Policy in Practice has embarked on an ambitious project to track changing living standards for almost one million Londoners over the course of two years, on a monthly basis. This work combines data from 14 London boroughs to track changes across 444,000 low income households made up of 550,000 adults and 350,000 children, representing 27% of the overall population living in the participating boroughs. Deven Ghelani shared findings from Phase One of the project at IntoWork 2017. Collaborating on data sharing allows us to: • Combine data across London in order to benchmark changes, offering a large enough sample to understand niche areas such as self-employment or temporary housing. • Track households to understand the causal drivers of poverty and prosperity on a systematic basis. Policy in Practice works with local authorities to show the cumulative impact of tax and benefit changes on individual households, both now and in the future. This project builds on this with a longitudinal data model, simulation engine and visualisation platform to make this information accessible to policymakers and offer a deeper understanding of poverty. We look forward to welcoming even more local authorities to the project as we progress to Phase two. To find out more, and to request the full report, please email hello@policyinpractice.co.uk. We look forward to hearing from you.

1. Deven Ghelani
Policy in Practice
INTOWORK 2017
TRACKING THE
PROSPECTS OFHALFA
MILLION LOW-INCOME
LONDONERS OVERTWO
YEARS

2. Agenda
1. Introduction to the project
2. What you want out of today
3. Findings: Housing, Employment & Barriers to work
4. A demonstration of the platform
5. What questions do you want to ask?

3. 333
“20% of the success of this project
lies in the data, 80% is in the
collaboration”
Andrew Collinge, Assistant Director, GLA

4. Thank you

5. • 5 separate policy scenarios from 2015 - 2020
• 27% of the total population in participating boroughs
Large scale data analysis

6. Your Housing Benefit /
Council Tax data
Our Universal Benefit
Calculator
Rich, detailed impact
assessment: who is
impacted and what are the
Council-wide effects?
Our approach

7. 777
Name & Organisation
What you want out of today

9. The findings

10. 43.4%
11.7%2.8%
16.3%
25.9%
Economic status
In work
Not in work, on DLA or ESA
Not in work, carer
Not in work, lone parent
Not in work, other
Demographics indicators
• 43.4% of working-age households are in
work
• A quarter of these are self-employed
• Top 3 boroughs for employment figures:
1. Harrow(58.0%),
2. Brent (57.5%)
3. Croydon (52.5%)
• 60.6% live in social housing.
• This ranges from 74.3% within inner
boroughs, and drops to 45.1% among outer
boroughs

11. The static picture
• Working-age households in work: 42%
• Average number of hours worked: 25
• 80% of households earn below living
wage.
A constant churn of households
Dynamic analysis
• 12% of households moved into or out of
work in the last 12 months.
• 8% of out of work households moved
into work.
Shifting the focus from aggregate figures to dynamic analysis reveals a picture
of constantly changing employment patterns

12. Take needs into account
Taking needs into account is essential
to identify households living day to
day.
It captures more households
• In work
• Renters
• Impacted by welfare reform
and is arguably a better assessment of
resilience than relative income.
Local authorities are using this to
target support, such as DHPs.

13. Hackney and Enfield have highest % of economic deprivations, under both measures. H&F, Lambeth &
Camden have higher % of people at financial risk than households living in poverty
Relative poverty versus financial risk
indicators, by borough

14. Relative poverty versus financial risk
indicators, by ward

15. Outer London is hardest hit

16. 75% of all workless households face
some sort of barrier to work
Within this group, lone parents
were most likely to move into
employment (14%).
Only 2% of workless households
claiming either ESA or DLA moved
into employment in twelve months.
Disability is the biggest barrier

17. Growing gap between HB and rent
Private rents have increased by 2.4% on average
Top 3 boroughs for rent increase are:
Islington (3.0%)
Southwark (3.0%)
Lambeth (2.5%)
The gap between rent and HB has increased by
10%.
Top 3 boroughs for rent increase are:
Croydon (27.0%)
Hammersmith & Fulham (15.9%)
Southwark(15.5%)

18. Two-thirds of households in
temporary accommodation have
been there for twelve months.
A growing majority of
households in temporary
accommodation are in work, and
living in the private rented
sector.
Three times as many households
in TA have been affected by the
Benefit Cap.
Causal analysis to follow.
The benefit cap and temp. housing

19. Conclusions
• Aggregate statistics and KPIs overshadow the complex dynamics affecting
the pockets and prospects of low-income households.
• The gap between rent and housing benefit has increased by 10%. Outer
London boroughs are more heavily impacted.
• An effective measure of living standards should take needs into account. This
captures more households at financial risk.
• Understanding the impact of welfare reform, and changes in employment
and housing can be useful predictors of risk and crisis, allowing you to act
pre-emptively.

20. 212121
The findings
Outer London Boroughs are more heavily impacted
An effective measure of living standards should take
needs into account
Tracking employment patterns shows disability to be the
greatest barrier
The benefit cap disproportionally affects temporary
accommodation

21. 222222
“This approach allows policymakers to ask a different set of
questions.
Pulling data and the analytical capability across geographies enables
policymakers to see the causal links between policy, living standards
and employment.
It presents a dynamic picture in which local and national policies
interact, complement, duplicate or detract from one another and
shows that legal and technical barriers around data-sharing can be
overcome, laying the foundations for future collaboration.”
Jane Mansour,
independent policy consultant

22. 232323
Next phase of research
• Dynamic effects of the Benefit Cap: moving households
into work or pushing them into temporary
accommodation?
• Fluctuations in living standards: what are the drivers
behind people falling into poverty/financial risk?
• Prospects of low-income Londoners in 2020: what
effects will planned policy changes, Universal Credit,
higher living costs have on living standards?

23. Next steps
1. Second round of data collection (post July)
2. Analysis will focus on:
• Tracking the effects of the benefit cap, assessing whether the policy is
achieving its objectives
• Understanding correlation between significant changes in circumstances
• Your ideas
3. Preliminary publications of the findings

24. 252525
What you want to be able to do with
the analysis?

25. www.policyinpractice.co.uk
Thank you
Deven Ghelani
deven@policyinpractice.co.uk
0330 088 9242