Summary There has never been a time in the history of our species that has seen such innovation and rapid progress; and we have never been so confounded by the world we have realized! For sure, we have crossed the Rubicon from a linear past to a non-linear future and find ourselves lacking many of the basic tools we need to fully address the major problems confronting us. In such an environment we have to prepared to be ‘unreasonable’, to challenge established wisdom, conventions and practices. So in this session, I present three challenging cases that do just that: 1) Wireless Spectrum: It is infinite and there is no bandwidth crisis! 2) Cyber Security: We need auto-immune systems aka biology 3) Information War: The biggest threat to the survival of our species

1. S c i e n c e a n d E n g i n e e r i n g
o ut o f t h e BOX
Peter Cochrane
Prof Peter Cochrane OBE
www.petercochrane.com

2. 601 × 261601 × 261
M u lt i - B Ox u n i v e r s e
Working inside the bounds of the status
quo ensures almost certain failure!
“We cannot solve problems with the
same thinking that created them”

3. 601 × 261
A M u lt i - B O X W o r l d
Solutions now tend to be multi-disciplinary
Sitting in one box: looking into the originating
framework is unlikely to see a novel solution
when we have most likely exhausted all the
options - and all the degrees of freedom!
The world of Boil, Hook,Newton
et al is long gone and so has all
the simplicity
We have realised that
our world & universe
are complex

4. G I A N T L E A P s
We should not fear being wrong !
Thermodynamics & Information Theory tells us
that we will never understand this with this…
BUT it took many years for those engaged in
‘brain studies’ to work through a lot of
empiricism before they admitted defeat!
…a team of these is often an insignificant
increase in the processing power wrt the
scale of problems we can now face!
LOOking beyond
our discipline OR
box is now
ever
more necessary

5. G I A N T L E A P s
We should embrace the new - fast !
A new and different assistant/team member maturing fast
Potentially the biggest AI/Thinking Machine ever…if
we can get it to work reliably !QC

6. https://www.google.com/url?
sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi1p_qzqMnkAhVGcBQKHQ4fDBo
ratioscientiae.weebly.com%2Fratio-scientiae-blog%2Fdefending-established-sci
man&psig=AOvVaw3ys9vDQSCOEkjuGaUdF6Jj&ust=15683099

7. https://www.google.com/url?
sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi1p_qzqMnkAhVGcBQKHQ4fDBo
ratioscientiae.weebly.com%2Fratio-scientiae-blog%2Fdefending-established-sci
man&psig=AOvVaw3ys9vDQSCOEkjuGaUdF6Jj&ust=15683099
I have been
unreasonable
all my
life
This does not
IMPLY
unpleasant
or
obstructive

8. S i n g l e i ss u e t h i n k i n g
May be OK(?) for a simple world but dangerous in a complex one
Complexity demands we
take a wide angle view!

9. A c l ea r a n d p r es e nt t h r eat
We can see it and we have lots of data, but no accurate models
“ R e v e r s i n g b a c k
down the CO2 curve
of pollution will not
see a return to our
o r i g i n a l c l i m a t i c
starting point…we
will arrive at a new
point of stability…
and we don’t know
where and what that
might be”

10. A c l ea r a n d p r es e nt t h r eat
We can see it and we have lots of data, but no accurate models
“ R e v e r s i n g b a c k
down the CO2 curve
of pollution will not
see a return to our
o r i g i n a l c l i m a t i c
starting point…we
will arrive at a new
point of stability…
and we don’t know
where and what that
might be”
A massive ice
melt and ocean
warming has
been triggered Tree planting to
compansate for
amazon logging
will impact too

11. C H O OS I N G S i m p l e
Simple decisions require little or no thinking

12. Technology
Ecology
d e p e n d e n cy J I GS AW
Economics
Society
Industry
Care
Markets
Trade
Education
Policing
Defence
Commerce
Security
Logistics
Finance
Government
Companies
W e h a v e n o m o d e l o r u n d e r s t a n d i n g
“Sometimes we might observe or infer some
limited relationships along with typical
characteristics”
“We have exceeded the bounds of our Math Frameworks and computer modelling is the only
tool we have, but it is not enough”
Law & Order
Defence
Education
Health
Institutions
Make a change to any
one element and the
w h o l e f e e l s t h e
impact - later!

