Rebalancing the UK economy - Peter Hahn, Cass Business School

Rebalancing the UK Economy (While Wealth Shifts East) Pete Hahn Foundation for Management Education Fellow Corporate Finance, Governance & Banking July 2008

Disclaimer The Presenter, Sources, Opinions…….

Covering Today ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Major UK Banks Net Interest Margin Basic banking has been getting less profitable for 10 years!

UK Banks Lending to Non-Financial Corporations Very Stable Growth

UK Banks Aggregate Balance Sheet (End 2007)

Financial Market Liquidity (a)

Moody’s Speculative Grade Bonds Default Rates and Expectations (a) percent

Where Do Recessions Come From? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Prospects ,[object Object],There’s plenty of money inside, but it’s mostly committed to existing loans. Capital, or the petrol of the banking system, is near empty. It’s very expensive, and investors want to put it elsewhere. Without new capital, credit dries up. Banks

Prospects ,[object Object],[object Object]

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Who Will Be Hurt the Most? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Who Will Be Hurt the Most? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Your Investments ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How Long Will This Last? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Some Business & Strategy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Rebalancing the UK economy - Peter Hahn, Cass Business School

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Rebalancing the UK economy - Peter Hahn, Cass Business School