On 29 March, nine months after the British electorate called for a withdrawal from the European Union, the British Government formally notified its intention to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

1. Brexitinperspective
Episode3:ThetriggeringofArt.50
AninsideviewfromBrusselsandLondon
March 2017

2. © Brunswick 2017 | 2
What has happened?
 The UK Government has formally
notifiedthe EuropeanCouncilof its
intention to withdrawfrom EU
membershipunder Article50 of the
LisbonTreaty. Thisprocessstartsan
officialcountdownto the UK leaving
the EU in two years’time.
 The EuropeanParliamentand
EuropeanCommissionwill now feed
into EU negotiatingguidelines,but the
remaining 27 Member States(EU27)
will actasthe ultimatepower broker.
What does the lettersay?
 The UK Government reiterates a
desirefor parallelwithdrawal and
futurerelationshipnegotiations.
 The UK will upholdall EU
membershipobligationsuntil it is
formallyoutsidethe EU (i.e.29 March
2019)
 The UK wantsa deep and special
partnership ineconomicand security
cooperation.The implicitlinking up of
thesetwo issuessuggestsa
negotiatingstrategywhichleverages
the UK’s security prowessagainstits
desirefor open accessto EU markets.
 In acknowledginga “need to discussa
fairsettlement of the UK’s rightsand
responsibilitiesasa departing
member state”the Government
acceptsthere will be a bill to be paid
on Brexit.
 The UK calls fora collaborative
approach to minimizedisruptionand
provideasmuchcertainty aspossible
to “investors,businesses and citizens
in both the UK and EU27.”
What is missing?
 The LancasterHousespeechindicated
the UK wouldseek some sortof
associatemembershipof the EU
CustomsUnion.Thisappearsto have
been dropped,in acknowledgement
thatit wouldrequire oversightfrom
the EuropeanCourtof Justice.
 There is no mention of immigration,a
cornerstoneof UK Government
rhetoric thusfar.EU leadershavesaid
thatfree movement rightsfor their
citizenswill be a key red line. This
suggestsa Government shiftin
thinkingfrom reassuringdomestic
votersaboutthe merits of Brexit,to
gearing up for negotiationswith the
EU27.
What are the nextsteps?
 The buildup to these guidelines has
been ongoing sincethe UK
referendum,and formal processes
shouldtakeplacequickly. The
Member Stateswill adopt someshort
guidelineson April 29,on whichthe
EuropeanCommissionwill make
recommendations. Afterthis,we can
expect Member Statesto adopt avery
long and detailednegotiatingmandate
for the Article50 TaskForce.
 If everythingproceedsat a reasonable
pace,the firstnegotiationmeeting will
takeplacein mid-June,followed by
subsequentmeetings (or “rounds”)on
a monthlybasis.
How long will it take?
 In totalwe expectthere to be 14-16
roundsbefore agreement isreachedin
October2018, when the final
withdrawal agreementratification
process begins.Everythingshould
concludewithina two-yeartimeframe.
 There is an optionto extend the two-
year withdrawalperiod,but it
requiresunanimousagreement from
all EU Headsof State and Government
and appearsunlikely.
On 29 March, nine
months after the
Britishelectorate
called for a
withdrawal from the
European Union, the
BritishGovernment
formally notifiedits
intentionto invoke
Article50 of the
Lisbon Treaty.
The stage is now set
for a two-year
divorce proceeding,
and – if there is
mutual support for it
– further
negotiations on a
newrelationship
withthe European
Union.
This two-year
negotiationperiod
willbe one of high
politics, focusing on
financial liabilities
and citizens’rights in
the early stages and
sectoral agreements
later on.
Businesswillneedto
use this periodto
strengthen tiesin
national capitals, in
preparation for
sector by sector
negotiations.

