ICTON 2019 France Keynote Presentation Only 50 years ago network design was dominated by well defined, characterised, and understood services, but the launch of mobile services in the 1980s brought that era of certainty and stability to a rapid close. Not only where mobile users different in their habits, they discovered TXT! At almost the same time the internet and dial-up modems were introduced, and these compounded the situation further. Since that time network designers have been largely guessing as to what services they should accommodate and when. The real culprits of chaos here are accelerating technologies and the new services they engender. For example: Facebook did not exist 15 years ago; WhatsApp 10 years ago; Snapchat 8 Years ago; whilst Video/Audio downloading and streaming were not mainstream just 3 years ago. And waiting in the wings we have the IoT and AI services. Needless to say most networks and network designers will continue to be wrong footed by the pace of change!

1. Networks for an
Infinite Service Future
Peter Cochrane and Mohamed Abdel-Maguid
www.petercochrane.com

2. n e t w o r k s to C o m e
What will they look like , can we design them?
Today we have partial design
Steered by EMERGENT demand
complexity AND Behaviours
Followed by lots of patches
Network and system testing
is limited / impossible
performance is not assured
we are guessing more and more
Can we do better
and
Can we second Guess
The nets to come

3. C o m m e r c i a l D r i v e r s
Top IT copies that caused massive net demand/change
Modest Traffic
change and
Demand

4. C o m m e r c i a l D r i v e r s
Top IT copies that caused massive net demand/change
Device / Customer
Driven net design
who/what is the
next apple and the
next iPhone
Rapid
Device / Customer
Driven net design
who/what is the
next apple and the
next iPhone

5. B I G G ES T G A M E C H A N G E R S
S u p e r C o m p u t e r p o w e r, b r o w s e r & a p p s i n h a n d
iPhone 4 &
Beyond
Cray II Super
Computer

6. C a u s a l i t y
Sporadic mobile working
The office is whereyou happen to be
PEOPLE/DEVICE
HABITS DRIVE
NETWORK DEMAND
The Stochastic
nature of demand
shapes net design
The nature of
WORK and working
changed FOREVER

7. People to AI
AI to AI
AI to People
Analogue/ DIGITAL
Demand impossible
to predict
A I A S A S E RV I C E
Another big game changer to come
People to machine
Machine to Machine
Machine to People
Sociology of People
Ai / People
Sociology of AI

8. Digital Computers
required to filter
out correct answers
Quantum
Computing is
Analogue not digital
Q u a n t u m C o m p u t i n g
P o s s i b l y t h e b i g g e s t g a m e c h a n g e r e v e r ?
Potential network
demands beyond our
ability to predict
A future tool for
net simulation and
design

9. Q C R e a l i t y
A t e c h n o l o g y i n d o u b t
Q u a n t u m C o m p u t i n g
successes tend to be
modest and very hard
won!
It is not at all clear
when and if we will get
w o r k i n g p r o d u c t s o f
significant power.
To date QCs have yet
t o o v e r t a k e t h e i r
d i g i t a l f o r e b e a r s i n
a n y s i g n i f i c a n t
calculation space!

10. Q C D R E A M
A b i g t e c h m i r a c l e
Quantum AI ?
New machine-machine paradigms
New human-machine paradigms
Designing beyond human abilty
Deep analysis and prediction
Widespread global influence
New nets/protocols evolve
+++++

11. !
C O M B I N A T O R I C S
More states than atoms in the universe

12. !
I n t e g r at e d
3D Printed and Puncture Free
Integrated Wheel, Brakes,
Electric Motor, Sensors &
Active Suspension
All fully instrumented and
monitored components
providing safety and
control feedback

13. IoT EXEMPLAR
Wired/Wireless sensor net
All critical components are
monitored for wear
and performance -
to communicate
with on and off
board analysis
No sensor communicates
beyond the internal net -
a centra hub collects data
and communicates direct
to the pits continuously
Stochastic
states continual
reporting

14. our cars are next
Wired/Wireless sensor net
Stochastic
states and
reporting
Sensors do not
communicate beyond
internal net - a centra hub
analyses data and communicates
sporadically with service centre/s

15. IoT Challenge
A Faraday Cage of shielding
Direct container to shore
fundamentally impossible
Randomised
container-to-container
mesh networks can do the job at
very low energy and cost throughout
this Faraday Cage of stacked containers
A battery life
>10 years
required

16. Direct content of boxes,
or direct box to 3/4/5G
fundamentally impossible
Randomised content-to-content-to-box
and on to pallet-to-pallet-to-container
networks can do the job!
IoT Challenge
A Faraday Cage of shielding
A battery life
>1 year required

17. vehicle to vehicle
W i re l e s s , a c o u s t i c , o p t i c a l s e n s o r s
Communication V2V >> 5G
Designated Vehicle/s
can act as 5G
core hub/s
Stochastic
states and
reporting

18. Linked PRODUCTS
Monitoring the in:out and effect…
Stochastic
states and
reporting

19. Data Storage
Dynamic and non-uniform

20. PRODUCT System NetS
Traditional design methodologies migrating to evolution
Old order embraced
optimisation and
is now unfit for
purpose
The New Order
Evolutionary: realising adaptability
& resilience through inefficiency;
what works and is good enough!