13. Technology
Ecology
d e p e n d e n cy J I GS AW
Economics
Society
Industry
Care
Markets
Trade
Education
Policing
Defence
Commerce
Security
Logistics
Finance
Government
Companies
W e h a v e n o m o d e l o r u n d e r s t a n d i n g
“Sometimes we might observe or infer some
limited relationships along with typical
characteristics”
“We have exceeded the bounds of our Math Frameworks and computer modelling is the only
tool we have, but it is not enough”
Law & Order
Defence
Education
Health
Institutions
Make a change to any
one element and the
w h o l e f e e l s t h e
impact - later!
Complex Chaotic
Stochasic and
fully
interdependent latency tends to
afford The
illusion of some
success

14. BIO-TECH nano-TECH
AIRoboticsMulti-Disciplinary
hot spot for the 21C
New materials
New industries
New processes
New capabilitiess
Lower energy
Lower waste
Less friction
I 4 . 0 + I o T + + + P r o l o g u e
I n c o n t e x t : S e t t i n g t h e S c e n e a n d E x p e c t a t i o n

15. BIO-TECH nano-TECH
AIRoboticsMulti-Disciplinary
hot spot for the 21C
New materials
New industries
New processes
New capabilitiess
Lower energy
Lower waste
Less friction
I 4 . 0 + I o T + + + P r o l o g u e
I n c o n t e x t : S e t t i n g t h e S c e n e a n d E x p e c t a t i o n
p
o
lis
h
in
g
a
ll
o
u
r
o
ld
in
d
u
s
t
r
ies
is
n
o
t
en
o
u
g
h
w
e
n
eed
m
u
c
h
m
o
r
e

16. IoT
3G
4G
5G
Blue
Tooth
WiFi GSM
EGSM
LTE
Mesh-Nets
ZigBee
UNBLoRa
RPMA
BLE
UNB
UWB
W-P
Manufacture
R&D
BIO- nano
AIRobotics
BIGger Picture
C r e a t i n g s u s t a i n a b l e f u t u r e s
IoT = The future
n e r v o u s s y s t e m
o f t h e I o T a n d
t h e E c o s p h e r e
f o r h u m a n s a n d
t h e p l a n e t

17. IoT
3G
4G
5G
Blue
Tooth
WiFi GSM
EGSM
LTE
Mesh-Nets
ZigBee
UNBLoRa
RPMA
BLE
UNB
UWB
W-P
Manufacture
R&D
BIO- nano
AIRobotics
BIGger Picture
C r e a t i n g s u s t a i n a b l e f u t u r e s
IoT = The future
n e r v o u s s y s t e m
o f t h e I o T a n d
t h e E c o s p h e r e
f o r h u m a n s a n d
t h e p l a n e tIoT set to become
dominant comms
connect data and
intelligence
domain

18. W h o D a r es ?
T h i n k i n g / B e i n g D i f f e r e n t !
“Bandwidth is free”
“Distance is irrelevant”
“We cannot charge for time”
“The IoT needs an auto-immune system”
“False information & truth denial”
Telecoms 1982:
Cyber Security 1998:
ThreatScape 2008:
The Future:
“The rise and rise of ignorance”
A very small sample of my quotes
that span a lifetime in science,
engineering and technology

19. A x i o m at i c 1 9 8 2 ?
Bandwidth is free
Distance is irrelevant
We cannot charge for time
Optical fibre changed everything !

20. A x i o m at i c 1 9 8 2 ?
Bandwidth is free
Distance is irrelevant
We cannot charge for time
Optical fibre changed everything !
PONS were an
obvious bad
choice based on
old costing and
old
thinking

21. A x i o m at i c 1 9 8 2 ?
Optical fibre far more economic, reliable, and
1,000,000 s fold more bandwidth….
Fibre fed cells would devastate this world
wireless and create an entirely new one!

