Network Evolution and Market Outlook

Network Evolution and Market Outlook
March 2017
Rohit Mehra
Research Vice President, Network Infrastructure

Agenda
§  Digital Transformation (DX): Need for Scale
§  Datacenter Networks- Impact from the
Growth of Cloud
§  Telecom Network Evolution
§  Enterprise Networks
•  SD-WAN & Cloud Apps
§  Final Thoughts

Organizations adapt to changes in their ecosystem by leveraging digital
technologies to create digitally enhanced, customer centric business models.
Create new
customer
experiences
Generate
new revenue
streams Rapidly
respond to
changing
conditions
Improve
operational
efficiencies
In this Digital Economy...
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Source: IDC
The Move to Digital Transformation

Digital Transformation is Everywhere
Sleep Number®
Mattresses
Sirona 3.8
Biogeneric Dental
Impression
System
Not a dental
scanner, but a
revenue center
Orthodonture platform
Not a bed, but a
cloud-connected
comfort and
fitness platform
Airbus A380
Not an airplane,
but a flying
datacenter
700+ applications
Cloud and IoT Driving Need for Scale

Disruption Landscape
Last October, Volvo
declared that it would pay
for any injuries or property
damage caused by its fully
autonomous IntelliSafe
Autopilot system, which is
scheduled to debut in the
company's cars by 2020.
Crowd Sourcing Experience Industry Cross over
Communities reduce
design times significantly
3D printed
§  BforBANK provides people
with a rich, interactive
experience and the same
tools as an asset manager
§  Helps people to become their
own money managers; their
own private bankers.
§  More than €3 billion in
deposits in four years

Leadership
Transformation
Omni-Experience
Transformation
Information
Transformation
Operating Model
Transformation
WorkSource
Transformation
19%of total DX
technology
spending in 2015
49%of total DX
technology
spending in 2015
3%
of total DX
technology
spending in 2015
1%of total DX
technology
spending in 2015
28%
of total DX
technology
spending in 2015
Today the Emphasis is on Experience and
Operating Models – the Digital Enterprise
$1.3T will be spent on
DX Initiatives in 2016

Leadership
Transformation
Omni-Experience
Transformation
Information
Transformation
Operating Model
Transformation
WorkSource
Transformation
25%
of total DX
technology
spending in 2020
33%of total DX
technology
spending in 2020
38%of total DX
technology
spending in 2020
3%
of total DX
technology
spending in 2020
1%of total DX
technology
spending in 2020
By 2020, We Move From Building the Digital Enterprise
to Building the Information-Based Enterprise

The Digital Divide is Developing
AD HOC
OPPORTUNISTIC
REPEATABLE
20%
34%
28% Digital Player
Digital Explorer
Digital Resister
12% MANAGED
OPTIMIZED5% Digital Disruptor
Digital Transformer
Source: IDC, Digital Transformation MaturityScape Benchmark, 2016. n=413
Showing the % of organizations in the world at each stage of Digital Transformation

DATACENTER/CLOUD:
NETWORK EVOLUTION

Public cloud has major and growing impact
on datacenter networking in 2016
§  Growth of major public-cloud
players, led by hyperscale,
commands greater attention
from the networking supply
chain, from vendors of
Ethernet merchant silicon to
ODM and OEM switch
vendors.
§  Innovations in the public cloud,
from containers to ODM
switching and network
disaggregation, are gradually
making their way to the
broader market.
Datacenter (Ethernet) switching expenditures by public cloud players will grow to nearly
$5 billion in 2020 delivering on scale and agility that enterprises can learn from

Public Cloud Datacenter-Network Spending
Reaches $4.6 billion in 2017
§  In 2021, public cloud exceeds spend on traditional
when it comes to overall DCN deployments
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
$18.0
$20.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Billions
Traditional DC Public Cloud Private Cloud

$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
$18.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Billions
Enterprise Communications SP Cloud Provider
WW Datacenter Networks Market by
Deployment Type, 2010-2020
13
Source: IDC’s Worldwide Datacenter Networks Qview