21. Clustered NETs
Dynamic focused mesh forms?
Clustered by applications &
users; convenience; and/or
nearest resource, and
connect point+++
Modelling average patterns
and behaviours possible,
but the extremes and
actual distributions
most likely to be
impossible
W
E
HAVE
NO
A-PRIORI
EXPERIENCE

22. E m e r g e n t N E Ts
Dynamic multiple mesh forms?

23. SEGUAY To:
Axioms
Intelligence must have some form of input and an output
Memory & processing power are not always essential
Communication and connection are essentials
Things that think want to link
Tenets
Intelligence is an emergent property of complex systems
Not all complex systems exhibit intelligence
Intelligence always involves communication
All intelligences are entropic
AI always seeks the truth

24. 5
TYPE 1
Reactive
Task Specific
Very Limited
Largely Pattern Matching
Human Programmers: Chess, cards,
dominoes data, speech, pictures,
characters, behaviours, movements+
Narrow Cognition
Largely Programmed by AI alone:
Subsume the networked knowledge
of previous and current generations
TYPE 3
Reasoning
Multi-Task Ability
Broadly Applicable
TYPE 2
Learning
Task Specific
Broadly Applicable
Memory and Analysis
Initial Human AI Program That Then
Adapts: Recognises highly complex/
large scale non-linear relationships
A I L A D D E R
Progress & Categories
Full Awareness
May be categorised as a ‘being’:
With a wide range of sensory units
networked to other machines
TYPE 4
Self-Aware
~ 70yrs to become a solid
& deployable technology
2027 Robotic embodiment,
extensive sensors & actuators
plus entity networking
rapidly raises the game
2017 Google Alpha GO
p r o p e l s A I i n t o a n
autonomous future of
learning & doing
2024 AI-Human cooperation
see exponential innovation &
progress of AI capabilities

25. A I - VAST C H O I C E
Most are emerging from IoT modelling
A ‘zoo’ of AI Neural Network configurations
have been ‘established’ by ‘near optimised’
apps created over the past 70 years…

26. Actuator
A
Processor
P1
Memory
M
Processor
P2
Sensors
S
T
T
System
Environs
S i m p l e A n i m a l
Assuming a simple model of this form

27. Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )]
S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory
Followed by analysis and some math
juggling, normalisation, and
engineering licence…
…resulted in this descriptor for
Comparative Intelligence:-

28. 1960 70 80 90 2000 10
ComputingPowerMIP/s
Intelligence
Level
PC
Pundit Estimates
of Artificial Intelligence
Compared to Biology
Internet
R i s e o f I n t e l l i g e n c e
Our Estimate = Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )]

29. SEGUAY BACK: Suppositions
Dynamic focused mesh forms?
Chance local & general net synchrony highly likely
Emergent local and general ‘AI - like’ highly probable
Sensors add to the likelihood that some form of AI will occur
We may see the rapid rise of machine decision dominance over humans
Sociologies of things likely to manifest with invisible communications/agendas
Dynamic topologies almost certain to eclipse most implementations by design
We will no doubt observe, discover and learn a lot of new phenomena !

30. AXIOMS
Testing our complex systems/networks is now fundamentally impossible
We are continually wrong footed by customer & machine behaviours
CyberSecurity has to be fully automated/pre-emptive, not reactive!
Evolution and emergent behaviours have transcended engineering design
Combinatorial complexity now outguns our ability to model and predict
5G will never be the dominant player that industry is promoting
Most “things” on the IoT will never connect directly to the internet
There is no spectrum crisis - only a very badly managed resource
Bandwidth is free & we should exploit it to simplify our systems
Energy use has to transcend the $$ as a primary design driver
Future net topologies may be determined by AI and not us!

31. Energy 1: there is not enough energy on
the planet to power > 250Bn things using
5G and cell sites infrastructures - and we
have no credible battery solutions
Energy 2: we have to get down to µW and
nW with distances in the range 1 - 10m
with battery lives up to10+ years
Challenge
Today the internet and all our devices
cost ~ 10% of all the energy generated

32. scarcity illusion This is allocation and application
and not usage or exploitation!

33. Visible waste We have no digital wireless systems - only
analogue - with modems at each end !
All our design principles stem from the 1930/50s with big
towers, long-range broadcast and communications for
Millions and Millions of static users!
It really is time to go all digital, for very short range, secure
and very low power for Bns & Bns of mobile users & the IoT !
NOTICE
ALL
THE
W
ASTED
SIGNAL
SPACE

34. LAND OF PLENTY
<00.1% of usage
Natures Natural Filters
To be exploited for signal processing,
coding and energy reduction
>99.9% of usage

35. Degrees of freedom
S/N
Frequency
Time
I = k.B.T.log2(1+kS/N)
Invisible @ >10dB below the thermal noise
Think information volume
and not signal space !
The same information conveyed by different
combinations of S/N , BW and Time

36. BW ~ 500MHz
U W B -T O - H y p e r ( H W B )
All digital no analogue - mixers, amplifies, filters
UWB
HWB Hyper Wide Band
BW ~ 50GHz
Negates phase noise, oscillator stability, scattering, interference,
reflections, improves security and link resilience…
1bit/Hz
0.01bit/Hz

37. Antennas: spanning huge
frequency ranges are the
engineering ideal. BUT this is
a non-trivial problem…and
whilst fractal antennas are
the theoretical holy grail, no
one has yet succeeded in
realising bench mark designs
Challenge

38. VACUUM
All of this demands bigger and better core networks with
more FTTT(ower), FTTP(remises), FTTH(ome), FTTR(oom)
and all with far higher speeds. The exponential demand is
not going to stop or slow down…it will most likely accelerate !
Politicians, Investors, Media, Mobile Industry still don’t get it!
NET
RESULT
5G
Cannot
Deliver

39. “The future is not exactly
in our engineering hands…
but it will emerge for sure”
Thank You
www. petercochrane.com