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Climate History Impacts: Studying Past, Present, and Future
1. ClimateCHANGEinNewJersey
Climate Change History Assessments of Nascent
Global Environments in New Jersey
Dr. Paul J. Croft, Faculty
Ms. Anna Gonzales, GA
CASTLES Faculty: Paul J. Croft, Kikombo Ngoy, and Feng Qi
2. Motivation: Conduct Climate Science Studies
Using the Past and Present to look into the Future
Create a Timeline for New Jersey
Making use of past Weather and
Climate to define NJ impacts
Examine how Society interacts
with Weather and Climate Systems
Consider Historical Information and
Numerical Datasets as Evidence
3. Why Diversity of Sources is Necessary to define past Climate
Traditional and Contemporary…
• Climate by location (e.g., HCN)
• Datasets of 100 or more years
• Temperature and Precipitation
Approaches to Climate Science
• Raw statistical analysis, and trends
• Additional ‘weather elements’
• Weather Maps (bigger picture)
• Frequency, Intensity, Duration
• Correlation, Regression, & more
4. Why Diversity of Sources is Essential to define past Climate
Problems are numerous and…
• Spatial coverage
• Temporal coverage
• Missing or Incomplete Data
Questions are many…
• Representative? Landscapes?
• Estimations?Veracity?
• Sufficient details?
• Equipment changes?
• Meaning with regard to Society?
5. How do we “Solve” these issues/problems?
Make use of variety of “Proxies”…
• Plants are natural integrators (interaction)
• Climate is “lived” by Society (infrastructure)
• Use ScientificTechniques & Artifacts
Relate between datasets and types
• Tree rings (dendrochronology)
• Phenology (think Cherry Blossoms)
• Housing, Commuting (responses)
• Carbon-dating, sediment cores (complex)
• Evidentiary information (people & interactions)
• How to establish Cause-and-Effect?
Climate Data
& Statistics
Scenarios &
Impacts
Metadata
& Society
Surrogate
Measures
6. How this type of data informs us…
Quantitative & Qualitative…
• Numerical data
• Metadata as linkage
• Human experience as integrator
Allows depth of understanding
• Municipal records (flood zones)
• Legislative Committees (minutes)
• Correspondence (letters, diaries)
• Commerce (ship logs, landscape)
• Cultural (pictures, artwork, music)
• Societal Manifestation (movements,
impacts, interactions, feedbacks,…)
Avoid, Mitigate, Prevent (“AMP”)
7. Building ‘CASTLES’ for Climate Science Studies
Student-Faculty R-Team
“ClimateAdaptation Science
Team for Leading and Enabling
a Sustainable Future”
• GA Investigation (F16)
• Undergraduate (Sp17)
• Coordination with Partners
• SESS FacultyTeam Members
“CASTLES” Charge
Study Global and Local Climate
Change with regard to human
health, infrastructure, and impacts…
• Ecosystems,Water Resources
• Air/Soil Quality, Land-Use/Change
• Societal issues and Sustainability
• Economic and Environmental, Modeling
That’sa lot to accomplishso…
CASTLES Faculty: Paul J. Croft, Kikombo Ngoy, and Feng Qi
8. Building ‘CASTLES’ andTransdisciplinary Partnerships
ManyThanks to…
Erin C. Alghandoor
Elizabeth Hyde
Jonathan Mercantini
C. Brid Nicholson
Brian Regal
Bill Schroh
(SESS “CASTLES”Group)
9. Initial Preparation & Investigation
• Florence Dwyer: EnvironmentalAwareness and
Advocacy (Hazards)
• Protection of New Jersey Natural Resources
(Sustainability Science)
• The Impacts of Climate, Climate Change, and
Modalities (Infrastructure)
• The Great Swamp “Encroachment” of
surroundings (Landscape Change)
Identify KeyThemes and
Questions for Research
about Past Climates in and
near New Jersey
10. Florence Dwyer: One Focal Point
Republican Party
Service: 1967-1973
U.S. Representative for
New Jersey's 6th and 12th
Congressional Districts
Second woman to be elected to
the United States House of
Representatives from New Jersey
Advocacy for good education,
elimination of sex discrimination,
consumer protection, and to protect
the quality of the environment
11. Identifying Archives of Data: Key Artifacts
Ascertain Weather and Climate Impacts and Societal Responses (interactions, feedbacks, et cetera)
Characterize/Sort
Identify/Connect
Personal Diaries Constituent Letters Poems Collection of photographsFloodControl Notes/Minutes
12. Sorting with regard to “AMP” and literature review
Environmental
Economic
Landscape
Housing
