Protecting project interests from possible risks of major financial liabilities has always been a major business concern. Projects must properly been managed by qualitative risk assessment to minimize or to avoid risk occur in a project planning.

1. Supported By
PETROSYNC’S PROJECT MANAGEMENT SERIES
Your Key To Analyse & Identify Risk In Project Risk Management
1 March—4 March 2016
Bali, Indonesia
PROJECTRISKASSESSMENT
&MANAGEMENT

2. 2
Our Project Risk Assessment and Management course is developed to present the purposes
and methods of risk management planning and employ opportunities and threats and the use
of the risk breakdown structure in risk identification.
PROJECT MANAGEMENT | PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT & MANAGEMENT
How Does This Course Benefits You?
Do you know that there are positive risk & negative risk in
modern risk approaches?
Learn the purposes and methods of risk management planning
Mastering the skills in risk management and employ both opportunities and threats and the
use of the risk breakdown structure in risk identification.
Attain the skill in demonstrating qualitative risk analysis methods and able to mitigate
project risks
Demonstrate qualitative risk analysis methods of ranking risks by probability and impact and
the use of those results to drive the quantitative risk analysis & risk response planning
Learn the quantitative analysis methods of cost and schedule risk
Employ quantitative analysis methods of cost and schedule risk by solving simple case
studies using manual analytic methods.
Learn new quantitative risk analysis methods of Risk Drivers & the integration of cost
and schedule risk analysis
Observe and explain modern quantitative risk analysis software and able to recognize the
characteristics of the mature project risk management organization.
Do you know that you will likely to find the large majority of
risk by combining different risk identification methods?
Protecting project interests from possible risks of major financial
liabilities has always been a major business concern. Projects must
properly managed by qualitative risk assessment to minimize or to
avoid risk occur in a project planning.
general@petrosync.com | +65 6451 4500 | www.petrosync.com
Course Overview
Course Design
This course focuses on qualitative risk analysis methods of ranking risks by probability and
impact and the use of those results to prepare risk response methods
You will learn to employ quantitative and qualitative analysis methods of cost and schedule
risk and decision tree analysis through case studies and practical exercises. Attendees will
also learn to demonstrate and apply six PMBOK® Guide (© Project Management Institute)
processes of project risk management .

3. 3
PROJECT MANAGEMENT | PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT & MANAGEMENT
PetroSync Distinguished Instructor
Who Needs This Program
Practical & Consulting
Over 25 years of experience in quantitative schedule risk
analysis, integrated cost-schedule risk & analysis & project
scheduling best practices
Training
Provides proprietary training in project risk management,
quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis and project
scheduling to various multinational oil & gas companies.
Regional
Clientele base is from Asia Pacific, US, Europe, South America &
Middle East
Awards
 Championed Risk Driver method
Publications
 Authored Practical Schedule Risk Analysis (Gower, 2009)
 Authored the Recommended Practice 57R-09 on Integrated
Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis
 Published Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis
David T. Hulett
Project Management &
Risk Analysis Consultant
People who are dealing with project selection & strategy, planning and scheduling. This
course covers the Project Risk Management knowledge area of the PMBOK® Guide.
Job Titles Include:
Project Managers
Project Team Leaders
Project Team Members
XXX
Project Risk Managers
Project Controllers
PetroSync Inhouse Solutions
PetroSync can tailor our courses to meet your specific
needs at your preferred location and schedule. Contact us
for more information at +65 6415 4500 or email to
general @petrosync.com
PetroSync Quality Assurance
All PetroSync courses are developed with top quality to
address all your training needs and purposes. Our courses
are vetted strictly to ensure that we always deliver the best
courses with the best industry expert.
general@petrosync.com | +65 6451 4500 | www.petrosync.com
08:00—09:00 Registration (Day 1) 13:00—14:00 Lunch
09:00—11:00 Session I 14:00—15:30 Session III
11:00—11.15 Refreshment Session I 15:30—15:45 Refreshment Session II
11:15—13:00 Session II 15:45—17:00 Session Iv (Last Session)
Course Schedule

