1.
IoT future shock: Too much
change too fast?
Lee Rainie
Director, Internet, Science, and Technology Research
May 10, 2017
ABA: Science and Technology Law

2.
The IoT rollout

3.
BODIES (CYBORGS)
ME TRACKERS &
DIAGNOSERS
INSTANT INTELLIGENCE ON
OTHERS & STUFF
REMOTE
CONTROLLERS
REMINDERS AND
ARCHIVING
EXTRA BRAIN LOBE & PAIR
OF HANDS
Implantable
s

4.
HOMESHOMES
SMART SYSTEMS
FINDABLE ITEMS
WARNING
SERVICES
ANTICIPATORY &
MEDIA DELIVERY
SURFACES

5.
COMMUNITIES
COMMUNITIES
MORE EFFICIENT &
CHEAPER SERVICES
TRANSPORTATION
& PARKING
POLLUTION
CROWDSOURCED
INTELLIGENCE

6.
ENVIRONMENT
CLIMATE &
POLLUTION
MONITOR EARTH
SYSTEMS
TRACK WILDLIFE &
HABITAT
INFRASTRUCTURE
WARNING SYSTEMS
& WEAR AND TEAR

7.
INDUSTRY
MAINTAIN/REPAIR
SUPPLY CHAIN
CONTROL (RETAIL
ANALYTICS
MONITORING /
MAINTAINING
ASSETS
QUALITY CONTROL

8.
Why this matters

9.
“Earth will don an electric skin” – Neil Gross, 1999
“In the next century, planet Earth will don an electronic
skin. It will use the internet as a scaffold to support
and transmit its sensations. This skin is already
being stitched together. It consists of millions of
embedded electronic measuring devices:
thermostats, pressure gauges, pollution detectors,
cameras, microphones, glucose sensors, EKGs,
electroencephalographs. These will probe and
monitor cities and endangered species, the
atmosphere, our ships, highways and fleets of
trucks, our conversations, our bodies--even our

10.
Estimates: Your mileage may vary
• IDC forecasts that by this year 60% of global manufacturers will use
analytics to sense and analyze data from connected goods/services and
soon yield 15% productivity improvements.
• IHS Economics forecasts IoT market will grow to 75.4 billion connections by
2025.
• Boston Consulting estimates that by 2020, $267 billion will be spent on IoT
technologies, products and services. Uses” predictive maintenance, self-
optimizing production, automated inventory management, remote patient
monitoring, smart meters, distributed generation and storage, fleet
management and demand response.
• General Electric estimates the Industrial IoT has potential to generate
revenues of up to $11.1 trillion on an annual basis by 2025 - $60 trillion will
be invested in next 15 years.
• Cisco says connected-home machine-to-machine connections will triple

11.
Dyn attack via Murai botnet – October 21, 2016
Exploits
Printers
Refrigerators
Web cams
Smart TVs
CCTV
DVRs
IP cameras
Resident gateways
Baby monitors
Light bulbs
+more
Victims
Amazon
Netflix
Target
PayPal
NY Times
Wall Street Journal
Twitter
CNN
Comcast / Verizon
Zillow
+scores more

12.
People’s cybersecurity
experiences and
knowledge

13.
A big problem
41
35
16
15
14
13
6
64
Noticed fraudulent charges on their credit card
Received a notice that personal information had been
compromised
Had their social media account taken over without
permission
Had their email account taken over without permission
Received notice their social security number was compromised
Had a loan or line of credit taken out in their name
Had a tax refund taken out in their name
Any of these

14.
How confident these entities can protect your data?

15.
How people keep track of their passwords

16.
Not best practices
• 41% of online adults have shared the password to one
of their online accounts with a friend or family member.
• 39% say that they use the same (or very similar)
passwords for many of their online accounts.
• 25% admit that they often use passwords that are less
secure than they’d like, because simpler passwords are
easier to remember than more complex ones.
• 28% of smartphone owners do not use screen locks
• 54% use public Wi-Fi networks for sensitive activities
like e-commerce and banking