Cloud Drives Increasing Growth for 100GbE
§  Demand from cloud
providers increasingly
affects switch port-
shipment mix for
datacenter networks
§  Leaf-spine networks
proliferate in large cloud
datacenters
§  In 2016, 100GbE
shipments exceed
700,000 ports, grow to
nearly 10.5M ports in
2020
§  10GbE switch-port growth
plateaus during forecast
period
14
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Primary Use Cases for SDN and
Network Virtualization
§  Drivers are increased server virtualization and
adoption of 3rd Platform, especially cloud
§  Primary use cases are . . .
•  Business and Operational Agility – automate and
accelerate network provisioning, speed service
delivery
•  Security – microsegmentation to provide east-west
security in virtualized datacenter, security analytics
•  Business continuity/disaster recovery

Agility, Automation and Programmability,
Datacenter Security Key SDN Motivators
Q2. If you are implementing SDN, which of the following factors is the primary motivation?
30.7%
22.7%
22.7%
12.0%
4.0%
4.0%
2.7%
1.3%
22.9%
22.6%
28.7%
10.1%
9.2%
3.7%
1.8%
0.9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Need the network to have more agility to support
virtualization and cloud
Require better automation and programmability of
network for operational efficiency (OpEx gains)
To improve security in the datacenter (such as
microsegmentation)
Use SDN to address VLAN sprawl and complexity
Increase speed for provisioning the infrastructure
for application workloads
More easily scale the network to support various
and growing workloads
Use SDN to lower CAPEX (initial investment
costs in network hardware)
Simplify moves, adds, changes and
decommissions
Cloud Provider (N=75) Enterprise (N=327)
Source: SDN Survey, IDC, September, 2015
16
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WW Datacenter SDN Revenue 2020
Segmented – $12.5 Billion
SDN
Applications
28%
Physical
Networks
30%
Virtualization/
Control
19%
Professional
Services
23%

Open-Source Networking: Vendors Must
Look for Sustainable Value Creation
§  Community counts, it will decide winners
and losers
§  Traditional SPs leverage open-source
networking for cost savings, operational
efficiencies, scale their businesses cost-
effectively
§  Vendors must integrate with open source/
open systems where appropriate, focus on
areas where they can add value and
differentiate – application policy, analytics,
enhanced-management software, and
security
•  Not just bottom of the networking stack
18

Network Disaggregation Gets
MindshareQ23. As part of your network architecture, have you considered a hardware-agnostic, third-party network operating system, such as one from
Cumulus, Pluribus, Pica8 or Big Switch?
53.3%
37.3%
9.3%
44.0%
43.1%
12.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Yes
No
Not aware of this solution
Cloud Provider (N=75) Enterprise (N=327)
Source: SDN Survey, IDC, September, 2015
19

ODM-Direct (White box) Switching Grows,
Sees Limited Enterprise Adoption
§  ODM-Direct (White box) switches surpass $900
million in 2017, driven primarily by demand from
hyperscalers, public cloud, and some large
service providers.
§  ODM-Direct switches fail to make meaningful
headway in enterprise datacenters or campus
deployments in 2017.

ODM Direct Market Shares by Revenue,
2015 & 1H16 (%)
Celestica
32.0%
Quanta
31.0%
Delta
27.3%
Accton/
EdgeCore
9.5%
2015
Source: WW Datacenter Networks Qview
21
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Celestica
29.5%
Quanta
27.4%
Accton/
EdgeCore
24.3%
Delta
18.1%
Others
0.7%
1H16

Network Disaggregation: Value
Proposition, Addressable Market
•  Savings on CapEx, OpEx, biz and operational
agility
•  Run NOS on standardized network hardware provided by
multiple vendors
•  Simplified management
•  Reduced vendor lock-in
•  Reduced software/maintenance costs
•  Addressable market:
•  Large datacenters and/or datacenters that are critical to
business success (faster service delivery, agile delivery of
new services, etc.)
•  Datacenters where network changes occur relatively
frequently
•  Linux, DevOps shops, even relatively small ones

