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The future of work
10 facts about jobs in the future
Lee Rainie - @lrainie
Director Internet and Technology Research at PRC
IMF- World Bank Youth Dialogue on the future of work
Oct. 10, 2017
October 10, 2017
1) The nature of jobs is changing as the knowledge economy
rises
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/
October 10, 2017
1) The nature of jobs is changing as the knowledge economy
rises
50%
83
77
18
All occupations
Occupations requiring
higher levels of ...
Analytical skills
Physical skills
Social skills
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/
% change in employment, 1980-2015
October 10, 2017 4
2) Since 1990, employment growth most rapid in education and
health services
105
99
81
63
39
32
30
23
Educational services
Health care and social
assistance
Professional and
business services
Leisure and hospitality
Transportation and
warehousing
Other services
All
Financial activities
% change in industry employment, 1990-2015
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/
32
30
23
22
20
19
12
7
2
-25
-30
warehousing
Other services
All
Financial activities
Construction
Government
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Mining and logging
Information
Utilities
Manufacturing
October 10, 2017
% change in industry employment, 1990-2015
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/
3) Automation, robots, artificial intelligence are taking over
workers’ traditional tasks
47%
Oxford researchers calculate
this is the percentage of
American employment that
is at risk because of the
expected impacts of
computerization in the
foreseeable future
50%
McKinsey analysts estimate
this is the share of activities
workers are paid to do now that
could be automated using
currently available technologies
– accounting for $15 trillion in
wages
October 10, 2017 6
http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/digital-disruption/harnessing-automation-for-a-future-that-works
3) Automation, robots, artificial intelligence are taking over
workers’ traditional tasks
October 10, 2017
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf
45 years
The timeframe estimated by artificial intelligence experts
when “high level machine intelligence” – unaided machines
that can accomplish any given task better and more
cheaply than humans – will be developed
- 2024: outperform language translators
- 2027: drive a truck
- 2031 : work in retail
- 2049: write best selling book
- 2053: work as a surgeon
October 10, 2017
4) People think many professions at risk – but not their own jobs
% of U.S. adults who think it is ___ likely that the following jobs will be replaced by robots or computers in their lifetimes
http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/
5) People express more worry than optimism about future
automation
October 10, 2017 http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/
October 10, 2017
6) Workers express more positive than negative views on overall
impact of technology on their careers
http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/
% of U.S. workers who say the following
7) Workers with higher levels of education more likely to say tech
has increased opportunities, made jobs more interesting
October 10, 2017
64
5354
51
38
32
Made their work more
interesting
Increased their opportunities
for advancement
College grad+ Some college HS grad or less
http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/
40
35
37
33
22
23
10
10
45
49
48
49
47
41
27
25
12
12
13
16
26
26
40
43
Extremely
important
Having a detailed understanding of
how to use computer technology
Being able to work with people from
many different backgrounds
Training in writing and
communicating
Access to training to keep skills up
to date
Mastering social media
Knowing a foreign language
Very
important
Somewhat
important
Training in math and science
Knowing a computer or
programming language
NET 85%
85%
85%
82%
69%
64%
37%
36%
8) People think knowledge of computers, social dexterity,
communications skills and access to training are key to success
October 10, 2017
9) Americans think individuals and public schools should have
the most responsibility to make sure workers have the right skills
72
60
52
49
40
35
22
28
35
39
35
34
3
7
7
8
15
18
1
3
5
3
9
11
A lot of Some Only a little None
Individuals themselves
Public K-12 education system
Colleges and universities
Employers
State governments
Federal government
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/
% saying these groups should have ___ responsibility in making sure that the American workforce has the right skills and
education to be successful in today's economy
In the next 10 years, do you think we will see the emergence of
new educational and training programs that can successfully
train large numbers of workers in the skills they will need to
perform the jobs of the future?
70% “yes”
30% “no
10) Experts see major changes in education and jobs training
programs
http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/05/03/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training/
Theme 1) The training ecosystem will evolve, with a mix of
innovation in all education formats
Theme 2) Learners must cultivate 21st-century skills,
capabilities and attributes: Tough-to-teach intangibles
such as emotional intelligence, curiosity, creativity,
adaptability, resilience and critical thinking will be most
highly valued
Theme 3) New credentialing systems will arise as self-
directed learning expands
http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/05/03/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training/
October 10, 2017
Thank you!
Email: lrainie@pewresearch.org
Twitter: @lrainie
@pewinternet
@pewresearch

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10 Facts on the Future of Work and Automation's Impact on Jobs

