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National Aeronautics and Space Administration




                   Introduction to Project Scheduling

                                   NASA PM Challenge 2011
                                        Long Beach California
                                         February 9-10, 2011



                                       Walt Majerowicz, MBA, PMP
                                       ASRC Aerospace Corporation




                                                Used with permission
Purpose of Today’s Presentation




                  The purpose to today’s session is to provide a basic overview
                  of project scheduling.




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                             2
Agenda

       • NASA Project Scheduling Perspectives

       • Project Scheduling Processes

       • Additional Project Scheduling Resources




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010              3
NASA Project Scheduling Perspectives




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                               4
NASA Projects Are Large, Expensive and Complex




                                        NASA spends
                                        approximately 85
                                        percent of its budget
                                        on procurements,
                                        while other project
                                        work is performed
                                        “in-house” at NASA
                                        facilities


© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                           5
NASA Project Life Cycle Simplified

                                FORMULATION                                   IMPLEMENTATION

 Project                Pre-A              A               B              C                D               E                 F
                      Concept        Concept &         Preliminary   Final             Sys.            Ops. &            Closeout
                                     Technology
 Phases               Studies
                                     Development
                                                       Design &      Design &          Assembly,       Sustainment
                                                       Tech. Comp.   Fabrication       Test, &
                                                                                       Launch

                                 A                 B             C                 D               E                 F
 Key Decision
 Points
                                        Mission Concept Review

                                               Systems Requirements Review
 Major                                                 Mission Definition Review (or System Definition Review)
 Reviews                                                             Preliminary Design Review
                                                                              Critical Design Review
                                                                                       Systems Integration Review
                                                                                               Operational Readiness Review
                                                                                                         Flight Readiness Review

                                                                                                          Post Launch Assessment
                                                                                                          Review
                                                                                                                              Decommissioning
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                                                                            Review         6
NPR 7120.5 Project Schedule Requirements

                           Project Phase                          Schedule Requirement
       Pre-Phase A                                        Draft Management Baseline that includes
                                                          “a schedule”
       Phase A                                            Preliminary Project Plan that includes the
                                                          “schedule baseline” / Integrated Master
                                                          Schedule
       Phase B                                            Approved Project Plan that includes
                                                          schedule baseline / Integrated Master
                                                          Schedule
       Phase C/D                                          - Maintain a schedule baseline based on
                                                          an approved joint cost and schedule
                                                          confidence level
                                                          - Notice and recovery plan if C/D phase life
                                                          cycle milestone is estimated to be delayed
                                                          6 months or more
       Formulation / Implementation                       Schedule margin . . . based on
                                                          assessments of risks

                                        SOURCE: NM 7120-81: NID for 7120.5D

© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                                                    7
Integrated Master Schedule


       Integrated Master Schedule
                   “An integrated set of schedule data that reflects the total
                   project scope of work as discrete and measurable
                   tasks/milestones that are time-phased through the use of task
                   durations, interdependencies, and date constraints and is
                   traceable to the WBS.”




                                                       SOURCE: NM 7120-81: NID for 7120.5D




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                                        8
Project Scheduling Processes




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                  9
Project Scheduling Processes

                                Process                          Primary Output
       Activity Definition                            Task listing of project work scope
       Activity Sequencing                            Project logic / activity dependencies
       Activity Duration Estimating                   Approximation of working time (e.g.
                                                      days) to accomplish each activity
       Schedule Margin Planning                       Funded schedule allowance to
                                                      account for risk and uncertainty
       Schedule Development                           Schedule baseline / Integrated Master
                                                      Schedule
       Schedule Status Accounting, Data               Current schedule (actual progress +
       Maintenance & Updating                         forecast to complete)
       Schedule Analysis & Assessment                 Insight and understanding
       Schedule Performance Reporting                 Results, metrics and trends
       Schedule Control                               Revisions, replans/rebaselines,
                                                      management decisions

© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                                         10
Activity Definition

