The document analyzes the economic outlook for 2014 and beyond. It finds that while the US economic recovery will continue in 2014, growth will remain below historical averages. Unemployment remains elevated due to structural factors. Consumer spending and business investment will slowly increase in 2014, supporting moderate GDP growth. Federal fiscal policy uncertainty poses a headwind. Overall, the recovery is ongoing but uneven across states, industries, and demographic groups.

1. Economic Outlook for 2014 and Beyond
Michael A. Brown, Economist
December 13, 2013

2. Overview
Businesses
Consumers
2014
Growth
Employment
Wells Fargo Economics
2
Fiscal Policy

3. Where Are We Now?
U.S. Real GDP
Bars = CAGR
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
10%
10%
GDP - CAGR: Q3 @ 3.6%
8%
GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 1.8%
6%
6%
Forecast
4%
There will be a sustained
recovery in 2014, but the pace of
growth will still be below the
historical average of 3.1 percent
(1987-2007)
8%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-8%
-8%
-10%
2000
-10%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
3
2012
2014

4. Capital Spending
Real Business Fixed Investment
Bars = CAGR
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
30%
30%
20%
20%
Forecast
10%
Growth in business fixed
investment spending will remain
modest in the second half of the
year
0%
10%
0%
-10%
-10%
-20%
-20%
-30%
-30%
Non-Res Fixed Invest - CAGR: Q3 @ 3.5%
Non-Res Fixed Invest - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 3.2%
-40%
2000
-40%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
4
2012
2014

5. Small Businesses
Wells Fargo Small Business Survey & NFIB
Overall Situation, NFIB Small Business Optimism 1986=100
120
100
110
80
105
60
100
40
95
20
90
0
85
-20
The small business sector is
improving but a full recovery in
small business optimism is still
distant
115
80
-40
Overall Situation: Q3 2013 @ 25.0 (Left Axis)
75
Small Business Optimism: Q3 2013 @ 94.0 (Right Axis)
-60
2004
70
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses, Gallup, Wells Fargo Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
5

6. U.S. Housing Market
Single & Multifamily Housing Starts
SAAR, In Thousands, 3-Month Moving Average
2,000
1,800
540
1,600
480
1,400
420
1,200
360
1,000
300
800
240
600
180
400
Multifamily construction has
picked up while construction of
single-family homes has been
slower to rebound
600
120
Single-family Housing Starts: Aug @ 604K (Left Axis)
200
60
Multifamily Housing Starts: Aug @ 266K (Right Axis)
0
0
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
6
05
07
09
11
13

7. Housing Market
Delinquencies remain elevated and inventory levels have come down
Delinquencies
Inventory
Mortgages 90+ Days Delinquent - By State
Inventory of Existing Homes for Sale
Percent of Mortgages Outstanding
Indiana
2.8%
Ohio
2.8%
Illinois
Existing Homes for Sale at End of Month - In Thousands
2.8%
Pennsylvania
4,500
As of Q2 2013
2.9%
Arkansas
4,500
Total Inventory: Oct @ 2.1 Million
4,000
4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
3.0%
Florida
3.1%
New York
3.2%
Tennessee
3.2%
Alabama
3.4%
Massachusetts
3.4%
Georgia
3.4%
Delaware
3.4%
Rhode Island
3.7%
Maryland
3.9%
Mississippi
4.2%
Nevada
4.3%
New Jersey
4.3%
United States
2.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1,500
7%
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
1,500
99
7
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13

8. Housing Market
Home Prices
Year-over-Year Percentage Change
24%
24%
16%
16%
8%
0%
National home price
appreciation remains robust
8%
0%
-8%
-8%
-16%
-16%
Median Sale Price: Oct @ $199,500
Median Sales Price 3-M Mov. Avg.: Oct @ 12.2%
FHFA (OFHEO) Purchase Only Index: Sep @ 8.5%
S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10: Sep @ 13.3%
-24%
-24%
-32%
-32%
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
8

9. Home Mortgages
Negative Equity by State
Percent of Mortgages Outstanding
California
Maryland
17%
Rhode Island
Illinois
Georgia
23%
Q2 2013
36%
21%
Michigan
33%
22%
Arizona
40%
25%
Florida
59%
36%
United States
15%
0%
10%
22%
20%
Source: CoreLogic, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
9
43%
31%
Nevada
Wells Fargo Economics
Q2 2012
24%
19%
23%
19%
26%
20%
Ohio
Price appreciation over the last
year has helped to reduce
negative equity
29%
15%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%

