The document summarizes a World Energy Council report on energy scenarios to 2050. It discusses the goals of accessibility, availability, and acceptability of energy. Four scenarios are presented based on government engagement and international cooperation: Energy Nationalism, Energy Globalism, Laissez-faire, and Market Enterprise. Key messages are that global energy supply must double by 2050, reducing energy poverty in developing countries will be a priority over reducing greenhouse gases, and public-private partnerships are needed. The document also discusses energy trends in Asia, opportunities in New Zealand, and a potential technology package combining coal, biomass and renewable energy.

1. World Energy Council Scenarios Project: An International Perspective 1

3. WEC Goals The Three ‘A’s

4. WEC Energy Policy Scenarios 2050 (2007)

5. IEA Blue Map Scenario

6. How to get to 450ppm (2010)

7. WC Energy Scenarios 2050

8. Key Drivers

9. China, India and Africa

10. New Technologies

11. New Zealand, the lucky country for Energy Resources

12. CRL Energy Technology Package

14. WEC Millennium Goals (3 A’s) ACCESSIBILITY:access to affordable modern energy for all people AVAILABILITY: reliable and secure energy supply ACCEPTABILITY: protect and preserve the local and global environment

15. WEC Energy Policy Scenarios 2050 (2007) Bottom up semi-quantitative “group analysis” Scenarios based on 5 regional studies and 7 specialist groups. GOAL to understand possible energy futures to 2050 identifying the role that policy actions could play to help or hinder the achievement of the WEC 3As and hence energy, economic, environmental and social sustainability Modelling used to provided a consistency check on the Scenarios. 67 MC Countries 398 individual participants

16. Highgovernment engagement HG-LC Energy Nationalism Scenario HG-HC Energy Globalism Scenario LG-LC Laissez-faire Scenario LG-HC Market Enterprise Scenario Lowgovernment engagement High integration/ co-operation Lowintegration/ co-operation Policy Scenarios Elephant Lion Leopard Giraffe

17. Accessibility Low Moderate Good Leopard Elephant Giraffe Lion Asia Africa Europe North America Latin America

18. Availability Low Moderate Good Leopard Elephant Giraffe Lion Asia Africa Europe North America Latin America

19. Acceptability Low Moderate Good Leopard Elephant Giraffe Lion Asia Africa Europe North America Latin America

21. The world has sufficient resources, the challenge is to get them from where they are needed most.

22. Reducing energy poverty in developing countries will be priority over reducing greenhouse gases

23. Public and the private sectors need to work together

25. Demand-side mobilisation.

26. Transport transformation with emphasis on acceptability.

27. Risk management and fiscal consistency.

28. Protection and preservation of property rights (both physical and intellectual).

30. Tanaka

32. Global, qualitative and descriptive picture of key issues and driving forces in the energy landscape

33. Provide regional insights for public discussion

34. Open sourceenergy models transparent assumptions

35. Early Deliverables will include papers on the impact of Fukishima and MENA

37. Most provide a strong top-down perspective from experts

41. As Asia’s economic growth continues at high levels and the as GDP per capita gap with the OECD closes (China closing from 20% in 2005 to 60% of the OECD-NA in 2050), how much pressure would this have on energy demand?

43. India

44. 457million under 15 year olds (compare this with China’s 344 million)

45. 400 million with no electricity

46. 600 million cook with wood or dung

47. 900 million have no refrigeration

48. China

49. Will get old before it gets rich

50. Will drive technology solutions

51. Then there is Africa

52. Africa is not short of energy! Energy Poverty China India and Africa

53. 18 China becomes leading user of energy Published: June 8 2011 18:20 Financial Times China overtook the US as the world’s largest consumer of energy last year, during which global consumption growth was at its highest rate since 1973, according to the BP statistical review of world energy……. ……China became the largest wind-power generator, overtaking the US and accounting for about 48 per cent of all new capacity. Frank Clemente Professor of Social Science and Energy Policy Penn State University from Clean Coal Technology 2011

54. 19 New Zealand Energy Resources NZ has 10 times more coal per capita than the average for the rest of the world. 9 billion tonnereserve Woody Biomass Resources50% of transport fuel needs by 2050 70% renewable electricity Government aim to achieve 90% Wind energy resource extensive Located in “Roaring Forties” Long coastline double advantage = predominately westerly winds and sea breezes Over 500 MW of installed wind capacity and over 1,000 MW consented

55. 20 A Technology Package Utilizing Coal, Biomass and Intermittent Renewable Energy Co-gasification of biomass with coal Achieve economies of scale Increase efficiency of biomass gasification Reduce tar production Integrating electrolysis Energy storage balancing intermittent renewables Improve gas stream Reduce water-gas shift costs Key issues Accessing cheap intermittent renewable electricity Reducing electrolyser capital costs and increasing efficiency Carbon Content Implications Reduced carbon footprint of coal projects With CSS either lower cost of zero emissions or negative emission

56. 21 tar removal system heat exchanger cyclone Bypass line lock hopper feed venturi scrubber gasifier1000oC existing systems flare LPG pre-heater - counter flow caustic wash - WGS reactor - H2 separation membrane systems gas pre-heater H2 electrolyser steam air N2 O2 Schematic of New Technology Package Fluidized Bed O2 Blown Gasifier Biomass capability (50%) Modular design 50kw unit Ambient pressure system Syngas quality > 20% H2 O2 and H2 from electrolyser stack

57. 22 Syngas Routes

58. Conclusions Global energy supplies will have to double before 2050 The world has sufficient resources, the challenge is to get them from where they are needed most. Reducing energy poverty in developing countries will be priority over reducing greenhouse gases New Zealand is a lucky country as far as energy resources are concerned. CRL Energy IRL Technology package combines strengths and reduces weakness of coal, bioenergy and intermittent renewable electricity. 23