The issue of protection of the population in Bulgaria in a situation of high radioactivity in the context of the war in Ukraine - Extended Parallel Process Model (Kim Witte, 1992) Survey through a questionnaire of the perception of the threat of high radioactivity and the readiness for reaction of citizens of Kozloduy, Oryahovo, Moesia and three nearby villages

1. Perception of the threat and readiness
to react in a situation of increased
radioactivity in the context of War
Kozloduy – April, 2022

2. guidelines
• The issue of protection of the population in
Bulgaria in a situation of high radioactivity
in the context of the war in Ukraine -
Extended Parallel Process Model (Witte,
1992)
• Survey through a questionnaire of the
perception of the threat of high radioactivity
and the readiness for reaction of citizens of
Kozloduy, Oryahovo, Moesia and three
nearby villages

4. QUESTIONNAIRE: Questions about the perceived threat and efficasy
of increased radioactivity in the context of the War in Ukraine
1. Perceived threat
Variable Key Questions
Susceptibility
(perceived threat)
Q1: In your opinion, to what extent is it possible for a major accident
to occur at the Kozloduy NPP, which would lead to high radioactivity
at the place where you live?; Q3: To what extent do you think it is
possible for a serious incident in a nuclear power plant to occur
during the war near Bulgaria, which would affect Bulgaria as well?;
Q6: To what extent do you think it is possible for a military nuclear
attack to take place near Bulgaria, which would affect our country
and some of the Bulgarian citizens?
Severity
(perceived threat)
Q7: What do you think would be the consequences for health and the
environment if a major accident occurred at the Kozloduy NPP, or at
another NPP near Bulgaria, or during a military nuclear attack nearby
- in all three cases with high radioactivity in the atmosphere and the
environment?

5. QUESTIONNAIRE: Questions about the perceived threat and efficasy
of increased radioactivity in the context of the War in Ukraine
2. Perceived efficacy
Variable Key Questions
Response
efficacy
(perceived efficacy)
Q8: In the event of an accident at a nuclear power plant or a nuclear
attack with high radioactivity in the atmosphere in your area, do you
know what protection measures you need to take yourself and what
orders from the institutions? (space left for writing); Q9: In your
opinion, are the protection measures recommended by the
institutions safe and effective in the event of a major accident at a
nuclear power plant?; Q11: Do you trust the state institutions to do
everything necessary for you and your family's safety in the event of
an incident with increased radioactivity?
Self efficacy
(perceived efficacy)
Q10: Do you have the necessary skills and resources to take the
independent and joint measures recommended by the institutions in
case of a major accident at a nuclear power plant with high
radioactivity at the place where you live?

6. QUESTIONNAIRE: Questions about the perceived threat and efficasy
of increased radioactivity in the context of the War in Ukraine
3. Additional questions on perceived threat and efficacy
Additional Questions
Additional questions
on the perceived
threat
Q2: Do you know which nuclear power plants in Ukraine were
recently taken over by the Russian army?;
Q4: Can Bulgaria defend its nuclear power plant in the event of a
military attack?;
Q5: Should the European Union set up a common system for the
protection of the nuclear power plants of the Member States that
operate such?
Additional questions
on the perceived
efficacy
Q12: How often do you receive information from the institutions
about the necessary reaction and measures in case of a major
accident at Kozloduy NPP with high radioactivity in the environment?
Q13: Has a response exercise ever been organized in your locality in
case of a major accident at Kozloduy NPP? (If the answer is yes,
please write when it was and what you remember from the teaching.)

7. Susceptibility
(perceived threat)
Q1: In your opinion, to what extent is it possible for a major accident
to occur at the Kozloduy NPP, which would lead to high radioactivity
at the place where you live?

8. Susceptibility
(perceived threat)
Q3: To what extent do you think it is possible for a serious incident
in a nuclear power plant to occur during the war near Bulgaria, which
would affect Bulgaria as well?

9. Susceptibility
(perceived threat)
Q6: To what extent do you think it is possible for a military nuclear
attack to take place near Bulgaria, which would affect our country
and some of the Bulgarian citizens?

10. Severity
(perceived threat)
Q7: What do you think would be the consequences for health and the
environment if a major accident occurred at the Kozloduy NPP, or at
another NPP near Bulgaria, or during a military nuclear attack nearby
- in all three cases with high radioactivity in the atmosphere and the
environment?

11. Response efficacy
(perceived efficacy)
Q8: In the event of an accident at a nuclear power plant or a nuclear
attack with high radioactivity in the atmosphere in your area, do you
know what protection measures you need to take yourself and what
by orders from the institutions? (space left for writing)

12. Response efficacy
(perceived efficacy)
Q9: In your opinion, are the protection measures recommended by
the institutions safe and effective in the event of a major accident at
a nuclear power plant?

13. Response efficacy
(perceived efficacy)
Q11: Do you trust the state institutions will do everything necessary
for you and your family's safety in the event of an incident with
increased radioactivity?

14. Self efficacy
(perceived efficacy)
Q10: Do you have the necessary skills and resources to take the
independent and joint measures recommended by the institutions
in case of a major accident at a nuclear power plant with high
radioactivity at the place where you live?

15. Additional questions on the perceived threat
Q2: Do you know which nuclear power plants in Ukraine were
recently taken over by the Russian army?

16. Additional questions on the perceived threat
Q4: Can Bulgaria defend its nuclear power plant in the event
of a military attack?

17. Additional questions on the perceived threat
Q5: Should the European Union set up a common system for the
protection of the nuclear power plants of the Member States that
operate such?

18. Additional questions on the perceived efficacy
Q12: How often do you receive information from the institutions
about the necessary reaction and measures in case of a major
accident at Kozloduy NPP with high radioactivity in the
environment?

19. Additional questions on the perceived efficacy
Q13: Has a response exercise ever been organized in your locality in
case of a major accident at Kozloduy NPP? (If the answer is yes,
please write when it was and what you remember from the teaching.)

20. Main conclusions
• Despite the Ukrainian nuclear power plants attacked and seized by Russia
(including the shooting and fire at Europe's largest nuclear power plant,
Zaporozhye), and despite Russia's recent threats with nuclear weapons, the
responsible institutions in Bulgaria are not launching a communication
program to inform and prepare for population for its protection. The Ministry
of Interior (the minister is from the socialist party), to which Fire Safety and
Protection of the Population (Civil Protection) is a unit, is not taking
sufficient adequate action in this direction.
• The results of the empirical study indicate that it is very likely that citizens
will follow the path of "fear control" instead of "danger control" in a
radioactive incident (attack), according to the EPPM, in particular ignoring
the emergency message and panicking with severe consequences.
• Awareness of protection measures is very low, even in the settlements
within the 30-kilometer zone around Kozloduy NPP. A leaflet made by
Kozloduy NPP has been uploaded on the website of the Ministry of Interior,
which contains certain inaccuracies, ambiguities and raises questions.
There is an urgent need to update and refine the information on
preparedness and protection against high radioactivity crisis by the most
adequate specialists, as well as a program for its widespread and periodic
dissemination.

21. Thank you for your
attention!
p.kardzhilov@gmail.com