Carrying capacity of the planet
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Carrying capacity of the planet. Annukka Berg. Design for Sustainability Summit, University of Helsinki, 12.9.2019
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Carrying capacity of the planet
- 1. Annukka Berg, D.Soc.Sc. Finnish Environment Institute Design for Sustainability Summit 12.9.2019 Carrying capacity of the planet
- 2. 2 Planetary Boundaries – A safe operating space for humanity (J. Lokrantz/Azote based on Steffen et al. 2015.)
- 3. 3 IPCC 2018: Limiting global warming to 1.5°C The effects of climate change roughly double if the warming exceeds 2°C. The current commitments by the governments are insufficient and will lead to global warming of > 3°C
- 4. 4 IPBES 2019: 1 million species threatened by extinction Global rate of species extinction tens to hundreds of times higher than normal Around 25 % of species in assessed animal and plant groups are threatened by extinction unless action is taken
- 5. 5
- 6. 6
- 7. 7 Combatting climate change is not enough. We need to cut natural resource consumption and to cope with a myriad of social and ecological challenges simultaneously.
- 8. 8 Good news first. In countries such as Finland, political climate is favourable. There are plenty of solutions available. In many cases, ecological options are also socially and economically favorable in the long run.
- 9. 9 There are great opportunities for promoting circular economy since “the world is only 9% circular and the trend is negative” The Circularity Gap Report (de Wit et al. 2018)
- 10. ● Circular economy, enabled by the technology revolution, allows Europe to grow resource productivity by up to 3 % annually ● GDP increase of as much as 7 percentage points relative to the current development scenario • Primary resource benefit of as much as €0.6 trillion per year by 2030 • €1.2 trillion in non-resource and externality benefits • additional positive impacts on employment. 10 Circular economy as an opportunity Ellen MacArthur Foundation et al. 2015
- 11. 11 Then bad news. We should change immense systems. To some, change means losses. Challenges intertwine. We are running out of time.
- 12. 12 Being overly optimistic might not be intellectually honest.
- 13. 13 Some important questions that design could answer
- 14. ●Picture the needed change understandably ●Design new solutions intuitive, appealing and easy to use ●Ensure the process is inclusive for also the marginalized groups 14 How to …?
- 15. 15 What is fundamental for us as human beings?
- 16. 16 How to proceed by experimenting with the possible results?
- 17. 17 How to bring beauty and clarity in difficulty and mess?
Notes de l'éditeur
- https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/planetary-boundaries.html
- The report highlights a number of climate change impacts that could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C, or more. For instance, by 2100, global sea level rise would be 10 cm lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared with 2°C. The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once per century with global warming of 1.5°C, compared with at least once per decade with 2°C. Coral reefs would decline by 70-90 percent with global warming of 1.5°C, whereas virtually all (> 99 percent) would be lost with 2°C. “The good news is that some of the kinds of actions that would be needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C are already underway around the world, but they would need to accelerate,” said Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Co-Chair of Working Group I. The report finds that limiting global warming to 1.5°C would require “rapid and far-reaching” transitions in land, energy, industry, buildings, transport, and cities. Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching ‘net zero’ around 2050. This means that any remaining emissions would need to be balanced by removing CO2 from the air. “Limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared with 2°C would reduce challenging impacts on ecosystems, human health and well-being, making it easier to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals,” said Priyardarshi Shukla, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group III. https://www.ipcc.ch/2018/10/08/summary-for-policymakers-of-ipcc-special-report-on-global-warming-of-1-5c-approved-by-governments/ --- IPCC 2018: Ilmaston lämpeneminen pitää pysäyttää 1,5 asteeseen. Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset karkeasti ottaen tuplaantuvat, jos maapallon lämpötila nousee 2 C. Maailman maiden tämänhetkiset lupaukset päästövähennyksistä taas tarkoittavat yli 3 C-asteen lämpenemistä. Raportissa nostetaan esiin erityisesti merenpinnan nousu, napajäätiköiden sulaminen ja koralliriutat. Merenpinta nousisi noin kymmenen senttimetriä vähemmän, jos lämpeneminen jäisi 1,5 asteeseen. Pieneltä kuulostava ero tarkoittaa käytännössä, että arviolta 10 miljoonaa ihmistä säästyisi merenpinnannousun aiheuttamilta riskeiltä maailmanlaajuisesti. Koralliriutat tuhoutuisivat "vain" 70-90 prosenttisesti 1,5 asteessa. Puoli astetta enemmän taas tuhoaisi ne täysin. Päästöjä täytyy vähentää erittäin rajusti jo lähivuosina. Raportin mukaan 1,5 asteen tavoitteessa pysyminen tarkoittaisi sitä, että maailmanlaajuiset nettopäästöt täytyisi kääntää jyrkkään laskuun jo vuonna 2020. Täyteen päästöttömyyteen pitäisi päästä vuoteen 2050 mennessä. Haastetta kuvaa se, että päästöt pitäisi poistaa 20 vuotta aiemmin kuin tähän saakka on kaavailtu. IPCC:n mukaan esimerkiksi ruuantuotanto ja puhtaan veden saatavuus ovat turvatumpia 1,5 asteen maailmassa kuin kahden asteen tasolla. Lisäksi satojen miljoonien ihmisten köyhyysriski pienenisi erityisesti kehitysmaissa. 1,5 asteen tavoitteessa pysyminen tarkoittaisi esimerkiksi sitä, että uusiutuvan sähkön kuten aurinko- ja tuulivoiman osuus nousisi yli 80 prosenttiin sähköntuotannosta globaalisti. Maailmaan pitäisi istuttaa Euroopan kokoinen metsä
- Human actions threaten more species with global extinction now than ever before. An average of around 25 per cent of species in assessed animal and plant groups are threatened (Figure SPM.3), suggesting that around 1 million species already face extinction, many within decades, unless action is taken to reduce the intensity of drivers of biodiversity loss. Without such action, there will be a further acceleration in the global rate of species extinction, which is already at least tens to hundreds of times higher than it has averaged over the past 10 million years. https://www.ipbes.net/global-assessment-report-biodiversity-ecosystem-services --- IPBES 2019: Jopa miljoonaa lajia uhkaa sukupuutto Ihminen on vaikuttanut merkittävästi kolmeen neljäsosaan maaympäristöistä ja kahteen kolmasosaan meriympäristöistä. Samalla ihminen on hävittänyt lajeja ja luontotyyppejä sekä heikentänyt lajien elinympäristöjä. Maailmanlaajuisesti suurimmat suorat syyt luonnon köyhtymiselle ovat raportin mukaan muutokset maa- ja merialueiden käytössä, eläinten ja kasvien liiallinen hyödyntäminen esimerkiksi ylikalastamalla, ilmastonmuutos, saasteet ja vieraslajit. Luonnon köyhtymisen suurimpia taustasyitä ovat yhteiskunnalliset ilmiöt, kuten ylikulutus ja väestönkasvu. Global Assessment -raportti tarkastelee luonnon tilassa tapahtuneita muutoksia viimeisen viidenkymmenen vuoden ajalta. Raportti on koottu noin 15 000 tieteellisestä lähteestä ja hallitusten tuottamista raporteista sekä alkuperäiskansojen ja paikallisten yhteisöjen tiedoista. Kaikki IPBES:n täysistuntoon Pariisissa osallistuneet yli 130 jäsenmaata hyväksyivät raportin yksityiskohtaisen neuvottelun lopputulemana.
- https://circulareconomy.europa.eu/platform/en/news-and-events/all-news/2019-circularity-gap-report-reveals-world-only-9-circular-and-trend-negative The Circularity Gap Report 2019 finds that the global economy is only 9% circular - just 9% of the 92.8 billion tonnes of minerals, fossil fuels, metals and biomass that enter the economy are re-used annually. Climate change and material use are closely linked. Circle Economy calculates that 62% of global greenhouse gas emissions (excluding those from land use and forestry) are released during the extraction, processing and manufacturing of goods to serve society’s needs; only 38% are emitted in the delivery and use of products and services. Yet global use of materials is accelerating. It has more than tripled since 1970 and could double again by 2050 without action, according to the UN International Resource Panel.
- “… new evidence that a circular economy, enabled by the technology revolution, allows Europe to grow resource productivity by up to 3 percent annually. This would generate a primary resource benefit of as much as €0.6 trillion per year by 2030 to Europe’s economies. In addition, it would generate €1.2 trillion in non-resource and externality benefits, bringing the annual total benefits to around €1.8 trillion versus today. This would translate into a GDP increase of as much as 7 percentage points relative to the current development scenario, with additional positive impacts on employment.” - Ellen MacArthur Foundation et al. 2015