                   Activity Description
       KDP-C Approval
       Spacecraft Development (NASA In-House)
       Instrument A Development (Contractor)
       Instrument B Development (International
                                                      Activity Definition is the
       Partner)
                                                      process of identifying the
       A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1)          tasks which must be
       System I&T (NASA In-House)                     performed in order to
       Integrate Instrument A                         produce the project’s
       Integrate Instrument B                         deliverables and meet it’s
                                                      objectives.
       Environmental Testing
       Launch Site Operations
       Ground System Development (NASA
       Center "B")
       Launch Vehicle
       Launch

© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                              11
Activity Sequencing

                KDP-C Approval
                Start: 2/10/11 ID: 1
                                             Spacecraft Development (NASA In-House)
                                             Start: 2/10/11 ID: 2
                                                                                                                                   Activity
                Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d
                Res:
                                             Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d
                                             Res:
                                                                                                                                   Sequencing is the
                                                                                                                                   process of
                                             Instrument A Development (Contractor)         A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1)
                                                                                                                                   characterizing
                                             Start: 2/10/11 ID: 3                          Start: 2/10/11 ID: 5                    project logic by
                                             Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d                      Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d
                                             Res:                                          Res:                                    identifying and
                                                                                                                                   documenting the
                                             Instrument B Development (International Partner)                                      interdependencies
                                                                                                                                   between project
                                             Start: 2/10/11 ID: 4
                                             Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d
                                             Res:
                                                                                                                                   activities

                                             Launch Vehicle
                                             Start: 2/10/11 ID: 14
                                             Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d
                                             Res:




                System I&T (NASA In-House)                                                 Schedule Margin                            Integrate Instrument A
                Start: 2/10/11 ID: 6                                                       Start: 2/10/11 ID: 7                       Start: 2/10/11 ID: 8
                Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d                                                   Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d                   Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d
                Comp: 0%                                                                   Res:                                       Res:




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                                                                                                            12
Activity Duration Estimating

                 Activity Description             Duration Estimate
       KDP-C Approval                                    0d
       Spacecraft Development (NASA In-
       House)                                           600 d
       Instrument A Development
       (Contractor)                                     450 d         Activity Duration
       Instrument B Development                                       Estimating is the
       (International Partner)                          400 d
                                                                      process of determining
       A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1)            60 d          the realistic number of
       System I&T (NASA In-House)                       930 d         work periods required
       Integrate Instrument A                           25 d          to accomplish each
       Integrate Instrument B                           15 d          activity.
       Environmental Testing                            100 d
       Launch Site Operations                           60 d
       Ground System Development (NASA
       Center "B")                                      500 d
       Launch Vehicle                                   764 d
       Launch                                            0d
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                                           13
Activity Duration Estimating Methods



           Estimating Method                                         Approach                                      Reliability

       Expert Judgment                  Estimate is based on the expertise, knowledge or experience of      Moderate
                                        someone familiar with the activity

       Analogous                        Actual duration from a similar activity used as the basis for the   Moderate
                                        new activity duration

       Bottoms-Up / Grassroots          Decomposition of activities into lower level tasks which are        High
                                        estimated and then aggregated at higher levels

       Parametric                       Duration derived from a arithmetical relationship among variables   Moderate-to-High


       Brainstorming                    Project team guesses durations based on a combination of            Low
                                        factors (gut feel, prior experience, historic actuals)

       Expected Value /                 Average of activity's most likely, optimistic and pessimistic       High
       3-Point                          duration estimates

       Standards Application            Well-established, historically validated durations for routine or   High
                                        procedurally-based activities or operations



© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                                                                            14
Schedule Margin Planning




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                              15
Schedule Margin Planning Methods



               Planning Method                                             Approach

                                        % of activity or overall project duration deducted OR added and established as
              Applied Percentage         the schedule reserve

                                        Rule-of-thumb based on historic norms (e.g. one month of reserve for each year
                Fixed Standard           between time-now and launch readiness date)


         Risk-Based Expected Value      Calculation of expected value of project risks (probability x impact)