22. GENESIS
Fork lift radio - analogue - long distances - lots of power
CW, AM, FM, SSB+++
P2P Fixed, Broadcast+++
LW, MW, SW, VHF, UHF+++
Terrestrial, Maritime, Airborne+++
Fixed and mobile broadcast
radio & TV receivers dominate
followed by simplex voice
transceivers

23. Big cells and n x1000s of towers
MOBILE
~10Bn live devices on 3/4G
connected to a global net of
duplex voice & data comms
• Digital modes only
• Personal mixed use and traffic
• Static base stations dominate
• Terrestrial concentration
• Large cells <20km

24. slow forward
Small cells and Nx1000s of masts
• Exponential traffic growth
• Concentrated communities
• Death of the fixed line phone
• Users demand more bandwidth
• Cells <1km

25. Now 2
DIY WiFi
P l u g a n d p l a y
n o e x p e r t i s e
re q u i re d !

26. Now 2
DIY WiFi
P l u g a n d p l a y
n o e x p e r t i s e
re q u i re d !
WiFi ~ 55%
Copper/FTTP ~ 45%
3 + 5G ~5%
Internet Traffic

27. Observations
It is a miracle it all works
Protocols very inefficient
We avoid interference by dynamic juggling!
The spectrum shortage is an illusion
We seldom use more than 20% of the available space
5G unlikely to be a big player
It cannot fully service the IoT
We need more than incrementalism
More bands, channels, modulation and coding schemes are not enough

28. Does everything, but badly
THE BIG FIX ?
5g
• Replaces optical fibre
• Outguns 3 & 4G
• Gbit/s everywhere
• Will dominate the IoT
• +++++
• Cooks a chicken
• Improves your sex life….

29. n e w d i r e c t i o n S
From connected people to connected things
People
~10Bns
Traffic
~1 Bn
Goods
~100Bns
Components
~1 Tn IoT

30. Device to PRODUCT
Monitoring the in:out and effect…

31. Ship to
shore
Container
to Ship
H I D D E N V A L U E
In every container operation globally
BIG DATA = Container, schedule/location ?
Small DATA = Status of container contents ?

32. 3,4,5G nets
cannot support
the demands of
future traffic and
logistic networks…
but vehicle to vehicle
systems can…by providing
the most efficient and relevant
linking of users reporting their status
and sharing local/pertinent information
Intelligent too ?
Nets and Clouds without infrastructure

33. Broadcasting
Malware
Responding
with updated
protection Wider
Network
Updated
Latest
Solution
Update
Dynamic isolation of infected
devices and components
leading to repair
Auto-immunity
A mix of clean and infected
For more goto
UCISA Conference
Birmingham May 2018

34. Auto-immunity
Mirrors biological forebears
Applied everywhere 24 x 7
ICs
ISPs
WiFi
Hubs
LANs
Cards
Traffic
Servers
Circuits
Devices
Internet
Networks
Organisations
Companies
Platforms
Groups
People
Mobile
Fixed
For more goto
UCISA Conference
Birmingham May 2018

35. N e w M o d e s
More things linking off net than on

36. N e w M o d e s
More things linking off net than on
Most THINGS will never connect to the internet
THINGS will want to network and connect with other THINGS
The IoT is entirely evolutionary and not just revolutionary
New sporadic networks and associations will occur
Huh
!!

37. E n e r g y l i m i t a t i o n S
We cannot realise such a future using our current approach
Internet and connected devices ~ 10% of all energy generated
What would 50, 250 or 1000Bn IoT devices demand ?
We have to get down from mW to µW, nW and pW
This demands ‘simplicity’ of processing and communications

38. C o n t i n u e t W e a k i n g ?
This heritage/thinking cannot possible get us there

39. The Illusion of scarcity
Why do we do this - it is largely legacy thinking

40. The Illusion of scarcity
Why do we do this - it is largely legacy thinking
Actually the
spectrum
is m
ostly unused!

41. A dense London location
~50k WiFi nodes within a 1km radius of Liverpool St
Very low RF Signal
occupancy typical of most
modern cities & rural locations

