Offshore wind roadmap for the Philippines

1. OFFSHORE WIND
ROADMAP FOR
THE PHILIPPINES
24 NOVEMBER 2022
MARIA AYUSO OLMEDO, MARK LEYBOURNE – WORLD
BANK

2. • The Roadmap:
• Two possible OSW growth scenarios covering realistic paths for the Philippines
• Projected demand – Philippine Energy Plan 2020-2040
• Understanding challenges of emerging market
• Roadmap's Objective:
To assess quantifiable effects of OSW deployment at different scales on:
• Policy and regulation
• Infrastructure
• Generation costs and cost reduction
• Environmental and marine spatial planning
• Socio-economic benefits
• Financing and bankability
• What this roadmap is not:
• A least-cost plan modelling exercise
• A target-setting instrument

3. Opportunities:
• Improve energy security
• Lower greenhouse gas emissions
• Increase renewable energy supply
• Benefit the economy
• Reduce demands for land use
Challenges:
• Transmission grid availability
• Environmental impacts and extreme weather events
• Infrastructure investment
• Coordination and planning
• Power offtake - competition
178 GW total technical potential OSW resource
(18 GW fixed and 160 GW floating)

4. • 6 potential OSW development zones identified, considering:
o Environmental and social restrictions and exclusions
o Levelized cost of energy (wind speed is critical – consider
measurement campaign)
o Transmission and port infrastructure and demand centers
• Recommend DOE completes proportionate MSP and publishes
final map by end 2023
• Inform the WESCs to be honored, and applications processed
• New applications outside of areas will be considered less
favorably
A: Northwest Luzon Floating 2 to 5 GW
B: Manila area Fixed and floating 0 to 3 GW
C: Northern Mindoro Floating 3 to 10 GW
D: Southern Mindoro Floating 20 to 36 GW
E: Guimaras Strait Fixed 0 to 1 GW
F: Negros / Panay area Floating 2 to 3 GW

5. A: Northwest Luzon Moderate – IMMA (humpback whales and rough-toothed dolphins) 2 to 5GW
B: Manila Limited – some coastal habitats 0 to 3GW
C: Northern Mindoro Significant – Verde Island Passage MPAN, KBAs, EBSA, some corals, seagrass,
mangroves
3 to 10GW
D: Southern Mindoro Moderate – EBSA, some corals, seagrass, mangroves 20 to 36GW
E: Guimaras Strait Significant – IMMA (Irrawaddy dolphin) , some corals, seagrass, mangroves 0 to 1GW
F: Negros/Panay West Moderate – Taklong Island National Marine Reserve (MPA), Negros Occidental
Coastal Wetlands Conservation Area (NOCWCA) some corals, seagrass, mangroves
2 to 3GW
A. Northwest Luzon
(~3GW)
D. Southern Mindoro (~28GW)
B & C. Manila and Northern
Mindoro (~6GW)
E & F. Guimaras and
Negros/Panay (~3GW)
Exclusions
LPAs and IRAs
• MPAs under the NIPAS/E-NIPAS
• Critical Habitats
• KBAs, including IBAs and AZE Sites
• Ramsar Sites
• IMMAs
• UNESCO sites
Natural Habitats
• Coral Reefs
• Seagrass beds
• Mangroves
Restrictions
LPAs and IRAs
• LMPAs
• EBSAs

6. A. Northwest Luzon
(~3GW)
D. Southern Mindoro (~28GW)
B & C. Manila and Northern
Mindoro (~6GW)
E & F. Guimaras and
Negros/Panay (~3GW)
• Numerous potential constraints considered:
• Artisanal and commercial fisheries
• Aquaculture activities
• Landscape and seascape
• Historical and cultural areas
• Tourism areas
• Ports and shipping routes
• Military exercise areas
• Aviation
• Subsea cables and pipelines
• Insufficient spatial data or analysis available at this
stage to classify constraints into Exclusions or
Restrictions

7. 0
10
20
30
40
50
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Earlier
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Cumulative
operating
capacity
(GW)
Annual
installaed
capacity
(GW)
Year of installation
Low growth High growth
Source: BVG Associates 2030
L: 1.6 GW
H: 2.8 GW
2040
L: 3.2 GW
H: 20.5 GW
2050
L: 5.6 GW
H: 40.5 GW
Development
+4 years
Construction
+3 years
Timeline for 1st Projects

8. Level 2 category
Track record
and capacity in
offshore wind
Capability in
parallel sectors
Benefits
of local supply
Investment risk
in the
Philippines
Size of the
opportunity
Development and project
management
1 4 4 4 2
Nacelle and hub, and assembly 1 1 2 1 4
Blades 1 1 3 1 4
Tower 1 2 3 2 3
Foundation supply 1 3 3 2 4
Arrray and export supply 1 1 1 1 3
Offshore substation supply 1 2 2 3 2
Onshore infrastructure 2 4 4 4 2
Turbine and floating foundation
installation
1 2 2 2 2
Array and export cable installation 1 2 1 2 4
Offshore and onshore substation
installation
1 2 2 2 2
Wind farm operation 1 2 4 3 3
Turbine maintenance and service 1 2 4 4 4
Balance of plant maintenance 1 2 3 3 3
Decommissioning 1 2 1 2 2
• Generally, limited local supply and not high
government focus on developing supply
• Philippines will benefit from growing supply chain in
East-Asia
• Potential for the Philippines’ shipyards to construct
installation and service vessels for the industry

9. • Significant upgrades required over next 30 years
(not just for offshore wind)
• Current plans from NGCP are a good first step, but
bigger 2050 vision needed to support energy
transition
• Significant stretches of proposed loops could be
subsea - some offshore wind projects will connect
to offshore transmission hubs
• Requires strategic planning alongside plans for
offshore wind development
• Financing and timing of transmission network
upgrades will be critical
A. Northwest Luzon
(~3GW)
D. Southern Mindoro (~28GW)
B & C. Manila and
Northern Mindoro
(~6GW)
E & F. Guimaras and
Negros/Panay (~3GW)

10. • 7 ports identified for construction / manufacturing
• Most need minor to moderate upgrades (<$50m)
• All ports considered are privately owned
• Good capabilities for shipbuilding and fabricating
large structures
• Ports are close enough to most proposed WESC
sites and potential OSW development zones,
except northern Luzon (+500km) and west coast
• Southern Mindoro zone is +300km from these
major ports which could be challenging
Tsuneishi Heavy
Industries, Balamban
Hanjin Heavy
Industries Shipyard
A. Northwest Luzon
(~3GW)
D. Southern Mindoro (~28GW)
B & C. Manila and Northern
Mindoro (~6GW)
E & F. Guimaras and
Negros/Panay (~3GW)

11. 1. The Philippines has abundant offshore wind resources and could
generate over 20% of its electricity by 2050
2. Offshore wind can improve energy security, substantially reduce carbon
emissions by displacing coal, and avoid taking large areas of land
3. Majority of energy potential is in deep water. 85% of projects likely to be
floating wind which is a rapidly maturing technology
4. It could bring numerous socio-economic benefits and inward investment
5. Already significant private sector interest; +30GW under development
6. Roadmap identifies six potential development zones
7. World Bank Group is keen to continue supporting the Philippines
Credit: MVOW – Aberdeen Bay OWF

12. Credit: AWEA – Block Island OWF
MARIA AYUSO OLMEDO
ENERGY SPECIALIST, IEAE, WORLD BANK
MARK LEYBOURNE
SENIOR ENERGY SPECIALIST, ESMAP, WORLD BANK