The document discusses development strategies and infrastructure planning frameworks in Central Asia and the Caucasus. It finds that most countries in the region have yet to develop long-term development strategies beyond 2030 and lack quantified targets and defined government responsibilities. While some countries have experimented with new coordinating bodies, most countries lack strong inter-ministerial coordination on infrastructure decisions. As a result, some infrastructure investments have continued patterns that do not fully support countries' economic diversification and climate goals. The document recommends that countries develop long-term decarbonization strategies, identify infrastructure projects aligned with long-term goals, and enhance data transparency to support analysis and monitoring.
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Item 3b Development Strategies and infrastructure planning frameworks: State of play in central Asia and the Caucasus
1. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES AND
INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING
FRAMEWORKS: STATE OF PLAY IN
CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS
Douglas HERRICK
Policy Analyst and GREEN Action Task Force Secretary, Green Growth and
Global Relations Division, Environment Directorate
Paris, 30 September 2019
3. Why is strategic infrastructure planning so important?
• “What countries build today will determine
their emissions and vulnerability to a
changing climate for decades to come”
OECD/The World Bank/UN Environment (2018), Financing Climate
Futures: Rethinking Infrastructure
• Planning is one of the six transformative
areas identified by the 2018 OECD-UNEP-
World Bank report Financing Climate
Futures: Rethinking Infrastructure
4. • Long-term development strategies
– allow planning for transformational changes by looking beyond business
and political cycles
– set long-term goals against which to track progress and screen projects
• An effective institutional set-up
– clearly defines responsibilities and translates long-term goals into
concrete actions
– coordinates and consults with stakeholders across ministries, sectors and
regions
• Both elements enable the reconciliation of infrastructure
decisions with long-term goals
– if strategies’ long-term goals (including environmental and social goals)
are taken into account in the decision-making process
– if stakeholders’ input (from across the governments’ ministries/agencies,
industries, NGOs, civil society) is taken into account
Why is strategic planning so important?
6. • Majority of strategies extend only to 2020 or 2030
– Only Kazakhstan has a development strategy to 2050
• Many lack quantified, measurable targets and clearly
defined responsibilities across government bodies
• No countries covered in the report have long-term low-
emission development strategies (LT-LEDS)
– Ukraine is the only country in the former Soviet Union that has
submitted a LT-LEDS to the UNFCCC
Most countries in the region have yet to elaborate
long-term development strategies
7. Kazakhstan 2050
Trans. Green Econ
Nurly Zhol
Strat Plan 2025
DP 18-20
NDS 2040
NDS 2030
Mid-term
Dev 16-20
Trans. Sustainable Dev
National Socioeconomic Dev Programme 11-30
Five Priority
Directions
Development strategies:
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and
Uzbekistan
2020 2030 2040 20502010
8. Azerbaijan 2020
Strategic Roadmaps
Georgia 2020
GP 16-20
GP 18
Action Plan, Green Dev Policy
Sustainable Dev Vision 2030
GP 16-20
Development strategies:
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Mongolia
2020 2030 2040 20502010
9. – Clear quantitative targets and
defined responsibilities across
the government
– Well-defined hierarchy and
links between strategies
– Nurly Zhol infrastructure
strategy aligned with China’s
Belt and Road Initiative
Kazakhstan 2050 and Nurly Zhol
Example of long-term strategic planning
10. OECD Framework for the Governance of
Infrastructure: Getting Infrastructure Right (2017)
Ten dimensions or “success
factors”
Policy options to identify an
enabling environment
Building on several OECD
instruments (public procurement,
integrity, budgeting, MLG)
11. 1. Develop a strategic vision for infrastructure
– A means to go beyond silos and balance of multiple objectives
– Long term vision with a flexible approach
– Link to budget allocations and fiscal framework
2. Choose how to deliver infrastructure
– Use of data and cost-benefit analysis
– Choose a delivery model based on project size and profile, source of
revenues, possibility to measure usage, uncertainty levels and risks.