          3-Point Duration Estimate     Evaluation of tradeoffs among most likely, optimistic, pessimistic and expected
                    Derivation           value activity durations

                                        Determine reserve based on calculation of expected value of decision alternatives
            Decision Tree Analysis

                                        Difference between project completion date from the Critical Path Method
             Monte Carlo Analysis        calculation and the completion date associated with the desired confidence level
                                         based on the Monte Carlo analysis

                                        Recommendation from those with expertise or experience appropriate for the
               Expert Judgment           application, discipline or effort




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                                                                       16
Schedule Development



                                                               Schedule Development
                                                               is the process of
                                                               determining the
                                                               planned start and finish
                                                               dates for the project’s
                                                               activities in order to
                                                               establish the baseline
                                                               schedule




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                                     17
Schedule Status Accounting, Data
                               Maintenance & Updating

       • Factors to consider for activities
         include
               –   Status date
               –   Actual start date
               –   Actual finish date
               –   Remaining duration
               –   Physical percentage complete
               –   Estimated completion date of activities
                   underway
               –   Actual duration
               –   Earned Value
               –   Resource updates
               –   Forecast start date, finish date or
                   planned duration for activities that
                   have not started
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                         18
What Has Changed Since We Baselined the Schedule?




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                      19
Schedule Analysis and Assessment

                                     0 - Total Project : Finish Date
                                                                                             100% 18 Oct 10
                                                                                                                                                      SCHEDULE ASSESSMENT CHECKLIST
                      50.0
                                                                                             95% 01 Oct 10
                                                                                             90% 28 Sep 10
                                                                                             85% 26 Sep 10
                                                                                             80% 24 Sep 10                                     Yes   No               Criterion Description
                      40.0
                                                                                             75% 22 Sep 10
                                                                                             70% 20 Sep 10                                1.   ___ ___    Does the IMS reflect the total scope of work?




                                                                                                                   Cumulative Frequency
                                                                                             65% 19 Sep 10

                      30.0
                                                                                             60% 18 Sep 10                                2.   ___ ___    Is the correct WBS element identified for each task
                                                                                             55% 17 Sep 10
                                                                                                                                                          and milestone in the IMS?
               Hits




