Partnering in the energy sector. Highlight of the co-operation and sharing best practices on how space weather can impact on critical infrastructures.

1. Space Weather Impacts on Critical
Infrastructure
OECD
9 December 2015

2. r• Impacts on technology
• What is space weather
• Extreme space weather
• The National Space Weather
Strategy
Overview

3. Severe Space Weather –
Societal and Economic Impacts

4. March 2012
7 March 2012: INCERFA was issued for Air Canada 003 (Vancouver
to Tokyo) until communications were established with the flight.

5. Space Weather Impacts – 4 Nov 2015
5
“Flights disappeared from radar screens in Swedish air traffic control towers
during the blackout, which lasted about an hour”

6. Transformer
damage
Failures of GPS
based positioning
Numerous
Polar flights
rerouted
NOTAM
Route restrictions due to
geomagnetic storm impact
on communications
Loss of
Japan’s
ADEOS II
satellite
18 of 34 NASA Earth
and Space Science
Missions impacted
Flare damages Mars
Odyssey probe
Numerous anomalies
on FedSat and other
Australian satellites
Solar cell damage
on ESA’s Smart-1
satellite
Powerdown of
Canadian robotic
arm on ISS
Oilfield services company
reported several cases of
survey Instrument
Interference around world
C.R. Luigs drill
ship, loses GPS,
resorts to backup
systems
SatComm and HF
outages
Nuclear power
plants reduced
power due to
geomagnetic
storm
Widespread HF outage
over African continent
SatComm and HF
outages
Over 130 hours of HF communication blackout in Antarctic
Japan’s Data Relay
Test Satellite went into
safe mode, and took
over a week to recover
Global Threat – Global Impact: Oct 2003

7. r• Impacts on technology
• What is space weather
• Extreme space weather
• The National Space Weather
Strategy

8. Magnetosphere
Energetic
Charged Particles
Electromagnetic
Radiation
What is space Weather
Space weather refers to the variable conditions on
the Sun and in space that can influence performance
and reliability of space and ground-based
technological systems, and endanger life or health.
Ionosphere
Magnetic Field
(Magnetized Plasma)

9. Geomagnetic Storms
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) create geomagnetic
storms

10. Geomagnetic Storm Impacts
Manned Spaceflight
Power Grid Operations
Impacts from geomagnetic
storms are wide-ranging
with potentially significant
consequences.
GPS
Satellite Operations
Aircraft Operations
Rail

11. Impacts on Electric Power Grid
• CME impacts Earth’s magnetic field
• Fluctuations generate electric fields
on Earth. These geomagnetically
induced currents (GIC) can flow into
power lines and transformers
• Leads to transformer saturation and
over-heating, voltage drops,
transformer damage, grid collapse
Vulnerability of US grid
• Northern latitude (location of aurora during geomagnetic storms)
• Areas of relatively high resistive igneous rock
• Very high voltage interconnected transmission network
• Proximity to oceans (conductivity of ocean salt water)
Transformer winding failure

12. r• Impacts on technology
• What is space weather
• Extreme space weather
• The National Space Weather
Strategy
Overview

13. 13
Extreme Events: Carrington – Sep 1-2, 1859
Visible Aurora, Sep 2
“All our exchanges, from the northern coast of the Island of
Cuba gave glowing descriptions of the Aurora Borealis - as
bright in the tropics as in the northern zones”
New Orleans Daily Picayune, September 7, 1859
18 hours later…

14. • US population at risk of extended power outage: 20-40 mil
• Duration: 16 days to 1-2 years
• Economic cost: $0.6-2.6 trillion USD
• Highest Risk: DC-NYC corridor
• Gulf Coast states, including Florida, identified as a "high
risk" area.
Lloyds Report (21 May 2013): Solar Storm Risk to the
North American Electric Grid
www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/risk-insight

15. Assessing the Risk
Image courtesy of NASA, Original by Metatech Corp
100Year Geomagnetic Storm Impact
Electrojet at 50° north latitude.
Image courtesy of Metatech Corp
100Year Geomagnetic Storm Impact Electrojet
at 45° north latitude.
“The most likely worst-case
system impacts from a
severe GMD event . . . is
voltage instability. . . .”
“NERC recognizes that
other studies have indicated
a severe GMD event would
result in the failure of a large
number of EHV transformers
. . . this report does not
support that conclusion. . . .”

