1. Americans’ Weakening Ties to Organized
Religion, 1973-2012:
Generations & Politics
Michael Hout
New York University
Claude S. Fischer
University of California, Berkeley
Pew Research Centers
Religion & Public Life Project
8 August 2013
1

2. We analyzed the trend 1973–2000
Politics:
Political liberals and
moderates —
but not conservatives —
increasingly declared no
religion
Generations:
Cohort replacement
accounted for 40% of the
trend
Why do generations
differ?
American Sociological Review, April 2002
2

3. Today:
Update the trend through 2012
Discuss why cohorts differ
3

4. Updating the trend
4

5. Smoother, slower — but sustained — rise
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
Noreligiouspreference(%)
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012
Year
Notes: Dots are observed data, vertical lines show 95% confidence interval, and the trend
line is estimated using locally estimated (loess) regression.
5

6. Smoother, slower — but sustained — rise
1991
Hout-Fischer model
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
Noreligiouspreference(%)
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012
Year
Notes: Dots are observed data, vertical lines show 95% confidence interval, and the trend
line is estimated using locally estimated (loess) regression.
6

7. 0
10
20
30
40
Noreligion(%)
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Liberal
Conservative
Political gap not only persisted…
it got wider
7

8. Cohort replacement clear then
1900-1915
1916-1925
1926-1935
1936-1945
1946-1955
1956-1965
1966-1975
1976-1985
0
10
20
30
Noreligiouspreference(%)
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012
Year
8

9. Cohort replacement clear then
1900-1915
1916-1925
1926-1935
1936-1945
1946-1955
1956-1965
1966-1975
1976-1985
0
10
20
30
Noreligiouspreference(%)
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012
Year
Explained 40% of trend
9

10. 1900-1915
1916-1925
1926-1935
1936-1945
1946-1955
1956-1965
1966-1975
1976-1985
1986-1995
0
10
20
30
Noreligiouspreference(%)
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012
Year
Cohort replacement clearer now
10

11. 1900-1915
1916-1925
1926-1935
1936-1945
1946-1955
1956-1965
1966-1975
1976-1985
1986-1995
0
10
20
30
Noreligiouspreference(%)
1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012
Year
Cohort replacement clearer now
Explains 60% of trend
11

12. What explains cohort differences?
12

13. Politics & cohort differences both rooted in:
Culture shock
… & two aftershocks
13

14. The shock
Sex
Drugs
Question
authority
14

15. First aftershock
Moral majority
Traditional values
Church-based
15

16. Second aftershock
AIDS kills sons,
brothers, uncles &
cousins
Gay ➞ normal
16

17. Two more considerations
Many parents emphasize
“think for yourself” over
obedience
Undermines the authority
in traditional authority
… including the teaching
authority of religious
leaders
Academic literature: Miller & Swanson, Lenski, Kohn, Alwin.
17

18. … and secularization
Heaven
Afterlife
Miracles
Hell
God
no doubt
Bible
word-for-word
Atheist or Agnostic
0
25
50
75
100
Belief(%)
1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990
Year of Birth
Source: General Social Surveys, 1988-2010.
Boomers skeptical about Bible
Recent cohorts have more doubts about God & more agnostic
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19. Our statistical test
19

20. Random effects model of cohort differences
Null New
Personal characteristics
Period: dummies
Cohort: random effects
Personal characteristics
Period: dummies
Cohort: random effects
Counter-cultural attitudes
regarding sex & drugs
Values independent thinking
Secularization index
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21. Random effects model of cohort differences
Null New
Personal characteristics
Period: dummies
Cohort: random effects
Personal characteristics
Period: dummies
Cohort: random effects
Counter-cultural attitudes
regarding sex & drugs
Values independent thinking
Secularization index
Cohort differences,
not personal
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22. Cohort differences explained by sex, drugs, and
independent thinking (not disbelief)
Coefficients for Cohort Covariates and the Standard Deviations of
Cohort Random Effects
Coefficients for Cohort Covariates and the Standard Deviations of
Cohort Random Effects
Coefficients for Cohort Covariates and the Standard Deviations of
Cohort Random Effects
Cohort variable Null New
Counter-cultural attitudes
regarding sex and drugs
— 0.36Counter-cultural attitudes
regarding sex and drugs (0.07)
Values independent thinking — 0.24
(0.06)
Secularization index — 0.04
(0.03)
Cohort: random effects (σ) 0.41 0.08
(0.05) (0.03)
Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Significant coefficients in bold.Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Significant coefficients in bold.Note: Standard errors in parentheses. Significant coefficients in bold.
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23. Conclusions
Politics:
Political liberals and
moderates —
but not conservatives —
increasingly declared no
religion
Generations:
Cohort replacement
accounted for 40% of the
trend
American Sociological Review, April 2002
23

24. Conclusions
Politics:
Political liberals and moderates
—
but not conservatives —
increasingly declared no
religion
Generations:
Cohort replacement accounted
for 60% of the trend
Baby boom and later
generations developed
values and attitudes that
undermine traditional
authority
No sign of secularization
American Sociological Review, April 2002
Confirmed
Extended
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