42. adopting reverse gear?
Status Quo
New Track ?
Analogue
pretending
to be digital
High
energy
& complex
Pure digital
Low
energy
& simple
Conserving bandwidth for medium /long distance
mobile communication
Wasting bandwidth
for ultra-short IoT
distances

43. OpportunitY Space
High loss is a short distance/reuse +++
God Given Spatial Filters
Status Quo
Leave well
alone
New Territory
and new
opportunities
Continues untouched
All modulation
schemes from
the past +new
New modulation
schemes & modes
including hyper
Direct Sequence
Spread Spectrum

44. The Illusion of scarcity
Why do we do this - it is largely legacy thinking
far too complex & expensive
Unfit for the IoT purpose - especially at 30 - 300 GHz

45. N e w O p p o rt u n i t i es
High loss ideal for short distance/reuse +++
Direct Sequence
Spread Spectrum
way beyond UWB
HYPER
Direct Sequence
Spread Spectrum

46. S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds
Volumetric representation of S/N, BW and Time
Claude Shannon 1945/46
I = B.T log2(1 + k.S/N)
I ~ B.T.K.S/NdB
vv
Back to basics
k.S/N >> 1
With a little engineering licence

47. The same information transmitted in 3
different modes exploiting S/N, BW and T
S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds
degrees of freedom
Hugely simplified for the purposes
of explanation and clarity

48. S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds
In the Extreme
‘Waste Bandwidth’ to push the Signal Below the Noise

49. S/N dB
BW Hz
Duration
T seconds
In the Extreme
‘Waste Bandwidth’ to push the Signal Below the Noise
Filters
Coding
Modulation
Timing Recovery
Amplifiers & Mixers
Jitter
Phase Noise
Doppler Shift
Frequency Stability
Multi-Path Propagation
Negated

50. BW ~ 500MHz
All digital no analogue elements - mixers, amplifies, filters
UWB ON AFTERBURNERS
From UWB
To HWB Hyper Wide Band
BW ~ 50GHz
SIGNAL CODING/Error Correction => Bit Counting/Averaging
1bit/Hz
0.01bit/Hz

51. Huge amounts of electronic complexity along with:
Jitter
Filters
Coding
Modulation
Phase Noise
Doppler Shift
Timing Recovery
Frequency Stability
Multi-Path Propagation
W E J U S T N E G A T E D

52. Antennas spanning huge frequency ranges
are a non-trivial, & whilst fractal antennas
may be the ‘theoretical the holy grail’,
no one has realised their full promise
with workable/practical designs
on the scale we need
One MAJOR Challenge

53. Where does it come from ?
• From a direction you are not looking
• By a mechanism you didn’t contemplate
• At a time that is really inconvenient
D E AT H / D E F E AT/ Fa i l u r e

54. W A R FA R E
Scale of Potential Devastation
Potential Depth
of Penetration
Geographical
Metaphysical
Technological
Psychological
Ecological
Biological
Physical
Virtual
Real
A wider perspective
Land Sea Air Space Cyber Information

55. Cyber-Info War
Nuclear-Warfare
Bio-Chemical Warfare
W A R FA R E
Scale of Potential Devastation
Potential Depth
of Penetration
Geographical
Metaphysical
Technological
Psychological
Ecological
Biological
Physical
Virtual
Real
Total
Extinction
Trigger
Event
CatalystA wider perspective
Land Sea Air Space Cyber Information

56. Cyber-Info War
Nuclear-Warfare
Bio-Chemical Warfare
W A R FA R E
Scale of Potential Devastation
Potential Depth
of Penetration
Geographical
Metaphysical
Technological
Psychological
Ecological
Biological
Physical
Virtual
Real
Total
Extinction
Trigger
Event
CatalystA wider perspective
Land Sea Air Space Cyber Information
THERE IS ONLY
W
AR
AND
EVERY
DOMAIN
IS
INTERCONNECTED Governments
AND
The Military
Can
no
longer
protect their
citizens