4. 4
PROJECT MANAGEMENT | PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT & MANAGEMENT
Course Agenda — 4 Days
general@petrosync.com | +65 6451 4500 | www.petrosync.com
DAY 1
Introduction to Risk Analysis and Management
 Definitions of risk and uncertainty, opportunities and
threats
 Risk of interrelated project objectives
 Risk analysis and risk management
 Sources of project risk
 Company and personal attitudes toward risk
 Alternative responses to project risk
 Attributes of successful risk analysis
 Discussion: enablers and inhibitors in your company to
risk management?
Risk Management Planning
 Developing the approach to risk management to be used
 Determining the type of risk analysis, e.g. qualitative
assessment or quantification of risk (or both)
 Budgeting and Scheduling the risk management activities
 Discussion: how important is risk management planning
in your projects? Is it practiced in the planning stage of
the project?
Risk Identification
 Using Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) with categories of
risk – technical, external, organizational and project
management
 Brainstorming the project risks
 Structure of the Risk Statement (cause, risk, effect)
Risk Quantification – Simple Concepts in Probability
 Expected value, standard deviation calculations
 Likelihood of two events occurring together
 Discussion: How is risk quantification, different from
qualitative risk analysis, used in your company?
Project Cost Risk – Using Probability Distributions in Risk
Analysis
 The purpose of a cost risk analysis
 Inputs – the baseline cost estimate without embedded or
below-the-line contingency
 3-point ranges of uncertainty in cost estimates
 Select the cost elements worth risk ranging
 The Method of Moments analytical method for combining
uncertain costs
-Monte Carlo Simulation approach explained,
demonstrated
 Results:
-Total program cost risk results from the simulation
-Cost contingency calculation
-Identify elements of highest cost risk – tornado
Diagrams
Cost Risk Case Study – Offshore Gas Production Platform
(small groups, report back)
 Project cost estimate provided
 Determine the risk ranges for the selected cost elements
 Find the likelihood of overrun using the MOM and pocket
calculator
 Compute the needed contingency amount and percentage
 Discussion: The risks in a typical refinery upgrading
project
 Case study – Introduce the Offshore Gas Production
Platform for Risk Identification (in small groups)
-Develop a risk breakdown structure (RBS) of the
usual risks experienced in projects appropriate to the
case
-Identify risks in each category (small groups)
Qualitative Risk Assessment
 Ranking risk into Low, Moderate and High categories
 Defining the terms for probability and impact
 Using the Probability – Impact (PxI) Matrix approach
 Questions that elicit probability and impact scale results
 Combining probability and impact of risk events
 Risk registers are always incomplete, but why, how
to complete them?
 Case study –Implementing the (P-I) approach for the
Offshore Gas Production Platform (small groups, report
back results)
-Develop definitions for different levels of
probability and impact
-Use those definitions on the risks identified at Point
4 above, in small groups to develop likelihood and
impact scores
-Combine P-I scores and identify low, moderate and
high risks
-Report back to the group
Decision Tree Analysis for Risk Neutral and Risk Averse
Organizations
 Types of decisions for which decision trees are helpful
 Setting up the Decision Tree structure
 Adding cost, reward and probability data
 Rolling forward to calculate path values
 Folding back to calculate the event nodes and select the
decision node alternatives
 Risk Aversion-Utility function illustrated
 Key data indicated by sensitivity analysis
 Case study –Decision Tree (Building decision in an
Earthquake Zone)
Risk Data Collection
 Steps in collecting high-quality risk data
 Who should be interviewed? What other data sources do
we have?
 Motivational and organizational bias in collecting risk data
 Combating these biases
-Interviews vs. workshops, the value of confidentiality
-Risk-range the important cost risk elements only – the
Pareto concept
-The risk interview – rules and expectations
 Discussion: what are the inhibitors and enablers to
collecting unbiased risk data in your company?
DAY 2
Register For This Course Now!
Kindly fill up your particulars in the
registration form placed at the end of this
brochure, and send it to us or email to
registration@petrosync.com

