Germany has ambitious long-term energy goals to transition to renewable energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This includes increasing renewable electricity to 80% and cutting energy consumption in half by improving efficiency. A phase-out of nuclear power by 2022 was accelerated after Fukushima. Public support for renewable energy is high due to environmental and safety concerns about nuclear power. The transition faces challenges including managing fluctuations in renewable energy, rising costs, and ensuring grid stability. Reforms are underway to reduce subsidies and encourage more direct marketing of renewable energy while still expanding clean energy.

1. Die „Energiewende“ - Energy Transition in Germany
Dr. Thomas Henzschel
Head of Economic Section
German Embassy Stockholm
1

2. A new Industrial Age
Germany's long-term energy goals up to 2050
• Secure a reliable, economically viable and
environmentally sound energy supply,
thereby ensuring energy security and
climate protection
• Create an energy-efficient and green
economy with competitive energy prices
and a high level of prosperity
2

3. A new Industrial Age
Germany's long-term energy goals up to 2050
•
Secure a reliable, economically viable and environmentally sound energy supply, thereby
ensuring energy security and climate protection
•
Create an energy-efficient and green economy with competitive energy prices and a high
level of prosperity
➢
Electricity consumption to be 80 % renewables
➢
Cut into half energy consumption (ref. 2008)
➢
2022 nuclear free
➢
➢
maintain the existing broad societal consensus,
including industry
master the existing and arising challenges
(political, economical, social)
3

4. Zick-Zack yes, but no “U-turns”
• 1998 new “Red-Green” government
• 2000 first Renewable Energy Act
• phase-out deal between government and energy
industry “Atomkonsens”
• Germany already in 2002 decided to phase out
nuclear energy – Nuclear Energy Act
4

5. 2002 Phase-out scenario
Source: Institute for Applied Ecology
5

6. Zick-Zack yes, but no “U-turns”
• 1998 new “Red-Green” government
• 2000 first Renewable Energy Act + phase-out deal
between government and energy industry
“Atomkonsens”
• Germany already in 2002 decided to phase out
nuclear energy – Nuclear Energy Act
•
•
•
•
2003 shut down of nuclear power plant in Stade
2005 shut down of nuclear power plant in Obrigheim
2009 new liberal-conservative government
2010 → new Energy Concept: “one of the most
energy efficient and environementally friendly
economies in the world”
6

7. Energy concept 2010 - objectives
•
Reduction of greenhouse gases (2020: 40 %, 2030: 55 %, 2040:
70 %, 2050: 80-95 %)
•
Expansion goals for renewable energy
➢
Gross final energy consumption (2020: 18 %, 2030: 30 %, 2040:
45 %, 2050: 60 %)
➢
Gross electricity consumption (2020: 35 %, 2030: 50 %, 2040:
65 %. 2050: 80 %)
•
Reduction of heating needs (2020: 20 %, 2050: 80 % [primary
energy needs] / Doubling of energy-related renovations: from today‘s
1% to 2% p.a.
•
Reduction of primary energy consumption by 20 % (2020) and by
50 % (2050)
•
Increasing energy productivity by 2.1 % p.a.
•
Reduction of electricity consumption 10 % (2020), 25 % (2050)
•
E-Mobility: one million e-cars by 2020
7

8. 2010 Phase-out scenario
Source: Institute for
Applied Ecology
8

9. Fukushima 2011
• new comprehensive risk analysis – decision against
taking the residual risk
• 8 oldest of Germany’s 17 reactors were disconnected
right away
• 6th August 2011 modification of nuclear energy act phase-out of remaining 9 nuclear plants until 2022
• all major political parties agreed + eminent
public support
9

10. German Public Opinion
•
Long tradition of civil resistance against huge scale projects like
nuclear power plants, nuclear reprocessing plants
•
Risk of accidents with potentially uncontrollable consequences (for
large areas and extended periods of time)
•
No viable solution for long term storage of nuclear waste
10

