A company’s investment policy is the cornerstone of its investment management activities and should be a living document that is reviewed and updated as needed on an annual basis. In today’s investing environment, what should Treasury teams be thinking about as they conduct this review? Play back the recorded session of our webinar to hear Thomas Metzler, Managing Director with J.P. Morgan's Asset Management Global Liquidity Team, and Phil Mattes, Treasury Strategist with Kyriba Corp., discuss best practices and trends related to corporate investment policies and global liquidity management, as well as:
-Characteristics of a strong investment policy
-Current trends that might influence an investment policy review
-Investment management straight through processing best practices
-Financial systems support of investment policy compliance
3. Corporations are deploying cash, but cash levels are still growing
Corporate Cash as a % of Current Assets
Corporate Growth
S&P 500 companies – cash and cash equivalents, quarterly
$bn, nonfarm nonfinancial capex, quarterly value of deals completed
Equities
30%
$1,600
28%
$1,500
26%
Capital Expenditures
M&A Activity
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,400
24%
$1,000
$1,300
22%
$800
$1,200
20%
18%
16%
$600
$1,100
$1,000
14%
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
Dividend Payout Ratio
$400
$200
$900
$0
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Cash Returned to Shareholders
$bn, S&P 500 companies, rolling 4-quarter averages
S&P 500 companies, LTM
60%
$33
$30
$160
Dividends per Share
$140
50%
$120
$27
$100
$24
40%
$80
$21
$60
30%
$18
20%
Share Buybacks
$15
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
$40
$20
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Source: Standard & Poor’s, FRB, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Securities, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top left) Standard & Poor’s,
FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) M&A activity is the quarterly value of deals completed and capital expenditures are for
nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business. (Bottom left) Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Bottom right) Standard &
Poor’s, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. ―Guide to the Markets – U.S.‖ Data are as of 9/30/13.
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4. Holdings of cash and short-term investments
Nearly
60%
of organizations hold some amount of their cash outside of the U.S.
The share increases to
75%
for public corporations
Change in cash and short-term investment balances over the past year: U.S. and non-U.S. cash holdings
(Percentage distribution of organizations with cash and short-term investment holdings outside of the U.S.)
Within the U.S.
Outside the U.S.
Much larger (+15%)
11
12
Somewhat larger
26
25
No significant change
43
49
Somewhat smaller
10
9
Much smaller (-15%)
10
5
Source: The 2013 AFP Liquidity Survey,
Association for Financial Professionals
JPMorgan Global Liquidity Investment PeerView
(June 2013)
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5. Liquidity by the numbers
74%
of all cash balances are maintained in banks, money market funds and Treasury securities.
50%
of organizations’ short-term investment balances are held in bank deposits
Out of organizations’ short-term investment portfolios,
80%
65%
matures in 30 days or less
of financial professionals expect the average maturity of their organization’s short-term investment
portfolio to stay the same or shorten further
Among organizations decreasing cash balances
operations, the most common driver of lower
36%
acquired a company or launched new
cash holdings
Among organizations increasing cash balances
common driver of higher cash holdings
54%
generated higher operating cash flow, the most
Source: The 2013 AFP Liquidity Survey, Association for
Financial Professionals
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6. Allocation across cash instruments
Close to a third of cash assets are allocated to money market funds, with usage
highest in Europe and in companies with smaller cash balances
By Region
Total
N. America
50%
29%
35%
Europe
34%
40%
Asia
By Cash Balance
22%
<$500M
$500M - $999M
13% 6%
41%
66%
7%
9%
14%
19%
>$5 B
30%
50%
$1B - $5B
8% 7%
61%
25%
42%
32%
18%
7%
16%
34%
27%
5% 4%
8%
26%
15%
Bank deposits/earnings credit rate – offset to bank fees
Bank deposits/earnings credit rate – offset to bank fees
Money Market
Repos, CDs, commercial paper, corporate bonds
Money Market
Other
Other
Source: JPMorgan Asset Management Global Liquidity
Investment PeerView Study Results June 2013
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Repos, CDs, commercial paper, corporate bonds
7. Strategies with more yield are attracting corporate cash
Money Market Fund
AUM ($)
Managed Reserves &
Short Duration AUM ($)
600,000,000,000
70,000,000,000
JPMorgan Money Market Funds
Managed Reserves & Short Duration
60,000,000,000
500,000,000,000
50,000,000,000
400,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
300,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
200,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
100,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
Chart shown for illustrative and discussion purposes only.