57. This varies year- on-year tempered by actual events
P E R c e i v e d T h r e at s c a p e

58. This varies year- on-year tempered by actual events
P E R c e i v e d T h r e at s c a p e
The IOTISMissing
Insider threat
Recognised
But NOT YET A
PRIORITY

59. P E O P L E
Biggest primary risk
“I think can safely assume that lay people
will never master cyber security”
“Industry has to start supplying ‘complete
products and services’ and
long term support”
“We need equipment, devices, networks
capable of safe/secure self management
and autonomous operation”

60. T H r e a t s c a p e
AI behavioural analysis required
Fun
Fame
Notoriety
Vandalism
Limited Skills
Limited Resources
Tend to be Sporadic
Rogue States
Criminals
Hacker Groups
Hacktivist
Amateurs
Money
Sharing
Organic
Dispersed
Unbounded
Huge Effort
Progressive
Cooperatives
Self Organising
Vast Resources
Massive Market
Aggregated Skills
Semi-Professional
Substantial Networks
Skilled
Political
Idealists
Emotional
Relentless
Dedicated
Cause Driven
Vast Networks
Varied Missions
Targeted Attacks
Evolving Community
Drugs
Fraud
Global
Extreme
Extortion
Business
Unbounded
Professional
Well Managed
Well Organised
Ahead of the Curve
Orchestrated Effort
Extremely Profitable
Syndicated Resources
Massive Attack Surface
Vast up-to-date Abilities
Covert
Money
WarFare
Influence
Pervasive
Disruption
Espionage
Professional
Sophisticated
Well Organised
Extreme Creativity
Orchestrated Effort
Political Influencers
~Unlimited Resources
Tech/Thought Leaders
Regime Destabilisation
Population Manipulation
Military and Civil Domains
Most attacks/attack-types and security
failures traced back to human fallibility
People are unaware, innocent, gullible,
kind and helpful…exposed…but AI can
detect and signal almost all attack types
and attackers

61. I N S I D E R T H R E A T
Edward Snowden
reenactment
Accessing, recording,
and concealing data
Demands Human//IT behavioural monitoring
Casually walking
out of the door
For more goto UCISA
Conference
Birmingham May 2018

62. G R O U P T H R E A T
Demands wider behavioural monitoring
Chinese road, rail, airport, street
public place observation
Macau casino gaming table
cheating detection

63. G R O U P T H R E A T
Demands wider behavioural monitoring
Chinese road, rail, airport, street
public place observation
Macau casino gaming table
cheating detection
A
n
o
ther
BIG
step
to
w
a
rd
so
m
e
Dy
sto
pia
n
future

64. I o T C h a l l e n g e
Ubiquitous - Made in China sans security
IoT = Massive increase in attack surface: ~From10Bn to >> 50Bn devices
Existing security solutions better than useless - but only just!
New thinking and new solutions required
Single Source = A critical dimension to overall security risks
For more goto UCISA
Conference
Birmingham May 2018

65. I o T C h a l l e n g e
Ubiquitous - Made in China sans security
IoT = Massive increase in attack surface: ~From10Bn to >> 50Bn devices
Existing security solutions better than useless - but only just!
New thinking and new solutions required
Single Source = A critical dimension to overall security risks
For more goto UCISA
Conference
Birmingham May 2018
China makes a Big
Fraction of all
Devices and net
equipment SOURCE Identity
can be very hard
even imposible
to determiNe

66. WORLD
Loss of freedom of speech
Legal system collapse
Societal Breakdown
Loss of Liberty
Dictatorship
Police State
Despotism
++++
Lies
Half Truths
Misinformation
Perceptual Distortion
Character Assassination
Social Distortions
Disillusionment
Rumour Mills
Dogma
Distrust
Fake News
Censorship
Media Control
Societal Division
Democratic Failure
Government Intervention

67. USA LEADING THE WAY ?
Social division, breakdown of law and order
The
Cult of
Trump

68. Bigger and propagate faster, further,
and deeper than the truth and
validated information….and
now growing in volume,
extremism and span
LIES & FAKE NEWS

