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Petrocapita Energy Update
January 2010




                    1
Summary




Barclays	Capital	recently	stated	“We expect 2010
to be a year of transition between the [oil] demand
concerns of 2009 and the supply concerns of 2011,
with geopolitical developments having a heightened
importance.” 		The	last	24	months	have	pushed	the	
question	of	oil	supply	out	of	the	limelight,	while	of	
course	the	underlying	issues	remain	unchanged	and	
perhaps	magnified	by	the	financial	crisis.		

At	the	heart	of	the	matter	is	the	fact	that	we	live	in	a	
peak	oil	world.		No	resource	is	infinite	and	conven-
tional	oil	supply	is	clearly	demonstrating	characteris-
tics	of	peaking	production.

A	recent	survey	paper	from	the	UKERC	found	that:
                                                            CONTENTS
–	 The	global	average	decline	rate	of	post-peak	            3	 How	does	US	Plan	to	Import	10	Million	
   fields	is	at	least	6.5%/year	and	the	corresponding	         BOPD	with	a	Devalued	Currency?
   decline	rate	of	all	currently	producing	fields	is	at	    3	 Peak	Oil	as	Predicted	by	the	IEA
   least	4%/year.	This	implies	that	approximately	3	
   mb/day	of	capacity	must	be	added	each	year	              3	 China	Oil	Demand	Thought	Experiment
   just	to	maintain	production	at	current	levels	–	         4	 Quick	Energy	Facts
   equivalent	to	a	new	Saudi	Arabia	coming	on-
   stream	every	3	years.	An	additional	1	mb/day	
   must	be	added	to	meet	demand	growth.	
–	 More	than	two	thirds	of	existing	capacity	must	
   be	replaced	by	2030	solely	to	prevent	production	
   from	falling.
–	 A	peak	in	conventional	oil	production	before	2030	
   appears	likely	and	there	is	a	significant	risk	of	a	
   peak	before	2020.		For	example,	a	2008	report	
   by	The	UK	Industry	Taskforce	on	Peak	Oil	and	
   Energy	Security	warned	that	a	“peak	in	cheap,	
   easily	available	oil	production”	was	likely	by	2013.




                                                                                             1
Summary (continued)




To	follow	on	the	peak	oil	pricing	model	contained	in	
the	last	Energy	Briefing,	we	have	produced	another	
model	which	attempts	to	calculate	the	effect	of	
the	transition	to	a	middle	class	standard	of	living	in	
China	will	have	on	the	global	energy	markets.		Once	
again,	the	purpose	of	this	exercise	was	not	to	make	
highly	accurate	predictions	but	rather	to	gain	some	
insight	into	the	potential	magnitude	of	changes	given	
fairly	conservative	production,	demand	and	decline	
assumptions.	

The	key	assumptions	are	that	China	moves	from	
its	current	energy	consumption	levels	(around	2.5	
barrel	per	capita	per	year)	to	levels	more	closely	
resembling	South	Korea	(17	barrels	per	capita	per	
year).		The	projection	period	we	used	was	30	years,	
which	is	longer	than	it	took	South	Korea	to	make	
this	transition.		The	effect	of	this	change	on	global	
demand	is	quite	dramatic.		It	would	be	necessary	
to	replace	26	million	BOPD	production	by	2020	to	
maintain	supply	(about	30%	of	current	production	
levels	and	almost	3	times	Saudi	Arabia	output).		Total	
daily	production	will	have	to	raise	22%	from	84	million	
BOPD	to	102	million	BOPD.		




                                                           2
Energy Update




HOW DOES US PLAN TO IMPORT 10 MILLION
BOPD WITH A DEVALUED CURRENCY?

The	US	currently	imports	over	10	million	bopd.		The	        a day will be difficult.” In	2008,	he	stated	“world oil
US	government	and	Fed	are	clearly	on	the	track	to	          production would peak at or below 95 million barrels
substantially	debasing	the	dollar.		The	US	has	no	          per day,” and	later	that	“world oil production may
credible	way	to	pay	the	on	and	off-balance	sheet	           plateau below 90 million barrels per day.”	
liabilities	that	it	has	accumulated	to	date	–	without	
even	beginning	to	pay	the	massive	future	liabilities	       As	the	IEA	has	been	warning	for	years,	given	current	
of	the	social	programs	for	boomers.			The	US	will	          tighter	supply/demand	balance	and	increasing	
default	on	its	debt	via	the	printing	press.	The	question	   decline	rates,	a	reduction	in	upstream	oil	investment	
then	becomes	how	its	manages	to	maintain	a	way	             inevitably	causes	an	oil	supply	problem	later.	IEA	
of	life	that	requires	the	import	of	10	million	bopd	        Director	Nobuo	Tanaka	stated	that	“Sustained
from	foreigners	who	may	not	be	in	a	mood	to	accept	         investment is needed mainly to combat the decline
worthless	US	fiat	in	exchange	or	at	the	very	least	the	     in output at existing fields, which will drop by almost
price	of	oil	in	USD	terms	will	be	astronomical.             2/3 by 2030.” Tanaka	recently	predicted	that	global	
                                                            upstream	spending	had	dropped	$90	billion,	or	19%,	
PEAK OIL AS PREDICTED BY THE IEA                            during	2009	vs.	2008—the	first	decline	in	a	decade.		
                                                            The	effects	of	a	capex	reduction	will	be	compounded	
In	2009	The Guardian	(UK)	published	a	story	about	2	        by	the	production	and	decline	limits	that	are	being	
whistleblowers	from	the	International	Energy	Agency	        seen	in	an	increasing	number	of	countries	worldwide.	
(“IEA”).		One	of	these	sources,	still	with	the	IEA,	said	
“The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could
                                                            CHINA OIL DEMAND THOUGHT EXPERIMENT
rise as high as 120 million barrels a day by 2030
although it was forced to reduce this gradually to          As	a	thought	experiment	we	modeled	the	effect	
116m and then 105m last year [2008]. The 120m               of	China	moving	from	its	current	energy	world	oil	
figure always was nonsense but even today’s number          consumption	levels	(around	2.5	barrel	per	capita	per	
is much higher than can be justified and the IEA            year)	to	levels	more	closely	resembling	South	Korea	
knows this. Many inside the organization believe that       (17	barrels	per	capita	per	year).		The	projection	period	
maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels         we	used	was	30	years,	which	is	longer	than	it	took	
a day would be impossible but there are fears that          South	Korea	to	make	this	transition.		The	effect	of	this	
panic could spread on the financial markets if the          change	of	global	demand	is	quite	startling.		Assuming	
figures were brought down further.”                         a	modest	level	of	decline	in	existing	global	production,	
	                                                           it	would	be	necessary	be	replace	26	million	BOPD	
Christophe	de	Margerie,	CEO	of	France’s	national	           production	to	maintain	supply	(about	30%	of	current	
oil	company	Total	SA	has	issued	a	number	of	                production	levels	and	3	times	Saudi	Arabia	output).		
predictions	about	world	oil	supply	constraints.	In	         Total	daily	production	will	have	to	raise	22%	from	84	
2007,	he	stated	“production of 100 million barrels          million	BOPD	to	102	million	BOPD.		