10. The Consumer
Consumer Confidence Index
Conference Board
160
140
140
120
120
100
Consumer confidence has pulled
back recently
160
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
Confidence Yr/Yr % Chg: Nov @ -1.7%
Confidence: Nov @ 70.4
12-Month Moving Average: Nov @ 72.2
20
20
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
Source: The Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
10
03
05
07
09
11
13

11. The Consumer
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Bars = CAGR
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
Forecast
4%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
Consumer spending will slowly
begin to pick up in 2014
2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
2000
-8%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
-6%
PCE - CAGR: Q3 @ 1.4%
PCE - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 1.8%
11
2012
2014

12. The Employment Situation
Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
12%
12%
10%
10%
8%
6%
6%
4%
The unemployment rate remains
elevated due to structural factors
8%
4%
Unemployment Rate: Nov @ 7.0%
2%
2%
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
12
95
00
05
10

13. The Employment Situation
Unemployment Rate by Education Level
November 2013
14%
14%
12%
10%
The unemployment rate for
college-educated workers
remains around 4 percent, while
the unemployment rate for
workers with less than a high
school diploma is over 10
percent
12%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
No High School
Diploma
High School
Diploma
Some College
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
13
College Degree

14. Employment Rate
Employment-Population Ratio
16 Years and Over, Seasonally Adjusted
65
64
64
63
63
62
62
61
61
60
60
59
59
58
The employment rate shows how
dramatically the working
population has shrunk following
the recession
65
58
Employment-Population Ratio: Nov @ 58.6
57
57
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
14
04
06
08
10
12

15. Where is the Job Growth?
United States Employment by Industry
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-Month Moving Average
Government
November 2013
Information
Other Services
Goods Producing
Financial Activities
The service sector continues to
lead job growth
Educ. & Health Svcs.
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
Leisure and Hospitality
Prof. & Bus. Svcs.
Total Nonfarm
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
15
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%

16. Unemployment by County
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
September 2007
Greater than 12.5%
6.0% to 8.0%
10.0% to 12.5%
Less than 6.0%
8.0% to 10.0%
Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
16

17. Unemployment by County
Large Portions of the United States Continue to Face Serious Unemployment Issues
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rate
October 2013
Greater than 12.5%
6.0% to 8.0%
10.0% to 12.5%
Less than 6.0%
8.0% to 10.0%
Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
17

18. Inflation
PCE Market Deflators
Year-over-Year Percent Change
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
Inflation should not pose a
barrier to easier Federal Reserve
policy
5%
0%
"Core" PCE Market Deflator: Oct @ 1.0%
PCE Market Deflator: Oct @ 0.6%
-1%
-1%
98
00
02
04
06
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
18
08
10
12

19. Wells Fargo Fiscal Policy Outlook
Fiscal Policy Summary
 Short-term Shutdown Showdown Deal




Political uncertainty will
continue in the months ahead
Immediately re-opened government operations
The debt ceiling was suspended until February 7 th
Provides back pay to furloughed federal workers
House and Senate agree to work out FY14 Budget in
Committee
 What is next?
 December 13th – Joint Budget Committee Reports to Congress
 January 15th – Continuing Resolution Expires
 February 7th – Debt Ceiling Reached
Wells Fargo Economics
19

20. Headwinds to Economic Growth
Slow Global
Growth Environment
Smaller
Consumer Base
Government
Sector Restructuring
Headwinds to
Economic Growth
Structural Nature
of Unemployment
Uncertain Fiscal
Policy Outlook
Wells Fargo Economics
20

21. Revenue Outlook

22. State Income Tax Revenues
U.S. Average State Personal Income
Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0%
-1%
-1%
-2%
-2%
-3%
Personal income growth picked
up in the second quarter after a
sharp decline
4%
-3%
U.S. Personal Income: Q2 @ 1.0%
-4%
-4%
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
22

23. State Income Tax Revenues
U.S. State Income Tax Receipts
Year-over-Year Percent Change
25%
25%
20%
20%
15%
15%
10%
10%
5%
0%
Income tax revenues remained
stable in the second quarter
5%
0%
-5%
-5%
-10%
-10%
-15%
-15%
-20%
-20%
-25%
-30%
1995
-25%
U.S. Income Tax: Q2 @ 19.4%
-30%
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
23
2009
2011
2013