17.
Knowledge – Tier 1

18.
Knowledge – Tier 2
Incorrect Correct Not sure

19.
Knowledge – Tier 3
Incorrect Correct Not sure

20.
Knowledge – Tier 4
Incorrect Correct Not sure

21.
Demographics
• Broad differences in knowledge by educational
attainment, especially concerning gap between
those who ended education at high school and those
who have college+ degrees
• Modest differences in knowledge by age
• Private browsing
• GPS function
• Multi-factor authentication
• Botnet
• Public Wi-Fi not always safe

22.
Pew Research Center – Imagining the Internet
Center (Elon University)
November 25–January 13, 2014
2,551 respondents
19% research scientist
10% authors, editors, journalists
9% entrepreneurs, biz leader
8% tech developers
8% activists
7% futurists, consultants
2% legislators, lawyers
2% pioneers

23.
What’s ahead

24.
Digital Life in 2025
The Internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less
visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s
lives for good and ill

25.
Bright sides

26.
Theme 1) Information sharing over the Internet will
be effortlessly interwoven into daily life making
us smarter, safer, more efficient. ‘Computication’
involving ‘smart agents’ will be commonplace.

27.
Theme 2) Artificial intelligence, augmented reality,
wearable devices, and big data will make people
more aware of their world and their own behavior
– which will especially aid in health care.

28.
Theme 3) Social and business encounters will be shaped
by virtual reality and telepresence. Interfaces with data
and objects will change and become easier. Speech and
gesture interaction will matter more

29.
Theme 4) The environment and structures themselves will
become ‘intelligent’ and expand our knowledge about
them – plus, enable their own ‘maintenance’ and ‘repairs’

30.
Dark sides

31.
Theme 1) Privacy will be more at risk and
something perhaps only the
privileged will enjoy.

32.
Theme 2) The nature of work will change in
unprecedented ways as robots and artificial
intelligence assume greater roles in job
functions

33.
Theme 3) Dangerous divides between haves
and have-nots may expand, resulting in
resentment and possible violence.

34.
Theme 4) Abuses and abusers will ‘evolve and
scale.’ Human nature isn’t changing. Those pursuing
crime, laziness, bullying, stalking, stupidity,
pornography, and dirty tricks have new capacity to
make life miserable for others.

35.
Theme 5) Humans and their organizations
may not respond quickly enough to
challenges presented by complex networks.

36.
July 1 – August 12, 2016
1,201 respondents
25% research scientist
14% tech developers
10% activists
9% futurists, consultants
8% authors, editors, journalists
7% entrepreneurs, biz leader
2% legislators, lawyers
2% pioneers
New findings – Pew Research Center and Elon
University’s Imagining the Internet Center

37.
As billions more everyday objects are connected in the Internet of
Things they are sending and receiving data that enhances local,
national and global systems as well as individuals’ lives. But such
connectedness also creates exploitable vulnerabilities. As
automobiles, medical devices, smart TVs, manufacturing equipment
and other tools and infrastructure are networked, is it likely that
attacks, hacks, or ransomware concerns in the next decade will cause
significant numbers of people to decide to disconnect, or will the
trend towards greater connectivity of objects and people continue
unabated?
15% “more will disconnect”
85% “connection will continue unabated”

38.
Six themes
1) People crave connection and convenience, and a tech-linked world serves
both goals well
2) Unplugging is nearly impossible now; by 2026 it will be even more
tougher
3) Risk is part of life. The IoT will be accepted despite dangers because most
people believe the worst-case scenario would never happen to them
4) Human ingenuity and risk-mitigation strategies will make the IoT safer
-----
5) Notable numbers will disconnect
6) Whether or not people disconnect, the dangers are real. Security and
privacy issues will be magnified to a great degree by the rapid rise of the
Internet of Things

39.
Fear not