1. Advanced Knowledge & Tips by Pierre A Pienaar
Weekly Futures Recap with Mike Seery
2. Dear Trader,
We’ve asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly
recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has
extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news,
Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on
First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Energy Futures--- The energy futures had a wild trading week with heating oil the big
story after breaking out from 3.10 a gallon a couple weeks back hitting a 3 ½ month
high and as I had advised buying the 3 ½ month breakout to the upside now up another
400 points today at 3.2425 in the March contract a gallon hitting an 11 month high up
around 800 points for the trading week due to the fact of a big storm hitting New
England. Crude oil futures were slightly lower this Friday afternoon down around $2 for
the trading week with major resistance at $98 and major support at $95 still stuck in a
sideways channel after consolidating after hitting 4 month highs and still trading above
its 20 and 100 day moving average. Unleaded gasoline which is been the strongest in
the energy sector trading far above its 20 and 100 day moving average consolidating for
the week basically trading unchanged this Friday afternoon finishing up over 500 points
still at 1 year highs on the fact that demand around the world is increasing tremendously
pushing prices up as stock markets are also improving around the world increasing
optimism. In my opinion I have been bullish the energy sector as a whole and I still
continue to see higher prices but 1 commodity that makes me a little nervous is
unleaded gasoline it might be due for a consolidation here for a couple of weeks before
making the next leg up, however I still think prices are going higher due to the fact that
we are going to have huge Mideast tensions between Israel and Iran in the in the future
pushing prices up the levels we haven’t seen since 2008. If you’re looking to get
involved in trading the energy sector which is very volatile an extremely risky and might
not be suitable for every investor, however if you’re looking at purchasing calls or doing
bull call spreads that limit your risk to what the premium costs therefore you can sleep
at night which can be more suitable for some investors and smaller trading
accounts. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Precious Metal Futures-- The precious metals were mixed this week with gold trading
in a very tight range basically finishing unchanged for the trading week 1, 671 an ounce
in the April contract still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving averages while
remaining in a sideways pattern the last 6 weeks with major resistance in the April
contract is at 1, 687 while major support is at 1, 653 and one of these days we will
develop a trend and as I’ve stated in many previous blogs I am bullish gold and the rest
3. the precious metals but there really is no trend in sight. Silver futures are trading right
at its 20 day moving average but below its 100 day moving average which stands at
32.47 an ounce after settling last Friday at 31.95 finishing down on the week by about
$.50 with major resistance at 32.00 and major support at 30.78 this market is starting
to consolidate over the last month or so and I am looking for a major breakout to the
upside possibly getting back in the low 40s in the next couple of months in my opinion.
Copper futures remain very strong due to the fact that the S&P 500 is hitting new 5 year
highs again today showing continuing improvement while economies around the world
and the U.S housing market starting to move to the upside once again propping up
demand for copper right near 4 month high with the next major resistance at 380 – 385
continuing its bullish grind move higher with excellent chart structure. Platinum futures
are higher once again today in early trade only to sell off 5 dollars in the April contract at
1, 716 hitting a new contract high for the week with concerns of possible shortages
throughout the world causing possible spikes in prices during the year while palladium
prices are hitting new contract highs once again up about $3 at 752 continuing its bullish
market on the fact that the car industry has bounced back tremendously which is
spurring demand for platinum and palladium. As I’ve stated in many previous blogs I am
bullish the entire sector so I’m advising traders to be long all of the precious metals
remembering always place a stop in case you are wrong trying to minimize your
monetary losses and risk but at this point I still think the trends are higher and I think
demand is going to stay robust especially with easy monetary policies around the world
occurring. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Orange Juice Futures--- Orange juice futures in New York this week traded in an
extremely tight trading range still right at 5 week highs trading higher by nearly 150
points this Friday afternoon at 122.75 still trading above its 20 and 100 day moving
average continuing its short-term bullish trend. Orange juice still has major support at
110 and major resistance at this week’s high of 124 with chart structure improving on a
daily basis settling last Friday at 121.75 basically up 200 points or around $300 profit or
loss per contract for the trading week and in my opinion as I’ve written in previous blogs
I do think that orange juice prices can move higher going into spring and the summer
months despite the fact that sugar and coffee which are both soft commodities hit new 2
½ year lows today but it did not have any negative affect on orange juice prices this
week. Harvest is showing good progress and we should have ample supply on the
market here in the short term but I believe that the market has already digested all the
negative fundamental news so we are possibly in a sideways to higher pattern in the
short term.TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Coffee Futures--- Coffee futures hit a fresh 2 1/2 year low this week and are now 40%
from their highs that were just hit last year on 2/9/12 at 235.80 down for the 5th
consecutive trading session in early trade before rallying on the close to finish higher by
4. 80 points at 141.65 after settling last Friday at 148 closing over 600 points lower for the