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What was the tone?
 In the monthsfollowingthe
referendum result,hardrhetoric has
been usedon both sidesof the
Channel – culminating, onthe UK side,
with the LancasterHousespeech
outliningthe UK Government
prioritiesfor the withdrawal.
 Today’s notificationletter strikesa
muchsoftertone.The letter balancesa
need to appearconciliatory to EU
leaderswhile preparinga British
audiencefor the realities of whatwill
be a compromisefinal agreement.
 TheresaMayis clearin the letter that
she wantsto concludeboth the exit
agreement and futurerelationship
withintwo years.Thisissomething
the EU leadershaveconsistentlyruled
out.
Domestic considerations
 The letter envisagesa return of
powersnot justto Westminster,but to
the UK devolvedinstitutions ina move
to temper pressurefrom nationalist
parties aroundBritain.
The Europeanresponse?
 DonaldTusk,EuropeanCouncil
President, reiteratedthatneither side
will “win” from Brexit.Instead,work
mustnow begin on divorce
proceedingswhichminimize
disruptioncausedby the decisionfor
citizens,businessesand Member
States.
 Unsurprisingly, theEuropean
Parliament’sdraftresolutiontakesa
hardview on EU principles and
sequencing.
 The key aim for the EU27is to
preservethe integrityof the EU – at
the moment member statesremain
united on this.
What will be discussed?
 Earlyroundswill focuson settling
contributionsto the EU budget,status
for EU citizenslivingin the UK and
viceversaand on the EU’sexternal
borders(particularly onthe island of
Ireland).Once agreement hasbeen
reachedon these,sectoraldiscussions
can start.
Who is at the tablefrom the EU side?
 The Article50 TaskForce,headedby
Michel Barnier,will leadthe formal
negotiations,with representatives
from both the Member State
ministerialbody (Council Presidency)
and the Presidencyof the European
Council(whichreportsto the Headsof
EU27Governmentsand States)
keeping tabson what ishappening.
Are both sideson the same page at
present?
 The perceptiongap between UK
Government and EU institutional
thinkingis wide,but narrowing.The
UK wants to negotiatewithdrawaland
a new agreement simultaneously,
somethingEU leadershaveruled out.
Barnier’slimitedmandateand the
UK’s insistenceon parallel
negotiationscouldstilllead to an early
collapseof talks, withthe UK walking
awayfrom the negotiationtable.
Politicalpressureand economic
necessityimpliesthatall partieshave
an incentiveto reachagreement. The
compromisecouldbe a limitedUK
paymentinto the EU budget and
informalparallel negotiationson the
futurerelationship.
Boththe UK
Government and EU
leaders have outlined
a needto prioritise
certainty and
minimise disruption
for investors,
business and citizens
throughout the
process.
Bothparties have
assessed that there is
a politicaland
economic necessity
in reaching an
agreement, reflected
by the soft tone of the
letter.
May’s more
conciliatory and
realistic letterwillbe
receivedmuch better
in Brusselsand
European capitals
than the Lancaster
House speech, giving
hope that
negotiations can
proceed amicably.
The key
disagreement willbe
over the sequence of
negotiations, and
whethera future or
interim relationship
– crucial to business
and trade – can be
negotiated at the
same time as the
withdrawal.

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Brexit in perspective
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Article 50 Timeline
NavigatingtheArticle50procedureagainsta
backdropofelections
9-10 March
29 March
UK notifies intent
to withdraw
from EU (Art.50)
EU 28 Informal Meeting
“Conclusion of a political reflection
on the future of the EU” (Rome);
60th Anniversary of the Rome
Treaty
May
UK local elections
15 March
Netherlands
general
election
23 April
First round of
French
Presidential
election
7 May
Second round of
French
Presidential
Elections
11/18 June
French legislative
elections
September
German Federal
elections
EU Level EU 27 UK
European Council
Meeting (Brussels)
25 March
28 January
Finnish
Presidential
elections
9 September
Swedish general
elections
April/May
Hungarian
legislative
elections
TBC October
Czech Presidential
elections
TBC October
Irish Presidential elections
29 March
Presumed date
Brexit takes
effect
2017
2019
EULevelUKEU27
Circulation of
revised EU draft
guidelines
19 April
4 April
European Parliament
Plenary (Strasbourg)
- Adoption of Brexit
resolution
26 April
Meeting of EU
Ambassadors (EU27)
European Council Meeting (excl.
UK)
- Adoption of negotiating
guidelines
29 April
22-23 June
European
Council
(Brussels)
Withdrawal
agreement
negotiations
October
TBC Czech legislative
elections
December
Review of deal by
lawyer linguists
19-20 October
European Council
(Brussels)
14-15 December
European Council
(Brussels)
2018
September
European Commission presents outcome of
negotiations to the European Council
October
EU27/UK Brexit deal
needs to allow six months
for ratificationWithdrawal agreement
negotiations
31 March
EU 27 issue draft
negotiating guidelines
May
European
elections
30 March
UK Government
White Paper on
Great Repeal Bill
presented
May
(tbc) Introduction of Great
Repeal Bill (Queen’s Speech)
29 March
(tbc) Great Repeal
Act enters into
force

