1. The best way to
predict the future
is to create it
Paul Vittles

2. 2
Drivers for this presentation
 Learning from 24 years in research and 11 years as a coach – questions & answers
 Debate around the extent to which we can predict the future and shape the future
 Issues around client service, own organisation, own life – need for visions and goals
 Receiving more briefs from clients asking for a ‘visioning exercise’
 Skills, process, models for developing visions?
 Lessons from effective leaders
 Be more bullish about changing the future – our clients and our own!

3. Do we think we can predict the future?
Do we think we can create the future?

4. Predicting the future
Sophisticated science or mug’s game?

5. 5
Problems with predicting the future and creating the future
 “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty, a fad”
(President of Michigan Bank when asked to invest in Ford in 1903)
 “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”
(Harry Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927)
 Sheep and the wool industry in Australia
 Self-limiting beliefs, eg 4-Minute Mile Barrier
 Optimists and pessimists
 Reality is the enemy of the dream

6. 6
Asking the key questions
What kind of person
do we want to be?
What kind of city or state
do we want to live in?
What do we want our
industry to be like?
What kind of organisation
or team do we want
to belong to?
What kind of product or servicedo we want to provide?
What do we want
our planet to be in
50 years’ time?

7. Lessons from effective leadership
Inspiring, shared visions = creating the future

8. 8
Origins of Desired State Planning
 Many academics and practitioners claim to be the originators
 Does it matter?!
 Obsession with predicting the past as well as predicting the future!
 Many relate it back to NLP (Neuro Linguistic Programming)
 Others align it with Appreciative Inquiry (Cooperrider et al)
 Bridges academic literature, management literature and popular literature

9. 9
The Desired State Planning Model
The Transition
State
The Desired
State
The Current
State
1. Create the transition state
2. Evaluate the current state
3. What must not change
4. What must change
5. Define the desired state
6. Live in the desired state
7. Use change dynamics
8. Support the change process

10. 10
Desired State Planning works on all levels
Individual Team Product Service
Policy Programme Organisation Industry
State Country Region Planet

11. 11
The Push-Pull-Involve Model
Define Current State
Push effect
Involve stakeholders
Define Desired State
Pull effect
Involve stakeholders
Move to Desired State
Dynamics
for change?
Involve stakeholders

12. Researchers are pushing but not pulling
Do we know where we’re trying to get to?

13. 13
Some problems and challenges ahead
 Starting with the end in mind, eg is the presentation the beginning or the end?
 Workshops at the beginning or the end?
 Help in defining the vision? Help in defining the ‘finishing line’?
 Surveys with a past and a present but no future
 Who is responsible for stakeholder engagement?
 Is there a future for satisfaction surveys?!

14. 14
The Problem State, The Busy State
“How are you?”… … “Busy!”
Busy fool syndrome
Directionless busyness

15. 15
Need behaviour change but we are creatures of habit
 Entrenched habits
 We research habits
 We have our own habits
 Conscious and unconscious
 Routines = comfort and efficiency
 People don’t like (too much) change
 Safe place from which to innovate

16. 16
Resistance to change…
…but we are adaptable!

17. 17
Key success factors
 Get off the treadmill
 Dissatisfaction with the status quo – identify or create
 Define desired state – specific and achievable
 Analyse what needs to change/ not change
 Focus on incentives to change/ benefits of change
 Effective stakeholder engagement throughout
 Momentum: move, inform, celebrate

18. 18
Contribution of research(ers)
 Can help clients step off the treadmill
 Strong on current state analysis
 Identify or create dissatisfaction
 Analysis of change dynamics
 Post-research workshops
 Good track record on PUSH factors
 Poor track record on PULL factors

19. 19
Let’s get dissatisfied!
 Being satisfied is the problem
 ‘Satisficing’ is the problem
 Benchmarked to death!
 Aspiring to be average!
 Arbitrary snapshots and arbitrary baselines
 So what?!
 To what?!
30%
50%
70%
90% 90%
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
% Satisfied
70%
75%75%
80%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Year 1 Year 2
Organisation A
Organisation B

20. 20
Employee research dynamics
 Lack of organisational vision
 Satisfaction surveys operating in a vacuum
 Backslapping and defensive benchmarking
 Dynamic approaches? Drill down, qual, focus on potential…or…
 Focus on the desired state
 Build around the vision or build the vision
 Visioning requires passion and imagination

21. Need future featuring models
Aspirational benchmarks

22. 22
Future-featuring case studies
 Cheshire Adult Education
 Kensington Academy
 Rotherham 2020
 Sara Lee Cakes
 School meals services
 Reach for the Sky

23. Reach for the Sky
Case study

24. Victims of change or instigators of change?
Researchers as change agents
Part of the problem or part of the solution?!

25. 25
Personal change
 Organisational change is sum of personal changes
 Change is difficult for individuals
 Same rules apply
 reason to change?
 benefits of change?
 influence over the change?
 support through the change?
 Current state dominance & death by habit
 Underestimate long-term and overestimate short-term

26. 26
Goal dynamics
Identify the issue
Set a goal
Develop an
action plan
Act
Evaluate
Achieve goal
Monitor
Change what’s not working
Do more of what works
Source: Greene & Grant

27. 27
g
r
o
w
t
h
building the trustrelationships
goals what do you need to achieve?
reality what is happening now?
options what could you do?
will what will you do?
tactics how and when will you do it?
habits how will you sustain your success?
celebrating the results
Source: AGC
The GROWTH Model
results

28. 28
Maintaining a balanced perspective
Learning
Performance
Enjoyment

29. The three dimensions of happiness
Past, present, future

30. 30
It’s all about YOU – personal happiness exercise
 Think about when you are happy
 Where are you?
 What are you doing?
 Who are you with?
 Write down your happy scenarios list
 When was the last time you did this?
 Do you want more of this?
 What’s stopping you from doing this/
doing this more often?

31. 31
Personal change model
 Personal desired state?
 Personal current state?
 Desire to change?
 Please write down:
 one thing you want to do more of
 one thing you want to do less of
 one thing you want to start doing
 one thing you want to stop doing

32. Predicting the future is history, so create the future
The future is the future!

33. 33
The future is the future!
 Understand the dynamics of change for the benefit of yourself and your clients
 Don’t be satisfied with satisfaction
 Challenge the status quo
 Become pullers as well as pushers
 Build the future into your research programmes
 The best way to predict the future is to create it
 We’re in the vision business now!

34. paul.vittles@tns-global.com