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The	
  tough	
  questions	
  you	
  face	
  

• We	
  map	
  the	
  interdependencies	
  in	
  large	
  complex	
  portfolios	
  to	
  
enable	
  better	
  decision	
  making.	
  
• Tough	
  questions	
  we	
  answer:	
  
– Need	
  to	
  optimize	
  project	
  spend	
  -­‐	
  	
  how	
  will	
  this	
  impact	
  other	
  projects?	
  
– A	
  large	
  project	
  is	
  struggling	
  –	
  what	
  risk	
  does	
  that	
  represent	
  for	
  the	
  portfolio?	
  
– Our	
  project	
  managers	
  aren’t	
  seeing	
  the	
  ‘big	
  picture’	
  –	
  how	
  do	
  we	
  
communicate	
  interdependencies?	
  

• How	
  do	
  we	
  improve	
  decision	
  quality?	
  
– See	
  example	
  below…	
  

	
  www.optimice.com.au
	
  

1
	
  
Scenario	
  –	
  “Cut	
  10%	
  off	
  the	
  $16mill	
  project	
  portfolio	
  investment!”	
  
IDEA / PROJECT

Investment
C (thousands)

NPV (thousands)

NPV/C

Strategic fit

is dependent
upon:

A

$

300.00

$

1,200.00

4.0

9

B, I, K, O

B

$

240.00

$

466.00

1.9

8

A, I, K, O

C

$

100.00

$

367.00

3.7

6

J, W, Y

D

$

120.00

$

330.00

2.8

6

L, V

E

$

700.00

$

2,770.00

4.0

7

-

F

$

800.00

$

1,560.00

2.0

8

U

G

$

872.00

$

1,500.00

1.7

3

N, X

H

$

50.00

$

400.00

8.0

7

P

I

$

1,400.00

$

3,500.00

2.5

5

A, O

J

$

2,500.00

$

4,000.00

1.6

7

W, Y

K

$

400.00

$

500.00

1.3

5

A, B, I, O
-

L

$

985.00

$

680.00

0.7

9

M

$

350.00

$

500.00

1.4

4

-

N

$

950.00

$

1,450.00

1.5

6

G, K, U, W, X

O

$

232.00

$

1,600.00

6.9

7

A, B, I, K

P

$

554.00

$

1,600.00

2.9

8

F

Q

$

400.00

$

2,650.00

6.6

6

W, X

R

$

562.00

$

3,000.00

5.3

9

P

S

$

391.00

$

120.00

0.3

7

D, L, V
E, K, M, U, Z

T

$

160.00

$

450.00

2.8

9

U

$

400.00

$

2,000.00

5.0

7

-

V

$

843.00

$

1,900.00

2.3

6

D, L

W

$

620.00

$

1,900.00

3.1

7

A, J, X

X

$

720.00

$

46.00

0.1

7

-

Y

$

871.00

$

676.00

0.8

7

Traditional	
  list:	
  
Very	
  hard	
  to	
  
quickly	
  
understand	
  
impacts	
  and	
  
dependencies.	
  
	
  
Which	
  project(s)	
  
would	
  you	
  
choose?	
  
	
  
…then	
  look	
  at	
  
next	
  slide…	
  

C, W

	
  www.optimice.com.au
	
  

2
	
  
Visualising	
  project	
  interdependencies	
  
Mapping	
  allows	
  decision	
  makers	
  to	
  see	
  connections	
  and	
  thus	
  impacts	
  on	
  
projects.	
  Highlighted	
  projects	
  will	
  not	
  impact	
  the	
  portfolio	
  if	
  removed.	
  

Arrows	
  point	
  from	
  a	
  
dependent	
  project	
  to	
  
a	
  project	
  that	
  is	
  
depended	
  upon	
  
Strategic	
  
Importance	
  	
  	
  	
  
Low	
  

High	
  

Circle	
  Size	
  =	
  Initial	
  Investment	
  
	
  www.optimice.com.au
	
  

3
	
  
Map	
  =	
  Decision	
  Quality	
  
• 264	
  separate	
  experiments	
  conducted	
  by	
  University	
  of	
  Technology	
  Sydney	
  has	
  
proven	
  that:	
  
