Main demographic changes of Puerto Rico.

1. The Demography of Puerto RicoBy Raúl Figueroa-Rodríguez, MS
Puerto Rico lost over 7% of its population in 10 years.
Three demographic events characterize the
situation in Puerto Rico:
 Massive emigration
 Declining birth rates
 Fast aging of the population
The island reached its highest population in
the year 2004 (3,826,878 inhabitants).
Since then, there has been a constant
decline of the population. The total
population of Puerto Rico for the year 2014
was 3,548,397, a decline of 7.3% when
compared to the year 2004 (Figure 1).
The exodus of youth people is the main
reason Puerto Rico is losing population and
aging faster than expected. Additionally,
emigration contributes to lower birth rates.
Because of that, the birth rates of Puerto
Rico are similar to the birth rates of more
developed countries. We expect that the
number of births will fall below the number
of deaths in two or three years.
Figure 1. Total population, Puerto Rico 2000-
2014
Figure 2. Net migration, Puerto Rico 2005-2013

2. 2
Fast aging of the population
The aging of the population has a significant impact on the society. The U.S. Census Bureau
estimated that between 2000 and 2013, the number of people under 15 years of age
declined 27.2%. This has become the fastest declining population age group in Puerto Rico.
This age group should fall below the population 65 years of age or more before the year 2020
(Figure 4).
We project that the group of people with less than 15 years of age will be reduced by more
than 380,000 people between 2005 and 2025. During the same period of time, we project
the group of people between 15 and 34 years of age will decline by more than 300,000.
Figure 3. Births and mortality rates, Puerto Rico 2005-2013
Figure 4. Population projections for specific age groups,
Puerto Rico 2015, 2020 and 2025
17.9%
16.6%
15.2%
16.7%
18.3%
19.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2015 2020 2025
Percentofthetotalpopulation
Less than 15 years of age 65 or more years of age

3. 3
The changes in the age structure of the population impact many aspect of society, especially
the economy. For example, the aging of the population changes the production and
consumption patterns. Therefore, the decrease in labor force should be a major concern. In
February 2015, Puerto Rico had a low labor force participation rate of 40.1%. Retirements
and migration are some factors impacting the labor force. This trend will continue unless
there is a reverse in migration patterns.
The demographic changes also influence the consumption patterns. For instance,
demographics changes affect the housing market. The existing inventory of houses greatly
exceeds the demand. Currently, there is a large inventory of housing units for sale. New
and existing housing units compete in a shrinking market, and a significant part of the
possible buyers are moving to the states. One of every five housing unit in Puerto Rico are
vacant, and more are entering the market because of the emigration and deaths.
The demographic changes will impact other areas like education and health. The
government is making some adjustments to address the issue of the demographic changes.
Yet, I do not believe they are prepared and aware of what is going to happen.
Due to the aging of the population, at some point, the number of deaths will increase. This
will contribute to the decline in population. Whenthat occurs, the island will experiment a
natural decrease of the population. If the migration patterns stay constant, this will speed
up the decrease of the population.
Sources:
U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey and Population Estimates.
Puerto Rico Department of Health. Divisionof Statistics.
Puerto Rico Department of Work and Human Resources.
Raúl Figueroa Rodríguez, MS
Data Scientist/ Demographer
(787) 675-7503
raul.figueroa@outcomeproject.com
www.outcomeproject.com