Brilliant Box: Enterprise Interest Not
Converted Into Enterprise Adoption
§  Enterprises are interested in brilliant box (OEM and
ODM switch hardware paired with third-party
network operating systems)
•  But interest has not translated into deployments
§  Challenges are mainly non-technical
•  Enterprise skill sets (Linux in networking department)
•  Cultural factors
•  Service and support
§  Some technical challenges
•  Hardware-reliability concerns
•  Software needs to be modular,
composable

TELECOM NETWORK EVOLUTION

Digital Experience in Telecom: The Shi5
§  To DX: Customer at
the Center of the
Business
§  From traditional:
Network at the Center
of the Business
Network
Network
Service
Omni-channel

Multi-service
IP/Optical
Virtualization
Existing &
New Services
CSP (Wireline and Wireless)
Network Transformation Goal
26
Programmable, Intelligent,
Automated, Open
2020 Highly Automated Networks
REALIZE NEW ADDITIONAL REVENUE STREAMS
30-40 %Network Utilization 60-80 %Network Utilization
Custom, Complex, Costly, Closed
Static Networks 2014
Source: IDC, September 2016

Worldwide Telecommunications 2017
Predictions

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Source:
IDC
FutureScape:
Worldwide
TelecommunicaAons
2017
PredicAons,
IDC
#US40848516,
November
2016
#IDCMWC16

@erainge

Note: The size of the bubble indicates complexity/cost to address

§ Non-telecom services revenue gaining momentum: MNS, hosting,
cloud, prof. services, security
§ Capex declined by 3.1% to $316.6B in 2015; biggest decline
since 2009 economic slowdown
§ Mobile voice increasingly becoming commoditized due to
saturation & fierce competition, growth driven by mobile data
§ Blended ARPU drivers: Competition, migration to shared data
plans, economic factors
§ Wireline services revenue declines in every market despite
growth in broadband revenue
§ Enterprise: Strong demand for VPNs, cloud, and steady growth
of collaborative services; regional CSPs finding niche success
Global
Wireless
Wireline
CSP Market Trends
28

CSP: Key Networking Priorities today
§  Retire legacy TDM network infrastructure and converge
access, aggregation, and edge networks to packet
optical and IP routers
§  Support multiple services such as Ethernet data, video,
MPLS VPN, cloud connect, and broadband Internet on
a converged IP network infrastructure
§  Develop new NFV-based virtual network services for
greater service agility and efficiency.
•  SD-WAN and vCPE
§  Enhance capacity in network core, edge and DCI to
accommodate the high growth rate in data applications,
converged networks, and higher bandwidth services
§  Prepare for 5G!

Worldwide Capex Spending Forecast
(Wireline and Wireless)
30
Source: Capital Expenditure Report, 2015-2020: Spending on ICT, Convergence Technology Continues to Be a Key Focus for CSPs (IDC
#US41401116, June 2016)
§  Converged IT infrastructure spending increases
§  White Box Switching, 400Gbps Ethernet
§  4G/LTE – Radio Access + Mobile Packet Core
§  5G Infrastructure
§  Software Platforms (analytics, automation, orchestration)
§  Converged Packet Optical/IP Routing

CSP Infrastructure Virtualization Outlook
Unified Integrated
Network
Data
centers
Mobile Core
Network
Datacenters
Business
Services
Network
Cloud
Isolated
31

Operations of NFV
IT & Network Priorities for Hybrid Environment vary
Which capabilities are priorities for investment to enable you to manage virtual and hybrid
services and network? 1= Lowest, 5= Highest
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
IT Respondent
Multi-technology, vendor agnostic OSS
Unified orchestration managing multiple orchestrators
Centralized orchestration, as a single system
Automated on-boarding of multi-vendor VNFs
Service creation capabilities
Near real-time, integrated view
Dynamic, real-time monitoring and assurance
Staff skills for NFV-based services
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
Network Respondent
Multi-technology, vendor agnostic OSS
Unified orchestration managing multiple orchestrators
Centralized orchestration, as a single system
Automated on-boarding of multi-vendor VNFs
Service creation capabilities
Near real-time, integrated view
Dynamic, real-time monitoring and assurance
Staff skills for NFV-based services
Lower
importance
to Ntwk
Highimportance
toIT
Lower
importance
to IT
Higherimportance
toNetwork
Source: IDC