11. Popular Support for Nuclear Energy - SWE
11

12. Popular Support for Nuclear Energy - GER
12

13. Current Phase-out scenario
Source: Institute for Applied Ecology
13

14. The Renewable Energy Revolution
14

15. The Renewable Energy Revolution
2013
23,4 %
2012
22,8 %
15

16. The Renewable Energy Revolution
16

17. The Renewable Energy Revolution
• renewable energy legislation (Renewable Energies
Act, EEG)
• Off-shore Wind Energy Program with a credit
volume of € 5 billion
• new off-shore grid connection plan to improve
coordination of expansion in this sector
• enhance the sustainable and efficient use of biomass
through a consistent, cross-sectoral strategy
• etc.
17

18. Economic Effects - Export
• German export-based economy is positioning itself
as an innovator in green technologies
• German PV production in 2012 = 60 % export
• wind industry’s current export ratio = 70 %
• in the market for energy efficiency products Germany
is at second place (20 % market share)
• midsize firms – the backbone of the German
economy benefit most
18

19. Economic Effects - Growth
19

20. Economic Effects – Employment
20

21. Economic Effects – Energy Trade
2013
77,3 TWh
exports
2013
43,0 TWh
imports
21

22. Challenges – Gird Expansion / Modification
link: www.netzausbau.de/english
22

23. Challenges – Gird Expansion / Modification
• electricity highways + strategic planning for the
development of a European smart grid by 2050
• development of national smart grids
23

24. Challenges – Gird Expansion / Modification
24

25. Challenges – Gird Expansion / Modification
• electricity highways + strategic planning for the
development of a European smart grid by 2050
• development of national smart grids
• IT use to manage el generation, storage, users, grids
• expansion of energy storage capacity
• unbundling of grid operation / production / sales
• innovative technologies for minimal losses
25

26. Challenges – An Unwanted Renaissance
45,5 %
26

27. Challenges – The Power Plant Gap ?
27

28. Challenges – The Power Plant Gap ?
28

29. Challenges – The Power Plant Gap ?
• government directive of a reserve capacity of power
plants (12 June 2013)
• Closing down of power plants has do be announced
one year in advance
• German Net Agency can prohibit the closing down of
“system relevant” structures (against compensation)
• number of closure applications manageable (41) / till
2018 overall increase of power
• = increase of the problem / commercial poker
• BUT long-term reluctance to invest
• world wide concern for stable energy supply through
liberalized markets
29

30. Challenges – Money Issues
• EU Commission investigation of energy rebates to
companies with high energy consumption
• Potential additional costs of billions of EUR to
German businesses
• Social question of rising energy prices
“Payments for renewable energy will cost each
household on average about 1 euro per month –
that’s as much as one scoop of ice cream.”
Jürgen Trittin, former Federal Environment Minister, Green Party, in July 2004
when Germany’s renewable energy Feed-In Act) was enacted
30

31. Challenges – Falling Prices / Rising Costs
“Now it costs as much as all items on the entire ice cream
menu”
Peter Altmaier, fr. Federal Minister of Environment, September 2013
Index of the electricity price development for households in Germany from
31
1998 – 2013 (1998 = 100). Source: statista

32. Challenges – Falling Prices / Rising Costs
32

33. Challenges – The Renewable Surcharge
33

34. Challenges – The Renewable Surcharge
Source: http://theenergycollective.com/schalk-cloete/326791/dissecting-germanys-eeg-surcharge
34

35. Challenges – The Curve of Success
35

36. Challenges – The “Curse” of Success
Source: www.germanenergyblog.de
36

37. A Must - Energy Efficiency
• enable companies and private consumers to tap
unexploited potential for energy efficiency
• new legal obligation to make energy efficiency a
criterion when awarding public contracts
• transparent national and European energy
consumption labeling of products
• greater market transparency
• export initiative “Efficiency – Made in Germany”
37

38. A Must - Building-Efficiency
(40 % of German energy consumption
= 1/3 CO2 emissions)
• world leader in “passive houses”
• building stock to be almost climate-neutral by 2050
• Long-term road map for building renovation: cut
primary energy consumption by 20 % by 2020 and 80
% by 2050 - remaining energy demand to be supplied
from renewable sources
• doubling of the current rate of building renovation
• tax relief for energy-saving upgrades
38