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of December 31, 2013
Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice
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Dec-13
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0
Dec-04
0
8. A disciplined approach for evaluating investment
solutions
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9. Benefits of a well-executed investment policy
With consistency and clarity, an investment policy sets the
strategy for your investment decisions.
Ensures consistent approach in all market conditions
Provides clarity so that everyone understands the policy
Imposes transparency for internal control
Helps you meet your corporate investment goals
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10. Steps toward creating an investment policy
Weighing the risks and rewards for
cash investments — a rigorous,
ongoing, sequential process
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11. Segmenting cash by liquidity need and profile
This is the first step in determining your investment strategy
and ensuring optimal return.
Total balance
sheet cash
Risk profile
Strategic
cash
Restricted
cash
Reserve
cash
Operating
cash
Operating
Cash typically used
for daily operating
needs may
be subject to
unforeseen
volatility
Requires
preservation
of principal
Late-day access
Reserve
Investment horizon
of 6 to 9 months
or longer
Fairly static,
same-day access
not needed
Restricted
Balances trapped
in highly regulated
jurisdictions or with
repatriation-related
tax issues
Cash collateral
tied to credit
agreements or
derivative contracts
Same-day liquidity
Cash set aside for
possible acquisition,
stock buy back
or R&D
The above chart is for illustrative purposes only.
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Strategic
No short-term
forecasted use
Cash on balance
sheet that has not
been historically
used
Investment horizon
of 1 year or longer
12. Assess your tolerance for volatility
Considerations
Do you have any tolerance for volatility?
What is your maximum acceptable realized loss in a given period?
Should you have any restrictions on gains?
What data will you need to assess potential volatility in an investment strategy?
What is an appropriate impairment policy?
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13. Assess whether to extend maturity both at the security
and portfolio level
Considerations
Does the yield curve merit longer-term investment?
What proportion of the portfolio should you allocate to different maturities, given your
liquidity requirements?
What should be the maximum duration for the overall portfolio?
What will be the agreed course of action if immediate liquidity requirements cannot be
met?
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14. Investors with longer horizon can, over time, pick up higher returns by
extending maturities
All data as of December 31, 2013
BofA Merrill Lynch US 3-Month
Treasury Bill
Total rate of return (%)
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
StDev*
Total rate of return (%)
0.07
0.10
0.12
1.68
0.56
Frequency of negative returns
(rolling)
1 Month
3 Months
1 Year
Avg 1M Negative Return (%)
Avg 3M Negative Return (%)
Avg 1Y Negative Return (%)
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
StDev*
5.00%
2.50%
0.00%
(0.00)
(0.00)
-
0.18
0.21
0.31
1.97
0.63
1 Month
3 Months
1 Year
Avg 1M Negative Return (%)
Avg 3M Negative Return (%)
Avg 1Y Negative Return (%)
Average
Best
Period
0.00
0.00
0.05
0.08
0.10
0.12
1.68
0.42
0.85
1.74
1.80
1.91
2.32
2.76
1.34
2.70
5.29
5.03
4.42
3.60
3.81
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
Total rate of return (%)
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
StDev*
0.26
0.35
0.54
2.07
0.80
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
StDev*
0.36
0.78
1.09
2.56
1.40
Frequency of negative returns
(rolling)
3.33%
0.00%
0.00%
(0.01)
-
Benchmark returns, % (rolling)
Worst
BofA Merrill Lynch 1-3 Yr
US Treasuries
BofA Merrill Lynch 1-Year
US Treasury Note
Total rate of return (%)
Frequency of negative returns
(rolling)
Benchmark returns,% (rolling)
Period
BofA Merrill Lynch US 6-Month
Treasury Bill
Frequency of negative returns (rolling)
1 Month
3 Months
1 Year
Avg 1M Negative Return (%)
Avg 3M Negative Return (%)
Avg 1Y Negative Return (%)
1 Month
3 Months
1 Year
Avg 1M Negative Return (%)
Avg 3M Negative Return (%)
Avg 1Y Negative Return (%)
17.50%
5.00%
0.00%
(0.06)
(0.11)
-
Benchmark returns, % (rolling)
Benchmark returns, % (rolling)
Worst
Average
Best
0.00
0.04
0.14
0.17
0.21
0.31
1.97
0.49
1.00
2.04
2.11
2.24
2.67
3.08
1.82
3.40
6.08
5.50
4.79
3.90
4.03
Period
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
26.67%
16.67%
1.67%
(0.21)
(0.28)
(0.19)
Worst
Average
Best
Period
Worst
Average
Best
-0.30
0.04
0.22
0.25
0.35
0.54
2.07
0.52
1.05
2.14
2.24
2.41
2.93
3.34
2.52
4.15
6.91
5.84
5.00
4.64
4.34
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
-1.06
-0.33
-0.35
0.28
0.67
1.09
2.56
0.65
1.31
2.66
2.83
3.06
3.61
3.96
3.75
5.95
9.16
6.98
5.95
5.53
4.93
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch. Above data is based on 120 monthly observations. Returns for periods of 1 year or longer are annualized. * Annualized standard deviation of monthly
returns on a trailing 10-year basis. Charts are shown for illustrative purposes only. All data as of December 31, 2013.