Virtual Network
Functions
VNFs orchestrated and managed on abstracted
commodity hardware
Commodity servers
Commodity switches
Commodity storage
Classical Physical Network
Function (PNF) or Appliance
approach
Virtual Network Function (VNF)
approach
The Core and Edge are moving to
Virtual Network Functions
Source: IDC, Feb 2017

NFV Plans: Timeline
2015-early 2017:
§  Customer premise
equipment,
especially for
business customers
§  Evolved packet core
§  IMS linked to VOIP/
VoLTE
2017-2020:
•  Edge
•  IP Core
•  IMS
•  RAN/cloud RAN
•  EPC
Next 6 to 10+
years:
•  Limited visibility
•  Issues of reach,
DevOps are
expected to get
resolved,
automation
vCPE
1st

Virtual/Cloud-Managed Enterprise CPE
§  Move enterprise network functions from on-premise,
physical appliances to virtual, cloud-managed
•  Consolidates branch network technologies into one appliance/
platform running multiple VNFs
§  Provides simplicity, scalability, redundancy, and agility
IP or MPLS based
Service Provider
Network
SP Datacenter/
Cloud Platform
Enterprise
Branch
Loca:on

vCPE

Evolution of Managed Services
Software Defined WAN Network Function Virtualization
§  Transport agnostic
§  Manage App not CPE
§  Agile Delivery
§  Replace expensive CPE
§  On-demand service pricing
§  Manage virtual appliances (firewall, WanOp)

CSP SD-WAN – A Key Disruptor
§  Key WAN challenges:
•  Security, Delivering SaaS, Managing connectivity
•  Almost 50% of Apps accessed via Internet
§  Top SD-WAN use cases:
•  Multiple WAN providers, increased reliability, direct
SaaS provider access
§  Key SD-WAN components:
•  Security, WAN Optimization, Policy Control,
Automation
•  Vendor vs CSP SD-WAN solutions preferred (typical
of early stage)

38
Getting ready for 5G: Network Slicing
Source: IDC, Feb 2017
§  5G will require Carriers to deliver diverse use cases spanning the
latency and bandwidth spectrum
§  Network Slicing is key to this delivery

5G Ecosystem and Technology Enablers
LTE Advanced Evolution
Narrowband LTE
New Radio (NR)
Next Gen Core
Multi RAT Integration and management
mmWave
Massive MIMO and beamforming
Densification
Management and Orchestration
Open Source
Network Function Virtualization (NFV)
Software Defined Networks (SDN)
Network Slicing
Tactile Internet
Mobile edge Computing
Virtual and Augmented Reality
Artificial intelligence
Cloud
Big Data and Analytics
5G Ecosystem

Innovations in Open Source
Collaboration
§  Robust collaboration for CSP Operations
•  CSP-led industry consortia
•  Commercial supplier ecosystem programs
•  Projects emphasize Enterprise business services
§  Next phases will see consolidation of numerous
approaches

Networks
2020:
Compute
Everywhere,

Common
Access

CSPs
will
deploy

compute
resources

on
all
levels
of
the

network
to

support
their

internal
funcAons

and
services
for

their
customers

Services
will
uAlize

any
access
means

available,

governed
by

network
and

customer-‐centric

policies

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SoWware

Common
Infrastructure

Distributed

SDDC

Flexible

Converged

Transport

5G
Radio

Fixed

Access

Edge

CompuAng

VNFs

NG

OSS

Virtualized

Core

Common

Access

Big

Data

#IDCMWC16

@ehalilovicidc

ENTERPRISE NETWORK EVOLUTION

Enterprise Network Infrastructure Trends
§  Introduction of SDN for the campus
•  Powered through enterprise NFV
•  LAN and WLAN offerings
§  Cloud-managed networking offerings
grow
•  Metered networking
•  Customer trust and desire for cloud grows
§  Practical obsolescence of 802.11n WLAN
beginning in some markets
§  SD-WAN poised to shake up market
•  Connects edge to datacenter in new ways
•  Sets the stage for cloud-managed/virtual
CPE
§  M&A and consolidation
§  Industry ecosystem partnerships
•  To compete with #1 and #2 vendors