5. 5
PROJECT MANAGEMENT | PROJECT RISK ASSESSMENT & MANAGEMENT
general@petrosync.com | +65 6451 4500 | www.petrosync.com
DAY 3
Modern quantitative risk analysis - using Risk Drivers in
cost risk analysis
 Identifying risks from the risk register
 Setting up the spreadsheet
 Assigning the risks to cost elements
 Monte Carlo simulation of the cost model
 How to consider the impact of schedule uncertainty on
project cost
The Monte Carlo simulation method
 Creating a synthetic sample of similar projects
 Making probabilistic statements from the synthetic
sample
 What is simulation? How does it work?
 Demonstration of @RISK Simulation Software with
Microsoft Excel using Risk Drivers
-Discuss the risks that you would put in for a Refinery
Upgrade Project
-Discuss the results compared to your company’s
experience-Benchmarking against experience, or the
“outside view”
Project Schedule Risk Analysis
Why conduct a schedule risk analysis?
Importance of best practice CPM project scheduling
 Using best practices Critical Path Method to develop the
project schedule
 Purpose of CPM scheduling as a basis of the quantitative
project schedule Monte Carlo simulation
Schedule risk analysis basics
 Risk in activity duration
 Use the uncertainty concepts or “Reference Ranges” to
help manage risk range data collection and uncertainty
modeling
 Risk along a path in critical path method network schedule
 Risk at convergence points of parallel paths – the “Merge
Bias”
 Identify the high risk elements – the “Highest Risk Path”
 Constraint dates in schedule risk – testing important dates
 Scarce resources in schedule risk – resource leveling
 Probabilistic branching
Schedule Risk Case Study (small groups, report back
results)
 Simple oil & gas project schedule network
 Identify Reference Ranges or important risk elements
 Use supplied risk ranges for selected elements
 Compute likelihood of overrun, contingency needed
 Use pocket calculators and the Method of Moments to
derive the total schedule finish date probability
distribution
Demonstrate Primavera Risk Analysis (Pertmaster) on
simple schedule
 Using the project example in the case study
 Compute probability of schedule overrun and schedule
contingency
 Identify the highest risk activities / paths
 Discussion: Questions about the Monte Carlo Simulation
method
DAY 4
Risk Driver Method Focus on risks rather than activities
 Uncertainty representing inherent variation, estimating
error/bias
 Risk Drivers applied to several or many activities
 Some activities have several Risk Drivers assigned
 Capture entire impact of individual risks including the
impact of the schedule’s structure
 Discussion: Use example of risks and uncertainties in the
resource-loaded offshore gas production platform
 Calculate correlation (rather than guess coefficients)
 Discussion: The concept of correlation and why it is
important
 Risk Prioritization to prepare for risk mitigation
 Prioritize schedule risks leading to Risk Response
Management and post-mitigated results
 Demonstrate Polaris and automated risk prioritization
on Offshore Gas Production Platform Project
Demonstrate the risk mitigation methods
 See how risk mitigation workshops help mitigate Risk
Drivers
 Model risk mitigation and compare with pre-mitigated
results
 What is a mitigation? Different from before, committed to,
funded, resourced, monitored
Integrate cost and schedule risk
 Use the schedule, assigned and costed summary resources
 Simulation captures schedule risk impact on the cost and
Risk Drivers’ impact on the burn rate of time-dependent
resources
 Scatter diagram, probabilistic cash flow
 Demonstrate these using Pertmaster software
 Discuss how oil & gas company budgets and schedules to
risk-adjusted cost and time targets
Project Risk Response Strategy examples for opportunities
and threats
 Threat avoidance
 Threat mitigation
 Contingency planning
 Opportunity acceptance
 Opportunity sharing
 Opportunity exploit
 Opportunity enhance
Case study – Identify effective risk management actions
for pipeline construction project
-Take the top 5 risks identified earlier
-Develop a list of primary and backup strategies to
effectively mitigate risk
Risk Monitoring and Control
 Risk reviews
 Audit of the Risk Management Processes
 Cycle through risk processes during the Project Life Cycle
Characteristics of a Mature Project Risk Management
Organization
 Discussion – is our company a risk mature organization?
What could be done to make it more mature?
 Summary of Risk Analysis and Management

6. 6
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Title : Project Risk Assessment & Management
Date : 1—4 March, 2016
Location : Bali, Indonesia
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