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15. Assess whether greater credit risk is acceptable
Considerations
Besides using agency ratings, how will you assess and monitor credit quality of potential
investments/issuers?
Do you have the ability and resources in-house to assess credit quality or should you
outsource?
What will be your guidelines for credit allocation?
How often will you review credit quality and your credit risk exposures?
What is the agreed course of action if a security or issuer is downgraded, put on watch or
falls below your minimum credit quality standards?
Consider also how you expect to be notified of a downgrade event or threat in a timely way.
Is this information
that can be captured in-house or tasked to a third party?
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16. Risk Return Profiles for 1-3 Corporate Only Indices
All data as of December 31, 2013
BofA Merrill Lynch 1-3 Yr
AAA US Corporate
BofA Merrill Lynch 1-3 Yr
AA US Corporate
Total rate of return (%)
BofA Merrill Lynch 1-3 Yr
Single-A US Corporate
Total rate of return (%)
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
StDev*
0.87
1.53
2.72
3.23
2.05
BofA Merrill Lynch 1-3 Yr
BBB US Corporate
Total rate of return (%)
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
StDev*
1.06
1.81
3.45
3.29
2.02
Total rate of return (%)
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
StDev*
1.54
2.56
5.04
3.30
3.56
1 Year
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
StDev*
2.47
3.40
7.29
4.64
3.26
Frequency of negative returns
(rolling)
Frequency of negative returns
(rolling)
Frequency of negative returns
(rolling)
Frequency of negative returns
(rolling)
1 Month
3 Months
1 Year
Avg 1M Negative Return (%)
Avg 3M Negative Return (%)
Avg 1Y Negative Return (%)
1 Month
3 Months
1 Year
Avg 1M Negative Return (%)
Avg 3M Negative Return (%)
Avg 1Y Negative Return (%)
1 Month
3 Months
1 Year
Avg 1M Negative Return (%)
Avg 3M Negative Return (%)
Avg 1Y Negative Return (%)
1 Month
3 Months
1 Year
Avg 1M Negative Return (%)
Avg 3M Negative Return (%)
Avg 1Y Negative Return (%)
27.50%
16.67%
0.83%
(0.33)
(0.62)
(0.43)
Benchmark returns, % (rolling)
25.00%
18.33%
1.67%
(0.39)
(0.60)
(0.48)
Benchmark returns, % (rolling)
24.17%
15.00%
8.33%
(0.69)
(1.82)
(5.07)
Benchmark returns, % (rolling)
Period
Worst
Average
Best
Period
Worst
Average
Best
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
-2.43
-2.19
-0.43
0.88
1.42
2.72
3.22
0.81
1.63
3.33
3.55
3.80
4.33
4.63
4.30
5.76
8.78
7.05
6.20
6.56
5.53
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
-2.96
-2.43
-0.73
1.23
1.64
2.70
3.27
0.83
1.66
3.39
3.57
3.80
4.32
4.63
4.74
7.27
10.51
7.59
6.31
6.70
5.57
Period
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
20.83%
15.83%
5.00%
(0.59)
(1.29)
(3.35)
Benchmark returns, % (rolling)
Worst
Average
Best
-10.22
-10.27
-8.05
-1.58
0.48
0.98
3.26
0.85
1.70
3.46
3.61
3.79
4.18
4.50
7.34
11.32
16.90
11.03
7.79
6.72
5.62
Period
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year
2 Years
3 Years
5 Years
10 Years
Worst
Average
Best
-7.48
-7.19
-5.04
-0.25
1.38
1.78
3.99
1.17
2.37
4.90
5.09
5.17
5.29
5.24
9.51
15.08
23.11
14.77
10.42
7.74
6.01
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch. Above data is based on 120 monthly observations. Returns for periods of 1 year or longer are annualized. * Annualized standard deviation of monthly
returns on a trailing 10-year basis. Charts are shown for illustrative purposes only. All data as of December 31, 2013.