69. Bigger and propagate faster, further,
and deeper than the truth and
validated information….and
now growing in volume,
extremism and span
Sim
ple
&
Easy to
Grasp
Plays to DispositionsLIES & FAKE NEWS
Creates social division, social instability, unease,
dissatisfaction, paranoia, extremism, rebellion,
social instability leading to violence…
No Thinking Required
Reinforces Prejudices

70. E N E M Y W I T H I N
Routine lies and info/data distortion
Leaders
Bankers
Politicians
Managers
Activists
Media

71. E N E M Y W I T H O U T
Using a new; powerful weapon of war
Ideological subversion: Changing the perceptions of populations to such an
extent that despite an abundance of data/information no one can to come to
sensible conclusions to defend themselves/families, their community/country”
Demoralisation (15 to 20 years) Re-educate one generation of students and change
their perceptions and thinking
Destabilisation (2 - 5 years) Target essential structural elements of a nation: economy,
foreign relations, and defence systems
Normalisation (4 weeks) Take over = people living under a new ideology and reality
Four Basic Stages
Crisis (6 weeks) Violent disruption to, and change of: power, structure, and economy

72. LANDSCAPE of liars
Banks
Media
Moguls
Groups
Criminals
Politicians
Terrorists
Individuals
Institutions
Industrialists
Rogue States
Governments
Political Factions
+++++
Hackers
Despots
Dictators
Reporters
Executives
Extremists
Companies
Conspirators
The Paranoid
The Vulnerable
The Disaffected
The Mischievous
The Disadvantaged
+++++
Elusive
Amoral
Corrupt
Dynamic
Dedicated
Unethical
Disguised
Nefarious
Transient
Relentless
Dedicated
Networked
Distributed
Untraceable
Multi-Media
Evolutionary
Camouflaged
Multi-Faceted
Multi-Dimensional

73. EXTREME W EAPONS

74. Science, Discovery and
Fundamental Truths
Technology, Engineering
and Infrastructures
Farming, Food, Industries
Institutions and Defence
B a l a n c i n g A C T
Government
Media, Society
No place for lies & dubious truths

75. Science, Discovery and
Fundamental Truths
Technology, Engineering
and Infrastructures
Farming, Food, Industries
Institutions and Defence
Lies
Untruths
Errors
Guesses
Distortions
Cross Checks
Evidence Base
Understanding
Knowledge
Theories
Models
Tests
B a l a n c i n g A C T
Government
Media, Society
No place for lies & dubious truths

76. E X P L O I TAT I O N
A new; powerful weapon of war
Continually scan the internet:
- Purge errors
- Flag lies & liars
- Publish veracity ratings
- Remove/Attenuate rogue users
- Block/Remove/Attenuate extreme channels
- Identify/Advertise regular/persistent offenders
- Attenuate/Attack/Disable criminal/rogue states
- Detect an disconnect postings by AI lie generators
- Isolate and mute rogue states and criminals
Key Enabler = TRUTH ENGINES

77. T H E B I G Q U ES T I O N S
Can we accurately and reliably identify truths,
half truths, distortions, falsehoods and lies ?
Can we establish new framework and metrics ?
Can we make judgement calls fast enough ?
Can we block/attenuate the pernicious ?
Can we continuously cleanse the net ?
Can we educate society to the risks ?
✔
✔
✔ ?
✔ ?
? ?
? ? ? ?

78. T r u t h E n g i n e s
Easy to confirm facts - conjecture is harder
Vital for:
• Politics
• Society
• Science
• Farming
• Internet
• Security
• Industry
• Education
• Healthcare
• Commerce
• Government
• ++++
“In most arenas truth is
dynamic and changes
with our ability to
test & measure”
“Accepted truths advance
toward an absolute state
with our ability to
challenge them”
Ignorance & Uncertainty
Flat
Spheroid
Flat
Spheroid
Oblate Spheroid
Dynamic Oblate Spheroid
Precision Measurement & Truth