24. State Income Tax Revenues
Nominal Personal Income
Year-over-Year Percent Change
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
Forecast
6%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
Personal income growth will
moderate in 2014, keeping
income tax revenues positive but
more modest
4%
-4%
-6%
-8%
2000
-6%
Personal Income-Yr/Yr: Q3 @ 3.9%
-8%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
24
2012
2014

25. State Sales Tax Revenues
U.S. State Sales Tax Receipts
Year-over-Year Percent Change
16%
16%
12%
12%
8%
4%
4%
0%
0%
-4%
-4%
-8%
State sales tax collections growth
has averaged just 3.8 percent
since revenues turned positive
following the recession
8%
-8%
U.S. Sales Tax: Q2 @ 4.8%
-12%
1995
-12%
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
25
2007
2009
2011
2013

26. State Sales Tax Revenues
Retail Sales
Bars = CAGR
Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change
15%
15%
10%
10%
Forecast
5%
0%
While consumer spending
should continue to pick up over
the next year, sales tax
collections will remain modest
5%
0%
-5%
-5%
-10%
-10%
-15%
-15%
-20%
-20%
-25%
Retail Sales-CAGR: Q3 @ 4.6%
-25%
Retail Sales-Yr/Yr: Q3 @ 4.5%
-30%
2000
-30%
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
26
2012
2014

27. Property Tax Revenues
House Price Appreciation and Property Taxes
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 4-Quarter Moving Average
30%
30%
Purchase-Only Home Price Index: Q3 @ 7.1%
Property Tax Revenue: Q2 @ 1.6%
25%
25%
20%
15%
Home price appreciation has
helped to improve property tax
collections
20%
15%
10%
10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5%
-5%
-10%
-10%
96
98
00
02
04
06
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
27
08
10
12

28. The North Carolina Economy

29. North Carolina – Current Economic Conditions
North Carolina Coincident Index
Three-Month Percent Change
4.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
Economic activity in North
Carolina has picked up recently
4.0%
-3.0%
North Carolina: Oct @ 1.6%
-4.0%
-4.0%
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
29

30. North Carolina– Employment Growth & Unemployment Rate
Employment growth is picking up in the majority of sectors. The unemployment rate has come
down as individuals have left the labor force.
Employment
Unemployment Rate
North Carolina Employment Growth By Industry
North Carolina Unemployment Rate
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA
Seasonally Adjusted
12%
October 2013
Total Nonfarm
12%
Unemployment Rate: Oct @ 8.0%
12-Month Moving Average: Oct @ 8.9%
Trade, Trans. & Utilities
Government
10%
More
10%
Educ. & Health Services
Prof. & Bus. Svcs.
Number of
Employees
8%
8%
Less
6%
6%
4%
4%
Manufacturing
Leisure and Hospitality
Financial Activities
Construction
Other Services
Information
-4%
2%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
2%
90
30
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12

31. North Carolina – Personal Income Situation
Income growth has returned, however the bulk of the gains in personal income have come from
transfer payments.
Personal Income
Composition of Income Growth
North Carolina Personal Income
Bars = Compound Annual Rate
North Carolina: Wages & Salaries vs. Transfer Payments
In Billions, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Line = Yr/Yr % Change
15%
15%
12%
$275
12%
$275
$250
$250
$225
$225
$200
$200
$175
$175
9%
9%
6%
6%
3%
3%
$150
$150
0%
0%
$125
$125
-3%
-3%
$100
$100
-6%
-6%
$75
-9%
North Carolina Personal Income: Q2 @ 3.0%
$50
-9%
-12%
$25
Wages and Salaries: Q2 @ $193.1 Billion
$0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
$0
00
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
$50
Transfer Payments: Q2 @ $74.4 Billion
$25
North Carolina Personal Income: Q2 @ 2.0%
-12%
$75
31
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13

32. North Carolina– Home Prices and Construction
North Carolina home prices are rising once again and homebuilding has increased modestly.
Home Prices
Housing Permits
North Carolina Housing Permits
CoreLogic HPI: NC vs. U.S.
Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Index, 2000=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted
200
100
180
180
160
160
140
120
100
100
100
Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 62,968
140
120
120
Single-Family: Oct @ 33,132
Single-Family, 12-MMA: Oct @ 34,547
Multifamily, 12-MMA: Oct @ 14,990
d
n
a
s
u
o
h
T
200
120
220
United States: Oct @ 165.0
North Carolina: Oct @ 133.7
d
n
a
s
u
o
h
T
220
60
40
40
20
20
80
60
80
60
80
80
60
40
40
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
0
12
Source: CoreLogic, Inc., U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
0
90
32
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12