“The	
  use	
  of	
  [Visual	
  Portfolio	
  Maps]	
  is	
  correlated	
  with	
  the	
  
highest	
  levels	
  of	
  decision	
  quality“	
  

Killen,	
  C,	
  2013,	
  “Visualizations	
  of	
  project	
  interdependencies	
  for	
  portfolio	
  decision	
  making:	
  Evaluation	
  through	
  decision
	
  	
  
experiments”,	
  Decision	
  Sciences	
  Institute	
  Annual	
  Conference,	
  Baltimore	
  Maryland
	
  

Map
	
  

List
	
  

	
  www.optimice.com.au
	
  

Matrix
	
  

4
	
  
Project	
  meta-­‐data	
  
• Only	
  a	
  few	
  simple	
  data	
  points	
  provide	
  deep	
  insights	
  into	
  the	
  portfolio	
  structure	
  
About	
  each	
  project	
  
Strategic	
  Fit	
  
•  High	
  
•  Medium	
  
•  Low	
  

Budget	
  
•  $	
  
•  NPV	
  
•  Etc.	
  

Benefit	
  
•  High	
  
•  Medium	
  
•  Low	
  

About	
  each	
  dependency	
  
Importance	
  
•  Critical	
  
•  Important	
  
•  Minor	
  

Risk	
  
•  High	
  
•  Medium	
  
•  Low	
  

Type	
  
•  Outcome	
  
•  Resource	
  
•  Etc.	
  

Project	
  A	
  

Project	
  A	
  

Project	
  B	
  
	
  www.optimice.com.au
	
  

5
	
  
Explore	
  online	
  
• Explore	
  example	
  online	
  
map	
  at:	
  
www.optimice.com.au/
projectinterdependencies.
php	
  

See	
  example:
	
  
www.optimice.com.au/projectinterdependencies.php
	
  
	
  www.optimice.com.au
	
  

6
	
  
More	
  information	
  
• Contact	
  Cai	
  Kjaer	
  for	
  a	
  confidential	
  discussion	
  
– cai.kjaer@optimice.com.au	
  or	
  +61	
  411	
  569	
  594	
  
– Visit	
  www.optimice.com.au/projectinterdependencies.php.	
  

• Where	
  does	
  this	
  come	
  from?	
  
– Optimice	
  and	
  University	
  of	
  Technology	
  Sydney	
  (Australia)	
  have	
  
researched	
  the	
  power	
  of	
  visualising	
  project	
  interdependencies	
  over	
  a	
  
2	
  year	
  period.	
  
– Winner:	
  Best	
  Technical	
  Paper	
  at	
  the	
  APMI	
  conference	
  in	
  2010	
  
– International	
  recognition:	
  Published	
  in	
  the	
  International	
  Journal	
  of	
  
Project	
  Management	
  in	
  2012.	
  
– Results	
  of	
  264	
  experiments	
  demonstrates	
  that	
  visual	
  maps	
  of	
  
interdependencies	
  are	
  far	
  more	
  effective	
  than	
  traditional	
  methods.	
  
These	
  exciting	
  results	
  are	
  presented	
  at	
  the	
  Decision	
  Sciences	
  
Institute's	
  annual	
  conference	
  in	
  November	
  2013.	
  

	
  www.optimice.com.au
	
  

7
	
  

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Faster and better project portfolio decisions