  • 1. The future of work 10 facts about jobs in the future Lee Rainie - @lrainie Director Internet and Technology Research at PRC IMF- World Bank Youth Dialogue on the future of work Oct. 10, 2017
  • 2. October 10, 2017 1) The nature of jobs is changing as the knowledge economy rises http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/
  • 3. October 10, 2017 1) The nature of jobs is changing as the knowledge economy rises 50% 83 77 18 All occupations Occupations requiring higher levels of ... Analytical skills Physical skills Social skills http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/ % change in employment, 1980-2015
  • 4. October 10, 2017 4 2) Since 1990, employment growth most rapid in education and health services 105 99 81 63 39 32 30 23 Educational services Health care and social assistance Professional and business services Leisure and hospitality Transportation and warehousing Other services All Financial activities % change in industry employment, 1990-2015 http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/
  • 5. 32 30 23 22 20 19 12 7 2 -25 -30 warehousing Other services All Financial activities Construction Government Retail trade Wholesale trade Mining and logging Information Utilities Manufacturing October 10, 2017 % change in industry employment, 1990-2015 http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/
  • 6. 3) Automation, robots, artificial intelligence are taking over workers’ traditional tasks 47% Oxford researchers calculate this is the percentage of American employment that is at risk because of the expected impacts of computerization in the foreseeable future 50% McKinsey analysts estimate this is the share of activities workers are paid to do now that could be automated using currently available technologies – accounting for $15 trillion in wages October 10, 2017 6 http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf https://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/digital-disruption/harnessing-automation-for-a-future-that-works
  • 7. 3) Automation, robots, artificial intelligence are taking over workers’ traditional tasks October 10, 2017 https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf 45 years The timeframe estimated by artificial intelligence experts when “high level machine intelligence” – unaided machines that can accomplish any given task better and more cheaply than humans – will be developed - 2024: outperform language translators - 2027: drive a truck - 2031 : work in retail - 2049: write best selling book - 2053: work as a surgeon
  • 8. October 10, 2017 4) People think many professions at risk – but not their own jobs % of U.S. adults who think it is ___ likely that the following jobs will be replaced by robots or computers in their lifetimes http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/
  • 9. 5) People express more worry than optimism about future automation October 10, 2017 http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/
  • 10. October 10, 2017 6) Workers express more positive than negative views on overall impact of technology on their careers http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/ % of U.S. workers who say the following
  • 11. 7) Workers with higher levels of education more likely to say tech has increased opportunities, made jobs more interesting October 10, 2017 64 5354 51 38 32 Made their work more interesting Increased their opportunities for advancement College grad+ Some college HS grad or less http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/10/04/automation-in-everyday-life/
  • 12. 40 35 37 33 22 23 10 10 45 49 48 49 47 41 27 25 12 12 13 16 26 26 40 43 Extremely important Having a detailed understanding of how to use computer technology Being able to work with people from many different backgrounds Training in writing and communicating Access to training to keep skills up to date Mastering social media Knowing a foreign language Very important Somewhat important Training in math and science Knowing a computer or programming language NET 85% 85% 85% 82% 69% 64% 37% 36% 8) People think knowledge of computers, social dexterity, communications skills and access to training are key to success
  • 13. October 10, 2017 9) Americans think individuals and public schools should have the most responsibility to make sure workers have the right skills 72 60 52 49 40 35 22 28 35 39 35 34 3 7 7 8 15 18 1 3 5 3 9 11 A lot of Some Only a little None Individuals themselves Public K-12 education system Colleges and universities Employers State governments Federal government http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/ % saying these groups should have ___ responsibility in making sure that the American workforce has the right skills and education to be successful in today's economy
  • 14. In the next 10 years, do you think we will see the emergence of new educational and training programs that can successfully train large numbers of workers in the skills they will need to perform the jobs of the future? 70% “yes” 30% “no 10) Experts see major changes in education and jobs training programs http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/05/03/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training/
  • 15. Theme 1) The training ecosystem will evolve, with a mix of innovation in all education formats Theme 2) Learners must cultivate 21st-century skills, capabilities and attributes: Tough-to-teach intangibles such as emotional intelligence, curiosity, creativity, adaptability, resilience and critical thinking will be most highly valued Theme 3) New credentialing systems will arise as self- directed learning expands http://www.pewinternet.org/2017/05/03/the-future-of-jobs-and-jobs-training/
  • 16. October 10, 2017 Thank you! Email: lrainie@pewresearch.org Twitter: @lrainie @pewinternet @pewresearch

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/the-state-of-american-jobs/