                                                                                                                      3
Energy Update (continued)




                            CHART 1: CAPACITY ADDITION NEEDED                                        QUICK ENERGY FACTS
                                         BY 2015                                                     Shale	Gas:		For	more	than	a	decade	the	US	
                                                                                                     Congress	has	exempted	the	oil	industry	from	a	
                          120                                             Natural	
                                     World	Oil	Demand           Fields	   Gas	         Yet	to	Find   federal	law	protecting	drinking	water.	In	particular	that	
Million	Barrels	per	Day




                                                                Under	    Liquids
                          110                                   Appraisal                            the	law	should	not	be	applied	to	hydraulic	fracturing,	
                                              Smaller	Fields/
                          100                 Upgrades                                               the	process	that	is	essential	to	extracting	the	US’	
                                                                                                     natural	gas	reserves	–	particularly	shale	gas.	In	2005	
                          90                                                                         Congress	passed	a	law	prohibiting	such	regulation.		
                          80
                                                                         Projects
                                                                         (>10,000bd)
                                                                                                     Now	the	US	Congress	is	revisiting	the	exemption	
                                                                                                     and	has	asked	the	EPA	to	undertake	a	review	of	
                          70    Existing	Production	Capacity
                                                                                                     how	hydraulic	fracturing	may	affect	drinking	water	
                                (6%	decline	per	annum)
                          60                                                                         supplies.		The	EPA	itself	has	expressed	“serious	
                                                                                                     reservations”	about	allowing	shale	gas	drilling	in	
                          50
                                2006																2008																		2010															2012    watersheds.		If	the	EPA	were	to	decide	to	remove	the	
Source:	Cambridge	Energy	Associates                                                                  hydraulic	fracturing	exemption	what	effect	will	it	have	
                                                                                                     on	shale	gas	drilling	and	the	current	abundant	North	
                                                                                                     American	natural	gas	supplies?	

Click Here for Link to the Login Page for the                                                        China’s	Oil	Consumption:		China	recently	surpassed	
China Oil Demand Calculator                                                                          the	Germany	and	Japan	in	terms	of	total	oil	
                                                                                                     consumption	and	now	buys	more	of	Saudi	Arabia’s	
                                                                                                     oil	exports	than	the	US.

                                                                                                     Barclays	Capital:	“We expect 2010 to be a year of
                                                                                                     transition between the [oil] demand concerns of 2009
                                                                                                     and the supply concerns of 2011, with geopolitical
                                                                                                     developments having a heightened importance.”




                                                                                                                                                             4
Petrocapita Macro Update
January 2010
Summary




DEMOGRAPHICS ARE DESTINY

The 19th century belonged to the UK, the 20th century belonged to
the US and it appears that the 21st century may belong to China.
A consistent theme in the emergence of a new global power is a
young population with a large and growing pool of domestic savings
and a focus on investing in the capital base of the economy rather
than consumption. The world’s western economies find themselves
heavily in debt with deteriorating demographics (our populations are
aging and our birth rates are low) and economies skewed towards
consumption. We are accruing ever-greater liabilities to cover vast
social, medical and retirement programs that we currently do not
have the workers or more importantly the high growth economies
to pay for. It has been said that “demographics are destiny’.
Unfortunately, rather than face these issues, our governments
are attempting to fix our manifest problems by accelerating the           CONTENTS
consumption friendly policies that were largely responsible for           M1 Demographics Are Destiny
getting us into this situation in the first place. As an example of       M3 Forty Percent of US Corporate
this, the US Federal funding gap is growing rapidly. Over the last six       Profits From Finance!
years:                                                                    M4 America’s Current Export –
                                                                             Inflation
–   unfunded obligations increased approximately 50% from US$79           M4 How Can this End Well?
    trillion to US$114.7 trillion; but                                    M4 ZIRP and Commodity Prices –
–   revenue rose approximately 12%.                                          Is There A Link?
                                                                          M5 Money Velocity Increasing
The US government is now in the position of increasing its liabilities    M6 Interest on US Debt
four times faster than its tax receipts. This is a trend being repeated   M6 US Residential Housing Sector
throughout the developed world. The US Federal Reserve recently              – Losses Now Nationalized?
disclosed that it purchased half of the newly issued US Treasuries        M7 Private Sector Growth is
in the second quarter of 2009 – all of which would have been                 Absent in the US
purchased with newly created money – direct debt monetization.            M7 US Bailout Cost
                                                                          M7 Equity and House Price
Investors must be alive to the growing divergence between the                Declines – Over?
economies of the west and those in the emerging world and                 M7 Government Fiscal Deficits Will
position themselves accordingly. We believe that the way to benefit          Continue to Worsen
from long-term Chinese growth is to invest in what China needs            M8 Top 10 Points for Canadian
in politically stable parts of the world. That gives you the best of         Limited Partnership Investors
                                                                          M9 Quick News Review



                                                                                                    M1
both options – first world political risk and transparency combined
with emerging world growth rates. Clearly a category that fits this
description is commodity investment in western Canada
–	 Agriculture
–	 Energy

And to a lesser degree commodity linked investment in western
Canada:
–	 Businesses that service the commodity sector
–	 Businesses and sectors that benefit from general population/
   economic growth in Western Canada




                                                                      M2
Global Macro Update




FORTY PERCENT OF US CORPORATE PROFITS
FROM FINANCE!

Given the rapid reflation of the prices of speculative     Despite widespread belief to the contrary,
assets and the collapse of risk premiums, the              government intervention into broad swathes of the
ongoing money printing efforts in the developed            economy to support “too big to fail” companies
world are having limited effect outside of the “finance    or more accurately to prevent capital destroying
economy”. It is estimated that up to 40% of US             business activity from being eliminated to the benefit
corporate profits are generated by the finance sector      of the entire economy is not a positive for future
– largely from speculative activities. Corporate profits   growth. There is an economic truism that whatever
attributable to the finance sector were effectively        you subsidize you get more of – hence by subsidizing
stable until the 1970s when the growth in the US           failure we are ensuring bigger failures in the future
money supply turned sharply higher on a sustained          and worst of all penalizing well run businesses. The
basis. Given the finance sector’s intimate relationship    firms that were prudently managed leading up to the
with the US Federal Government and the Federal             crisis should have benefited from the demise of their
Reserve banking system it is not surprising that the       poorly run competitors – in a free economy capital
newly printed money has flowed into and through            would have flowed to the profitable businesses rather
the finance sector acting as a wholesale subsidy           than the loss making ones. The fact that this didn’t
that drove corporate profits, compensation and             happen creates a perverse “if you can’t beat’em,
speculation.                                               join’em” mentality with respect to risky and imprudent
                                                           business practices.

