Presentation to the Vermont Forestry Outreach and Education Initiative

1. Adapting Forests to Climate Change
Maria Janowiak
March 29, 2017
Vermont Agency of Natural Resources
webinar series

2. Desired
ConditionsNatural Forest
Dynamics
Wildlife
Habitat
Past
Management
History
Invasives Timber Sale
Revenue
Disturbance:
Past + Future
Recreation
Forest
Health
And more!!
Climate
Change
Plan & Project
Requirements

3. Partnerships
Vulnerability Assessment
Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Demonstrations
Climate Change Response Framework
Components: Progress:
125+ partner organizations
(and counting)
8 published assessments,
1 in prep
Published in 2012,
2nd edition in 2016,
& online workbook
200+ demonstrations
underway
Structured, process oriented, works on multiple scales
www.forestadaptation.org

4. www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
Vulnerability Assessment
• Series of reports for natural
resource professionals
• Focus on tree species and
forest ecosystems
• Examine a range of future
climates
• Evaluate key ecosystem
vulnerabilities to climate
change
• Does not make
recommendations or assess
vulnerability to changes in
mgmt., land use, policy

5. New England & Northern New York
• Synthesize existing literature and climate change
assessments
• Incorporate new results from models projecting
forest response to climate change
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment

6. Vulnerability Assessment Contents
• Current Forest Condition
• Observed Climate
Change
• Future Climate Change
• Climate Change Impacts
on Forests
• Forest Ecosystem
Vulnerability
• Implications for Forest
Management
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
Climate Change Tree Atlas: suitable habitat
LINKAGES: species establishment
LANDIS: productivity and composition

7. Generally Challenges
• Reduced growth:
moisture stress
• Decline of
northern/boreal species
• Disturbance from
extreme events
• Wildfire potential
• Forests pests & disease
• Invasive species
Generally Opportunities
• Increased productivity:
longer growing season
• Increased productivity:
more CO2
• Increased habitat for
some species
Depends on
SITE and OBJECTIVES!
Effects on Forests
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment

8. What actions can be taken to
enhance the ability of a system to
cope with change
and
meet conservation goals and
objectives?

9. Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Workbook

Strategies & Approaches

Menu of adaptation actions
Structured process to
integrate climate
change considerations
into management.
• Workbook approachOrder a copy at:
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760 Also online: AdaptationWorkbook.org

10. Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
• Reviewed adaptation
literature
• Developed a menu of 10
strategies and 38 approaches
• Refined based on comments
from >50 reviewers
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches Menu
www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs-strategies

11. Translating concepts to actions
Options (concepts):
• Resistance, Resilience, Transition
Strategies:
• Regionally specific conditions
Approaches:
• Actions for a specific ecosystem
or forest type
Tactics:
• Prescriptions for local conditions
and mgmt. objectives
Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs-strategies

12. Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION
 Improve defenses of
forest against change
 Maintain relatively
unchanged conditions
 Accommodate some
degree of change
 Return to prior condition
after disturbance
 Facilitate change
 Enable ecosystem to
respond to new and
changing conditions
Millar et al. 2007
Options – big concepts for how to respond

13. Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
Resist
Change
Promote a
Transition
Enhance
Resilience
1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions.
2: Reduce existing biological stressors.
3: Reduce impacts of severe disturbances.
4: Maintain or create refugia.
5: Enhance species and structural diversity.
6: Promote ecosystem redundancy.
7: Increase landscape connectivity.
8: Enhance genetic diversity.
9: Facilitate species transitions.
10: Realign after disturbance.
www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs-strategies
StrategiesOptions

14. The menu helps you
create clear rationale
for your actions by
connecting them to
broader adaptation
ideas.
“Intentionality”
“Success”
Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs-strategies

15. Adaptation Workbook
Adaptation Workbook provides structured process to
integrate climate change considerations into management
planning and activities
1. DEFINE area of
interest, management
objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate
change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the
area of interest.
3. EVALUATE
management objectives
given projected impacts
and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and
implement adaptation
approaches and tactics .
5. MONITOR and
evaluate effectiveness
of implemented
actions.
Vulnerability
assessments,
scientific literature,
and other resources
Adaptation
Strategies and
Approaches

16. Adaptation Workbook
Step-by-step Adaptation Workbook for planning

17. Adaptation Workbook
Step-by-step Adaptation Workbook for planning
• Interactive, self-guided, flexible
• Access resources based on
project location
• Creates custom adaptation plan
based on inputs
• Distance learning courses

18. Why it’s important:
Helps connect the dots
from broad concepts to
specific actions for
implementation.
Management
Goals & Objectives
Climate Change Impacts
Intent of Adaptation (Option)
Make Idea Specific
(Strategy, Approach)
Action to Implement
(Tactic)
Challenges & Opportunities
Menu + Workbook: Connects the Dots

19. Not just forests…
Expanding to more resource areas
Currently available:
• Forests
• Urban forests
• Agriculture
In development:
• Forested watersheds – draft in progress
• Carbon management
• Wildlife? Tribes & cultural resources?
• Other?

20. Real-world examples
How are folks coping and dealing with uncertainty?

21. Develop local examples
of adaptation
www.forestadaptation.org/demos
200+
Projects
underway

22. Adaptation Demonstrations
• Provide real-world examples of forest
management activities that:
• Enhance the ability of forests to cope with changing
conditions
• Achieve land owner management goals
• Foster cross-ownership dialogue and learning
• Illustrate diverse goals and approaches

23. Atlas Timberlands (VT)
www.forestadaptation.org/atlas
Sustainable forestry
Conservation

24. Atlas Timberlands (VT)
Current Management with
Adaptation Benefits
• Follow BMPs for water quality
• Increase coarse woody material
• Increase tree species diversity
• Increase forest structural
diversity
• Ensure adequate seedling
regeneration
• Control invasives
• Minimize roads & trails

25. Atlas Timberlands (VT)
Challenge: Shorter and more variable winters

26. Atlas Timberlands (VT)
• Road layout
• Pre-sale road work
• Temporary bridge installation
Adaptation Tactic: Summer harvest

27. Norcross Wildlife Sanctuary (MA/CT)
Increase tree species diversity & forest structure
Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
Promote native species adapted to future conditions

28. Trout Unlimited & Partners (VT/MA)
Increase tree species diversity & forest structure
Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
Increase stream connectivity
Reducing impacts from extreme events, low flows, etc.

29. The Nature Conservancy (ME)
Increase tree species diversity & forest
structure
Promote future-adapted tree species by
planting (red & black spruce, white pine)
Current White Pine Abundance

30. Providence Water (RI)
Water quality
Water quantity
Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
Promote future-adapted tree species by planting southern species
(black oak, pin oak, persimmon, pitch pine, shortleaf pine)
Minimize impacts from herbivory

31. If you want a single “answer” for how to
respond to climate change, it’s
“It depends”
It depends on where you are working
and what you’re trying to achieve.

32. Same actions–
climate change
just makes
them that
much more
important
Small “tweaks” that
improve effectiveness
New & different
actions to consider,
even some that may
seem wild & crazy
*individual results will vary
Adaptation: The Real Story

33. Next time you’re in the woods
Take a look around & think about:
What’s important here?
How might it change?
What am I already doing to help?
What else can I do to help?
www.forestadaptation.org/NESAF2015

34. Thank you!
Maria Janowiak
mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us