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17. Decide how your investment strategy will be executed
Considerations
Local
Regional
Global
In-house
Do you want to use in-house
resources or outsource?
Held to maturity
Do you want an investment strategy
imposed and managed
locally, regionally or globally?
What will be the process and criteria
for selecting and monitoring thirdparty providers?
Yield
versus
total return
What type of metrics and reports will
be required and how frequently?
Available for sale
Outsource
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16
18. Instituting an Investment Policy
1. Consider cash segmentation
2. Create a governance framework
3. Establish investment parameters, including objectives, benchmarks and
scope
4. Determine permissible investments
5. Define characteristics of investments, such as credit rating and
diversification by security type
6. Monitor investments
7. Ensure compliance with rigorous due diligence
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19. Conclusion
The ―right‖ investment policy can vary significantly from one
organization to another, depending on these factors:
Treasury
resources
Cash flows
Liquidity
requirement
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Comfort level
Hello, and thank you for dialing into our call today. I hope you all find it helpful as you look at what are probably a lot of growing priorities for the new year. We often do a great deal of Spring cleaning at home (every year I promise my wife to organize the garage), a lot of want to exercise more, stop drinking soda, etc…….I wonder how many on the line have updating your Investment Policy as a New Year’s resolution……hopefully after this call a few may just add that to their ToDo list.There are always a ton of uncertainty in the world and most of them bring risk to corporations that are difficult to manage. Having an update, flexible and rock solid Investment Policy is even more critical given today’s risks that we are all navigating through. I am sure you all have a dozen risk that you are managing within your specific firm or industry, but some big ones are:Regulation: More specifically, Frank Dodd, Basel 3, Money Fund Reform both from the SEC in the states and via the EC in Europe, etc.The possibility of Rising interest rates.My goal is to discuss some best practices with respect to your Investment Policy so that you can not only manage risk but even take advantage of opportunities with your corporate cash at the moment they present themselves.
2011 We began to see the fear that crippled the markets in 2008 start to dissipate. Dividends begin to slowly increase, share buybacks picked up a bit, and even capital expenditures grew…….but the sum of all those activities that use cash made only a minor dent in corporate cash balances. In fact, one can argue that the crisis changed the mindset of a lot of CFOs and Treasurers and they are quite frankly holding on to more cash today than they did prior to 2008. As a result, cash continues to be a core, even strategic asset, for a lot of corporations. Which makes a strong Investment Policy an even more important guiding document then ever before.TREASURY STRATEGIES STATISTICIn the US corporate cash levels are $1.93t (as of 9/30/13).Eurozone corporate cash is even larger, 1.95t EUR
Although I do not want to run through a ton of statistics on corporate cash investing behavior, I thought a few were worth showing in order provide a little context to this conversation. This slide, as well as the one following, have some interesting data points that we leveraged from the 2013 AFP Liquidity Survey. A lot has been discussed in the public forum as it relates to the location of corporate cash for US multi-national firms in particular. The reality is that 60% of organization hold some amount of their cash outside of the US. That number jumps to 75% if you are only measuring public corporations. We all know the reasons for this international build-up of cash……a lot of it has to do with an investment in international business and the infrastructure/investment required to support it. However, for the huge cash hoarders, it also has a lot to do with the US tax system that is more aggressive than most other international countries. For example, a lot of European and Asia car company’s literally move cash they generate in the US back to their Headquarters daily. This provides these firms with a great deal of flexibility on their efficient use of that strategic asset throughout their organization……I will stop there on the tax debate as we all recognize how complex that topic can get. The other data point worth noting supports my previous slide on the growth of corporate cash. Although there are some slight variations on where the cash is moving (up or down), the reality is that it is moving pretty consistently. The interesting fact is that of those surveyed, almost half do not see a significant change in their cash holdings……and another third see that cash growing. In total then, 80% will be flat and growing and only about 15-20% will see it shrinking.
I know this group understands this point, but worth repeating, corporations continue to manage their cash very conservatively. In fact, I have yet to meet a company since I have been doing this job that has not said they have the MOST conservative investment culture. The reality is that everyone is conservative, with some slight variations on how they would define conservative. To put some context to that: 74% of all cash are held in banks, MMFs and Treasuries 65% of organizations short-term portfolios mature in 30 days or less…….both of those stats would surely qualify as conservative by most measurers One might think with the equity markets performing and most macro risks diminishing that corporate treasurers they would look to take on more risk. However, that has not been the case from a broad perspective. We have a seen a risk on mentality within only certain pockets of corporate America….…… In fact, 80% except the average maturity of their short-term investments to stay the same or even go shorter. Maybe a not a bad idea if they have a fear of risking rates.