QUICK FACTS

                          China                                                      US
                                                           GDP: $14.2 trillion - increased a total of 18% (real
 GDP: $4.3 trillion – increased a total of 430% in last
                                                           terms) in last 10 years and added ZERO private
 10 years
                                                           sector jobs
 20% percent of economy in state sector                    30% percent of economy in state sector
 Consumer demand is 35 per cent of GDP                     Consumer demand is 70 per cent of GDP
 Savings rate is 40 percent of household disposable        Savings rate is 6 percent of household disposable
 income (one of the highest in the world)                  income




                                                                                                                  M3
Global Macro Update (continued)




AMERICA’S CURRENT EXPORT – INFLATION
                                                                                                       CHART 2: CRB SPOT INDEX (1967 = 100)
The US zero-interest rate policy (“ZIRP”) has lead to
sustained efforts to cause currency devaluations on                                                                                                                                     550


the part of its trading partners. The idea is that if they                                                                                                                              500


weaken their currencies, domestic producers will be                                                                                                                                     450


able to maintain market share in the US. The net                                                                                                                                        400


result is that the US is effectively exporting inflation to                                                                                                                             350


its global trading partners.                                                                                                                                                            300

                                                                                                                                                                                        250

                                                                                                                                                                                        200
HOW CAN THIS END WELL?                                                                                                                                                                  150

                                                                                                                                                                                        100
Often a picture is worth a thousand words…
                                                                                                                                                                                        50
                                                                                                1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007


                          CHART 1: FEDERAL SURPLUS OR DEFICIT                                   Source: Commodity Research Bureau
                                     (USD$ BILLIONS)
                          400,000

                          200,000                                                                     CHART 3: 2009 CRB INDEX CONSTITUENT
                                0

                         -200,000
                                                                                                                    RETURNS
(Millions of Dollars)




                         -400,000
                                                                                                Wheat -11.46%
                         -600,000                                                                   Nat Gas -0.89%
                                                                                                                      Live Cattle 0.15%
                         -800,000
                                                                                                                      Corn 1.72%
                        -1,000,000                                                                                       Soybeans 6.97%
                                                                                                                         Lean Hogs 7.84%
                        -1,200,000                                                                                            Coffee 21%
                                                                                                                                Gold 22.91%
                        -1,400,000                                                                                              Cocoa 23.41%
                        -1,600,000                                                                                                       Aluminium 44.81%
                                 1895   1910   1925   1940   1955   1970   1985   2000   2015
                                                                                                                                           Silver 48.5%
                                                                                                                                            Heating Oil 50.73%
                                                                                                                                              Cotton 54.22%
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, White House – Office of                                                                                     Nickel 58.33%
                                                                                                                                                        Crude 77.94%
Management and Budget (shaded areas indicate recessions)                                                                                                     Orange Juice 88.25%
                                                                                                                                                                  RBOB 102%
                                                                                                                                                                             Sugar 128.19%
                                                                                                                                                                              Copper 138.38%
                                                                                                     -30          0           30           60           90          120           150

                                                                                                Source: Reuters
ZIRP AND COMMODITY PRICES – IS THERE A
LINK?

The CRB Index of 19 raw materials increased 23                                                  The rebound in commodity prices was lead by oil
percent in 2009 as can be seen in Chart 2 – this                                                copper and sugar (see Chart 3) as China’s demand
represents the largest annual increase since 1979 –                                             continued to grow even in the face of the global
the last period of highly inflationary monetary policy.                                         recession.



                                                                                                                                                                                      M4
Global Macro Update (continued)




Interestingly, the rebound in the CRB index is mirrored                                                           increasing after it started falling in the first quarter
by another powerful upward surge in US base money                                                                 of 2007 - six quarters before economic growth
supply (M0) after its initial doubling in late 2008, early                                                        slumped. The recent increase in MZM velocity may
2009.                                                                                                             point to increased economic activity, the question
                                                                                                                  then becomes whether it will be sustained as can be
MONEY VELOCITY INCREASING                                                                                         seen in the capacity utilization numbers.

For those who are adherents of the money velocity
theory of economic activity, the velocity of MZM is                                                                                    CHART 6: MZM VELOCITY (DARK BLUE)
                                                                                                                                        V. US GDP % GROWTH (LIGHT BLUE)

                                       CHART 4: US M0 (US$ BILLIONS)                                                             2.4                                                                                                      10.0%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  GDP Growth current terms
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          8.0%
                                                                                                                                 2.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          6.0%
                                                                                                                  MZM Velocity




                         2,400
                                                                                                                                 2.0                                                                                                      4.0%
                         2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2.0%
                         1,600                                                                                                   1.8
(Billions of Dollars)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          0.0%
                         1,200
                                                                                                                                 1.6                                                                                                      -2.0%
                             800
                                                                                                                                 1.4                                                                                                      -4.0%
                             400
                                                                                                                                       Jun-99

                                                                                                                                                Jun-00

                                                                                                                                                         Jun-01

                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-02

                                                                                                                                                                           Jun-03

                                                                                                                                                                                    Jun-04

                                                                                                                                                                                             Jun-05

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jun-06

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jun-07

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-08

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-09
                               0

                             -400
                                1910   1920    1930   1940   1950   1960    1970   1980     1990    2000   2010   Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve (shaded areas indicate
recessions)                                                                                                                                     CHART 7: ESTIMATED US INTEREST
                                                                                                                                                           PAYMENTS
          CHART 5: CAPACITY UTILIZATION (PERCENT OF
                          CAPACITY)                                                                               $800 in billions
                        90                                                                                        700

                        85
                                                                                                                  600
(Percent of Capacity)




                                                                                                                  500
                        80
                                                                                                                  400
                        75
                                                                                                                  300
                        70
                                                                                                                  200
                        65
                         1965      1970       1975    1980   1985    1990     1995        2000     2005    2010                                 2010                                                                                      2019
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve (shaded areas indicate                                                          Source: GAO
recessions)


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             M5
Global Macro Update (continued)