                                                                                             50% 15 Sep 10
                                                                                             45% 14 Sep 10
                                                                                             40% 12 Sep 10
                                                                                                                                          3.   ___ ___    Is the IMS used by all levels of management for
                      20.0
                                                                                             35% 11 Sep 10                                                project implementation and control?
                                                                                             30% 09 Sep 10
                                                                                             25% 08 Sep 10                                4.   ___ ___    Do all tasks/milestones have interdependencies
                      10.0                                                                   20% 06 Sep 10
                                                                                             15% 04 Sep 10
                                                                                                                                                          identified to reflect a credible logical sequence?
                                                                                             10% 03 Sep 10
                                                                                             5% 31 Aug 10
                                                                                                                                          5.   ___ ___    Are task durations reasonable, measureable, and at
                       0.0                                                                   0% 24 Aug 10                                                 appropriate level of detail for effective management?
                       24 Aug 10             13 Sep 10              03 Oct 10
                                      Distribution (start of interval)                                                                    6.   ___ ___    Does the IMS include all contract and/or designated
                                                                              NEW       Overall Rating
                                                                                                                                                          management control milestones?
                        Project Name:         Project XYZ                                                1.4 R
                       Contractor: ACME Engineering                                                                                       7.   ___ ___    Does IMS reflect accurate current status & credible
                        File Type:           MS Project                                  Current                                                          start/finish forecasts for all to-go tasks and milestones?
                       Schedule Status
                         Current Start (earliest activity Early Start date)                         1/1/2005                              8.   ___ ___    Has the IMS been resource loaded and are assigned
                         Current Finish (latest activity Early Finish date)                        3/16/2008
                         Approximate Remaining Work Days                                                 722
                                                                                                                                                          resources reasonable and available?
                         Is schedule externally linked to other schedules?                                 N
                         Status Date                                                               6/15/2005                              9.   ___ ___    Is the critical path identifiable and determined by the
                       Task & Milestone Count (excl. Summary Tasks)             Count        % of Total                                                   calculated IMS logic network?
                         Total Tasks & Milestones                                192
                         Completed Tasks & Milestones                             13            7%                                        10. ___ ___     Is the critical path credible?
                         To Go Tasks & Milestones                                179            93%
                       Logic (excl. Summary & Started/Completed Tasks)                                                                    11. ___ ___     Has a Schedule Risk Assessment (SRA) been
                         Tasks & Milestones Without Predecessors                  75            42%            R
                         Tasks & Milestones Without Successors                    73            41%            R                                          conducted on the IMS within the last three months?
                         Constraints (other than ASAP) and Deadlines             102            57%            R
                       Summaries with Logic Ties **                               1             1%             G                          12. ___ ___     Has adequate schedule margin been included and
                       Tasks & Milestones Needing Updates                         21            12%            R                                          clearly defined within the IMS?
                       Actuals after Status Date                                  2             1%             Y
                       Tasks marked as Milestones (have Duration > 0)             0             0%             G
                                                                                                                                          13. ___ ___     Has the IMS content been baselined and is it
                       Additional Schedule Information
                        Tasks with No Finish Ties                                 20            11%                                                       adequately controlled?
                        Recurring Tasks                                           0             0%
                        Tasks & Milestones with Estimated Durations               15            8%                                        14. ___ ___     Is there an excessive & invalid use of task constraints
                        Schedule traceable to WBS (Y/N)                          Yes
                                                                                                                                                          and relationship leads/lags?
                        Realistic Critical Path(s) (Y/N)                         No
                        Schedule Baselined (Y/N)                                 No
                        Resource Loaded (Y/N)                                    No                                                       15. ___ ___     Are right task & resource calendars used in the IMS?
                        Tasks & Milestones with 10 days or less TF                1             1%
                        Tasks with Total Float > 25% of Rem Dur                  148            83%
                                                                                                                                                     Source: NASA Schedule Management Handbook
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                                                                                                                                                                  20
Schedule Performance Reporting




                                                                                                                             Spacecraft Cumulative Activties

                                                                                  1200


                                                                                  1000




                                                       Cumulative Activities
                                                                                   800


                                                                                   600


                                                                                   400


                                                                                   200


                                                                                         0
                                                                                             Sep-08   Oct-08   Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09   Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09   Jul-09   Aug-09 Sep-09   Oct-09   Nov-09 Dec-09

                                                                                             Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09
                                                                               B/L Plan       105      141      197    258    325    416    274      431    515    601      682      758    881      975     1063    1133
                                                                               Actuals        102      137      161    198    217    238    274      352    387
                                                                               Late Finish                                                  274      320    359    398      460      541    634      709      774    842

                                                                                                                                                    Month/Year




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                                                                                                                                                                        21
Schedule Control


         Schedule Control is the process of managing the schedule
         baseline and current IMS in a timely, disciplined manner in
         response to:
         a) new work scope
         b) the need for a new baseline schedule
         c) recovery from actual or potential schedule problems
                    Schedule control includes taking the appropriate action to get
                       things done and stay on track.

                                                  Schedule
                                                   Control



         Baseline                                        Workaround         Management
                                        Replanning
         Revisions                                        Planning         Decision-Making
        New Scope                       New Baseline    Recovery Plan            Action

© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                                        22
Let’s Recap Some Key Points From Today’s Session

                                                    Free Slack: amount of time
                                                     an activity can be delayed
                                                     before impacting the start
                                                       date of it‟s successor

                                                      Total Slack: amount of
                                                       time an activity can be
                                                     delayed before impacting
                                                     the project „s completion
                                                                date

                                                            Schedule Margin:
                                                                pre-planned
                                                            amount of funded
                                                             schedule reserve
                                                            to protect against
                                                              risks/problems


