1.Juhayna Food Industries - Valuation Update - October 2016

PRIME INVESTMENT RESEARCH
FOOD & BEVERAGE |EGYPT
JUHAYNA FOOD INDUSTRIES – VALUATION UPDATE
OCTOBER 30, 2016
Source: Bloomberg
JUHAYNA FOOD INDUSTRIES …
FX PRESSURES PUTTING PROFITABILITY MARGINS AT STAKE …
“BUY”
MARKET PRICE EGP 3.87
FAIR VALUE EGP 5.00
POTENTIAL 29% UPSIDE
INVESTMENT GRADE
“VALUE”
Stock Data
Outstanding Shares [Mn] 941.4
Mkt. Cap [Bn] 3.64
Bloomberg – Reuters JUFO EY / JUFO.CA
52-WEEKS LOW/HIGH 3.6 – 8.49
DAILY AVERAGE TURNOVER (‘000S) 4,816.7
Ownership
Pharon Investments 52.22%
BoD 0.85%
Free Float 46.93%
We published our Re-initiation of Coverage for Juhayna Food Industries (JUFO.CA) in February 2016. At that
time, our Fair Value stood at EGP 6.98/share. We believe that a valuation update is necessary at the current
time. The new value reflects the changes that took place with respect to the risk free rate, the exchange
rates, the company’s pricing strategy and the CAPEX plans.
We update our Fair Value for Juhayna Food Industries with a “Buy” rating driven from an upside
potential of 29%; driven from our estimated Fair Value of EGP 5.00. Using the DCF valuation methodology
for Juhayna, we utilized an average WACC over our forecasted horizon of 16.73%, a risk free rate of
13.20%, and a market risk premium of 8%. We used the average F&B Sector Beta which is equivalent to
0.68. We applied a multiple-stage growth model:
- 2016 - 2020: we forecasted full financial statements, as the company will witness hyper growth rates.
- 2021 - 2025: we assumed FCF to grow at a high rate of 8%.
- 2026 - Infinity: the terminal value of the company is based on a perpetual growth rate of 5%.
Value (EGP / Share) Upside Potential
100% DCF 5.00 29%
100% P/E Multiple 5.29 37%
50% DCF / 50% P/E Multiples 5.15 33%
2016 could be considered the worst year for the F&B sector on the EGX. The stocks of Juhayna Food
Industries (JUFO.CA), Edita Food Industries (EFID.CA) and Arabian Food Industries - Domty - (DOMT.CA) lost
50%, 49% and 49% respectively of their values since the beginning of 2016, where on the other hand the
EGX30 gained 18% during the same period.
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
JUFO EGX30 Rebased
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16
JUFO EFID DOMT EGX30
1

OCTOBER 30, 2016
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG & PRIME ESTIMATES
The severe drop in prices in the local F&B stocks, especially Juhayna have made them appear very appealing to
investors, as they currently trade at low P/E multiples, when compared to their global peers.
Company Name P/E - 2016 (x)
Global Peers
Huishian Dairy 48.59
Bright Dairy 46.82
Danone 29.66
Saputo Inc 26.50
Dairy Crest Group 22.17
Vietnam Dairy 21.93
Maeil Dairy Industry Co Ltd 20.76
Dean Foods Co. 16.11
Synlait Milk Ltd. 14.55
China Dairy 3.10
Median Global Peers 22.05
Regional Peers
Al Marai 24.36
Agthia Group 19.87
Halwani Bros. 17.47
Jordan Dairy 16.83
Sadafco 15.43
Savola 14.95
Median Regional Peers 17.15
Local Peers
Edita Food Industries 18.7
Arabian Food Industries - Domty 16.1
Median Local Peers 17.4
Juhayna Food Industries 15.99
2

OCTOBER 30, 2016
JUFO VS. EGX 30 INDEX – 2010-2016 YTD
JUFO STOCK PERFORMANCE - 2016
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
Since Juhayna’ listing on the EGX in 2010, the stock’s performance has usually been better than that of the EGX30,
however, 2016 has been different. Many negative incidents have led the stock’s price to deteriorate, including:
1. Poor 2Q2016 results – August 2016.
2. Exclusion from the EGX 30 Index – August 2016.
3. Exclusion from the FTSE Russel Index – September 2016.
4. Poor 3Q2016 results – October 2016.
13%
-49%
48%
20%
31%
-22%
18%
30%
-36%
104% 102%
-18% -15%
-50%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EGX30 JUFO
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Poor
2Q2016
Results
Exclusion
from
EGX30
Exclusion
from FTSE
Russell
Index
Poor
3Q2016
Results
3