Further increases in this velocity are considered          Treasury department’s recent announcement that it
by many as an essential precursor for sustained            will provide unlimited backing to Freddie Mae and
economic growth.                                           Fannie Mac these two organizations now underwrite
                                                           almost 80% of all new mortgage lending in the US
INTEREST ON US DEBT                                        – de facto nationalizing of the market, a market that
                                                           represents:
More than half of the $9 trillion in debt the US Federal
government is expected to build up over the next           –  $14.6 trillion in total U.S. mortgage debt
decade will be incurred to pay interest charges -             outstanding
US$4.8 trillion.                                           –	 $8.9 trillion in total U.S. mortgage-related
                                                              securities.
In 2015 $533 billion in interest payments will be          –	 $7.5 trillion in pooled mortgages, of which about
equal to a third of the federal income taxes expected         $5 trillion is securitized or guaranteed by Freddie
to be paid that year – obviously a dangerous trend            Mae, Fannie Mac or FHA
given that longer term interest rates can be expected
increase from their currently historically low levels.     Charts 8 & 9 show that while most mortgage lenders
The other issue for the US is that the duration of         have been withdrawing from the US residential
its borrowing is rather short – in simple terms that       housing market, Freddie and Fannie loan books are
means the US federal government must constantly            exploding.
refinances its existing debt in addition to borrowing
more to fund ongoing deficits. The magnitude of this
issue is shown in that the US Treasury estimated
                                                                     CHART 8: REAL ESTATE LOAN AT COMMERCIAL
in November 2009 that “approximately 40 percent
                                                                                BANKS (US$ BILLIONS)
of the debt will need to be refinanced in less than
one year.” This shortened duration leaves the US                                   4,000
                                                                                   3,600
quickly exposed to any increases in borrowing costs                                3,200
demanded by the markets.
                                                           (Billions of Dollars)




                                                                                   2,800
                                                                                   2,400
                                                                                   2,000
                                                                                   1,600
US RESIDENTIAL HOUSING SECTOR – LOSSES                                             1,200
NOW NATIONALIZED?                                                                    800
                                                                                     400
                                                                                       0
The US automobile industry has been nationalized,                                   -400
the banking sector has been nationalized, medical                                      1940   1950   1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010

care has been nationalized and now the residential         Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve (shaded areas indicate
housing sector has been nationalized. With the             recessions)




                                                                                                                                        M6
Global Macro Update (continued)




                                                                                  EQUITY AND HOUSE PRICE DECLINES – OVER?
            CHART 9: TOTAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND
                 SALLIE MAE CONSUMER LOANS                                        Research (Aftermath of Financial Crisis, Reinhart and
                         (US$ BILLIONS)                                           Rogoff, 2008) shows that the average real decline
                                                                                  in equity and house prices following a banking
                        200
                        180
                                                                                  crisis is 56% and 35% over 3.4 years and 6 years
(Billions of Dollars)




                        160                                                       respectively. If this historical average holds, and
                        140
                        120                                                       arguably the current crisis far exceeds virtually all the
                        100
                         80
                                                                                  others over the past 100 years, then both house and
                         60                                                       equity prices will fall much farther in real terms.
                         40
                         20
                          0
                        -20                                                       GOVERNMENT FISCAL DEFICITS WILL
                          1975   1980   1985   1990   1995   2000   2005   2010
                                                                                  CONTINUE TO WORSEN
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve (shaded areas indicate
recessions)                                                                       Research shows that even with the current dramatic
                                                                                  deterioration in G7 government finances we can
                                                                                  expect worse to come (Aftermath of Financial Crisis,
PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH IS ABSENT IN THE US                                         Reinhart and Rogoff, 2008). Over the course of the
                                                                                  typical banking crisis government debt levels rise an
Private sector has actually shed jobs in the
last decade and generated very little in inflation
adjusted GDP growth – hence the nagging feeling                                           CHART 10: US JOB GROWTH BY DECADE
in the middle class that they are not getting ahead.
Unfortunately the same cannot be said for the US                                                                                          % change in
                                                                                                                                       gross domestic
                                                                                                                                                            % change in
                                                                                                                                                           household net

government that continues to grow relentlessly.                                                                                             product
                                                                                                                                          By decade,
                                                                                                                                                                worth
                                                                                                                                                             By decade,
                                                                                                                                38%   inflation adjusted inflation adjusted

                                                                                                                                      1940s    72.0% unavailable

US BAILOUT COST                                                                                                                       1960s    53.1% 44%
                                                                                                                                      1970s    38.1% 28%

Despite the varied and often conflicting reports                                                                                      1950s
                                                                                                                                      1980s
                                                                                                                                               51.3% unavailable
                                                                                                                                               34.9% 42%
about the total cost of the US bailouts – when all                                                                                    1990s    38.6% 58%
the programs are taken into account the cost is
approximately US$14 trillion. Given the pre-bailout                                                                             0%
money supply of the US was around US$ 15 trillion                                 0                                                   2000s 17.8%         -4%
                                                                                                     Year in Decade
this represents a truly staggering amount of money.                                   1    2   3   4    5      6    7   8   9   10

                                                                                  Source: Washington Post




                                                                                                                                                                    M7
Global Macro Update (continued)




average of 86 percent in the three years following.            produce a superior performance unless you do
The buildup in government debt has been a defining             something different from the majority...”
characteristic of the aftermath of banking crises for     3.   Tax efficient structure – Tax can have a major
over a century. The question that will inevitably              effect on your returns. Make sure that all
arise is that if investment demand is not present              reasonable and credible steps have been
for the huge debt issuances that this will entail, will        taken by the management team to manage tax
the worlds central banks revert to monetizing their            obligations.
governments’ debts – or in simple terms printing the      4.   Audited financial statements – Management must
money.                                                         provide annual audited financial statements. A
                                                               past failure to do so should act as a red flag.
TOP 10 POINTS FOR CANADIAN LIMITED                        5.   Regular operational reporting – Management
PARTNERSHIP INVESTORS                                          must be open and available to answer your
                                                               questions about the business.
Investors in private limited partnerships are faced       6.   Clearly defined hold period – Make sure that
with a wide range of offerings – from classic private          the hold period is clearly defined and cannot
equity vehicles to real estate development projects.           be arbitrarily changed or extended by the
Here are some simple criteria to help you make your            management team. You need to know how long
decisions about what private LPs to consider for their         your investment will be committed and exactly
RRSP portfolio this year.                                      when you can expect repayment.
                                                          7.   No non-arms length transactions – Situation
1. Experienced management team – A significant                 where the management team acquires the target
   number of investment teams have NO experience               assets first and then sells them to the fund for
   in fund management or even in the sector in                 an upfront profit. Even if disclosed in the offering
   which they are investing your capital. Work                 documents this is a poor practice and creates
   with teams that have a track record at both                 a mismatch between the economic interests of
   the investment management level and at the                  the management team and the interests of the
   operational level – there is NO substitute for              investors.
   a track record of successful investment and            8.   No acquisition fees - Fees where the
   operation in the business area by the team you              management team gets paid a portion of all
   are trusting to act on your behalf.                         capital deployed. This creates a mismatch
2. Clear investment premise – The investment                   between the economic interests of the
   premise should be based on sound fundamental                management team and the interests of the
   analysis that is simple to understand and clearly           investors, as acquisition fees are not tied to
   laid out in the presentation. Avoid momentum-               returns.
   based investments where the core rationale is          9.   No fee escalation – Management fees should not
   effectively that “everyone else is doing it”. To            be tied to appraised or calculated asset value that
   quote Sir John Templeton - “It is impossible to             is an unrealized gain. The only valuations that
                                                               matter are the purchase price and the sale price.