Transportation
Temp/PCP Hazards Changes/Thresholds
Crops, Livestock Supply delays People Comment
Roadways, Business Flood, Drought Viability
Insulate, A/C-Heat Building Codes Snowload, Sunload
Optimization Closure, Damage Routes, Alternates
13. “AMP” Responses & Planning: Hazards Philosophy
Pair, Compare, and “Equate” to Society
Quantitative data (NCDC & ONJSC)
Change in magnitude and direction
Abandonment and Replacement
Adjustment and Adaptation
14. In Progress: Establish Impacts, Interactions, Feedbacks
Establish Impacts, “Amount” andThresholds
Diagnostic information and analysis
Who,What, Where, When, and How
Why avoidable/not and present day
“Translate” into Scenarios, modeling
15. • Past Weather and Climate “Management”
• More than basic “Record” Events or Extremes
• Socio-Economic and Psychological Responses
• Physical, Structural, and System Responses
• Legislative, Political, and Other Responses
Societal Data to
provide specific
relevancy to render
“normalized”
impacts
• Extent in Space andTime (“Spatiotemporal”)
• Frequency, Intensity, Duration, andTheir Change
• Future Scenarios (based on past and present)
• Numerical Modeling (TerrSet) and analysis
• System Responses & Infrastructure Change
Expansion from
“Local” to “Region”
and in context of
Global Climate and
Climate Change
Scenarios: “But what if it changes?” – MovingTargets
16. • 1950 floods, snowstorms, and EWR Airport
• Water Capacity and Flow Kean University
• Land Use Changes, Resilience, andAdaptation
• System Responses: Substitution,AMP, or Obsolete
• Florence Dwyer +The Great Swamp + Climate Models
Societal Data
provides specific
instances and allows
“matching” of similar
impacts independent
of time and space
• Specify Past, Current, and Future Constraints
• DetermineChanges that requireChange and How much
• Explain how Societal Function and Responses Change
• Assessment of Societal Resilience as function of Climate
• UnderstandClimateChange Susceptibility, Responses,
and modes of Flexibility for Food, Energy, and Hazards
“Paint” the picture of
System Responses
and SWOT Analysis;
Create Climate
HistoryTimeline for
New Jersey
“But what if…” – Evolutionary Responses/Changes
17. What does our
Evidence tell us?
• Climate Change
• Encroachment
• Warming in NJ
• Spatial ChangesT/PCP
• Frequency, Intensity
• Impacts &Vulnerability
• Infrastructure is prone
• Response issues have
changed; Society too?
These define Key
Impact Responses
• Infrastructure perspectives
• Changes in Commerce
• Management Philosophies
• Redefinition (flood zone)
• Emergency Response
protocols, reliability, liability
• Planning Constraints
• Social “way of life”
• Costs and Leveraging
• “Evergreen” Solutions
Adaptive Planning & Decision Making: “Why 2+2 is not equal to 4”
18. Planning & Decision Making: Climate History Impacts in NJ
• Campus Water Flow/Resources/Flooding –
Consider redirect, quality control, relevancies
• Encroachment & Climate Change –
Separate impacts, focus efforts on desired outcomes
• Future Climates & Society –
Infrastructure with substitutions, modalities
Past-Present-Future
Climate-Impact-Response
Hazardous Philosophies
Model-Adapt-Evolve
Student Panelists
(tomorrow!)
Davina Campbell-Washington
Blair Gomes
Naomi Horowitz
Arnoldo Larasiria
David Olivo
Alison Tulli
Avoid, Mitigate, Prevent (“AMP”)
(but new paradigm says)
Move away from Impact-Driven
Move away from Event-Driven
Consider Societal Systems
Link Societal Responses
Think Societal “wants”
Accessible Modalities Policies
(adaptable climate modeling)
Focus on sub-systems, processes
Examine specific Interactions
Consider Response Pathways
Link Cost-Options-Durability
Think Flexible Infrastructure
19. The next research steps to accomplish…
Quantitative & Qualitative…
• Basic Societal behaviors, pathways
• Fundamental responses normalized
= Apples & Oranges – Making Juice
System Analysis & Alternates to ask…
• Is it Climate or Society or Infrastructure?
• Is Control better than ManagedCare?
• Is Encroachment a Faulty Policy?
• CanCommerce adjust or be Cyclical?
• CanTransportation reframe its Approach?
• How do Responses interact with Change?
Perspectives from the past show underlying
Modalities of Societal Response and the
Emergence of Adaptable and Accessible Policy
Accessible Modalities & Policies
