Health care systems worldwide are unable to fully service the needs of aging populations, their accelerating demands and expectations driven by rapid technological advance. This situation is further exacerbated by outmoded operational/management models with constraints dating back to the 1950s. No amount of money or people will rectify this situation with even the richest and highest spending nations have discovered. So what is the answer? To a large part, health care systems have to migrate form Do It For Me to DIY aided and abetted by low cost medical/health technology for the home, on-line AI, and medical professional help. “Such a move would allow health services to focus on the serious and what they are good at instead of administering pills, potions and band aids” In this presentation we look at the next phase of ‘big change’ technologies and practices from Quantum Computing, AI through to the DIY scene in the 2019 - 2030 timeframe and award % likelihood scores for reasonably widespread adoption at a professional/patient level.

1. WHO CARES
2030
Peter Cochrane OBE
petercochrane.com

2. • All countries and care systems are struggling
• There are no ideal/perfect health solutions
• We have no metrics by which to judge
• Political twiddling is not the way
• Patient hype/expectation is on the up
• Technology is offering more and more
• 1950/60s models/thinking will not work
AXIOMS & RealitIES
Death is now seen as an unnatural act across the West

4. Sudden
Death
Terminal
Illness
Organ
Failure
Frailty
Long
Term
Decline
Functionality
Increasing Lifespan
Productive
Years
Failure and
Dependency
Models Work - sort of ! New Model(s) Required
ChallengeH e a l t h c a r e l a n d s c a p e
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

5. 10 Game Changers
In just 11 years 2019 - 2030
What is the % likelihood of ‘X’ being
available in this 2030 time frame…

6. 1) Quantum CoMputing
What is the likelihood of ‘X’ being available in
this time frame - as a % for each category
IFF > 100 Qbits @ a low error probability
For the first time we will be able to understand:
- Complexity
- Chemistry
- Biology
- Life
And decode:
- Complex Drug Interactions
- Treatment Combinatorics
- Protein Folding
- Bio Signalling
- Stem Cells
- Immunity
40%

7. 2) Patient centric 90%

8. Challenge ?
O r a n e w c a r e p a r t n e r s h i p !
D r s a n d P a t i e n t s w i l l
b u i l d t h e u l t i m a t e
s e a r c h t r e e s !
A n d t h i s w i l l s e e A I
l e a r n i n g / d i s c o v e r i n g
n e w r e l a t i o n s h i p s

9. MD Programmer Security Researcher Analyst
~ 3
~ 2
~ 1
~ 0 . 3
~ 0 . 1
THE DATA TSUNAMI
M o s t o f w h a t w e u n d e r s t a n d i s w r o n g
Tr u e f o r m o s t p r o f e s s i o n a l s
a n d p a r t n e r s h i p s w i t h
A I a n e w n e c e s s i t y !
K n o w l e d g e / D a t a
H a l f L i f e

10. 5
TYPE 1
Reactive
Task Specific
Very Limited
Largely Pattern Matching
Human Programmers: Chess, cards,
dominoes data, speech, pictures,
characters, behaviours, movements+
Narrow Cognition
Largely Programmed by AI alone:
Subsume the networked knowledge
of previous and current generations
TYPE 3
Reasoning
Multi-Task Ability
Broadly Applicable
TYPE 2
Learning
Task Specific
Broadly Applicable
Memory and Analysis
Initial Human AI Program That Then
Adapts: Recognises highly complex/
large scale non-linear relationships
A I L A D D E R
Progress & Categories
Full Awareness
May be categorised as a ‘being’:
With a wide range of sensory units
networked to other machines
TYPE 4
Self-Aware