                                                                                                                M8
Global Macro Update (continued)




    Management should receive the bulk of their          standing in the tropical sun outside a popular
    fees based on gains that are actually realized for   store. The government acknowledges prices will
    investors.                                           rise after the devaluation, but say the upward trend
10. Incentives reward ACHEIVED performance –             will be more gradual. State run television and radio
    Favor investments where the manager makes            stations avoided using the word “devaluation,”
    the bulk of his return only when you make a          preferring the word “adjustment.” One pro-Chavez
    return. This fee structure is commonly referred      radio station responded to critics of the measure by
    to as “success based”. Lifts, acquisition fees,      playing a popular Argentine song called “Imbecile.”
    escalating annual management fees are not            With oil crowding out other sectors of the economy,
    success based.                                       Venezuela heavily relies on imports for consumer
                                                         goods, leaving it subject to big price swings
QUICK NEWS REVIEW                                        depending on the exchange rate. Older Venezuelans
                                                         are accustomed to sharp losses in the value of their
Venezuela Devalues: “Shouting “buy, buy, the world       money, with numerous devaluations and currency
is going to die,” Venezuelans went on a frantic          regimes over the last three decades of economic
shopping spree on Saturday following a sharp             turmoil. Inflation, the highest in the Americas, at
currency devaluation that is expected to drive up        25 percent last year, reached 103 percent in 1996
prices. President Hugo Chavez announced a dual           after a previous president lifted exchange and price
system for the fixed rate Bolivar Friday night while     controls. Chavez’s high-spending policies during an
much of the country was watching a baseball game.        oil bonanza fueled a massive consumer boom and
“I’ve been lining up for two hours outside to buy a      fast growth that shuddered to a halt when oil prices
television and two speakers because by Monday            plunged a year ago. The sharp drop in oil revenues
everything is bound to be double the current price,”     also undermined the Bolivar and made a devaluation
said Miguel Gonzalez, a 56-year-old engineer             inevitable at some point.” Source: Reuters Jan 2010




                                                                                                           M9
DISCLAIMER:

                                  The	information,	opinions,	estimates,	projections	and	other	materials	
                                  contained	herein	are	provided	as	of	the	date	hereof	and	are	subject	to	
                                  change	without	notice.	Some	of	the	information,	opinions,	estimates,	
                                  projections	and	other	materials	contained	herein	have	been	obtained	from	
                                  numerous	sources	and	Petrocapita	Income	Trust	(“PETROCAPITA”)	and	
                                  its	affiliates	make	every	effort	to	ensure	that	the	contents	hereof	have	been	
                                  compiled	or	derived	from	sources	believed	to	be	reliable	and	to	contain	
                                  information	and	opinions	which	are	accurate	and	complete.	However,	neither	
                                  PETROCAPITA	nor	its	affiliates	have	independently	verified	or	make	any	
                                  representation	or	warranty,	express	or	implied,	in	respect	thereof,	take	no	
                                  responsibility	for	any	errors	and	omissions	which	maybe	contained	herein	or	
                                  accept	any	liability	whatsoever	for	any	loss	arising	from	any	use	of	or	reliance	
                                  on	the	information,	opinions,	estimates,	projections	and	other	materials	
                                  contained	herein	whether	relied	upon	by	the	recipient	or	user	or	any	other	
                                  third	party	(including,	without	limitation,	any	customer	of	the	recipient	or	
                                  user).	Information	may	be	available	to	PETROCAPITA	and/or	its	affiliates	that	
                                  is	not	reflected	herein.	The	information,	opinions,	estimates,	projections	and	
                                  other	materials	contained	herein	are	not	to	be	construed	as	an	offer	to	sell,	a	
                                  solicitation	for	or	an	offer	to	buy,	any	products	or	services	referenced	herein	
                                  (including,	without	limitation,	any	commodities,	securities	or	other	financial	
                                  instruments),	nor	shall	such	information,	opinions,	estimates,	projections	and	
                                  other	materials	be	considered	as	investment	advice	or	as	a	recommendation	
                                  to	enter	into	any	transaction.	Additional	information	is	available	by	contacting	
                                  PETROCAPITA	or	its	relevant	affiliate	directly.




#400, 2424 4th Street SW   Tel: +1.403.218.6506            www.petrocapita.com
Calgary, Alberta T2S 2T4   Fax: +1.403.266.1541
Canada

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Petrocapita Jan 2010 Energy & Macro Briefing