trading week. Coffee is still trading far below its 20 and 100 day moving average with
excellent chart structure allowing you place tight stops in case you are wrong on the
trade minimizing risk and at this point when contract lows are broken you have to think
that the trend will continue with the possibility of coffee prices going as low as 130 here
in the next couple of weeks due to the fact of a large harvest in Central America and
Brazil putting pressure on prices in the short term. The rumors of rust on the leaves and
trees in Central America possibly affecting 30% of the crop next year is not supporting
the price at this time because that is strictly speculation and it has not actually happened
so prices in the short term still look reasonably weak. I have been wrong on the coffee
market because I thought we possibly bottomed in the last couple of weeks but
sometimes you just have to admit you are wrong and you get out minimizing risk and at
this point the trend is to the downside. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE:
EXCELLENT
Sugar Futures-- Sugar futures in New York hit fresh 2 1/2 year lows once again today
currently trading at 18.10 down 5 points in a pretty lack luster Friday afternoon,
however finishing lower by nearly 80 points for the week still far below its 20 and 100
day moving average with excellent chart structure to the downside settling lower for the
5th consecutive trading session. Coffee prices also hit 2 1/2 year lows today also putting
pressure on sugar prices because both crops are grown down in Brazil with an excellent
harvest and ample supply coming onto the market continuing to put pressure on sugar
prices in the short term and now you have to look back all the way to 2010 prices of
around 15.25 a pound as the next major support. If sugar prices continue to go lower
and right now the trend is down and I never recommend buying new contract lows
because generally in my opinion contract lows will equal more contract lows in the future
but if sugar prices get down to ridiculous levels like where we were in 2010 and if you
are a longer term investor I would be scooping up prices down at those levels. TREND:
LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
Cotton Futures--- Cotton futures in New York were trading in a very narrow range this
Friday afternoon after settling last week at 82.98 down only 30 points in the last 5 days
but still trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average really consolidating the last
run-up in prices with 84.00 as the next major resistance. Cotton prices have been
rallying on the fact that there should be around 2 million less planted acres which will be
going to corn and soybeans, however it is too early as we are still in February to really
be able to get reliable figures because come April is when you want to see the prices of
corn and soybeans and cotton to dictate what you will plant and that is still several
months away and prices could move drastically in the next 60 days. Corn futures in the
recent weeks have been going lower so you never know farmers what might plant more
cotton if cotton is higher than corn at the time of planting season so at this point I still
5. think cotton is going higher but I think you could see a bearish consolidation of the most
recent move with the trading range between 80 and 84 for several more weeks. TREND:
HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
What Does Risk Management Mean To You? I generally tell people that the reason
people lose money in commodities is not due to the fact that they are bad at predicting
where prices are headed, however they are bad when it comes to losing trades and
refusing to take a loss which results for heavy monetary losses that are difficult to come
back from. For example if a customer has $100,000 account in my opinion on any given
trade he or she should risk 2% – 3% of the account value meaning if you are wrong the
worst-case scenario is still a $97,000 remaining balance, however what I always see is
traders risking ridiculous amounts of money and instead of the 3% stop loss will risk 20%
to 30% on any given trade or even higher therefore if you are wrong on two or three
trades that $100,000 dollar account could dwindle down to nothing very quickly and
I’ve seen it many times throughout my career. What many traders forget to realize is
they might have 4 or 5 commodity positions on and if you have too many contracts on
all at the same time and all of those trades go against you which is very possible the
losses can add up to be staggering so what I am suggesting to you is if you have
$100,000 account risk between $2,000 – $3,000 per trade so if you lose on five straight
trades the worst-case scenario is that your down $15,000 and still have an $85,000
balance which is very possible to still come back from and your still in the game.
If you are looking for a futures broker feel free to contact Michael Seery at 800-615-
7649 and he will be more than happy to help you with your trading or
visit www.seeryfutures.com
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures, futures option and forex trading.
Furthermore, Seery Futures is not responsible for the accuracy of the information
contained on linked sites. Trading futures and options is Not appropriate for every
investor.
Michael Seery, President
Seery Futures
Facebook.com/seeryfutures
Twitter–@seeryfutures
Phone # (800) 615-7649
mseery@seeryfutures.com
6. Source Ino.com
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Trader
Trade smart, not with Greed
Pierre A Pienaar
Pierre A Pienaar retired in 2011 from business.
I would like to share my passion, my interests, knowledge & experiences
in Forex, Options, Gold Investments, Futures, Stocks, Binary Options, Economics,
Stamp Collection, Sports, Gardening, Reading, Photography, Politics
7. Resources for the Trader:
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8. Substantial risk of loss
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. You should therefore
carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial
condition. You should read, understand, and consider the Risk Disclosure Statement that
is provided by your broker before you consider trading.
Online trading is risky. The risk of loss in online trading of stocks, options, and foreign
equities is substantial.