The survey highlighted key findings and regional trends with liquidity continuing to be a central concern. Close to a third of all cash assets globally are allocated to MMFs with European companies recording the highest allocation at 41%, almost twice that of Asia Pacific companies which have the lowest allocation at 19%. Asia Pacific companies tend to allocate most cash investments into bank deposits, as do smaller companies overall. North American companies typically have a higher allocation to Repurchase Agreements, CDs, commercial paper and corporate bonds, relative to other regions. However this could change if the regulators in the US (SEC) and in Europe (EC) change the fundamental structure of money market funds. Our survey found that one of the largest barriers preventing companies from supporting these changes to Money Market funds that are proposed by the regulators are due to the limitations of their investment policies.
Since the beginning of time, treasurers have always had to contend with competing forces—a need for yield on the one hand, and a mandate to minimize losses on the other. In the current low-rate environment, these competing forces have been more intense than usual. With that being said, we have helped clients through the process of understanding risk so that they can look to add a higher return on their corporate cash. Here we can see within J.P. Morgan our strategies outside of Money Market funds have grown at a consistently high rate than that of our Money Market fund complex. Of the two strategies shown, the greater beneficiary of this search for yield would be the strategy that sits directly beyond Money Market funds, that is what we call Managed Reserves. Corporate accounts often take baby steps so it is natural they would start with the most conservative strategy and then look to build upon that over time as their comfort grows. Having an Investment Policy that has the flexibility and control in order to make those changes is why we are having this call today.
WHY ESTABLISH AN INVESTMENT POLICY?- Corporate cash objectives can change quickly. A well-stated investment policy provides essential guidance regardless of market conditions.- A documented investment policy allows everyone from the treasury analyst to the board of directors to share a common and clear understanding of the organization’s objectives and permissible investments.- An investment policy also provides firms with the increasingly necessary financial transparency regarding corporate liabilities and serves as a mechanism for internal control.
WHAT IS CASH SEGMENTATION?- Cash segmentation is the practice of dividing business cash funds into separate categories. To determine the most appropriate investment strategy, cash should be segmented by liquidity needs and profile. This will require having an accurate picture of your cash flow, and understanding what cash is available for investment, and for how long. HOW CASH IS TYPICALLY SEGMENTED?- Operating cash is the most liquid form of cash segmentation, and the segment most likely to fluctuate. It includes the funds used to pay the regular costs of staying in business. Ask yourself, what do I need to run the business operations on a daily, weekly and monthly basis + a little cushion. Investments with a stable value that do not fluctuate often (Money Market funds) are found here as you can have a daily call on this cash, with safety & Liquidity are paramount objectives. This is where the majority of corporations have their cash given the uncertainty of their business or the markets. It is truly the most conservative bucket.- Reserve cash is money that is designed to stay around a bit longer (6-9 months), it is not earmarked for anything per se but if you do have a need it can be tapped (this risk/return dynamic can be customized). Restricted and Strategic cash are moneys set aside for future investments with no real plans for immediate use or liquidation, of varying degrees of course. This might be cash trapped in overseas markets, etc. If you are able to truly trust your cash forecasting process you can theoretically place your cash into these buckets and maximize your returns without jeopardizing your true business objectives.
- With corporate cash balances remaining high, investors need strong guidelines for making the most of their cash investments. - It is important for every organization to construct a well-detailed investment policy. The steps we have outlined will help you establish a policy appropriate for your organization. - Finally, a rigorous due diligence process is also imperative to guarantee compliance with your policy. It is one thing to have a comprehensive policy, it is another to ensure that you have the tools necessary to verify that you are working within the policy on a global basis……with the ability to manage exceptions so that you do not make any decisions in a moment that you will have to pay for in years to come.
Although we touched on it briefly already, it’s worth while to remind ourselves: What constitutes the right investment policy and ultimately investment strategy can vary hugely from one company to another (think about it as it relates to an individual……you and your neighbor can have the same level of education, same income, similar ages and asset levels…..but have very different experiences and views on how to manage your own wealth……..company’s are no different). So on top of all the personal aspects that drive investor behavior, each company has to consider:- the nature of their company’s cash flows- its short- and longer-term liquidity requirements- the resources available within treasury to oversee cash investments the company’s own comfort level with different types of investmentsWhile there are many variations in an investment approach, there is widespread agreement that formulating an investment policy should be a company-wide concern.