  • 2. Summary Barclays Capital recently stated “We expect 2010 to be a year of transition between the [oil] demand concerns of 2009 and the supply concerns of 2011, with geopolitical developments having a heightened importance.” The last 24 months have pushed the question of oil supply out of the limelight, while of course the underlying issues remain unchanged and perhaps magnified by the financial crisis. At the heart of the matter is the fact that we live in a peak oil world. No resource is infinite and conven- tional oil supply is clearly demonstrating characteris- tics of peaking production. A recent survey paper from the UKERC found that: CONTENTS – The global average decline rate of post-peak 3 How does US Plan to Import 10 Million fields is at least 6.5%/year and the corresponding BOPD with a Devalued Currency? decline rate of all currently producing fields is at 3 Peak Oil as Predicted by the IEA least 4%/year. This implies that approximately 3 mb/day of capacity must be added each year 3 China Oil Demand Thought Experiment just to maintain production at current levels – 4 Quick Energy Facts equivalent to a new Saudi Arabia coming on- stream every 3 years. An additional 1 mb/day must be added to meet demand growth. – More than two thirds of existing capacity must be replaced by 2030 solely to prevent production from falling. – A peak in conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020. For example, a 2008 report by The UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security warned that a “peak in cheap, easily available oil production” was likely by 2013. 1
  • 3. Summary (continued) To follow on the peak oil pricing model contained in the last Energy Briefing, we have produced another model which attempts to calculate the effect of the transition to a middle class standard of living in China will have on the global energy markets. Once again, the purpose of this exercise was not to make highly accurate predictions but rather to gain some insight into the potential magnitude of changes given fairly conservative production, demand and decline assumptions. The key assumptions are that China moves from its current energy consumption levels (around 2.5 barrel per capita per year) to levels more closely resembling South Korea (17 barrels per capita per year). The projection period we used was 30 years, which is longer than it took South Korea to make this transition. The effect of this change on global demand is quite dramatic. It would be necessary to replace 26 million BOPD production by 2020 to maintain supply (about 30% of current production levels and almost 3 times Saudi Arabia output). Total daily production will have to raise 22% from 84 million BOPD to 102 million BOPD. 2
  • 4. Energy Update HOW DOES US PLAN TO IMPORT 10 MILLION BOPD WITH A DEVALUED CURRENCY? The US currently imports over 10 million bopd. The a day will be difficult.” In 2008, he stated “world oil US government and Fed are clearly on the track to production would peak at or below 95 million barrels substantially debasing the dollar. The US has no per day,” and later that “world oil production may credible way to pay the on and off-balance sheet plateau below 90 million barrels per day.” liabilities that it has accumulated to date – without even beginning to pay the massive future liabilities As the IEA has been warning for years, given current of the social programs for boomers. The US will tighter supply/demand balance and increasing default on its debt via the printing press. The question decline rates, a reduction in upstream oil investment then becomes how its manages to maintain a way inevitably causes an oil supply problem later. IEA of life that requires the import of 10 million bopd Director Nobuo Tanaka stated that “Sustained from foreigners who may not be in a mood to accept investment is needed mainly to combat the decline worthless US fiat in exchange or at the very least the in output at existing fields, which will drop by almost price of oil in USD terms will be astronomical. 2/3 by 2030.” Tanaka recently predicted that global upstream spending had dropped $90 billion, or 19%, PEAK OIL AS PREDICTED BY THE IEA during 2009 vs. 2008—the first decline in a decade. The effects of a capex reduction will be compounded In 2009 The Guardian (UK) published a story about 2 by the production and decline limits that are being whistleblowers from the International Energy Agency seen in an increasing number of countries worldwide. (“IEA”). One of these sources, still with the IEA, said “The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could CHINA OIL DEMAND THOUGHT EXPERIMENT rise as high as 120 million barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to As a thought experiment we modeled the effect 116m and then 105m last year [2008]. The 120m of China moving from its current energy world oil figure always was nonsense but even today’s number consumption levels (around 2.5 barrel per capita per is much higher than can be justified and the IEA year) to levels more closely resembling South Korea knows this. Many inside the organization believe that (17 barrels per capita per year). The projection period maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels we used was 30 years, which is longer than it took a day would be impossible but there are fears that South Korea to make this transition. The effect of this panic could spread on the financial markets if the change of global demand is quite startling. Assuming figures were brought down further.” a modest level of decline in existing global production, it would be necessary be replace 26 million BOPD Christophe de Margerie, CEO of France’s national production to maintain supply (about 30% of current oil company Total SA has issued a number of production levels and 3 times Saudi Arabia output). predictions about world oil supply constraints. In Total daily production will have to raise 22% from 84 2007, he stated “production of 100 million barrels million BOPD to 102 million BOPD. 3
  • 5. Energy Update (continued) CHART 1: CAPACITY ADDITION NEEDED QUICK ENERGY FACTS BY 2015 Shale Gas: For more than a decade the US Congress has exempted the oil industry from a 120 Natural World Oil Demand Fields Gas Yet to Find federal law protecting drinking water. In particular that Million Barrels per Day Under Liquids 110 Appraisal the law should not be applied to hydraulic fracturing, Smaller Fields/ 100 Upgrades the process that is essential to extracting the US’ natural gas reserves – particularly shale gas. In 2005 90 Congress passed a law prohibiting such regulation. 80 Projects (>10,000bd) Now the US Congress is revisiting the exemption and has asked the EPA to undertake a review of 70 Existing Production Capacity how hydraulic fracturing may affect drinking water (6% decline per annum) 60 supplies. The EPA itself has expressed “serious reservations” about allowing shale gas drilling in 50 2006 2008 2010 2012 watersheds. If the EPA were to decide to remove the Source: Cambridge Energy Associates hydraulic fracturing exemption what effect will it have on shale gas drilling and the current abundant North American natural gas supplies? Click Here for Link to the Login Page for the China’s Oil Consumption: China recently surpassed China Oil Demand Calculator the Germany and Japan in terms of total oil consumption and now buys more of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports than the US. Barclays Capital: “We expect 2010 to be a year of transition between the [oil] demand concerns of 2009 and the supply concerns of 2011, with geopolitical developments having a heightened importance.” 4
  • 7. Summary DEMOGRAPHICS ARE DESTINY The 19th century belonged to the UK, the 20th century belonged to the US and it appears that the 21st century may belong to China. A consistent theme in the emergence of a new global power is a young population with a large and growing pool of domestic savings and a focus on investing in the capital base of the economy rather than consumption. The world’s western economies find themselves heavily in debt with deteriorating demographics (our populations are aging and our birth rates are low) and economies skewed towards consumption. We are accruing ever-greater liabilities to cover vast social, medical and retirement programs that we currently do not have the workers or more importantly the high growth economies to pay for. It has been said that “demographics are destiny’. Unfortunately, rather than face these issues, our governments are attempting to fix our manifest problems by accelerating the CONTENTS consumption friendly policies that were largely responsible for M1 Demographics Are Destiny getting us into this situation in the first place. As an example of M3 Forty Percent of US Corporate this, the US Federal funding gap is growing rapidly. Over the last six Profits From Finance! years: M4 America’s Current Export – Inflation – unfunded obligations increased approximately 50% from US$79 M4 How Can this End Well? trillion to US$114.7 trillion; but M4 ZIRP and Commodity Prices – – revenue rose approximately 12%. Is There A Link? M5 Money Velocity Increasing The US government is now in the position of increasing its liabilities M6 Interest on US Debt four times faster than its tax receipts. This is a trend being repeated M6 US Residential Housing Sector throughout the developed world. The US Federal Reserve recently – Losses Now Nationalized? disclosed that it purchased half of the newly issued US Treasuries M7 Private Sector Growth is in the second quarter of 2009 – all of which would have been Absent in the US purchased with newly created money – direct debt monetization. M7 US Bailout Cost M7 Equity and House Price Investors must be alive to the growing divergence between the Declines – Over? economies of the west and those in the emerging world and M7 Government Fiscal Deficits Will position themselves accordingly. We believe that the way to benefit Continue to Worsen from long-term Chinese growth is to invest in what China needs M8 Top 10 Points for Canadian in politically stable parts of the world. That gives you the best of Limited Partnership Investors M9 Quick News Review M1