Mobility Meets Cloud in Virtuous Circle
Internet
Cloud Services
§ Management
§ Provisioning
§ Security
HQ Branch Offices, Remote
Sites, Mobile Workers
Private
Cloud/
Datacenter
Regional
Offices
Cloud Apps/SaaS
§ CRM
§ ERP
From Retail to Education to Healthcare, Enterprise IT is being challenged to
provide mobile access to cloud-based business and consumer applications
44

What Does the Digital Workplace
Require?
§  Mobile-first network design
•  Wireless is becoming primary access
method for enterprise networks
§  Latest Standards
•  Wave 1 vs. Wave 2
•  Emerging multi-gigabit Ethernet
§  Right mix of cloud services
§  Infrastructure convergence
•  Wired and Wireless
§  Optimization of network
intelligence
12

Key Use Cases That Heighten Need for
Network Transformation
46
Enterprise
Network
§  Continued adoption of mobile apps
and mobility-first architectures
§  Proliferation of collaborative (UC&C)
apps, including video conferencing
§  Optimized Access to Cloud Services,
including SaaS/Cloud providers
§  Simplified deployment/provisioning of
branch sites/applications
§  Rapid Response to Security threats
and vulnerabilities

Cloud Brings Changes to the WAN
Driving Need for SD-WAN
Q. You mentioned that you currently use cloud IaaS and/or SaaS. What changes have you made or do
you expect to make to your WAN as a result of your organization's cloud computing usage?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Increase access bandwidth (bandwidth from individual
sites into the network)
Increase core network bandwidth (bandwidth across the
WAN or VPN backbone)
Extend your network to the cloud provider(s) so the cloud
service appears within your private network
Use a quality of service (QoS) mechanism on your
network
Change your main WAN/VPN network service provider
Deploy WAN optimization or acceleration technology
No changes as a result of using cloud services
N=644
Base=Respondents currently using IaaS/SaaS cloud computing services/technologies
Source: U.S. Enterprise Communications Survey, IDC, December, 2015
47

Defining SD-WAN
§  Hybrid WAN
A hybrid WAN includes at least two WAN connections from
each branch office, leveraging two or more different access
technologies (MPLS, broadband Internet, 4G/LTE, etc.).
§  SD-WAN
SD-WAN leverages hybrid WANs, but includes a centralized,
application-based policy controller; analytics for application
and network visibility; a software overlay that abstracts and
secures underlying networks; and an optional SD-WAN
forwarder (routing capability) that together provides intelligent
path selection across WAN links, based on application policies
defined on controller.

Demand Drivers for SD-WAN
§  Enterprise WANs are costly
and complex to manage
•  15% of IT budgets
§  40-60 % of enterprise data
traffic is migrating from WANs
to the internet
§  Cloud drives requirement for
increased WAN agility and
flexibility
•  Use of different networks
(Internet broadband, 4G/LTE,
MPLS)
•  Automated provisioning
•  Specification and prioritization of
network connection on per-
application basis
•  Improved visibility

Key SD-WAN Considerations
Q. Which of the following attributes of an SD-WAN service or solution are the most important considerations when
choosing an SD-WAN solution for branch office connectivity? Rank order from 1 to 5 with 1 the most important.
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Flexibility to add/change bandwidth capacity in near real-
time
Flexibility to use different networks (e.g., Broadband,
MPLS, LTE) for application delivery
Lower WAN transport costs
Faster turn up (WAN provisioning)
Prioritize network connection by application type or
workload
Policy-based intelligent path selection
Optimizing WAN traffic by latency, jitter, packet loss
Reduce dependency on the MPLS network
Reduce WAN-management complexity
Self-service portal
Total
N=744
Base=Respondents indicated organization plan to migrate existing WAN/network connections to a SD-WAN alternative within or more 2 years
Notes:
Source: U.S. Enterprise Communications Survey, IDC, December, 2015
50