                                                                Critical Path:
                                                                 path through
                                                                 network with
                                                               least amount of
                                                                  total slack




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                             23
Additional Project Scheduling Resources




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                               24
NASA Schedule Management Handbook


                                                                        Chapters
                                                       1. Introduction
                                                       2. Schedule Management Overview
                                                       3. Schedule Management Tool
                                                           Considerations
                                                       4. Pre-schedule Development
                                                       5. Integrated Master Schedule
                                                           Development
                                                       6. Status Updates & Schedule
                                                           Maintenance
                                                       7. Schedule Assessments and Analysis
                                                       8. Schedule Control
                                                       9. Schedule Reporting
                                                       10. Schedule Data Archival & Lessons
                                                           Learned


        Download the NASA Schedule Management Handbook at: http://evm.nasa.gov/handbooks.html
© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                                           25
NASA Planning & Scheduling Community of Practice




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                        26
NASA Planning & Scheduling Community of Practice


       • Instructions for joining the P&S CoP are at:
               – http://pmknowledge.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/PSCoP_Instructions.pdf


       • For P&S CoP technical assistance contact:
               – Jennifer Poston
               – Jennifer.L.Poston@nasa.gov
               – (301) 286-7492




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                           27
Schedule Training from the NASA Academy of
                    Program, Project and Engineering Leadership

       • Understanding Project Scheduling (1 day)

       • Beyond Scheduling Basics: Analysis, Control & Margin Planning (1
         day)

       • Advanced Earned Value Management Topics: Recognizing EVM and
         Scheduling Gaming, Abuse and Data Manipulation (1 day)

       • Assessing Project Performance (2 days)

       • Training schedule
         http://pmknowledge.gsfc.nasa.gov/scheduletrain.htm




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                       28
Thank you !




                                        Walt Majerowicz, MBA, PMP
                                          Management Consultant
                                        ASRC Aerospace Corporation
                                         walt.majerowicz@nasa.gov
                                        walt.majerowicz@gmail.com
                                               301-286-5622




© Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010                                29