OCTOBER 30, 2016
Financial Statements … Historical & Forecast
Income Statement Brief Hist. Forecast
In EGP Mn 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Revenues
4,231 4,898.2 5,879.7 6,702.1
Change
15% 16% 20% 14%
COGS
2,558.8 3,159.9 3,830.6 4,408.6
Change
2% 23% 21% 15%
Gross Profit
1,672.4 1,738.2 2,049.1 2,293.5
Depreciation & Amortization
204.3 235.6 266.3 299.6
EBITDA
863.4 768.4 933.4 1,010.8
Net Income (Before Minority Interest)
279.9 228.0 361.9 432.9
Net Income (After Minority Interest)
279.9 227.8 361.6 432.6
Net Attributable Income
279.8 205.4 325.9 389.9
NPM 7% 5% 6%
6%
Balance Sheet Brief Hist. Forecast
In EGP Mn 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F
Cash
794.9 192.9 238.9 253.9
Net Receivables
171.9 201.3 241.6 275.4
Net Inventory
606.9 703.4 771.4 854.5
Other Current Assets
16.1 1.1 1.3 1.5
Total Current Assets
1,589.8 1,098.6 1,253.2 1,385.4
Net PPE
2,761.2 2,968.3 3,373.2 3,267.6
Other LT-Assets
644.2 699.7 199.7 199.7
Total Long Term Assets
3,405.5 3,667.9 3,572.9 3,467.3
Total Assets
4,995.3 4,766.6 4,826.1 4,852.7
Liabilities
STD - incl CPLTD
916.9 1,084.6 1,048.8 963.7
Accounts Payable
199.4 207.7 251.8 289.8
Total Current Liabilities
1,307.02 1,455.4 1,499.8 1,481.9
Total Long Term Liabilities
1,265.3 845.5 601.2 375.4
4

OCTOBER 30, 2016
SOURCE: JUHAYNA & PRIME ESTIMATES
SOURCE: JUHAYNA & PRIME ESTIMATES
Total Liabilities
2,572.3 2,300.9 2,101.01 1,857.3
Equity
Paid-in-Capital
941.4 941.4 941.4 941.4
Reserves
798.3 812.3 823.7 841.7
RE
682.5 712.04 960.05 1,212.3
Total Equity
2,422.9 2,465.7 2,725.1 2,995.4
Financial Ratios Hist. Forecast
GPM
40% 35% 35% 34%
EBITDA Margin
20% 16% 16% 15%
NPM
7% 5% 6% 6%
EPS
0.30 0.24 0.38 0.46
DPS
0.15 0.08 0.13 0.18
P/E
13.02 15.99 10.07 8.42
EV/EBITDA
5.6 6.0 4.6 3.9
ROA
6.20% 4.11% 6.84% 8.08%
ROE
12.20% 8.43% 13.21% 14.36%
Debt / Equity Ratio
Total Assets Turnover
52.98% 49.61% 42.04% 33.67%
0.85 1.03 1.22 1.38
5

