Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation developed a real-time adverse event predictive model to identify patients at high risk of readmission. The model screens all hospital admission patients over 18 for risk factors from their demographics, medications, clinical data and consults high-risk patients. Since implementation, the model has reduced readmissions by over 25%, saved over 400 staff hours per year, and is estimated to save $1.3 million annually by preventing adverse drug events and $456,000 through reduced readmissions.
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Reducing Adverse Drug Event Related Readmissions
1. Real-Time Adverse Event Predictive Model Reduces
Readmissions
Dr. Manjula Julka, Vice President Clinical Innovation, PCCI
Kristin Alvarez, Associate Pharmacy Director, Parkland Hospital
COPYRIGHT 2019 PCCI. All Rights Reserved.
2. National Burden – Hospital Readmissions
Private Pay:
$785M
Medicaid:
$839M
Medicare:
$4.3B
Readmissions
$41.3B
COPYRIGHT 2019 PCCI. All Rights Reserved.
3. 3rd
leading cause
of death
Increases
LOS by
2-3 Days
Increases cost
by
$16K-$24K
Increases risk
for
readmission
Any harm or injury that
results from medication use
ADE
INCIDENCE
Adverse Drug Events cost
$3.5B annually
What is an ADE?
COPYRIGHT 2019 PCCI. All Rights Reserved.
4. COPYRIGHT 2019 PCCI. All Rights Reserved.
58-66%
Reduction Med
Discrepancies
Lower preventable
ADEs
(1.76 times)
Cost less
(Pharm Tech/Pharm
Student)
Reduce ED
Visits/Readmissions
Identify Errors
(4.5 times)
Pharmacy-led Interventions are more likely to…
5. • 870-bed acute care hospital Level 1 Trauma Center
• Ambulatory Care
o 120 specialty clinics
o 12 community-based clinics
o 12 school-based clinics
o Mobile units
• Dallas County Jail health care
• Over 10.5 million prescriptions (FY2017)
• 250,000+ ED visits
Parkland Hospital
COPYRIGHT 2019 PCCI. All Rights Reserved.
6. AGILE ⃘ DESIGN THINKING ⃘ INNOVATION ⃘ COLLABORATION
ADVANCED DATA ARCHITECTURE & AI PLATFORM
MISSION: Reimagine and expand the knowledge base of healthcare
through prescriptive analytics and artificial intelligence to deliver
precision medicine.
Parkland Center for Clinical Innovation
COPYRIGHT 2019 PCCI. All Rights Reserved.
13. End-User Epic* View
Deliver
Real-Time ADE predictive Risk Integration
ACTIONABLE DATA INSIGHTS
Model screens every hospital admission patient ≥18
BUILD
COPYRIGHT 2019 PCCI. All Rights Reserved.
14. Risk Focused Care
Model identifies patients at high-risk
for ADE at admission
Very high risk 6X more likely to be
consulted than low risk patients
MEASURE
3.2%
14.5%
17.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Low High Very High
%Consulted
Top 10%*
(6,275)
*Real-time predictive score AUC
= 0.74
COPYRIGHT 2019 PCCI. All Rights Reserved.
18. Model Impact
↑ Patient Safety
↓ 914 minor ADE
↓ 134 major ADE
↓ Readmissions by 25%+
↓ ED visits
REAL-TIME
EPIC-INTEGRATED
• 62,037 patients screened
• 6,275 identified
• 2,775 consulted
• 6X more likely ‘Very High Risk’
consults
• Saved 432 hours/FTE/year
• NNT=25
Resource
Utilization
Clinical
Outcomes
Operational
Outcomes
Cost
Savings
*AHRQ estimates based on cost of ADE prevented and ** HCUP_AHRQ estimates, through reduction in 30-day readmission rate +Relative reduction
SUSTAIN
$ 1.3 M savings* (ADE)
$ 38 K (savings in FTE hours)
$ 456 K savings ** (Readmissions)
Potential for $5.6 M per year
COPYRIGHT 2019 PCCI. All Rights Reserved.
19. Take Home Points
• End-user engagement
• Timely communication
• Proactive monitoring
• Seamless integration
• Scale and Sustain
With special thanks to Inpatient Pharmacy and IT team
COPYRIGHT 2019 PCCI. All Rights Reserved.
Sixty-three percent of the 3.3M patients readmitted to hospitals annually are avoidable. Costing $3.5 billion at approximately $5.6 million per hospital, adverse drug events (ADE) significantly contribute to readmissions and are the leading cause of preventable patient harm. PCCI developed and operationalized a real-time predictive algorithm that identifies newly hospitalized patients at high risk for an ADE and facilitates timely pharmacy-led interventions to improve outcomes. In just one hospital, the model, which is integrated with the EHR, screens on an average 65,000 inpatients annually, preventing potential ADEs, decreasing cost of care and demonstrated significant reduction in 30-day readmission rates. The innovation is easily replicable and scalable across settings. This presentation also illustrates use of design thinking framework and end user collaboration from idea to impact.
Sepsis is one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. There are more than 750,000 sepsis hospitalizations in the United States annually that cause approximately 200,000 deaths. Early detection and treatment is key to lowering mortality rate since every hour of delay increases the odds of mortality by 20%. But detecting sepsis in an inpatient setting is challenging – the symptoms can be confounded with other conditions and patients can deteriorate rapidly. Traditional risk models such as SIRS criteria to detect sepsis generate a lot of false positives leading to inefficient and ineffective care as well as nursing fatigue.
PCCI developed a predictive model to fulfil the criteria identified above. This meant a model designed to predict in real-time the individual risk of a patient becoming septic in the next 12 hours. The PCCI sepsis model is baked into clinical workflows through industry standard APIs. The statistical performance of the model and its integration into workflows differentiates this work from many other sepsis related models and published work.