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Majerowicz

  • 1. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Introduction to Project Scheduling NASA PM Challenge 2011 Long Beach California February 9-10, 2011 Walt Majerowicz, MBA, PMP ASRC Aerospace Corporation Used with permission
  • 2. Purpose of Today’s Presentation The purpose to today’s session is to provide a basic overview of project scheduling. © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 2
  • 3. Agenda • NASA Project Scheduling Perspectives • Project Scheduling Processes • Additional Project Scheduling Resources © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 3
  • 4. NASA Project Scheduling Perspectives © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 4
  • 5. NASA Projects Are Large, Expensive and Complex NASA spends approximately 85 percent of its budget on procurements, while other project work is performed “in-house” at NASA facilities © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 5
  • 6. NASA Project Life Cycle Simplified FORMULATION IMPLEMENTATION Project Pre-A A B C D E F Concept Concept & Preliminary Final Sys. Ops. & Closeout Technology Phases Studies Development Design & Design & Assembly, Sustainment Tech. Comp. Fabrication Test, & Launch A B C D E F Key Decision Points Mission Concept Review Systems Requirements Review Major Mission Definition Review (or System Definition Review) Reviews Preliminary Design Review Critical Design Review Systems Integration Review Operational Readiness Review Flight Readiness Review Post Launch Assessment Review Decommissioning © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 Review 6
  • 7. NPR 7120.5 Project Schedule Requirements Project Phase Schedule Requirement Pre-Phase A Draft Management Baseline that includes “a schedule” Phase A Preliminary Project Plan that includes the “schedule baseline” / Integrated Master Schedule Phase B Approved Project Plan that includes schedule baseline / Integrated Master Schedule Phase C/D - Maintain a schedule baseline based on an approved joint cost and schedule confidence level - Notice and recovery plan if C/D phase life cycle milestone is estimated to be delayed 6 months or more Formulation / Implementation Schedule margin . . . based on assessments of risks SOURCE: NM 7120-81: NID for 7120.5D © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 7
  • 8. Integrated Master Schedule Integrated Master Schedule “An integrated set of schedule data that reflects the total project scope of work as discrete and measurable tasks/milestones that are time-phased through the use of task durations, interdependencies, and date constraints and is traceable to the WBS.” SOURCE: NM 7120-81: NID for 7120.5D © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 8
  • 9. Project Scheduling Processes © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 9
  • 10. Project Scheduling Processes Process Primary Output Activity Definition Task listing of project work scope Activity Sequencing Project logic / activity dependencies Activity Duration Estimating Approximation of working time (e.g. days) to accomplish each activity Schedule Margin Planning Funded schedule allowance to account for risk and uncertainty Schedule Development Schedule baseline / Integrated Master Schedule Schedule Status Accounting, Data Current schedule (actual progress + Maintenance & Updating forecast to complete) Schedule Analysis & Assessment Insight and understanding Schedule Performance Reporting Results, metrics and trends Schedule Control Revisions, replans/rebaselines, management decisions © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 10
  • 11. Activity Definition Activity Description KDP-C Approval Spacecraft Development (NASA In-House) Instrument A Development (Contractor) Instrument B Development (International Activity Definition is the Partner) process of identifying the A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1) tasks which must be System I&T (NASA In-House) performed in order to Integrate Instrument A produce the project’s Integrate Instrument B deliverables and meet it’s objectives. Environmental Testing Launch Site Operations Ground System Development (NASA Center "B") Launch Vehicle Launch © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 11
  • 12. Activity Sequencing KDP-C Approval Start: 2/10/11 ID: 1 Spacecraft Development (NASA In-House) Start: 2/10/11 ID: 2 Activity Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Res: Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Res: Sequencing is the process of Instrument A Development (Contractor) A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1) characterizing Start: 2/10/11 ID: 3 Start: 2/10/11 ID: 5 project logic by Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Res: Res: identifying and documenting the Instrument B Development (International Partner) interdependencies between project Start: 2/10/11 ID: 4 Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Res: activities Launch Vehicle Start: 2/10/11 ID: 14 Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Res: System I&T (NASA In-House) Schedule Margin Integrate Instrument A Start: 2/10/11 ID: 6 Start: 2/10/11 ID: 7 Start: 2/10/11 ID: 8 Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Finish: 2/10/11 Dur: 0 d Comp: 0% Res: Res: © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 12
