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Energy cozzi(iea) ccxg gf sep2014

  1. 1. © OECD/IEA 2014 Laura Cozzi Directorate of Global Energy Economics CCXG, Paris, 17 June 2014
  2. 2. © OECD/IEA 2014 The context  Today’s investments lock in patterns of consumption, fuel use & emissions for long into the future  Capital costs to produce energy have doubled since 2000  Investment surge to meet rising Asian demand, but shale in US & renewables in Europe also show dynamic growth…  …that are attracting new type of investors  Growing public pressure on energy & environmental issues
  3. 3. © OECD/IEA 2014 Renewables come of age, but fossil fuel investment still dominant Annual energy supply investment Investment in renewables rose from $60 billion in 2000 to a high point approaching $300 billion in 2011, before falling back since 500 1 000 1 500 Billion dollars (2012) 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 Renewables Power transmission & distribution Fossil fuels Nuclear
  4. 4. © OECD/IEA 2014 10 20 30 40 50 60 Trillion dollars (2012) A new investment landscape for a 2 °C world Investment in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios, 2014-2035 Efficiency spending is $6 trillion higher & the composition of supply investment changes: CCS is widely deployed, $300 billion of fossil fuel investment is left stranded 450 Scenario New Policies Scenario Fossil fuels Power T&D Low-carbon Energy Efficiency
  5. 5. © OECD/IEA 2014 2 4 6 8 10 12 1990 2010 2030 Thosuand TWh Fossil-fuel plants fitted with CCS Fossil-fuel plants without CCS OECD 1990 2010 2030 Other non-OECD 1990 2010 2030 Renewables Nuclear China The power sector is central to a low-carbon world Electricity generation by technology and CO2 intensity in the 450 Scenario Investment in low-carbon power technologies needs to triple from around $250 billion today to $730 billion in 2035, three-quarters for renewables 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 gCO2/kWh CO2 electricity emission intensity (right axis)
  6. 6. © OECD/IEA 2014 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 2008 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035 Billion dollars (2012) $1 425 billion $565 billion $1 990 billion Attracting financing in the 450 Scenario Subsidies to renewables in the 450 Scenario New financing vehicles could help lower the cost of capital – a reduction of three pct points would make renewables more competitive, reducing subsidies by 40% Additional payment without WACC reduction Up to 2035 Up to 2015 $1 540 billion with reduced WACC $800 billion $1 190 billion
  7. 7. © OECD/IEA 2014 Committing capital in a fast-changing energy world  The role of governments in energy markets is on the rise, while private investors are wary of political and regulatory risks  Energy investments are moving to areas with high up-front costs, complicating the task of securing finance  The overall investment need in the energy sector is not much larger in a scenario compatible with a 2 °C target, but low-carbon have to significantly scale up  Credible policy & pricing signals, plus new financing vehicles, are essential to re-direct capital flows towards a 2 °C target  Report and data are free for download at: www.worldenergyoutlook.org

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