CCXG Global Forum September 2017 Opening Plenary Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth by Simon Buckle

1. Dr Simon Buckle
Head of Climate, Biodiversity and Water Division
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change
Climate Change Experts Group
Paris 12-13 September 2017
Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth

2. Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth: a report
in support of the 2017 German G20 Presidency
“Boosting economic growth does not mean locking the world
into a high-emissions future, provided pro-growth reforms are
combined with coherent climate policy and alignment of
policies across the economy “

3. Part 1:
Low-emission
and resilient
pathways, role of
infrastructure
Part 2:
Macroeconomic
and growth
implications of
climate action
Part 3:
Aligning growth,
climate,
investment and
financing policies
Three parts to the report

4. Achieving the Paris temperature goal
• “Carbon budget” for well-below 2°C is around 15-30 years
of current energy-related CO2 emissions
• Global GHG emissions must peak as soon as possible
• Net GHG emissions must approach zero or become net
negative in the second half of the century
• Scale of the transformation required depends heavily on
future emissions from agriculture, forestry and land-use
(AFOLU):
 CO2 emissions from land-use change
 Non-CO2 GHG emissions, particularly methane and nitrous
oxide from agriculture

5. Delivering on Paris: countries’ emissions pathways will
vary depending on sociao-economic context
Based on 66% chance of staying below 2C, IEA 2017

7. Adaptation: climate resilient pathways
• Impacts even at 2°C
• Uncertainty - not just in
future climate projections
• Flexible, forward-looking
and iterative approaches
to decision making
needed
• Coherence across sectors,
levels of government
(National Adaptation
Plans, engagement)

8. An ambitious 2°C scenario requires a 10% increase
in infrastructure investment …
Increased expenditures are needed
in energy demand and electricity
USD 3.4 -4.4
trillion:
Current total
infrastructure
spending

9. Part 1:
Low-emission
and resilient
pathways, role of
infrastructure
Part 2:
Macroeconomic
and growth
implications of
climate action
Part 3:
Aligning growth,
climate,
investment and
financing policies
Report focuses on three key areas

10. By 2050, this growth effect will rise to 2.8%
further enhanced by avoided climate damages to 4.7%

11. Net growth effect in stylised (G20)
economies of selected pro-growth and
mitigation policies

12. Part 1:
Low-emission
and resilient
pathways, role of
infrastructure
Part 2:
Macroeconomic
and growth
implications of
climate action
Part 3:
Aligning growth,
climate,
investment and
financing policies
Report focuses on three key areas

13. Three components of a well-aligned policy framework
for climate and growth

14. Carbon pricing should be at the heart of low-carbon
policy, but more than 60% of emissions are not priced

15. Making the transition progressive, inclusive and good
for business
• Political economy is front and centre
• “Carbon entanglement”: reduce dependence on fossil fuel
royalties and taxes (about 6.8% of government revenues)
• Stranded assets – depending on how you measure, up to USD 1
trillion to 2050 (3x more if the transition is delayed)
• Heavy industry – challenge in a low-carbon world; role for
governments in innovation/demonstration and creating markets
(e.g through public procurement)
• Jobs and a “just transition” for workers: importance of employers-
unions-government discussion; exit strategies, re-skilling, etc.
• Co-benefits – e.g. air pollution and health

16. Improving risks and returns for green investments

17. Roughly 1/3 of commitments by the largest Multilateral
Development Banks to infrastructure sectors that will
contribute to climate mitigation and adaptation

18. Full report and further information at
http://oe.cd/G20climate
“The Leaders of the other G20 members state that the Paris
Agreement is irreversible. We … note the OECD's report
“Investing in Climate, Investing in Growth”. We reaffirm our
strong commitment to the Paris Agreement, moving swiftly
towards its full implementation … ”