33. North Carolina – Unemployment Rate Composition
Unemployment Rate by County
North Carolina Unemployment Rate
October 2013
Greater than 10.5%
7.5% to 8.5%
9.5% to 10.5%
Less than 7.5%
8.5% to 9.5%
Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Client/Prospect Name

34. North Carolina Metro Areas: Employment
North Carolina Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
13%
13%
Charlotte: Oct @ 8.9%
Greensboro: Oct @ 9.4%
Fayetteville: Oct @ 9.9%
Asheville: Oct @ 7.0%
Raleigh : Oct @ 7.2%
Durham: Oct @ 6.8%
11%
9%
11%
9%
7%
7%
5%
5%
3%
The unemployment rate turned
down in most major metro areas
3%
1%
1%
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
34
04
06
08
10
12

35. North Carolina Metro Areas: Employment
North Carolina Employment Growth: October 2013
Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-Month Moving Average
1.5%
Recovering
Expanding
Greensboro-High Point
1.0%
Charlotte
Raleigh-Cary
Winston-Salem
0.5%
Wilmington
0.0%
Most of the major metro areas
continue to see solid job growth
Hickory-Lenoir
Asheville
3-M
C
c
P
a
r
e
A
g
i
v
M
h
t
n
o
-0.5%
Durham-Chapel Hill
Fayetteville
-1.0%
Contracting
-1.5%
-1.0%
Decelerating
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
Year-over-Year Percent Change
Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
35
3.0%

36. North Carolina: Population
North Carolina Population Growth by MSA
Percent Growth 2000-2012
Raleigh
Charlotte
Durham
The Raleigh and Charlotte
regions typically see the biggest
population gains
Asheville
Greensboro
Fayetteville
0%
10%
20%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
36
30%
40%
50%

37. North Carolina – Economic Outlook
The modest pace of economic growth should resume in the second half of the year.
Job growth will likely remain modest outside the major metro areas.
Leading Index
Outlook
 The highly cyclical nature of the North Carolina
North Carolina Leading Index
Three-Month Percent Change
8.0%
8.0%
6.0%
6.0%
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-4.0%
North Carolina: Oct @ 3.4%
-6.0%
-6.0%
82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
economy results in growth closely tracking U.S.
economic growth.
 Growth will likely pick-up in the months ahead
with modest job gains continuing.
 The state unemployment rate remains above the
national average.
 Job growth will be driven by the professional &
business services sector along with the leisure
and hospitality sector.
 Employment growth in the state will be
challenging over the next several years due to
the skills mismatch in the labor force.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
37

38. Wells Fargo Economic Outlook
Expectations for the Future
 A sustained modest pace of economic growth
 More of the same
 Business spending will remain modest
 Investment in equipment & software will normalize
What should we look for in the
U.S. economy in the next few
quarters?
 Consumer spending will slowly pick up
 Deleveraging and rebuilding of wealth continues
 The housing market continues to gradually improve
 Some regions will recover faster than others
 The employment picture will slowly continue to improve
 Structural issues remain
Wells Fargo Economics
38

39. Outlook Summary
Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Outlook
Actual
Forecast
2010
Real Gross Domestic Product
Personal Consumption
Business Fixed Investment
Inventory Change
Government Purchases
Residential Construction
Net Exports
2
Consumer Price Index
Corporate Profits Before Taxes
10-Year Treasury Note
2
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.5
2.0
2.5
58.2
0.1
-2.5
-462.6
1.6
1
2011
1.8
2.5
7.6
33.6
-3.2
0.5
-445.9
3.1
2.8
2.2
7.3
57.6
-1.0
12.9
-430.8
2.1
1.7
1.9
2.5
77.6
-2.0
13.6
-419.9
1.5
2.4
2.0
4.4
62.3
-0.5
12.1
-375.2
1.7
3.0
2.4
5.8
54.5
0.0
15.1
-348.7
2.2
25.0
7.9
7.0
4.3
5.2
5.9
3.22
2.78
1.80
2.47
3.10
3.35
Fo recast as o f: December 1 , 201
1
3
1
2
C ompound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter
Year-over-Year Percentage C hange
Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Wells Fargo Economics
39