OCTOBER 30, 2016
PRICE HIKES’ TIMELINE
REVENUE CONTRIBUTION (%) – 9M2016
REVENUE CONTRIBUTION (%) – 3Q2016
REVENUES - EGP MN.
Financial Analysis & Key Highlights:
Revenues:
Financial Analysis & Key Highlights:
Revenues:
1,259 1,135
3,696
3,103
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
3Q2016 3Q2015 9M2016 9M2015
Juhayna was able to achieve healthy growth rates in revenues during the 3Q2016
and the 9M2016. During the 3Q2016, the company achieved revenues of EGP
1,259mn versus EGP 1,135mn during the same period a year earlier, showing a
growth rate of 11%. During the 9M2016, the company achieved revenues of EGP
3,696mn, against EGP 3,103mn during the same period a year earlier, showing a
growth rate of 19%. The largest contributor to revenues remained to be the dairy
segment, contributing 51% to revenues, followed by the juice and yogurt
segments contributing 23% and 22% respectively during 3Q2016. As for the
9M2016, the revenue contribution is also led by the dairy segment with a
contribution of 47%, followed by the yogurt and juice segments with 25% and
22% respectively.
This rise in revenues came on the back of both; volumes and prices. During the
1Q2016, the company did not raise the price of any of its products, yet it ceased
all the promotions / offers that it used to offer to customers. Starting April, the
company decided to gradually raise prices on all of its products, where each
month, the company would raise the blended average price by 2-5%. The
management believes that raising the prices gradually is better than raising the
prices in a single price hike with regards to customers’ perceptions and
competition. The company expects to keep raising prices in this manner in the
comping 5-6 quarters. During the 2Q2016, the company raised the average
blended price by 6%, divided equally on 3 months. Meanwhile, during the
3Q2016, the company followed suit where it raised the average blended price by
6-7%, where prices rose by 4% and 2-3% during July and August respectively.
During October the company managed to further increase the average blended
price by 5% and the management intends to keep raising prices in the same
manner each month till the end of year. The management targets to raise prices
by 30% throughout 2016; meaning that prices will increase by a further 8%
during November and December.
On a segment level, the company was able to raise the prices the most for the
juice segment, followed by the dairy and yogurt segments. During the 9M2016,
the company raised the prices of the juice, dairy and yogurt products by 14%,
11.5% and 3.5% respectively. During the 10M2016, the company raised the
prices of the juice, dairy and yogurt products by 25%, 19% and 5% respectively.
Dairy , 51%
Yogurt ,
22%
Juice, 23%
Concentrat
es , 2%
Agriculture
, 0.3% Arju, 1.7%
Dairy , 47%
Yogurt ,
25%
Juice, 22%
Concentrate
s , 2%
Agriculture
, 2% Arju, 2%
0% 0% 0%
2% 2% 2%
4%
2 - 3%
0%
5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1Q2016
No price hikes - Only freezing of
Promotions / Offers
2Q2016
The blended average price rose
by 6%, with an equal increase of 2%
per month
3Q2016
by 6-7%, with an increase of 4%
and 2-3% during July and August
respectively.
4Q2016
by 5% during October and the
management intends to keep
raising prices each month till
the end of year.
6

OCTOBER 30, 2016
DAIRY – REVENUES – EGP MN.
YOGURT – REVENUES – EGP MN.
JUICE – REVENUES – EGP MN.
CONCENTRATES – REVENUES – EGP MN.
AGRICULTURE – REVENUES – EGP MN.
SOURCE: JUHAYNA
Dairy:
The dairy segment showed a healthy growth in revenues. Dairy revenues stood at EGP 636mn
and EGP 1,744mn during 3Q2016 and 9M2016 respectively. The growth in revenues was
mainly driven by an increase in prices, as prices in the dairy segment rose by 11.5% during the
9M2016.
Yogurt:
The yogurt segment‘s revenues dropped in 3Q2016 by 5% y-o-y, while it grew in 9M2016 by
14%. The yogurt revenues stood at EGP 283mn and EGP 923mn during 3Q2016 and 9M2016
respectively. The drop in revenues in 3Q2016 was due to the effect of the Holy month of
Ramadan. Ramadan is considered the peak season for yogurt sales. The majority of Ramadan
occurred during the second quarter of 2016, where Ramadan was divided between the second
quarter and the third quarter in 2015. The management was hesitant to increase prices for
yogurt, as consumers tend to be quiet price sensitive with respect to yogurt; when the
company increased the yogurt prices by 25% in 2013, the company lost market share and the
volumes were hit severely. Consequently, during the 9M2016, the yogurt prices were
increased by the lowest rate, 3.5% and thus the 14% increase in yogurt sales was mainly driven
by an increase in volumes.
Juice:
The juice segment showed the largest growth among the main company’s segments, growing
by 22% and 38% during the 3Q2016 and 9M2016 respectively. The juice segment’s revenues
stood at EGP 293mn and EGP 812mn during the 3Q2016 and the 9M2016 respectively. The
company was able to increase the prices of the juice products the most, where the juice prices
rose by 14% during the 9M2016 and it was able to further increase the prices in October by
more than 10%, reaching an aggregate increase of 25% during the 10M2016. Even though the
22% growth rate that was achieved in 3Q2016 is considered good, it is much lower than the
rate of the previous 2 quarters; the growth rates in the juice segment during the 1Q2016 and
2Q2016 were 62% and 42%. This is mainly due to the high base effect, where the juice
segment was expanded to a large extent during the 3Q2015.
Concentrates:
The concentrates segment showed the highest growth among all the sectors during the
3Q2016 and the 9M2016, growing by 58% and 60% respectively. The concentrates revenues
stood at EGP 20mn and 87mn during the 3Q2016 and the 9M2016 respectively. This is mainly
due the new concentrates’ production line that was added in El Marwa factory, which almost
increased the production capacity by 50%.
Agriculture:
The agriculture segment’s revenues dropped during 3Q2016 by 33%, yet it grew during the
9M2016 at a healthy rate of 10%. The agriculture segment’s revenues stood at EGP 4mn and
EGP 59mn during the 3Q2016 and the 9M2016 respectively. The drop in the segment’s
revenues was mainly due to some changes that occurred with respect with the types of fruits
produced and their implied seasonality.
Arju:
Revenues from Juhayna’s VC - Arju – stood at EGP 22mn and EGP 77mn during the 3Q2016
and the 9M2016 respectively. Arju’s revenues appeared for the first time during the 1Q2016.
At the beginning of 2016, the management had a target of achieving revenues from Arju of
almost EGP250mn, yet it was revised down two times; where at the end it was set at EGP
100mn. The below-expectations performance of Arju was mainly due to the FX crunch and
some disruptions with imports.
Arju’s Second Phase: It is worthy to note that the company bought a plot of land in order to
construct a new production plant for the Arju new products. Construction is expected to begin
early 2017 and production is expected to start during 2018, which is consistent with the VC’s
initial plan.
636 579
1,744
1,595
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
3Q2016 3Q2015 9M2016 9M2015
283 296
923
813
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
3Q2016 3Q2015 9M2016 9M2015
293
241
812
587
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
3Q2016 3Q2015 9M2016 9M2015
20
13
87
55
0
20
40
60
80
100
3Q2016 3Q2015 9M2016 9M2015
4 6
59
54
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
3Q2016 3Q2015 9M2016 9M2015
7