16. A coronal mass ejection speed: ~2900 km/s or 6.5
million mph occur only once every ~5 to 10 years.
NASA SOHO
23 July 2012 – dodging the bullet!
Powerful solar flare
on 23 July, 2012…
…not Earth-directed

17. • “Using a well-proven geomagnetic storm
forecast model, we find the 23-24 July event
would have produced a geomagnetic storm that
was comparable to the largest events of the 20th
Century.”A Major Solar Eruptive Event in July 2012: Defining Extreme Space
Weather Scenarios; D.N. Baker et al.
23 July 2012

18. Predictive Science, San Diego - Feb 2012: "On the
probability of occurrence of extreme space weather
events" indicates "the probability of another
Carrington event occurring within the next decade is
12%.”
On the probability of a
Carrington-like event
USGS - May 2012 - "The most likely Poisson
occurrence probability for another Carrington event
in the next 10 years is 0.063, or about half the 0.120
probability that Riley [2012] estimates by
extrapolating from smaller events."

19. r• Impacts on technology
• What is space weather
• Extreme space weather
• The National Space Weather
Strategy
Overview

20. Space Weather Mitigation
 Congress – Grid Reliability and Infrastructure Defense (GRID) Act,
S. 2158; Critical Infrastructure Protection Act, H.R. 1073
 U.S. Regulatory Action – FERC reliability standards
 Space weather in Strategic National Risk Assessment
 FEMA Federal Interagency Response Plan – Will include a Long –
Term Power Outage Annex
 International – UN World Meteorological Organization Inter-
Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather; FAA and UN
International Civil Aviation Organization; NATO space weather
teams including Transport
Multiple efforts underway to address space weather, across
government agencies and the private sector – nationally
and internationally

21. National Space Weather Strategy
Nov 2014 – Space Weather Operations, Research,
and Mitigation (SWORM) Task Force is established
Tasked to develop:
• National Space Weather
Strategy (NSWS)
• Space Weather Action Plan
21
A cohesive all-of-government strategy was necessary to
ensure the federal government was positioned to mitigate,
respond to and recover from a major space weather storm

22. • Multi-agency effort
• All Actions coordinated with White House Office
of Science and Technology Policy, National Security
Council, and Office of Management and Budget
• Public Comment Period - stakeholders provided input
and feedback on National Strategy
National Space Weather Strategy –
Whole Enterprise Involvement
Strategy will require us to strengthen our interagency,
public-private and international partnerships, in a
whole community approach.

23. National Space Weather Strategy – Structure
Strategy articulates six high-level goals
1. Establish Benchmarks for Space-Weather Events
2. Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities
3. Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts
4. Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of
Impacts on Critical Infrastructure
5. Improve Space-Weather Services through
Advancing Understanding and Forecasting
6. Increase International Cooperation
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24. The NSWAP establishes specific
activities with:
• implementation timelines
• detailed actions
• specific agency assignments
A National Space Weather Action Plan (NSWAP)
establishes a process to implement the National
Space Weather Strategy
National Space Weather Action Plan
24

25. 4.1.1 DHS, in collaboration with Sector Specific Agencies (SSAs),
will assess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to space-
weather events (as described in Goal 1). The assessment will
include interdependencies and failure modes among sectors that
can lead to cascading failures and will identify gaps where
scientific or engineering research is required to understand or
mitigate risks to critical infrastructure.
Deliverable: Complete assessment reports
Timeline: The initial assessments will be completed within 18
months of the development of Phase 1 benchmarks.
Reevaluations based on the Phase 2 benchmarks will be
completed within 1 year of the development of Phase 2
benchmarks
4.1 Assess the Vulnerability of Critical Infrastructure Systems
to Space Weather

26. The Way Forward
Ensuring effective implementation
• Currently defining effort to oversee
implementation of Action Plan
• Oversight of Action Plan will be led by
White House with full agency involvement
• Proposed oversight by National Science
and Technology Council

27. Memo from OMB and OSTP Directors
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“Space weather observations and R&D are essential to address the growing societal
needs for accurate and timely space weather information. Agencies should prioritize
investments in space weather science and preparedness according to the 2015 National
Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan.
White House
Multi-Agency
Science and
Technology
Priorities for
the FY 2017
Budget

28. THANK YOU!
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