  • 8. both options – first world political risk and transparency combined with emerging world growth rates. Clearly a category that fits this description is commodity investment in western Canada – Agriculture – Energy And to a lesser degree commodity linked investment in western Canada: – Businesses that service the commodity sector – Businesses and sectors that benefit from general population/ economic growth in Western Canada M2
  • 9. Global Macro Update FORTY PERCENT OF US CORPORATE PROFITS FROM FINANCE! Given the rapid reflation of the prices of speculative Despite widespread belief to the contrary, assets and the collapse of risk premiums, the government intervention into broad swathes of the ongoing money printing efforts in the developed economy to support “too big to fail” companies world are having limited effect outside of the “finance or more accurately to prevent capital destroying economy”. It is estimated that up to 40% of US business activity from being eliminated to the benefit corporate profits are generated by the finance sector of the entire economy is not a positive for future – largely from speculative activities. Corporate profits growth. There is an economic truism that whatever attributable to the finance sector were effectively you subsidize you get more of – hence by subsidizing stable until the 1970s when the growth in the US failure we are ensuring bigger failures in the future money supply turned sharply higher on a sustained and worst of all penalizing well run businesses. The basis. Given the finance sector’s intimate relationship firms that were prudently managed leading up to the with the US Federal Government and the Federal crisis should have benefited from the demise of their Reserve banking system it is not surprising that the poorly run competitors – in a free economy capital newly printed money has flowed into and through would have flowed to the profitable businesses rather the finance sector acting as a wholesale subsidy than the loss making ones. The fact that this didn’t that drove corporate profits, compensation and happen creates a perverse “if you can’t beat’em, speculation. join’em” mentality with respect to risky and imprudent business practices. QUICK FACTS China US GDP: $14.2 trillion - increased a total of 18% (real GDP: $4.3 trillion – increased a total of 430% in last terms) in last 10 years and added ZERO private 10 years sector jobs 20% percent of economy in state sector 30% percent of economy in state sector Consumer demand is 35 per cent of GDP Consumer demand is 70 per cent of GDP Savings rate is 40 percent of household disposable Savings rate is 6 percent of household disposable income (one of the highest in the world) income M3
  • 10. Global Macro Update (continued) AMERICA’S CURRENT EXPORT – INFLATION CHART 2: CRB SPOT INDEX (1967 = 100) The US zero-interest rate policy (“ZIRP”) has lead to sustained efforts to cause currency devaluations on 550 the part of its trading partners. The idea is that if they 500 weaken their currencies, domestic producers will be 450 able to maintain market share in the US. The net 400 result is that the US is effectively exporting inflation to 350 its global trading partners. 300 250 200 HOW CAN THIS END WELL? 150 100 Often a picture is worth a thousand words… 50 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 CHART 1: FEDERAL SURPLUS OR DEFICIT Source: Commodity Research Bureau (USD$ BILLIONS) 400,000 200,000 CHART 3: 2009 CRB INDEX CONSTITUENT 0 -200,000 RETURNS (Millions of Dollars) -400,000 Wheat -11.46% -600,000 Nat Gas -0.89% Live Cattle 0.15% -800,000 Corn 1.72% -1,000,000 Soybeans 6.97% Lean Hogs 7.84% -1,200,000 Coffee 21% Gold 22.91% -1,400,000 Cocoa 23.41% -1,600,000 Aluminium 44.81% 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000 2015 Silver 48.5% Heating Oil 50.73% Cotton 54.22% Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, White House – Office of Nickel 58.33% Crude 77.94% Management and Budget (shaded areas indicate recessions) Orange Juice 88.25% RBOB 102% Sugar 128.19% Copper 138.38% -30 0 30 60 90 120 150 Source: Reuters ZIRP AND COMMODITY PRICES – IS THERE A LINK? The CRB Index of 19 raw materials increased 23 The rebound in commodity prices was lead by oil percent in 2009 as can be seen in Chart 2 – this copper and sugar (see Chart 3) as China’s demand represents the largest annual increase since 1979 – continued to grow even in the face of the global the last period of highly inflationary monetary policy. recession. M4
  • 11. Global Macro Update (continued) Interestingly, the rebound in the CRB index is mirrored increasing after it started falling in the first quarter by another powerful upward surge in US base money of 2007 - six quarters before economic growth supply (M0) after its initial doubling in late 2008, early slumped. The recent increase in MZM velocity may 2009. point to increased economic activity, the question then becomes whether it will be sustained as can be MONEY VELOCITY INCREASING seen in the capacity utilization numbers. For those who are adherents of the money velocity theory of economic activity, the velocity of MZM is CHART 6: MZM VELOCITY (DARK BLUE) V. US GDP % GROWTH (LIGHT BLUE) CHART 4: US M0 (US$ BILLIONS) 2.4 10.0% GDP Growth current terms 8.0% 2.2 6.0% MZM Velocity 2,400 2.0 4.0% 2,000 2.0% 1,600 1.8 (Billions of Dollars) 0.0% 1,200 1.6 -2.0% 800 1.4 -4.0% 400 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 0 -400 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve (shaded areas indicate recessions) CHART 7: ESTIMATED US INTEREST PAYMENTS CHART 5: CAPACITY UTILIZATION (PERCENT OF CAPACITY) $800 in billions 90 700 85 600 (Percent of Capacity) 500 80 400 75 300 70 200 65 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2010 2019 Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve (shaded areas indicate Source: GAO recessions) M5
  • 12. Global Macro Update (continued) Further increases in this velocity are considered Treasury department’s recent announcement that it by many as an essential precursor for sustained will provide unlimited backing to Freddie Mae and economic growth. Fannie Mac these two organizations now underwrite almost 80% of all new mortgage lending in the US INTEREST ON US DEBT – de facto nationalizing of the market, a market that represents: More than half of the $9 trillion in debt the US Federal government is expected to build up over the next – $14.6 trillion in total U.S. mortgage debt decade will be incurred to pay interest charges - outstanding US$4.8 trillion. – $8.9 trillion in total U.S. mortgage-related securities. In 2015 $533 billion in interest payments will be – $7.5 trillion in pooled mortgages, of which about equal to a third of the federal income taxes expected $5 trillion is securitized or guaranteed by Freddie to be paid that year – obviously a dangerous trend Mae, Fannie Mac or FHA given that longer term interest rates can be expected increase from their currently historically low levels. Charts 8 & 9 show that while most mortgage lenders The other issue for the US is that the duration of have been withdrawing from the US residential its borrowing is rather short – in simple terms that housing market, Freddie and Fannie loan books are means the US federal government must constantly exploding. refinances its existing debt in addition to borrowing more to fund ongoing deficits. The magnitude of this issue is shown in that the US Treasury estimated CHART 8: REAL ESTATE LOAN AT COMMERCIAL in November 2009 that “approximately 40 percent BANKS (US$ BILLIONS) of the debt will need to be refinanced in less than one year.” This shortened duration leaves the US 4,000 3,600 quickly exposed to any increases in borrowing costs 3,200 demanded by the markets. (Billions of Dollars) 2,800 2,400 2,000 1,600 US RESIDENTIAL HOUSING SECTOR – LOSSES 1,200 NOW NATIONALIZED? 800 400 0 The US automobile industry has been nationalized, -400 the banking sector has been nationalized, medical 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 care has been nationalized and now the residential Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve (shaded areas indicate housing sector has been nationalized. With the recessions) M6