OCTOBER 30, 2016
WHOLE MILK POWDER -WMP – PRICES – USD/MT
SOURCE: GLOBAL DAIRY TRADE
COGS:
Juhayna’s COGS were negatively affected during the 3Q2016 and the 9M2016, increasing by 22% and 28% respectively. The increase
in COGS surpassed the increase in revenues, affecting the company’s margins. The hike in COGS is mainly affected by the FX
exposure. The company has a very high negative exposure to FX. Moreover the non-EGP revenues represent a minimal 3% of the
total revenues, where it only covers c2-5% of the company’s FX requirements. Since the 2Q2016, the company started resorting to
the parallel market, where the spread between the official market and the parallel market rates had a range of 40-55%. Since then,
the company secures c90% of its FX requirements from the parallel market, at a rate of 12-13 EGP/USD.
The company is subject to exchange rate risk, as 60% of the direct raw materials are imported, which represent almost 50% of the
total COGS. The management is trying to “localize” more of the direct raw materials and it has a target of reaching 50% instead of
60% within one year in order to reduce its exposure to FX. The localizing of the raw materials will be mainly directed towards the
concentrates segment; currently 50% of the mango concentrates are imported from India and the management seeks to localize it
100% within one year. Meanwhile, the management seeks to depend more on their local dairy farm to secure raw milk, in case the
prices of powder milk keep on increasing at faster than anticipated rates. Also, the company is currently trying to secure the
packaging materials for yogurt (plastics) locally.
Gross Profit:
Even though the company raised the prices among all of its products, it was unable to pass all the increase in COGs to consumers,
which consequently affected the company’s margins. The company achieved a gross profit of EGP 380mn and EGP 1.1bn during the
3Q2016 and 9M2016 respectively. The company’s GPM stood at 30% during the 3Q2016 and 9M2016 respectively, versus 37% and
35% during 3Q2015 and 9M2015 respectively.
Dairy Farm:
Juhayna’s dairy farm remains to be on top of the management’s priorities. Currently the herd consists of 2,500 Holstein milking cows
and 1,000 Holstein non-milking cows (50% are pregnant and the remaining 50% are female babies). It is expected that the cows herd
will reach 4,000 milking cows by late 2016 / early 2017, post receiving one or two shipments. After the first phase will be completed
(reaching a herd of 4,000 milking cows), the phase will be evaluated and the beginning / postponement of phase 2 will be decided
upon the first phase’s evaluation.
Inventory of Powder Milk:
Juhayna has powder milk stock that is sufficient for production till June 2017. It is worthy to note that the powder milk prices started
to pick up since July 2016, where prices hiked by 20-30% since July till October. The hike in prices is simply a matter of supply and
demand and it is somehow a rebound after the huge drop in powder milk prices that took place in 2015. According to management,
the outlook for powder milk prices is currently quiet unclear, however they expect prices to have an average of USD 3,000/MT in
2017. Any increase in the prices of the powder milk would have a negative impact on the company’s margins, and the impact would
be further enlarged incase further EGP devaluation / floatation occurs as the powder milk is entirely imported.
2,453
2,148 2,260
2,304
2,210
2,188 1,952
1,890
1,974
1,971
2,013
2,156 2,176
2,252 2,205
2,118
2,062
2,079
2,265
2,695 2,793
2,782
2,681
2,760
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16
8