79. 1) Blatant: Knowingly contrived and delivered information
2) White: Knowingly contrived in order to be polite or to
stop someone from being upset by the truth
3) Propagating: Repeat a stated lie without fact checking
4) Falsehood: To knowingly distort the truth or facts
5) Misinterpretation: Knowingly or unknowingly distort
the truth or facts
6) Error: Innocently distort situations, events, truth or facts
7) Latent Error: Representing dynamic situations,
occurrences, truth or facts on the basis of old information
L I ES

80. E x p e r i m e n ts/ TO O LS
8) Bayesian Inference: Detecting a lie from linguistic patterns
and previous behaviours of individuals and populations?
9) Simple AI: Can we detect and/or identify linguistic patterns
and/or previous behaviours of individuals and populations?
10) Correlations: Can we detect repeating patterns for known
lies and liars?
11) Trending Analysis: Can we establish historical analysis of
past reporting as a reliable measure of accuracy?
12) Lie Recognition: Can we devise metrics from (8-11)
above to detect an lie and then categorise it aka (1-7) ?
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔

81. W h at W e N e e d
Print Radio TV On ScreenSpokes People
Context - Meaning Extractor - Inference Engine
Fact Checkers - Primary Source Identification/Proximity
Style - Behaviours, History, Publications Analysis
Trending Analysis - Veracity % Rating
✔
✔
✔
✔

82. CO R E QU EST I O NS
Veracity, accuracy, credibility testing
Who is the author ?
Why did they publish ?
Who do they work for ?
What is their reputation ?
Are they paid/sponsored ?
Do they have a following ?
Do they cite trusted sources ?
Do they have relevant expertise ?
What is their purpose/motivation ?
Is the material current/outdated ?
What site/s is/are being used ?
++++++
Corroboration !
Fact Checking !
Correlation !
Likelihood !
Confidence
Trending !
History !
C O U L D W E
A U T O M A T E
A L L T H I S

83. T H E DY N A M I CS
Information spreading world-wide
Errors, distortions, interpretations,
air time availability, sensationalism,
number of reports disconnected
from any real significance, sees
distorted perceptions
Identify primary sources and all
qualified reports… not always
possible…especially when a
story is developing rapidly…
the environment is extremely
noisy !
P E O P L E
A s s o c i a t E
V O L U M E
W I T H T R U T H

84. C h e c k i n g
Easy To Do ?
Snopes
Politifact
FactCheck
Wikipedia
ProPublica
MBFCNews
OpenSecrets
NewsBusters
MediaMatters
FactCheck.org
HoaxSlayer.net
TruthOrFiction.com
Washington Post Fact Checker
+++++
People intensive

85. C h e c k i n g
Easy To Do ?
Snopes
Politifact
FactCheck
Wikipedia
ProPublica
MBFCNews
OpenSecrets
NewsBusters
MediaMatters
FactCheck.org
HoaxSlayer.net
TruthOrFiction.com
Washington Post Fact Checker
+++++
People intensive
AGGREGATION
Fact Checking Organisations
Now exceed 160 World-Wide
Collaboration, aggregation, sharing,
and networking between checker
projects underway in >50 countries
R i p e f o r
A u t o m a t i o n

86. TESTED resources
≈ ≈
Accurate
80%

87. TESTED resources
≈ ≈
Accurate
80%
~ 45%
Accurate
A
F U N C T I O N
O F
T R U T H
B E I N G
D Y N A M
I C

88. A comprehensive
construct of every
uttered, printed and
recorded lie over all
time is required as a
reference source
across all human and
A I i n f o r m a t i o n
sources…
…does not exist as
yet, but independents
are starting to build
the components….
L I B R A RY
O F L I ES

89. A comprehensive
construct of every
uttered, printed and
recorded lie over all
time is required as a
reference source
across all human and
A I i n f o r m a t i o n
sources…
…does not exist as
yet, but independents
are starting to build
the components….
L I B R A RY
O F L I ES
www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html
http://www.davesweboflies.com/dwol.htm
https://

