Short sales are negatively impacting the housing market and many homeowners. While some data combines short sales and foreclosures, this report focuses on short sales. It identifies that over 20% of US homeowners and 46% of Florida homeowners are underwater on their mortgages. Solutions are needed to help short sellers reenter the economy, such as allowing them to continue paying during the short sale process or providing underwriting exceptions. Manual reviews could consider homeowners who defaulted only on their mortgage as lower risk. Rehabilitating short sale homes could also boost prices and buyer confidence.
1. Short Sales:
The 800 Pound Gorilla that
is Affecting a Growing
Number of People and
Eroding the Housing Market
Though some data provided also pertains to foreclosures, it is only included because credit companies commonly combine short sale
and foreclosure data together. This report will strictly address solutions for short sales and strategic defaults.
2. Focusing on Short Sales
National
Florida example
Not all Short Sellers are the Same: Owner Occupied and Investor
Solutions that Require Policy Change to Allow
Short Sellers to Re-enter the Fledgling US
Economy
Change the Credit Default Requirement of Servicers to Consider a Homeowner
for a Short Sale
Encourage Manual Mortgage Underwriting Exceptions for “Life Event” Mortgage
Only (MO) Defaulters
Why Buyers Aren’t Buying and Solutions that
are Working
3. Focusing on Short Sales
*A short sale is a sale of real estate in which the sale proceeds fall short of the balance
owed on the property's loan. It often occurs when a borrower cannot pay the
mortgage loan on their property, but the lender decides that selling the property at a
moderate loss is better than pressing the borrower.
*mortgage servicer
A mortgage servicer is the company that borrowers pay their mortgage loan payments
to.
National
Florida statewide: comparison of % of *Distressed Listings
compared to total Florida Listings
Not all Short Sellers are the Same: Owner Occupied and
Investors
1. Definition of a short sale, Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_sale_(real_estate)
2. Definition of a mortgage servicer, Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage_servicer
4. *Data shows the national average percentage of “underwater”
homeowners (residential properties with a mortgage in negative
equity) in the US was 22.7 at the end of March 2011.
States with Highest Negative Equity Percentage of Total
Mortgages in Their State
• Nevada: 63%
• Arizona: 50%
• Florida: 46%
• Michigan: 36%
• California: 31%
Data: 22.7% Negative Equity Report/ CoreLogic, June 7, 2011 and 28.4% from Zillow Reuters/ on 5/9/11 msnbc.com
5. Here’s an example of numbers of homeowners
affected in Florida alone…
Florida
3rd highest in US with 46.1% of all mortgages underwater
*2,021,868 negative equity mortgages statewide
**Total # of listings statewide: 232,167
**Total distressed listings: 63,262.
This number of homeowners/units will need to:
rent after listing sells
will not be able to purchase another home with a mortgage for minimum of 2-3 yrs after short
sale and 3-7 years after foreclosure.
**These homeowners/units are 27.24% of the total listings in the state of Florida alone.
*New CoreLogic Data Shows Slight Decrease in Negative Equity CoreLogic June 7, 2011, Santa Ana, Calif. , pg. 3
** See next page for Distressed Listing through MLX Advantage: Combines Short Sale and Foreclosure selections (includes short
sales and pre-foreclosures for 4/1-5/2/11. Did not include REO’s/bank owned. Some Fl. counties not reporting.)
6. ** # of Homeowners eliminated in Florida alone:
Compare Florida Total Listings to Short Sale/Pre-Foreclosure Listings
7. Not all Short Sellers are the Same:
Owner Occupied and Investor
• Owner Occupied short sellers with a hardship: purchased an owner occupied
home, wishing to stay until family circumstances changed. And circumstances,
commonly loss of income, divorce, relocation for jobs, increase in household size,
did change.
• Investor short sellers: purchased home(s) as investor speculators, hoping to flip
and make a profit, widely popular in a booming housing market.
• Owner Occupied short sellers with no hardship: purchased an owner occupied
home and have no apparent hardship (loss of job, divorce, increase in household#,
etc.) This type of short seller is also known as a “strategic defaulter”. A *strategic
default is the decision by a borrower to stop making payments (i.e. default) on a
debt despite having the financial ability to make the payments.