OCTOBER 30, 2016
Sales & Distribution Expenses:
The sales and distribution expenses had a major impact on the company’s performance. The company’s sales and distribution
expenses rose by 13% and 29% during 3Q2016 and 9M2016 respectively. The company recorded EGP 197mn and EGP 601mn in
3Q2016 and 9M2016 respectively as sales and distribution expenses. The rise in the sales and distribution expenses is due to the fact
that the company increased its distribution fleet (vans and trucks) by 20% since the beginning of 2016. Moreover, the sales and
distribution expenses is directly related to sales, so its increase is also a result of the increase in sales, yet the sales and distribution
expenses as a percentage of revenues increased in 3Q2016 and 9M2016, as it stood at 15.6% and 16.25% in 3Q2016 and 9M2016
respectively, against 15.3% and 15% during the comparable periods a year earlier.
Financing Income & Financing Expenses:
The net financing expenses increased during the 3Q2016 and 9M2016. The company incurred net financing expenses of EGP 66mn
and EGP 163mn during the 3Q2016 and 9M2016, growing by 45% and 29% respectively. The largest bulk is for the interest expenses;
which stood at EGP 71mn and EGP 191mn during 3Q2016 and 9M2016 respectively. The rise in the interest expense is due to the
variable interest rates which is linked to the corridor rate. The corridor rate in Egypt rose by c250bps throughout 2016. The current
cost of debt for the company stands at 14.5%. Moreover, the company obtained medium-term financing through Qatar National
Bank (QNB) and HSBC totaling EGP78mn during 2Q2016.
CAPEX:
Juhayna revised down its CAPEX plans for 2016 to EGP 500mn from EGP 640mn that was previously set. During 2016, the company
added 8 filling lines (3 for milk, 3 for juice and 2 for yogurt) and a single production line for concentrates. In the 9M2016, the
company invested EGP 408mn, where the company invested EGP 67mn in production, EGP 14mn in distribution and EGP 44mn in
farming. As the company increased the production capacity for all the segments during the last 2 years, the management believes
that such expansions are very sufficient during the coming few years and that CAPEX is expected to be relaxed during the coming
years.
Due to the FX crunch and somehow the lack of visibility, the management decided to postpone any major CAPEX projects that were
planned for 2017, suggesting that such projects (including capacity additions) may be revisited by 2H2018. In 2017, the company will
solely focus on completing the existing projects.
VAT:
Juhayna started to apply the Value Added Tax (VAT) starting September 2016. The effect of the VAT on the company is minimal –
less than 1% -, as dairy and yogurt are exempted. Even though the juice is subject to tax, each juice sub-category is subject to VAT in
a different manner. The pure juice, c.20% of the total juice sales, is subject to 13%, while on the other hand, the drink juice, c.80% of
the total juice sales, is subject to only 3% at the consumer level, where the other 10% would be paid by the company at the
concentrates level.
Market Shares:
Even though the competition is still very tough, the company remained to be a market leader in dairy and yogurt.
- Milk: The company’s market share advanced 3 points, standing at c66%. Al Marai and Danone remain to the be the company’s
main competitors.
- Yogurt: The company’s market share has been quiet consistent in the spoonable yogurt with a share of 33%. However, the
market share for the drinkable yogurt advanced by 9 points, standing at c44%. The increase in the drinkable yogurt came on
the back of the introduction of 2 new products; Mix Drinkable Yogurt and Zabado Plus. Danone and Lactalis remain to be the
main competitors for the spoonable and drinkable yogurt respectively.
- Juice: Competition is toughest in the juice category. Juhayna lost 2 points in the market share in juice, reaching 20%. The
deterioration in the market share is mainly due to Al Marai, who started offering a lowered priced product. Beyti and Faragello
remain to be the main competitors for Juhayna in the juice segment.
It is worthy to note that the management stressed that they have always had two main priorities; profitability and maintaining
market shares. However, in case the two priorities could not be attained in a certain period (such as the current period), the
management would take actions in favor of profitability against maintaining their market shares.
9

OCTOBER 30, 2016
Stock Recommendation Guidelines
Recommendation Target-to-Market Price (x)
Buy x > 15%
Accumulate 5%< x <15%
Hold -5% < x < 5%
Reduce -15% < x < -5%
Sell x < -15%
Strong Buy x > 40%
Investment Grade Explanation
Growth 3 Yr. Earnings CAGR > 20%
Value Equity Positioned Within Maturity Stage of Cycle
Speculative Quality Earnings Reflect Above Normal Risk Factor
10

OCTOBER 30, 2016
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