  • 13. Activity Duration Estimating Activity Description Duration Estimate KDP-C Approval 0d Spacecraft Development (NASA In- House) 600 d Instrument A Development (Contractor) 450 d Activity Duration Instrument B Development Estimating is the (International Partner) 400 d process of determining A-B Compatibility Test (at Partner 1) 60 d the realistic number of System I&T (NASA In-House) 930 d work periods required Integrate Instrument A 25 d to accomplish each Integrate Instrument B 15 d activity. Environmental Testing 100 d Launch Site Operations 60 d Ground System Development (NASA Center "B") 500 d Launch Vehicle 764 d Launch 0d © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 13
  • 14. Activity Duration Estimating Methods Estimating Method Approach Reliability Expert Judgment Estimate is based on the expertise, knowledge or experience of Moderate someone familiar with the activity Analogous Actual duration from a similar activity used as the basis for the Moderate new activity duration Bottoms-Up / Grassroots Decomposition of activities into lower level tasks which are High estimated and then aggregated at higher levels Parametric Duration derived from a arithmetical relationship among variables Moderate-to-High Brainstorming Project team guesses durations based on a combination of Low factors (gut feel, prior experience, historic actuals) Expected Value / Average of activity's most likely, optimistic and pessimistic High 3-Point duration estimates Standards Application Well-established, historically validated durations for routine or High procedurally-based activities or operations © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 14
  • 15. Schedule Margin Planning © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 15
  • 16. Schedule Margin Planning Methods Planning Method Approach % of activity or overall project duration deducted OR added and established as Applied Percentage the schedule reserve Rule-of-thumb based on historic norms (e.g. one month of reserve for each year Fixed Standard between time-now and launch readiness date) Risk-Based Expected Value Calculation of expected value of project risks (probability x impact) 3-Point Duration Estimate Evaluation of tradeoffs among most likely, optimistic, pessimistic and expected Derivation value activity durations Determine reserve based on calculation of expected value of decision alternatives Decision Tree Analysis Difference between project completion date from the Critical Path Method Monte Carlo Analysis calculation and the completion date associated with the desired confidence level based on the Monte Carlo analysis Recommendation from those with expertise or experience appropriate for the Expert Judgment application, discipline or effort © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 16
  • 17. Schedule Development Schedule Development is the process of determining the planned start and finish dates for the project’s activities in order to establish the baseline schedule © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 17
  • 18. Schedule Status Accounting, Data Maintenance & Updating • Factors to consider for activities include – Status date – Actual start date – Actual finish date – Remaining duration – Physical percentage complete – Estimated completion date of activities underway – Actual duration – Earned Value – Resource updates – Forecast start date, finish date or planned duration for activities that have not started © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 18
  • 19. What Has Changed Since We Baselined the Schedule? © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 19
  • 20. Schedule Analysis and Assessment 0 - Total Project : Finish Date 100% 18 Oct 10 SCHEDULE ASSESSMENT CHECKLIST 50.0 95% 01 Oct 10 90% 28 Sep 10 85% 26 Sep 10 80% 24 Sep 10 Yes No Criterion Description 40.0 75% 22 Sep 10 70% 20 Sep 10 1. ___ ___ Does the IMS reflect the total scope of work? Cumulative Frequency 65% 19 Sep 10 30.0 60% 18 Sep 10 2. ___ ___ Is the correct WBS element identified for each task 55% 17 Sep 10 and milestone in the IMS? Hits 50% 15 Sep 10 45% 14 Sep 10 40% 12 Sep 10 3. ___ ___ Is the IMS used by all levels of management for 20.0 35% 11 Sep 10 project implementation and control? 30% 09 Sep 10 25% 08 Sep 10 4. ___ ___ Do all tasks/milestones have interdependencies 10.0 20% 06 Sep 10 15% 04 Sep 10 identified to reflect a credible logical sequence? 10% 03 Sep 10 5% 31 Aug 10 5. ___ ___ Are task durations reasonable, measureable, and at 0.0 0% 24 Aug 10 appropriate level of detail for effective management? 