Intelligence Analysis & Cognitive Biases: an Illustrative Case Study

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This case study is foremost an educational tool. It involves two European and Asian multinational tires manufacturer for OTR, Off the Road, or “off road” and a problem of price competition. It shows how an initial intelligence effort is led astray. Instead the solution is a combination of approaches, better known as Competitive Intelligence. It is built on the external vision of the company craft, the use of all information sources characteristics of an intelligence field dedicated to the business world. It is not a new discipline but a trans-disciplinary approach for information exploitation which is using elements from financial analysis, SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) matrixes, and value chain analysis. In the above case, the company Eurotires used mostly the following sources: internet, scientific and patent databases; public administrative sources; customers interviews, industrial experts (manufacturing and distribution), and marketing analysis.

Business

Intelligence analysis
and cognitive biases
An illustrative case study
"He who knows nothing is
closer to the truth than he
whose mind is filled with
falsehoods and errors"
Thomas Jefferson

4/25/2016 Pierre Memheld - Copyright 2016
Somebody needs to link the trees to
see the forest
In order to not be lost
2

SWOT Analysis
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De l’analyse
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PEST Analysis
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Various Analysis
Processes
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« LA PLUS GRANDE ERREUR DE
L’ESPRIT EST DE CROIRE EN
QUELQUE CHOSE CAR
QUELQU’UN VEUT QU’IL EN
SOIT AINSI »
LOUIS PASTEUR
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Analysis Process

Intelligence Cycle
Client
Express
Plan
Collect
Exploit
Analyze
Produce
8
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« Objective Centric »
Analysis
Needs
Collect
Sources
New
Information
Competitor
New Needs
Issues
(clients)
Actionnable
Analyse
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Pierre Memheld - Copyright 201625/04/2016
Phases
Marke
t
Objectiv
es
Context Means
Competi
tors
Environ
ment
Contrain
sts
Analysis
Plans ROE
Analysis
Decision
Decision
Concept
s
Scenarii
Synthes
is
Executi
on
10

« Methods Centric »
Decisio
n
Context
Environ
ment
Compet
itors
Concep
tion
Text Mining
Cartography
Social Networks
Distribution
Benchmarking
Timeliners
PEST-EL
Brevets, experts
Organizational
Behaviour
Value Chain
Financial Analysis
SWOT
Brainstorming
Strategic Simulation
Risks Analysis
Sectorial Behaviours
Scenarii Analysis
Strategic Planning
ACH
Decision Profiling
11
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Various Application
Contexts
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12

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Rubikscube ™
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Context: Text Mining
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Context: Cartography
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Context: Social Networks
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Context: Distribution
Géographique
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Environment: Benchmarking
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Environment: Timeliners
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Environment: PEST-EL
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Environment: Patents, Experts …
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Competitors: Organisational
Behaviours
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Competitors: Value Chain
Analysis
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Competitors: Financial Analysis
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Competitors: SWOT
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Conception: « Brainstorming »
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Conception: Risks’ Mapping
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Conception: Strategic Simulation
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Decision: « Analysis of
Competing Hypotheses »
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Decision: Scenario Analysis
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Decision: Profiling
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Analysis Constraints &
Limits
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Decisions Informations

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Limits Solutions
Methods
Expertise
Analysis Assets
Monitoring
Processing
Biaises
Info. Overload
Availability

Cognitive Biases
 A cognitive bias refers to a systematic pattern of deviation from
norm or rationality in judgment, whereby inferences about other
people and situations may be drawn in an illogical fashion.
 Individuals create their own "subjective social reality" from their
perception of the input. An individual's construction of social reality,
not the objective input, may dictate their behaviour in the social
world.
 Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual
distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, or what is
broadly called irrationality.
 Some cognitive biases are presumably adaptive. Cognitive biases
may lead to more effective actions in a given context.
 Furthermore, cognitive biases enable faster decisions when
timeliness is more valuable than accuracy, as illustrated in heuristics.
 Other cognitive biases are a "by-product" of human processing
limitations, resulting from a lack of appropriate mental mechanisms
(bounded rationality), or simply from a limited capacity for
information processing.
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Decision Makers Profiling
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Cognitive Biases
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Real case biases
 Lack of reliable information: distorsion
from the source to the analyst …
 “Confirmation Bias”: we tried to confirm
the false hypothesis of the customer …
 “Social Constrainst”: we did not challenge
the customer’s belief …
 “Financial Constraint”: the customer pays
you so agree with him …
 “Biaises’ Bias”: despite the knowledge of
analysis methods, we biased ourselves …
25/04/2016 Pierre Memheld - Copyright 2016 39

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1. Intelligence analysis and cognitive biases An illustrative case study "He who knows nothing is closer to the truth than he whose mind is filled with falsehoods and errors" Thomas Jefferson

10. Pierre Memheld - Copyright 201625/04/2016 Phases Marke t Objectiv es Context Means Competi tors Environ ment Contrain sts Analysis Plans ROE Analysis Decision Decision Concept s Scenarii Synthes is Executi on 10

11. « Methods Centric » Decisio n Context Environ ment Compet itors Concep tion Text Mining Cartography Social Networks Distribution Benchmarking Timeliners PEST-EL Brevets, experts Organizational Behaviour Value Chain Financial Analysis SWOT Brainstorming Strategic Simulation Risks Analysis Sectorial Behaviours Scenarii Analysis Strategic Planning ACH Decision Profiling 11 Pierre Memheld - Copyright 201625/04/2016

35. Cognitive Biases  A cognitive bias refers to a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment, whereby inferences about other people and situations may be drawn in an illogical fashion.  Individuals create their own "subjective social reality" from their perception of the input. An individual's construction of social reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behaviour in the social world.  Thus, cognitive biases may sometimes lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, illogical interpretation, or what is broadly called irrationality.  Some cognitive biases are presumably adaptive. Cognitive biases may lead to more effective actions in a given context.  Furthermore, cognitive biases enable faster decisions when timeliness is more valuable than accuracy, as illustrated in heuristics.  Other cognitive biases are a "by-product" of human processing limitations, resulting from a lack of appropriate mental mechanisms (bounded rationality), or simply from a limited capacity for information processing. 25/04/2016 Pierre Memheld - Copyright 2016 35

39. Real case biases  Lack of reliable information: distorsion from the source to the analyst …  “Confirmation Bias”: we tried to confirm the false hypothesis of the customer …  “Social Constrainst”: we did not challenge the customer’s belief …  “Financial Constraint”: the customer pays you so agree with him …  “Biaises’ Bias”: despite the knowledge of analysis methods, we biased ourselves … 25/04/2016 Pierre Memheld - Copyright 2016 39

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