Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise, though renewable energy investment has increased, outpacing declines in oil prices. While costs of wind and solar technologies have fallen significantly in recent decades due to learning effects, current national commitments under the Paris Agreement are not sufficient to keep global warming below 2°C. Meeting this target will require trillions of dollars in additional investment in low-carbon power generation globally between now and 2040, with developing countries projected to increase their emissions if no further action is taken.

1. 3RD OECD
GREEN INVESTMENT
FINANCING FORUM
State and trends of green finance
and green investment needs
Ali Izadi
13 October 2015

2. 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Note: Includes NGL and processing gain, but excludes biofuels
Source: IEA; CDIAC; BP; Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
GLOBAL CARBON EMISSIONS FROM FOSSIL
FUELS
(GIGATONNES CO2/YEAR)
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
30
32
34
36
5.5% 5.7% 3.1% 5.4% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5.5% 5.7% 3.1% 0% 5.4% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5%
Global GDP
growth (real)

3. 2
$62bn
$88bn
$128bn
$175bn
$206bn $207bn
$274bn
$318bn
$297bn
$272bn
$316bn
$329bn
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$146/bbl
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy
storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro.
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ROSE WHILE OIL
PLUMMETED
GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT VS WTI CRUDE SPOT 2004-15
$48/bbl
Record
investment

4. 3
Source: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
INVESTMENT IN POWER CAPACITY, 2008–15
($BN)
Renewables
ex large
hydro
Fossil fuel
Nuclear
Large hydro
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

5. 4
Note: New investment volume adjusts for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Source: Bloomberg New Energy FInance
RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT, 2004–15 BY
REGION ($BN NOMINAL)
5.6
11.9
29.1
33.2
35.5
23.9
34.7
49.1
40.6
35.3
37.0
44.1
'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15
United States
0.83.15.2
11.411.8
7.97.2
10.2
7.7
4.4
8.07.1
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Brazil
1.73.33.75.06.15.5
12.0
9.3
10.112.0
13.3
12.8
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
AMER (excl. US &
Brazil)
24.8
33.3
46.9
66.8
81.882.7
113.4
122.9
89.0
60.0
62.0
48.8
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Europe
7.39.010.012.413.613.9
19.3
23.8
30.2
44.4
48.8
47.6
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
ASOC (excl. China
& India)
3.0
8.3
11.2
16.7
25.6
38.8
39.6
47.4
61.7
62.0
87.8
102.9
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
China
2.73.04.96.75.64.3
8.8
12.8
7.86.68.3
10.2
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
India
0.60.81.11.82.31.64.13.0
10.29.37.9
12.5
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Middle East & Africa

6. 5
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
2003
1976
1985
2008
Cumulative capacity (MW)
Current
2015
price
WIND AND SOLAR EXPERIENCE CURVES
Note: Pricing data has been inflation corrected to 2014. We assume the debt ratio
of 70%, cost of debt (bps to LIBOR) of 175, cost of equity of 8%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Prices are in real (2015) USD. ‘Current price’ is $0.61/W
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock
ONSHORE WIND LEVELISED COST ($/MWh) SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($/W)
Learning rate
24.3%
MODULE COSTS
HAVE FALLEN
99% SINCE 1976
80% SINCE 2008
y = 3,582.42x-0.30
R² = 0.91
16
32
64
128
256
512
1,024
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
1985
2025
2014
Learning rate =19%
R² = 0.91
Thailand
Brazil
Germany
US
H1 2015
1999
2009
1,024
512
256
128
64
32
100 1,000 10,000
16
100,000 1,000,000
Learning rate 19%
1985
1999
2009
2014
2025
H2 2015
Learning rate
19%
WIND COSTS
HAVE FALLEN
50% SINCE 2009

7. 6
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical emissions
2 C trajectory
INDC
trajectory
Pre-COP21 pledges
GtCO2e/yr
THE CHALLENGE:
The pledges made at Paris COP21 (INDCs) don’t get us to 2°C trajectory
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
UNFCCC, UNEP
Note: ‘INDC’ refers to intended nationally determined contributions submitted by countries to the UNFCCC as part of the
Durban Platform negotiations – INDCs represent a country’s post-2020 low carbon and emission reduction targets
Annual greenhouse gas emission, historical trend and projection

8. 7
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
PROGRESS THUS FAR:
The world is on the path to spend $9.3trn on zero-emission power generation
technologies until 2040
Expenditure in power generation technologies, 2016-2040
3,429 (30%)
3,111 (27%)
1,472 (13%)
911 (8%)
354 (3%)
1,202 (11%)
892 (8%)
Solar
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
Other
renewables
Coal
Gas
Total = $11.4 trillion

9. 8
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
THE CHALLENGE:
Emissions from developing countries continue to rise
China
USEurope
India
SE Asia
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Normalised power sector CO2 emission projections:
EU, US, CHINA, INDIA & SE ASIA (Index, 2012=100)
2015 2040
China 3,504 3,315
India 992 3,125
SE Asia 540 931
US 1,940 914
Europe 1,058 275
Power sector CO2
emission (MtCO2)

10. 9
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
THE CHALLENGE:
$5.3trn investment gap in the power sector alone to reach the 2 degree path
$1.7
$1.8
$2.0 $2.1
$1.6
$2.9
$3.3 $3.3
$3.0
$2.1
2016-20 2021-25 2026-30 2031-35 2036-40
NEO2016
2 degrees
Current path
2 degrees path
Investment in zero-carbon power generation:
current path vs 2 degrees path (trillion dollars)

11. 10
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