– *These are the “stuck” short sellers, as they don’t have a defined hardship other than sever
loss of equity. These short sellers are often turned down for a short sale, or the bank requires
a partial note to be paid in order to complete the short sale.
*Wikipedia definition of Strategic Default: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_default
8. Solutions that Require Policy Change
to Allow Short Sellers to
Re-enter the Fledgling US Economy
How can short sellers…
become buyers again?
When?
How will it happen?
9. Frustrating Conflict:
CoreLogic May 2011 Study Short Sale Research Study
Here’s press that realtors and public see in Here’s the frustrating reality occurring
article meant to alert banks of fraud… the majority of the time
*Short Sale Scam cheats banks, sellers June 8, 2011, More of these properties than realized are greatly
www.Floridarealtors.org distressed. Repairs CANNOT be done prior to a short
sale or REO (bank owned) closing.
Banks and distressed home sellers stand to lose more than $375 • To repair a home, buyer must:
million this year from a short sale scam that has sellers and – obtain a rehab loan, agree to an *escrow closing,
banks agreeing to sell homes at very undervalued prices, or pay cash.
according to a new study by CoreLogic. • Mortgage guidelines require minimum property
standards, and if not present, cost must be:
Here’s how the scam often works: Borrowers who are – added into a rehab mortgage or kept in escrow at
underwater or in financial distress are approached, often by closing and released after repairs complete.
an investment group, and persuaded to sell the property in a • In both cases:
short sale at a low price. Soon after the bank accepts the – Buyer completes repairs AFTER CLOSING ON
lowball offer, the investment group then resells the house to HOME and pay inspections and bids for repairs.
legitimate buyers at a higher price.
• PROBLEM MOST OFTEN:
Sixty-five percent of short sales resold within six months that – Home “After Improved Value” (with needed
net profits of 40 percent or higher were flagged “suspicious,” repairs) STILL WON’T APPRAISE and value is not
which means there is a high likelihood that the lender high enough to cover repair costs.
accepted a low offer, according to the CoreLogic study. These – Homebuyers prefer to buy from
transactions often go undetected by banks, too. Investor/rehabber who does inspection,
purchases home, rehabs, and hope that property
And… appraises out high enough to cover repairs.
*A short way to short-sale fraud June 03, 2011
*Escrow closing: buyer gets mortgage for home, but escrows repair
by Kenneth R. Harney www.therealdeal.com costs, usually 1.5%, at title co. until repairs are completed.
10. Conflict of Policy:
The growing number of short sellers are producing a glut of
soon to be ex-homeowners who are exempt from purchasing
another home for a minimum of two to three years, and more.
• Servicers tell existing homeowner • Even though mortgage underwriting guidelines
that in order to be considered for a offer reasonable timeframes and underwriting
standards for homeowners that must short sale,
short sale, the homeowner must be being late on mortgage payments for the 12
in default on their mortgage payment months preceding a short sale is what exempts
before being considered for a short these short sale homeowners from
repurchasing a home for a minimum number of
sale. years for all mortgage types.
Troubled homeowners figured out long ago that the only way • FHA Borrower in Default at the time of Short Sale
to get any attention from their lender was to stop
paying. And guess who they heard that from? The banks A borrower in default on his/her mortgage at the time of
themselves. the short sale (or pre-foreclosure sale) is not eligible for
Orlando Sentinel, May 17, 2011, Beth Kassab/Business
a new FHA-insured mortgage for three years from the
Columnist/ Article: Bondi should embrace lower mortgage date of the pre-foreclosure sale.
principals FHA outreach.gov/FHA Handbook 4155.1, 4.C.2.1
• Additional restrictions also imposed by lenders: Some major lender
place additional restrictions on FHA, conventional and VA guidelines
already in place, regarding short sales. Additional overlays may
include greater timeframes before giving a mortgage. One major
lender will not give a mortgage AT ALL to short sellers that had to
sign a promissory note for a previous short sell, even if the debt is
included in the DTI! NOTE: These short sellers no longer own the
previous home, must pay a note, the debt is part of their DTI, and
they ARE STILL DENIED A LOAN !