  • 13. Global Macro Update (continued) EQUITY AND HOUSE PRICE DECLINES – OVER? CHART 9: TOTAL FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AND SALLIE MAE CONSUMER LOANS Research (Aftermath of Financial Crisis, Reinhart and (US$ BILLIONS) Rogoff, 2008) shows that the average real decline in equity and house prices following a banking 200 180 crisis is 56% and 35% over 3.4 years and 6 years (Billions of Dollars) 160 respectively. If this historical average holds, and 140 120 arguably the current crisis far exceeds virtually all the 100 80 others over the past 100 years, then both house and 60 equity prices will fall much farther in real terms. 40 20 0 -20 GOVERNMENT FISCAL DEFICITS WILL 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 CONTINUE TO WORSEN Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve (shaded areas indicate recessions) Research shows that even with the current dramatic deterioration in G7 government finances we can expect worse to come (Aftermath of Financial Crisis, PRIVATE SECTOR GROWTH IS ABSENT IN THE US Reinhart and Rogoff, 2008). Over the course of the typical banking crisis government debt levels rise an Private sector has actually shed jobs in the last decade and generated very little in inflation adjusted GDP growth – hence the nagging feeling CHART 10: US JOB GROWTH BY DECADE in the middle class that they are not getting ahead. Unfortunately the same cannot be said for the US % change in gross domestic % change in household net government that continues to grow relentlessly. product By decade, worth By decade, 38% inflation adjusted inflation adjusted 1940s 72.0% unavailable US BAILOUT COST 1960s 53.1% 44% 1970s 38.1% 28% Despite the varied and often conflicting reports 1950s 1980s 51.3% unavailable 34.9% 42% about the total cost of the US bailouts – when all 1990s 38.6% 58% the programs are taken into account the cost is approximately US$14 trillion. Given the pre-bailout 0% money supply of the US was around US$ 15 trillion 0 2000s 17.8% -4% Year in Decade this represents a truly staggering amount of money. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Source: Washington Post M7
  • 14. Global Macro Update (continued) average of 86 percent in the three years following. produce a superior performance unless you do The buildup in government debt has been a defining something different from the majority...” characteristic of the aftermath of banking crises for 3. Tax efficient structure – Tax can have a major over a century. The question that will inevitably effect on your returns. Make sure that all arise is that if investment demand is not present reasonable and credible steps have been for the huge debt issuances that this will entail, will taken by the management team to manage tax the worlds central banks revert to monetizing their obligations. governments’ debts – or in simple terms printing the 4. Audited financial statements – Management must money. provide annual audited financial statements. A past failure to do so should act as a red flag. TOP 10 POINTS FOR CANADIAN LIMITED 5. Regular operational reporting – Management PARTNERSHIP INVESTORS must be open and available to answer your questions about the business. Investors in private limited partnerships are faced 6. Clearly defined hold period – Make sure that with a wide range of offerings – from classic private the hold period is clearly defined and cannot equity vehicles to real estate development projects. be arbitrarily changed or extended by the Here are some simple criteria to help you make your management team. You need to know how long decisions about what private LPs to consider for their your investment will be committed and exactly RRSP portfolio this year. when you can expect repayment. 7. No non-arms length transactions – Situation 1. Experienced management team – A significant where the management team acquires the target number of investment teams have NO experience assets first and then sells them to the fund for in fund management or even in the sector in an upfront profit. Even if disclosed in the offering which they are investing your capital. Work documents this is a poor practice and creates with teams that have a track record at both a mismatch between the economic interests of the investment management level and at the the management team and the interests of the operational level – there is NO substitute for investors. a track record of successful investment and 8. No acquisition fees - Fees where the operation in the business area by the team you management team gets paid a portion of all are trusting to act on your behalf. capital deployed. This creates a mismatch 2. Clear investment premise – The investment between the economic interests of the premise should be based on sound fundamental management team and the interests of the analysis that is simple to understand and clearly investors, as acquisition fees are not tied to laid out in the presentation. Avoid momentum- returns. based investments where the core rationale is 9. No fee escalation – Management fees should not effectively that “everyone else is doing it”. To be tied to appraised or calculated asset value that quote Sir John Templeton - “It is impossible to is an unrealized gain. The only valuations that matter are the purchase price and the sale price. M8
  • 15. Global Macro Update (continued) Management should receive the bulk of their standing in the tropical sun outside a popular fees based on gains that are actually realized for store. The government acknowledges prices will investors. rise after the devaluation, but say the upward trend 10. Incentives reward ACHEIVED performance – will be more gradual. State run television and radio Favor investments where the manager makes stations avoided using the word “devaluation,” the bulk of his return only when you make a preferring the word “adjustment.” One pro-Chavez return. This fee structure is commonly referred radio station responded to critics of the measure by to as “success based”. Lifts, acquisition fees, playing a popular Argentine song called “Imbecile.” escalating annual management fees are not With oil crowding out other sectors of the economy, success based. Venezuela heavily relies on imports for consumer goods, leaving it subject to big price swings QUICK NEWS REVIEW depending on the exchange rate. Older Venezuelans are accustomed to sharp losses in the value of their Venezuela Devalues: “Shouting “buy, buy, the world money, with numerous devaluations and currency is going to die,” Venezuelans went on a frantic regimes over the last three decades of economic shopping spree on Saturday following a sharp turmoil. Inflation, the highest in the Americas, at currency devaluation that is expected to drive up 25 percent last year, reached 103 percent in 1996 prices. President Hugo Chavez announced a dual after a previous president lifted exchange and price system for the fixed rate Bolivar Friday night while controls. Chavez’s high-spending policies during an much of the country was watching a baseball game. oil bonanza fueled a massive consumer boom and “I’ve been lining up for two hours outside to buy a fast growth that shuddered to a halt when oil prices television and two speakers because by Monday plunged a year ago. The sharp drop in oil revenues everything is bound to be double the current price,” also undermined the Bolivar and made a devaluation said Miguel Gonzalez, a 56-year-old engineer inevitable at some point.” Source: Reuters Jan 2010 M9
  • 16. DISCLAIMER: The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are provided as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. Some of the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein have been obtained from numerous sources and Petrocapita Income Trust (“PETROCAPITA”) and its affiliates make every effort to ensure that the contents hereof have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and to contain information and opinions which are accurate and complete. However, neither PETROCAPITA nor its affiliates have independently verified or make any representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, take no responsibility for any errors and omissions which maybe contained herein or accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein whether relied upon by the recipient or user or any other third party (including, without limitation, any customer of the recipient or user). Information may be available to PETROCAPITA and/or its affiliates that is not reflected herein. The information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials contained herein are not to be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation for or an offer to buy, any products or services referenced herein (including, without limitation, any commodities, securities or other financial instruments), nor shall such information, opinions, estimates, projections and other materials be considered as investment advice or as a recommendation to enter into any transaction. Additional information is available by contacting PETROCAPITA or its relevant affiliate directly. #400, 2424 4th Street SW Tel: +1.403.218.6506 www.petrocapita.com Calgary, Alberta T2S 2T4 Fax: +1.403.266.1541 Canada