11. 5
TYPE 1
Reactive
Task Specific
Very Limited
Largely Pattern Matching
Human Programmers: Chess, cards,
dominoes data, speech, pictures,
characters, behaviours, movements+
Narrow Cognition
Largely Programmed by AI alone:
Subsume the networked knowledge
of previous and current generations
TYPE 3
Reasoning
Multi-Task Ability
Broadly Applicable
TYPE 2
Learning
Task Specific
Broadly Applicable
Memory and Analysis
Initial Human AI Program That Then
Adapts: Recognises highly complex/
large scale non-linear relationships
A I L A D D E R
Progress & Categories
Full Awareness
May be categorised as a ‘being’:
With a wide range of sensory units
networked to other machines
TYPE 4
Self-Aware
~ 70yrs to become a solid
& deployable technology
2027 Robotic embodiment,
extensive sensors & actuators
plus entity networking
rapidly raises the game
2017 Google Alpha GO
p r o p e l s A I i n t o a n
autonomous future of
learning & doing
2024 AI-Human cooperation
see exponential innovation &
progress of AI capabilities

12. 3) ROBOT SURGERYA u t o n o m o u s a n d g l o b a l l y n e t w o r k e d
W h e n o n e r o b o t
d i s c o v e r s o r l e a r n s
s o m e t h i n g , s o d o e s
t h e e n t i r e n e t w o r k
90%

13. new possiBiliTiesA u t o n o m y f r o m t h e m i c r o t o t h e m a c r o

14. A u t o n o m o u s / c o n t r o l l e d
4) nanoBots
85% 5%

15. 100%5) SENSOR NETS

17. 6 ) A R & V RTech is easy but humans !
Ipswich Hospital +
Ambulance Service
BTLabs 1995
Remote Endoscope
Positioning/Viewing
Remote Surgery
70%
Precursor HUD
to Google Glass

18. Tele-skills: teaching, training, coaching, support, transfer !

19. We might just have to
wait for a generation to
retire before we see
t h e s e t e c h n o l o g i e s
adopted
70%
N E W V i s ua l i s at i o nAn inside-outside view in real time !

20. 7) printed Parts
High precision, greater success rate,
better quality, lower cost
50%

21. Trachea
Vertebral Disc
Breathing Lung
NEW FOR OLD ?

22. 8 ) S T E M C E L L S
...many die or become disabled
through secondary infections...
Burns, Joints, Nervous System, Dementia +++… 60%

24. RAPID HEAL

26. P r o g n o s i s
Hospital
Prime Centre
of Expertise
& Capability
Medical Centre
Prime Point of Local
Capability
Home Based
Measurements
Monitoring
Medication
Technology
Push
- Patient Pull
M i g r a t i n g c e n t r e o f g r a v i t y

27. 6) DIY care?
Sensor tec hnolo gies a vailable
to all…
Low cost and affordable devices 90%

28. Linked PRODUCTS
Monitoring the in:out and effect…
40%

29. cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.biz
10) DIFM to DIYEncourage those who can to J DI
T h r e e s t o r i e s o f D I Y c a r e
60%
D I F M = D o I t F o r M e

30. 6 July 2015
Crash @
25mph
My WifeLife changing accident
Ultra-Sound bone growth stimulation
treatment at home + extensive
physiotherapy privately

31. 6 July 2015
Crash @
25mph
My WifeLife changing accident

32. TERMINUSConnecting to all the world
TV
HBO
Radio
Music
YouTube
Social Nets
Communities
Communications
Conferencing
Employment
Education
Shopping
Working
+++
Tablet £200 - £400
Mechanical Arm
and Holster £250
Speech Software
£100
Loudspeakers gives the illusion of
speech from the head
to promote eye contact

33. N I C EBlood Pressure
At age 70years
Routine check up 152/76 Heart Rate 74
Long term @ rest 128/69 Heart Rate 58
Short term @ gym 161/91 Heart Rate 125
Treatment Rejected by
by patient as unrequired

34. We all do !
Who Cares ?
Some will be
more capable
than others and
will the drive care
into the new
DIY era
Sharing solutions,
technology, knowledge will
change the risk/legal landscape !

35. Thank You
1995
petercochrane.com