11. Wait Timeframes and Maximum LTV after a
Short Sale for a New Mortgage
• *VA: 1 year at 100% LTV or lower
• *FHA: 1 year if there were no lates in the preceding
12 months before the short sale closing
• *Fannie Mae and FHLMC: 2yrs at 80% LTV
• *FHA: 3 years if there were lates in the preceding 12
months before the short sale closing
• *Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: 4 years at 90% LTV
with private mortgage insurance (PMI). As of 6/4/11,
there are no known PMI carriers who will insure at
90% LTV!
*See Resource page for where to retrieve information for loan programs.
12. Change the Credit Default Requirement of Servicers
to Consider a Homeowner for a Short Sale
• In March of 2011, a 27 page term sheet prepared by attorneys general and led by
Tom Miller of Iowa and used as a starting point for negotiating real reform with the
banks included this proposed change: *“Servicer’s employees shall not instruct,
advise or recommend that borrowers go into default in order to qualify for loss
mitigation relief.”
• If servicers would not instruct current homeowners that they must be late
on mortgage payment in order to be considered for short sale and allow
these homeowners to continue paying the mortgage payment, it would
prevent short sellers from automatically becoming exempt from re-
purchasing a home for a longer period of time.
• Credit is still affected with a short sale closing and the wording “settled for
less than full balance of loan” shows on credit report. Over time, however,
credit scores increase. Late payments required for short sale
consideration by servicers at present will exempt a short seller from
getting a mortgage, even if the credit score has gone back up.
*Word for Word: The 27 Page Term sheet on Mortgage Servicing Practices Excerpt can be found on page 17, K.8
13. Trans Union Provides Positive Credit Proof
for Mortgage Only Defaults…
In a PowerPoint presentation presented by *TransUnion on May 17-18, 2011 at the
Financial Services Summit, credit risk differences were established for Mortgage Only
delinquent consumers:
– *MO: “Mortgage Only” A consumer who goes 120+ DPD on a mortgage but has no other delinquent existing
tradelines at the time the new tradeline is opened
– *MD: “Multiple Delinquencies” A consumer who goes 120+ DPD on a mortgage but has at least one
delinquent existing tradeline at the time the new tradeline is opened
Trans Union test results proved…
An MO (Mortgage Only) default during the recession indicates a better risk, regardless
of when the new account opens
Scores for mortgage-only defaulters tend to “rebound” faster than for those w/multiple
delinquencies
Incorporating these results into strategy is not difficult after MO identification:
Identify MOs—a relatively simple task at the credit file level
Adjust score cut-offs for MOs in prescreen
Adjust pricing for MOs in offer
*“Life After Foreclosure and Hidden Opportunities” presented May 17-18, 2011 at TransUnion Financial Services Summit.
14. …With Benefits and Knowledge Too Important
and Valuable to Ignore!
(*cont’d.)
The benefits can be material
“Buy deeper” without the accompanying loss rates
Avoid the tough competition currently vying for the cleanest segments
Target a segment that will not otherwise get attractive pricing
Achieve higher risk-adjusted margin than is currently available in other segments
Build loyalty at a time when consumer dissatisfaction is relatively high
Summary
Behavior that was once considered high-risk may no longer be so
An understanding of how external factors impact consumers can reveal acquisition
opportunities your competitors might miss
The recent recession is a great example of exceptional behavior; mortgage-only
defaulters may not be as bad as you think
Radical changes to the environment can limit the effectiveness of based on prior 26
intuition experience
*“Life After Foreclosure and Hidden Opportunities” presented May 17-18, 2011 at TransUnion Financial Services Summit.
15. Encourage Manual Mortgage Underwriting
Exceptions for “Life Event” Mortgage Only (MO)
Defaulters
• Because of the credit proof shown on the *TransUnion report and
further documentation from *FICO, a case for consideration of
common sense manual underwriting exceptions could be made for
short sellers who have not had any late pays on credit other than
those incurred due to the short sale.
• Additional criteria that could be required:
Greater monies down
higher credit score
Higher interest rate
*“Life After Foreclosure and Hidden Opportunities” presented May 17-18, 2011 at TransUnion Financial Services Summit.
