Presentation from March 2022 CCXG Global Forum

1. [Axel Fassio/CIFOR_Flickr_CC BY-NC-ND / Unsplash]
23 March 2022
Adaptation in the Working Group II report
Session 6: Global goal on adaptation
Dr Lisa Schipper
Co-ordinating Lead Author Chapter 18: Climate resilient development
pathways / Drafting Author: Summary for Policymakers
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

2. “
The scientific evidence is unequivocal:
climate change is a threat to human well-
being and the health of the planet.
Any further delay in concerted global
action will miss the brief, rapidly closing
window to secure a liveable and
sustainable future for all.
This report offers solutions to the world.

3. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Global warming
has caused dangerous and
widespread disruption in nature…
[Pacific Southwest Forest Service, USDA CC BY 2.0]

4. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
…and climate change is affecting the lives
of billions of people, despite efforts to adapt.
[NLRC via IFRC CC BY-NC 2.0]

5. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
[Denis Onyodi / KRCS CC BY-NC 2.0; Marco Dormino UN Photo CC BY-NC-ND 2.0; Markus Krisetya / Unsplash]
Overlapping challenges
• Limited access to water, sanitation and
health services
• Climate-sensitive livelihoods
• High levels of poverty
• Weak leadership
• Lack of funding
• Lack of accountability and trust in
government

6. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Every small increase in warming
will result in increased risks.
[Ocean Image Bank / The Ocean Agency]

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Action on adaptation has
increased but progress is uneven
and we are not adapting fast enough.
[Boskalis / Rijkswaterstaat]

8. “There are increasing gaps
between adaptation action taken
and what’s needed.
These gaps are largest among
lower income populations.
They are expected to grow.

9. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
There are options we can take
to reduce the risks to people and nature.
[Il Vagabiondo / Unsplash]

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Nature offers significant
untapped potential.
[World Agroforestry / Julius Atia CC BY-NC-SA 2.0]

11. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
[Denis Onyodi / KRCS CC BY-NC 2.0]
There are limits to adaptation
• Even effective adaptation cannot prevent
all losses and damages
• Above 1.5°C some natural solutions may
no longer work.
• Above 1.5°C, lack of fresh water could
mean that people living on small islands
and those dependent on glaciers and
snowmelt can no longer adapt.
• By 2°C it will be challenging to farm
multiple staple crops in many current
growing areas.

12. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Maladaptation
Adaptation that results in unintended consequences
[M W Pinsent CC BY-NC-ND 2.0; Dr. Danielle Kreeger of the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary CC BY-NC-ND 2.0 ]
The most disadvantaged groups are most affected by maladaptation.

13. “To avoid mounting losses, urgent
action is required to adapt to
climate change.
At the same time, it is essential to
make rapid, deep cuts in greenhouse
gas emissions to keep the maximum
number of adaptation options open.

14. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
[Axel Fassio/CIFOR CC BY-NC-ND 2.0]
Accelerating adaptation
• Political commitment and follow-through
across all levels of government
• Institutional framework: clear goals, priorities
that define responsibilities
• Enhancing knowledge of impacts and risks
improves responses
• Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation
measures are essential to track progress
• Inclusive governance that prioritises equity
and justice – direct participation

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Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

16. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Measuring adaptation progress (CCB PROGRESS, Ch 17)
- 170+ countries have adaptation strategies,
few have operational frameworks to track and
evaluate implementation and results
- Very few scientific studies addressed the
adaptation-specific aspects of the Global
Stocktake
- Different views and options on how assessing
global progress could take place
- The way forward requires a combination of
approaches
Issues to consider
- Comparability
- Aggregation
- Results: Input, process, output or outcome?
- Consistent and available data

17. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Approach / Data source Potential added-value Limitations
Systematic assessment of
adaptation responses reported in
academic literature (e.g. systematic
reviews, evidence synthesis, meta-
analysis, large-n comparative
studies)
Provides an indication of the status, trends and
gaps in adaptation responses
Not a representative sample; biased towards responses published in
scientific literature; excludes grey literature; some topics and regions
not well covered; challenges in terms of comparability and aggregation;
inconsistency in definitions and use of concepts; English language bias
Self-reported progress documents
by countries (e.g. National
Communications, Biennial
Transparency Reports or domestic
progress and evaluation)
Context-specific information; official government
documents enable assessments of national
progress
May only be available every few years; content is sensitive to political
and policy changes; possible bias towards positive examples;
challenges in terms of comparability and aggregation; inconsistency in
definitions and use of concepts
Self-reported information from the
private sector (e.g. information on
actions taken in response to climate
risks within the context of climate-
related financial disclosure or in
company reports).
Provides an indication of the status, trends and
gaps in adaptation responses by the private
sector; complements information published in
the scientific literature; could enable better
understanding of supply chain risks
Sample biased towards larger companies; challenges in terms of
comparability and aggregation; potential inconsistencies in definitions
and use of concepts
Project documents and
evaluations (e.g. from climate funds
or implementing organisations)
Detailed information on context, intended or
achieved results and activities
Actual implementation can differ from what was proposed; fragmented
picture of local/regional actions; results may be challenging to
aggregate; challenges in terms of comparability and aggregation;
inconsistency in definitions and use of concepts
Existing global data sets of mostly
quantitative indicators
Comparable information based on globally
defined indicators
Global data availability constrains indicator choice; reporting burden for
new indicators; trade-off between global applicability and national
circumstances; usefulness and meaningfulness of global indicators is
contested
Tracking financial flows Comparable data on financial flows directed at
adaptation; standardised methodologies (e.g.
OECD RIO markers; climate finance tracking
method of multilateral development banks)
No information about implementation of measures and their adaptation
effect (Eriksen et al, 2021), i.e. it tracks inputs, not outputs or outcomes;
inconsistency in what gets counted as adaptation finance

18. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Lisa.schipper@ouce.ox.ac.uk – @schipper_lisa
Research Fellow, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
Visiting Researcher, Department of Geography and Regional Research,
University of Vienna