Nearly 70% Expect to Use SD-
WAN in Next 18 Months
Q. Does your organization currently use or plan to use SD- WAN?
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Currently use
Plan to use in the next 12 months
Plan to use in 12-18 months
No plans to use
N = 605
Base=All Respondents
Notes: Managed by IDC's Quantitative Research Group.; Data Not Weighted; Use caution when interpreting small sample sizes.
Source: Software-Defined WAN (SD-WAN) Survey, IDC, April, 2016
51

Source: IDC, 2016
Pure-play SD-WAN SolutionsWAN Infrastructure, WAN Optimization-
based SD-WAN Solutions
Emerging
SD-WAN
Market
Landscape
Cloud-managed SD-WAN ServicesManaged CSP SD-WAN Services
§  Cisco
§  Riverbed
§  Silver Peak
§  Juniper
§  Citrix
§  ALU/Nuage
§  Viptela
§  CloudGenix
§  VeloCloud
§  Versa Networks
§  Cybera
§  Talari
§  VeloCloud
§  CloudGenix
§  Riverbed
§  Versa Networks
§  Aryaka
§  Verizon
§  BT
§  Telstra
§  Orange Business
§  CenturyLink
§  SingTel
§  COLT
Emerging SD-WAN Landscape

*Source: Cloud and Drive for WAN Efficiencies Power Move to SD-WAN (IDC Doc #US41101416)
SD
WAN
§  SPs will leverage SD WAN
opportunity to offer value
added services around
applications, cloud connectivity,
bandwidth, orchestration
§  Important go-to-market strategy
for SPs to address on-going
MPLS market transformation
§  Opportunity to compete in SD
WAN market - forecast to grow
to $6 billion in 2020 (with a
93% 2015-2020 CAGR)*
Worldwide SD-WAN Equipment & Services
Revenue Explodes

Renaissance of [Campus Network]
Virtualization
§  Interest growing in virtualized converged branch
networking architectures
•  SDN ignites interest and enables network virtualization
§  “Enterprise” NFV garners attention
•  Routing, firewalling, and other functions
§  Virtualization feeds cloud-managed networking and vice-
versa- in a virtuous cycle

Enterprise Campus SDN Emerges
§  Some vendors have introduced
campus SDN solutions
•  Early adopters will be vital in
showcasing ROI/viability
§  New architectures meet old campus
challenges
•  Bandwidth/Performance
•  Application agility
•  Security
§  Datacenter SDN and SD-WAN
helping IT understand potential
benefits of Campus SDN
•  Appliance virtualization
•  End-to-end visibility
•  Automation and
programmability

Virtualized Network Appliances Viewed
Favorably
Q. Has/Will the adoption of SDN cause your organization to reassess or redeploy any of the following
physical appliances as virtual appliances (software)?
56.7
36.8
53.4
57.3
59.3
2.0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
WLAN controllers
Routers
Network management appliances
Network security appliances
WAN Optimization appliances
Other
N = 240
Source: IDC Campus Network Innovation Survey, IDC, October, 2015
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Many Delivery Paths for Cloud-
Managed Networking
Q. Who manages and operates your Cloud-managed WLAN infrastructure?
50.8
29.6
5.9
3.8
10.0
0.0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
WLAN Solution/Equipment Vendor
Major Telecom Services Provider
Third Party Managed Services Provider
Systems Integrator/VAR
Self-operated (IT Dept.)
Don't Know
N = 198
Source: IDC Campus Network Innovation Survey, IDC, October, 2015
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Worldwide Enterprise Network
Infrastructure Forecast by Technology
58
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Billions
L2-3 Switch ADC ADCaaS Router
WLAN WAN Optimization IP Telephony Enterprise Video & TP
FC & Infiniband Switch NVO/SDN Controller

Essential Guidance
59
§  Digital Transformation is a critical
industry imperative
•  The “3rd Platform” is transforming the
network’s importance to business
§  Network transformation is a key
requirement in this evolution
§  SDN/NFV is an architectural
response to these requirements,
driven by increased cloud
adoption and the need to bring
agility to IT/Network Ops

Network Evolution and Market Outlook

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