*FICO Reveals Score Impact of Mortgage Delinquencies: from 3/24/11/ Smart Credit
16. Why Buyers Aren’t Buying and Solutions
That are Working!
Why buyers aren’t buying short sale What buyers feel safe buying
inventory
1. Buyer bears the expense of appraisals, • What IS selling: *FNMA Homepath
inspections, with all monies lost if homes and *Neighborhood
appraised value not high enough. Stabilization Program (NSP) homes,
2. This happens most often because In where foreclosed (Homepath and
areas where negative equity is NSP) and short sale (NSP only)
common, and minimum value to homes are rehabbed and then put
include repairs needed will not be into the market.
realized in appraisal value. Therefore,
a mortgage cannot be given for • Homeowners perceive these
amount needed. properties as safe, as they have
3. Rehabilitation and Renovation been inspected, and repaired to
mortgages are typically at a slightly min. code standards.
higher rate with higher costs. • If banks/servicers repaired homes,
4. Often these homes are partially they would realize a higher sales
destroyed or vandalized, and price, just like FNMA Homepath,
homebuyers are fearful of what they NSP, and investors/rehabbers.
can’t see are wrong with these homes.
*FNMA Homepath website: http://www.homepath.com/
*NSP Program Overview: http://www.hud.gov/offices/cpd/communitydevelopment/programs/neighborhoodspg/
17. Resources
1. Definition of a short sale, Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_sale_(real_estate)
2. Definition of a mortgage servicer, Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage_servicer
3. Data: 22.7% Negative Equity Report/ CoreLogic, June 7, 2011 and 28.4% from Zillow Reuters/ on 5/9/11 msnbc.com
4. *New CoreLogic Data Shows Slight Decrease in Negative Equity CoreLogic June 7, 2011, Santa Ana, Calif. , pg. 3
5. *Wikipedia definition of Strategic Default: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_default
6. Short Sale Scam cheats banks, sellers http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/article.cfm?id=260867
7. A short way to short-sale fraud June 03, 2011 12:30PM By Kenneth R. Harney http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/a-short-way-
to-short-sale-fraud-by-kenneth-harney
8. Orlando Sentinel, May 17, 2011, Beth Kassab/Business Columnist/ Article: Bondi should embrace lower mortgage principals
9. FHA outreach.gov/FHA Handbook 4155.1, 4.C.2.1: www.fhaoutreach.gov/FHAHandbook/prod/infomap.asp?address=4155-1.4.C.2.l
10. Fannie Mae Selling Guide/Originating through Closing/Underwriting Borrowers/Credit Assessment/Traditional Credit History
11. https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/guides/ssg/sg/pdf/sel052411.pdf
12. Freddie Mac Selling Guide/ First go here: http://www.allregs.com/tpl/Main.aspx. Then, find Single-Family Seller/Servicer Guide,
Volume 1/Chs. 37-38: Credit Underwriting/Chapter 37: Underwriting the Borrower/37.7: Evaluating Borrower credit reputation
(02/01/11)
13. VA Pamphlet 26-7, Revised/ Chapter 4: Credit Underwriting, pgs. 44-45 http://www.benefits.va.gov/WARMS/pam26_7.asp
14. Word for Word: The 27 Page Term sheet on Mortgage Servicing Practices http://www.americanbanker.com/issues/176_45/how-the-
state-ags-want-to-revamp-mortgage-servicing-1034053-1.html. Excerpt can be found on page 17, K.8.
15. “Life After Foreclosure and Hidden Opportunities” presented May 17-18, 2011 at TransUnion Financial Services Summit. Full PDF
located at http://www.transunion.com/docs/business/eMarketing/finSummit2011/Life-after-Foreclosure.pdf
16. FICO Reveals Score Impact of Mortgage Delinquencies: http://www.smartcredit.com/blog/2011/03/24/fico-reveals-score-impact-of-
mortgage-delinquencies/ from 3/24/11
17. FNMA Homepath website: http://www.homepath.com/
18. NSP Program Overview: http://www.hud.gov/offices/cpd/communitydevelopment/programs/neighborhoodspg/