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Brexit in perspective
© Brunswick 2016 | 5
EUinstitutions
EuropeanCouncil:FormationofEU
MemberStatesHeadsofStateand
Government.Theymeetatleastfour
timesayearandlargelysetthe
directionforfutureEUintegration.
EuropeanCouncilPresident:Donald
Tusk(Term–2.5Yearsrenewedin
March2017foranotherterm)
Sherpa:Personalrepresentativeofa
HeadofMemberStateorGovernment.
CounciloftheEuropeanUnion:Co-
legislatorforEuropeanlegislation,
madeupofministersfortheEU
MemberStates.Theytypicallysitin
formationswhichcorrespondtheir
portfolios.Headedby:Rotating
MemberState“Presidency”ofsix
monthterms.ThePresidencyroleis
largelyoneofcoordinationandagenda
setting.The“Presidency”country
coordinatesalllevelsofactivitywithin
theCounciloftheEU.
COREPER:Decisionsmadebynational
ministersintheCounciloftheEU
formationsarepreparedbygroupsof
nationalgovernmentofficials(the
PermanentRepresentatives
Committee).Theydivideintotwo
“ranks”ofnationalofficials.
COREPERII:Meetingof
ambassadorswhocovertopics
relatingtoforeignaffairs,justiceand
homeaffairsandeconomicand
financialaffairs.
COREPERI:Meetingofdeputy
ambassadorswhodealwithallother
areasofEUpolicymaking.
EuropeanCommission:TheEU’scivil
servicewhichdraftsandenforcesEU
legislation.
CollegeofCommissioners:The
EuropeanCommission’spolitical
leadershipduringafiveyearterm.It
compromisesonePresident,onefirst
Vice-President,fourVice-Presidents
andtwentyoneotherCommissioners
withapolicyportfolio.Thereisalsoa
HighRepresentativewhorepresents
theEUinternationally.
EuropeanCommissionPresident:
ThePresident‘sroleistodetermine
thepoliticaldirectionoftheEuropean
Commission,organizetheCollegeof
Commissionersandallocateportfolios
toitsothermembers.Current
President:Jean-ClaudeJuncker
EuropeanCommissionVice-
Presidents:Vice-Presidents are
Commissionerswhohavea
coordinationrolebetweentheworkof
Commissionerswithportfoliosthat
closelyinterlink.
EuropeanCommissioner: A
memberoftheCommissionCollege.
Theyareassignedresponsibilityfora
specificpolicyareaandoneormore
Directorates-General(DGs)bythe
EuropeanCommissionPresident.
Directorate-General(DG):A
EuropeanCommissiondepartment
akintoanationalministry.
Director-General: The most senior
civil servant position heading each
Commission ministry. Appointments
to this position require Member State
backing and are typically political in
nature.
Cabinet: The political staff of the
individual Commissioners who set the
aims to which the Commission DG
thenworkstowards.
European Parliament: Directly
electedchambermadeupof751MEPs
from all 28 Member States. These
national delegates then form EU-wide
political Groups which are made up
from across the EU. Current
President:AntonioTajani(EPP,IT)
Article50TaskForce:The“EU”side
ofthetableinBrexitnegotiations.
Madeupof politicalfiguresandcivil
servantsfromtheEuropean
Commission,andrepresentativesfrom
MemberStategovernments.
CouncilWorkingGrouponBrexit:
Formalformationfornational
representativesfromtheEU27
MemberStatestodiscussspecificsof
Brexitnegotiationsonarollingbasis.
UKinstitutions
PrimeMinister:HeadofGovernment
(and“Firstamongstequals”inthe
Cabinet)
Cabinet:Acollectivedecisionmaking
bodyformedofthemostsenior
Governmentministers.
CabinetOffice:Civilservice
department,whichsupportsthePrime
MinisterandCabinetofministers.
SecretaryofState:ACabinetMinister
inchargeofaGovernment
department.
PermanentSecretary:Mostsenior
civilservantinaGovernmentministry.
TheyreporttotheSecretaryofState.
DirectorGeneral:Aseniorcivil
servantwhoreportsdirectlytothe
PermanentSecretary.
ThePermanentRepresentationof
theUnitedKingdomtothe
EuropeanUnion(UKREP):A
diplomaticmissionfromtheUKtothe
EuropeanUnionandrepresentsthe
MemberStateinCouncilWorking
Groups.UKREPnowreportsdirectlyto
DExEU.UKPermanent
Representative:SirTimBarrow
Glossary

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Brexit in perspective
© Brunswick 2017 | 6
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