24 Aug 10 13 Sep 10 03 Oct 10 Distribution (start of interval) 6. ___ ___ Does the IMS include all contract and/or designated NEW Overall Rating management control milestones? Project Name: Project XYZ 1.4 R Contractor: ACME Engineering 7. ___ ___ Does IMS reflect accurate current status & credible File Type: MS Project Current start/finish forecasts for all to-go tasks and milestones? Schedule Status Current Start (earliest activity Early Start date) 1/1/2005 8. ___ ___ Has the IMS been resource loaded and are assigned Current Finish (latest activity Early Finish date) 3/16/2008 Approximate Remaining Work Days 722 resources reasonable and available? Is schedule externally linked to other schedules? N Status Date 6/15/2005 9. ___ ___ Is the critical path identifiable and determined by the Task & Milestone Count (excl. Summary Tasks) Count % of Total calculated IMS logic network? Total Tasks & Milestones 192 Completed Tasks & Milestones 13 7% 10. ___ ___ Is the critical path credible? To Go Tasks & Milestones 179 93% Logic (excl. Summary & Started/Completed Tasks) 11. ___ ___ Has a Schedule Risk Assessment (SRA) been Tasks & Milestones Without Predecessors 75 42% R Tasks & Milestones Without Successors 73 41% R conducted on the IMS within the last three months? Constraints (other than ASAP) and Deadlines 102 57% R Summaries with Logic Ties ** 1 1% G 12. ___ ___ Has adequate schedule margin been included and Tasks & Milestones Needing Updates 21 12% R clearly defined within the IMS? Actuals after Status Date 2 1% Y Tasks marked as Milestones (have Duration > 0) 0 0% G 13. ___ ___ Has the IMS content been baselined and is it Additional Schedule Information Tasks with No Finish Ties 20 11% adequately controlled? Recurring Tasks 0 0% Tasks & Milestones with Estimated Durations 15 8% 14. ___ ___ Is there an excessive & invalid use of task constraints Schedule traceable to WBS (Y/N) Yes and relationship leads/lags? Realistic Critical Path(s) (Y/N) No Schedule Baselined (Y/N) No Resource Loaded (Y/N) No 15. ___ ___ Are right task & resource calendars used in the IMS? Tasks & Milestones with 10 days or less TF 1 1% Tasks with Total Float > 25% of Rem Dur 148 83% Source: NASA Schedule Management Handbook © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 20
  • 21. Schedule Performance Reporting Spacecraft Cumulative Activties 1200 1000 Cumulative Activities 800 600 400 200 0 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 B/L Plan 105 141 197 258 325 416 274 431 515 601 682 758 881 975 1063 1133 Actuals 102 137 161 198 217 238 274 352 387 Late Finish 274 320 359 398 460 541 634 709 774 842 Month/Year © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 21
  • 22. Schedule Control Schedule Control is the process of managing the schedule baseline and current IMS in a timely, disciplined manner in response to: a) new work scope b) the need for a new baseline schedule c) recovery from actual or potential schedule problems Schedule control includes taking the appropriate action to get things done and stay on track. Schedule Control Baseline Workaround Management Replanning Revisions Planning Decision-Making New Scope New Baseline Recovery Plan Action © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 22
  • 23. Let’s Recap Some Key Points From Today’s Session Free Slack: amount of time an activity can be delayed before impacting the start date of it‟s successor Total Slack: amount of time an activity can be delayed before impacting the project „s completion date Schedule Margin: pre-planned amount of funded schedule reserve to protect against risks/problems Critical Path: path through network with least amount of total slack © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 23
  • 24. Additional Project Scheduling Resources © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 24
  • 25. NASA Schedule Management Handbook Chapters 1. Introduction 2. Schedule Management Overview 3. Schedule Management Tool Considerations 4. Pre-schedule Development 5. Integrated Master Schedule Development 6. Status Updates & Schedule Maintenance 7. Schedule Assessments and Analysis 8. Schedule Control 9. Schedule Reporting 10. Schedule Data Archival & Lessons Learned Download the NASA Schedule Management Handbook at: http://evm.nasa.gov/handbooks.html © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 25
  • 26. NASA Planning & Scheduling Community of Practice © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 26
  • 27. NASA Planning & Scheduling Community of Practice • Instructions for joining the P&S CoP are at: – http://pmknowledge.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/PSCoP_Instructions.pdf • For P&S CoP technical assistance contact: – Jennifer Poston – Jennifer.L.Poston@nasa.gov – (301) 286-7492 © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 27
  • 28. Schedule Training from the NASA Academy of Program, Project and Engineering Leadership • Understanding Project Scheduling (1 day) • Beyond Scheduling Basics: Analysis, Control & Margin Planning (1 day) • Advanced Earned Value Management Topics: Recognizing EVM and Scheduling Gaming, Abuse and Data Manipulation (1 day) • Assessing Project Performance (2 days) • Training schedule http://pmknowledge.gsfc.nasa.gov/scheduletrain.htm © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 28
  • 29. Thank you ! Walt Majerowicz, MBA, PMP Management Consultant ASRC Aerospace Corporation walt.majerowicz@nasa.gov walt.majerowicz@gmail.com 301-286-5622 © Copyright by Walter Majerowicz 2010 29