  • 1. The  tough  questions  you  face   • We  map  the  interdependencies  in  large  complex  portfolios  to   enable  better  decision  making.   • Tough  questions  we  answer:   – Need  to  optimize  project  spend  -­‐    how  will  this  impact  other  projects?   – A  large  project  is  struggling  –  what  risk  does  that  represent  for  the  portfolio?   – Our  project  managers  aren’t  seeing  the  ‘big  picture’  –  how  do  we   communicate  interdependencies?   • How  do  we  improve  decision  quality?   – See  example  below…    www.optimice.com.au   1  
  • 2. Scenario  –  “Cut  10%  off  the  $16mill  project  portfolio  investment!”   IDEA / PROJECT Investment C (thousands) NPV (thousands) NPV/C Strategic fit is dependent upon: A $ 300.00 $ 1,200.00 4.0 9 B, I, K, O B $ 240.00 $ 466.00 1.9 8 A, I, K, O C $ 100.00 $ 367.00 3.7 6 J, W, Y D $ 120.00 $ 330.00 2.8 6 L, V E $ 700.00 $ 2,770.00 4.0 7 - F $ 800.00 $ 1,560.00 2.0 8 U G $ 872.00 $ 1,500.00 1.7 3 N, X H $ 50.00 $ 400.00 8.0 7 P I $ 1,400.00 $ 3,500.00 2.5 5 A, O J $ 2,500.00 $ 4,000.00 1.6 7 W, Y K $ 400.00 $ 500.00 1.3 5 A, B, I, O - L $ 985.00 $ 680.00 0.7 9 M $ 350.00 $ 500.00 1.4 4 - N $ 950.00 $ 1,450.00 1.5 6 G, K, U, W, X O $ 232.00 $ 1,600.00 6.9 7 A, B, I, K P $ 554.00 $ 1,600.00 2.9 8 F Q $ 400.00 $ 2,650.00 6.6 6 W, X R $ 562.00 $ 3,000.00 5.3 9 P S $ 391.00 $ 120.00 0.3 7 D, L, V E, K, M, U, Z T $ 160.00 $ 450.00 2.8 9 U $ 400.00 $ 2,000.00 5.0 7 - V $ 843.00 $ 1,900.00 2.3 6 D, L W $ 620.00 $ 1,900.00 3.1 7 A, J, X X $ 720.00 $ 46.00 0.1 7 - Y $ 871.00 $ 676.00 0.8 7 Traditional  list:   Very  hard  to   quickly   understand   impacts  and   dependencies.     Which  project(s)   would  you   choose?     …then  look  at   next  slide…   C, W  www.optimice.com.au   2  
  • 3. Visualising  project  interdependencies   Mapping  allows  decision  makers  to  see  connections  and  thus  impacts  on   projects.  Highlighted  projects  will  not  impact  the  portfolio  if  removed.   Arrows  point  from  a   dependent  project  to   a  project  that  is   depended  upon   Strategic   Importance         Low   High   Circle  Size  =  Initial  Investment    www.optimice.com.au   3  
  • 4. Map  =  Decision  Quality   • 264  separate  experiments  conducted  by  University  of  Technology  Sydney  has   proven  that:   “The  use  of  [Visual  Portfolio  Maps]  is  correlated  with  the   highest  levels  of  decision  quality“   Killen,  C,  2013,  “Visualizations  of  project  interdependencies  for  portfolio  decision  making:  Evaluation  through  decision     experiments”,  Decision  Sciences  Institute  Annual  Conference,  Baltimore  Maryland   Map   List    www.optimice.com.au   Matrix   4  
  • 5. Project  meta-­‐data   • Only  a  few  simple  data  points  provide  deep  insights  into  the  portfolio  structure   About  each  project   Strategic  Fit   •  High   •  Medium   •  Low   Budget   •  $   •  NPV   •  Etc.   Benefit   •  High   •  Medium   •  Low   About  each  dependency   Importance   •  Critical   •  Important   •  Minor   Risk   •  High   •  Medium   •  Low   Type   •  Outcome   •  Resource   •  Etc.   Project  A   Project  A   Project  B    www.optimice.com.au   5  
  • 6. Explore  online   • Explore  example  online   map  at:   www.optimice.com.au/ projectinterdependencies. php   See  example:   www.optimice.com.au/projectinterdependencies.php    www.optimice.com.au   6  
  • 7. More  information   • Contact  Cai  Kjaer  for  a  confidential  discussion   – cai.kjaer@optimice.com.au  or  +61  411  569  594   – Visit  www.optimice.com.au/projectinterdependencies.php.   • Where  does  this  come  from?   – Optimice  and  University  of  Technology  Sydney  (Australia)  have   researched  the  power  of  visualising  project  interdependencies  over  a   2  year  period.   – Winner:  Best  Technical  Paper  at  the  APMI  conference  in  2010   – International  recognition:  Published  in  the  International  Journal  of   Project  Management  in  2012.   – Results  of  264  experiments  demonstrates  that  visual  maps  of   interdependencies  are  far  more  effective  than  traditional  methods.   These  exciting  results  are  presented  at  the  Decision  Sciences   Institute's  annual  conference  in  November  2013.    www.optimice.com.au   7