39. Energy Research
• Increased funding for research and development (R&D)
• New comprehensive Energy Research Program for the
period up to 2020 and core priorities for the period
thereafter
• Under the 6th Energy Research Programme, the Federal
Government has allocated approximately € 3.5 billion
for funding the research and development of energy
technologies between 2011 and 2014.
• Research platform “Forschungsforum Energiewende”
• National coordination group on energy research
• Support for German applicants participating in the EU’s
Strategic Energy Technology Plan
39

40. Energiewende Marketing Slogan or Coherent Policy ?
➢
➢
➢
stability of electricity provision
political coordination failures / role of the 16 Federal
States
intense battles of influential lobbying groups pro and
contra Energiewende
➢
citizen support vs. NIMBY-attitudes
➢
raising the consciousness for energy efficiency
➢
➢
International context / European market / effects on
neighbours
etc.
40

41. Energiewende - Here To Stay
➢
even the skeptics like the idea
➢
driven by citizens and communities
➢
“first mover advantage”
➢
➢
➢
➢
combination of regulation and open markets provide
investment certainty and allows small businesses to
compete with large corporations
expensive, but costs are not hidden and passed on to
future generations, but transparent and intermediate
it will get cheaper for others to follow (solar!)
disagreement about strategies BUT very unlikely that
Germany will reverse its course
41

42. The “Energiewende” - Next Steps
• new “super-”Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy
• new proposal for reforming the promotion and subsidy of
renewables on the table
➢
➢
expansion of solar and on-shore wind will be
capped to 2.500 MW each
off-shore should reach 6,5 GW in 2020
42

43. Next Steps - Wind
• 2.000 windmills / 10 Gw (= 5 nuclear plants) till 2020
• Today: Baltic and North Sea = 0,3 GW installed / 2,7
GW under construction
• many more windpark have construction permit – but
investors hesitate because of unclear future of the feedin system
• on-shore wind - planned expansion rate of 2,5 GW/year
was only met in 2003 and last year again
43

44. Next Steps - Solar
• solar boom years (2010 – 2012 alone more than 7 GW
installations) are over
• public subsidies into the solar industry had been heavily
cut in the last years / guaranteed feed-in price fell to
under 10 cents last October
44

45. Next Steps – Shrinking Feed-in
• new “super-”Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy
• new proposal for reforming the promotion and subsidy of
renewables on the table
➢
➢
expansion of solar and on-shore wind will be capped
to 2.500 MW each / off-shore should reach 6,5 GW in
2020
Feed-in guarantees to fall in average from 17
cent to 12 cent in 2015 (on-shore wind 9 cents)
45

46. Next Steps – More Direct Marketing
• new “super-”Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy
• new proposal for reforming the promotion and subsidy of
renewables on the table
➢
➢
➢
expansion of solar and on-shore wind will be capped
to 2.500 MW each / off-shore should reach 6,5 GW in
2020
compensation to fall in average from 17 cent to 12
cent in 2015 (on-shore wind 9 cents)
2015 obligatory direct marketing for 500 KWinstallations, 2017 for 100-KW / companies
that produce their own electricity will have to
pay the fee
46

47. Next Steps – New Renewable Legislation
• new “super-”Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy
• new proposal for reforming the promotion and subsidy of
renewables on the table
➢
➢
➢
➢
expansion of solar and on-shore wind will be capped
to 2.500 MW each / off-shore should reach 6,5 GW in
2020
compensation to fall in average from 17 cent to 12
cent in 2015 (on-shore wind 9 cents)
2015 obligatory direct marketing for 500 KWinstallations, 2017 for 100-KW / companies that
produce their own electricity will have to pay the fee
new renewable legislation: 1st August 2014
47

48. Thank you for your attention!
Dr. Thomas Henzschel
Head of Economic Section
German Embassy Stockholm
48

49. 49