3. Co-ordinate infrastructure policy across levels of
government
– Reduce gaps, overlaps, or contradictions
– Alignment of strategic priorities
– Economies of scale
Strategic Vision and Planning
12. Most OECD countries have an overall long-term strategic
infrastructure vision
EST
SWE
AUS
LUX
CHE
CHL
CZE
DEU
DNK
FRA
HUNISR
NOR
SVK
SVN
AUT
ESP
GBR
GRC
IRL
ITA
JPN
MEX
NLD NZL
PRT
TUR
Sectoral and overall
(12)
Onlysectoral
(11)
Onlyoverall
(2)
None
(2)
Source: OECD (2018), Survey on Capital Budgeting and Infrastructure Governance
14. • Countries have experimented with new coordinating
bodies in recent years
– e.g. Uzbekistan’s commissions on each of its priority areas
• Most countries lack strong bodies to coordinate decisions
on infrastructure development across key sectors
• Inter-ministerial bodies on climate change meet
irregularly and have limited influence on infrastructure
decisions
Inter-ministerial coordination needs to be
strengthened
15. – Cross-ministerial decision-
making bodies
– Link national priorities to
regional and local
development plans
– Strong links to private sector,
academia, civil society
Colombia’s Inter-Sectoral Commissions on Climate
Change and Infrastructure
Source: OECD (2018), Developing Robust Project Pipelines for Low-Carbon Infrastructure, Green Finance and Investment, OECD
Publishing, Paris
Example of coordinating decision-making across sectors and in line
with climate goals
17. • Although economic diversification goals feature
prominently across the region, investments have
continued to favour status quo
– e.g. limited investment in renewables, continued investment in
coal and upstream oil and gas in reliant countries
Some infrastructure decisions are misaligned with
long-term goals
18. – 2050 goals translated into 5-
year carbon budgets
– Project support provided to
encourage the development of
the UK’s renewable energy
potential (e.g. offshore wind)
UK’s Committee on Climate Change and its carbon
budgets
Source: OECD (2018), Developing Robust Project Pipelines for Low-Carbon Infrastructure, Green Finance and Investment, OECD
Publishing, Paris
Example of taking long-term goals into account for infrastructure
and policy decisions
19.
20. – Current strategic documents and institutional settings do not fully
support economic diversification and climate goals as well as other
SDGs
What should be done?
– Develop long-term decarbonisation strategies using a whole-of-
government approach
– Develop a list of infrastructure projects aligned with long-term goals
– Enhance data availability and transparency to enable further
analysis and monitoring
Key messages and recommendations from the
analysis
22. • What are the main
barriers to developing
long-term strategies
and inter-ministerial
coordination?
Questions for discussion / Вопросы для обсуждения
• Какие барьеры
препятствуют
разработке
долгосрочных
стратегий и
координации между
госорганами?
23. • How could long-term
goals be better taken
into account in
infrastructure
decisions?
Questions for discussion / Вопросы для обсуждения
• Каким образом
можно лучше
учитывать
долгосрочные цели в
решениях касательно
инфраструктурных
проектов?
Notes de l'éditeur
They extend beyond business and political cycles
They trace a pathway between the present and long-term development goals
They extend beyond business and political cycles
They trace a pathway between the present and long-term development goals
Kazakhstan is the only country with an overall economic development strategy to 2050. The Kyrgyz Republic has one to 2040, while Turkmenistan’s main development strategy extends to 2030.
In the Caucasus, overall strategies extend only to 2020, but Azerbaijan has adopted a series of sectoral Strategic Roadmaps (covering the economy’s main sectors) to 2025. Long-term vision, however, is missing
Colombia has two inter-sectoral commissions that coordinate decision making on strategic infrastructure projects and on climate change with representation from across the government (ministries of transport, energy, finance, environment, interior…). The Climate Change commission is chaired by the Ministry of Environment, while the Infrastructure commission is chaired by the Ministry of Transport.
Major infrastructure projects can be submitted by public or private sector actors, and then ministries in charge of particular sectors submit the most appropriate proposals (in line with the objectives of national development plans) to the Inter-Sectoral Commission for inclusion in the list of prioritised “Projects of National Strategic Interest”.
Before the creation of the climate change commission, action on climate change in regional governments and across the national government’s ministries and agencies was piecemeal and uncoordinated. The commission brings together representatives of key ministries and Colombia’s regional governments to streamline messaging and priorities on climate change mitigation and adaptation. It identifies where more financing is necessary and ensures coherence in the implementation of Colombia’s NDC across regions and sectors in the country
Reference conclusions from Alin’s presentation
***
The Commission tracks progress towards mitigation and adaptation goals regularly and flags priority action areas for aligning policies with the UK’s 2050 climate strategy
is it the silo culture where line ministries and departments do not communicate or do not share common goals? Conflicting interests between industrial development and climate goals?
if there are conflicting view between different ministries, do we need high-level political ownership of long-term visions and strategies to mediate the different views across sectoral ministries?