23
24.
Additional Project Scheduling
Resources © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 24
25.
NASA Schedule Management
Handbook Chapters 1. Introduction 2. Schedule Management Overview 3. Schedule Management Tool Considerations 4. Pre-schedule Development 5. Integrated Master Schedule Development 6. Status Updates & Schedule Maintenance 7. Schedule Assessments and Analysis 8. Schedule Control 9. Schedule Reporting 10. Schedule Data Archival & Lessons Learned Download the NASA Schedule Management Handbook at: http://evm.nasa.gov/handbooks.html © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 25
26.
NASA Planning &
Scheduling Community of Practice © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 26
27.
NASA Planning &
Scheduling Community of Practice • Instructions for joining the P&S CoP are at: – http://pmknowledge.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/PSCoP_Instructions.pdf • For P&S CoP technical assistance contact: – Jennifer Poston – Jennifer.L.Poston@nasa.gov – (301) 286-7492 © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 27
28.
Schedule Training from
the NASA Academy of Program, Project and Engineering Leadership • Understanding Project Scheduling (1 day) • Beyond Scheduling Basics: Analysis, Control & Margin Planning (1 day) • Advanced Earned Value Management Topics: Recognizing EVM and Scheduling Gaming, Abuse and Data Manipulation (1 day) • Assessing Project Performance (2 days) • Training schedule http://pmknowledge.gsfc.nasa.gov/scheduletrain.htm © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 28
29.
Thank you !
Walt Majerowicz, MBA, PMP Management Consultant ASRC Aerospace Corporation walt.majerowicz@nasa.gov walt.majerowicz@gmail.com 301-286-5622 © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 29
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