90. A comprehensive
construct of every
uttered, printed and
recorded lie over all
time is required as a
reference source
across all human and
A I i n f o r m a t i o n
sources…
…does not exist as
yet, but independents
are starting to build
the components….
L I B R A RY
O F L I ES
www.thestar.com/news/world/uselection/2016/11/04/donald-trump-the-unauthorized-database-of-false-things.html
http://www.davesweboflies.com/dwol.htm
https://
Human LEGAL
POLITIcS AND
BEUROCRACY
CONSTRAINTS
ARE THE PRIMELIMITERS
Not hard tocompile butrequires acoordinatedAUTOMATED
global efforT

91. s e n s at i o n a l i s m
F u k u s h i m a g r o s s o v e r e s t i m a t e s
Feb 27, 2017
Fukushima prefecture tallied 2,129
“disaster-related deaths”
1368 have been listed as
"related to the nuclear power plant”
One worker is acknowledged to have
died from radiation induced illness
The Tsunami killed over 15,000 people
Chernobyl Radiation Related Deaths
Only 31 to date - since 1986 - but
published estimates up to 600,000

92. s e n s at i o n a l i s m
F u k u s h i m a g r o s s o v e r e s t i m a t e s
Feb 27, 2017
Fukushima prefecture tallied 2,129
“disaster-related deaths”
1368 have been listed as
"related to the nuclear power plant”
One worker is acknowledged to have
died from radiation induced illness
The Tsunami killed over 15,000 people
Chernobyl Radiation Related Deaths
Only 31 to date - since 1986 - but
published estimates up to 600,000
A
ssessin
g
cases
like
this
is
easy
but
perplex
in
g
as
truth
is
n
ot
im
portan
t
to
such
sources

93. A text only app (for now) based on language nuances
A I N L P L I E D E T E C T O R S
Companies + Universities
>1000 Sample Articles
>200 Participants
>30 Countries
42 Teams
1 Week
Mission = To Detect
Propaganda
Fake News
Lies
Outcome
10 Top Teams
>86% Accuracy
www.datasciencesociety.net

94. B e y o n d H u m a n C a p a b i l i t y
D E L AY E D T I M E L I N E
Applied across all sources continuously
Reported
Event
Established
Truth
Accuracy
Rating
100% 85% 95%90%
All Time
Aggregated
Trust Rating100% 95% 91.7% 92.5%

95. Trending long Term

96. Propaganda
Trending long Term

97. Trending long Term

98. T H E A M B I T I O N
Facts
Ethical
History
Honesty
Pedigree
Checked
Rectitude
Traceable
Authentic
Legitimate
Actuality
Genuine
Veracity
Verified
Correct
Certain
Maxin
Exact
++++
Misrepresentation
Misinterpretation
Disinformation
Manipulation
Subterfuge
Vilification
Ignorance
Invention
Mistakes
Delusion
Rumour
Malice
++++
Myth
Fable
Fraud
Errors
Fiction
Forgery
Distortion
Deception
Falsehood
Fabrication
Inaccuracy
Dishonesty
Falsehoods
Data Monitoring, Farming, Tracking,
Measures, Metrics, Analysis,
Decisions and Confidence
Truth Lies
A I ? Decisions to be automated & fast
The only technology we have
that might just do it is AI

99. TRUTH ENGINE STATUS !
Context/
Meaning
Extractor
Inference
Engine
Primary Source
Identifier
Fact
Checkers
Style
History
Publications
Behaviours
Library
of Lies
Trending
Analysis
Veracity
Rating

100. T H E U LT I M AT E F I X
A RED or the Blue pill for the public?
Morpheus and Neo
The Matrix 1999

101. Morpheus and Neo
The Matrix 1999
W E Do have a choice !

102. You do nothing - you wake up in your bed and believe
whatever you want to believe.
You build a Truth Engine and you stay in wonderland
and I might be able to show you how deep the rabbit
hole goes.
Remember, all I’m offering is the truth. Nothing more!
Peter Cochrane 2018
With thanks to
Morpheus and Neo
The Matrix 1999

103. Voight-Kampff Test - Replicant or Human?
Blade Runner 1982 Ridley Scott
Thank You
petercochrane.com
www.slideshare.net/PeterCochrane