40. Appendix

41. Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications
A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary
Recent Special Commentary
Date
Title
Authors
November-18
November-14
November-12
November-07
November-04
November-01
November-01
To view any of our past research
please visit:
http://www.wellsfargo.com/
economics
To join any of our research
distribution lists please visit:
http://www.wellsfargo.com/
economicsemail
2013 Holiday Sales Outlook
Inflation Chartbook: November 2013
Commercial Real Estate Chartbook: 2013
Apartment Fundamentals Revisited
Arizona Economic Outlook: November 2013
Results, Not Rhetoric: Rebuilding the Financial Face of Manufacturing
Housing Data Wrap-Up: October 2013
Aleman, Iqbal & Brown
Bullard, House & Griffiths
Vitner, Khan & Silverman
Khan
Vitner & Wolf
Silvia & Miller
Vitner, Khan & Silverman
October-31
October-30
October-28
October-28
October-28
October-25
October-25
October-24
October-21
October-21
October-18
October-17
October-16
October-16
October-16
October-14
October-09
October-07
October-03
October-03
October-02
October-02
October-02
October-02
October-01
October-01
October-01
Bank Lending: Uneven Improvement
Developing Economies and Crisis Vulnerability
Are Developing Economies Heading for a Crash?
Measuring the State of the U.S. Labor Market: A New Index
Are Developing Economies Heading for a Crash?
Labor Market Dynamics: More Job Openings and Quits
Pennsylvania Economic Outlook: October 2013
The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy: Part III
Can America Achieve Stronger Export Growth?
Shutdown Showdown Finale: A Short-Term Bridge to the Next Crisis
Nashville's Economy Strikes the Right Chord
Portland's Economy Shows Consistent Strength
Short-Run Disruption, Long-Run Imbalance
Is There Pent-Up Demand for Consumer Durables?
Household Debt Service Ratio: New Lows, Less Stress
Singapore GDP Stronger Than Expected in Q3
The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy: Part II
The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy: Part I
Asheville's Recovery Remains Solidly on Track
How Does North Carolina Stack Up Today?
Abenomics Getting Warm Reception from Japanese Business
Naples Four Years After the Recession
Housing Chartbook: September 2013
Will British Consumers Continue to Spend?
Bank Lending: A Perspective on Credit
Corporate Credit: Bond Finance and Power in Reserve
Shutdown Showdown: Deficit Remains the Issue
Silvia, Watt & Zachary
Bryson & Miller
Bryson & Miller
Silvia, Iqbal & Zachary
Bryson & Miller
Silvia & Zachary
Vitner & Wolf
Silvia, Brown & Zachary
Bryson, Quinlan & Griffiths
Silvia & Brown
Vitner & Wolf
Vitner & Silverman
Silvia & Brown
Bryson, Aleman & Brown
Silvia & Miller
Bryson
Silvia, Brown & Zachary
Silvia & Brown
Vitner & Wolf
Silvia, Brown & Griffiths
Quinlan
Vitner & Wolf
Vitner, Khan & Silverman
Bryson & Miller
Silvia & Watt
Silvia & Zachary
Silvia & Brown
Mexico: Tidbits of Better Times Ahead?
Strong Growth in Argentina in Q2 2013
Sequestering Economic Growth?
Why Has U.S. Labor Productivity Growth Slowed?
South Carolina 2013 Economic Outlook
Interest Rate Update: Post the Big Non-Taper
Consumer Credit: Critical Differences in Consumer Behavior
Florida Consumer Sentiment Falls Back in September
Does China Have a Debt Problem?
California Adds 29,100 Jobs, but Unemployment Rises Again
Aleman
Aleman
Silvia & Brown
Bryson & Watt
Vitner & Silverman
Silvia & Zachary
Silvia & Miller
Vitner & Silverman
Bryson
Vitner & Silverman
September-27
September-27
September-27
September-26
September-25
September-25
September-25
September-24
September-23
September-20
Wells Fargo Economics
41

42. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group
Global Head of Research and Economics
Economists
Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………… ……………azhar.iqbal@wellsfargo.com
Diane Schumaker-Krieg
………………… ….diane.schumaker@wellsfargo.com
Global Head of Research & Economics
……
Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………… ……………..tim.quinlan@wellsfargo.com
Michael A. Brown, Economist ……………… …
Chief Economist
John E. Silvia …
Sarah Watt House, Economist
...................... …
john.silvia@wellsfargo.com
.
Michael T. Wolf, Economist
.
Sara Silverman, Economic Analyst
Mackenzie Miller, Economic Analyst
sam.bullard@wellsfargo.com
Blaire Zachary, Economic Analyst
Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist ……nicholas.bennenbroek@wellsfargo.com
.
michael.t.wolf@wellsfargo.com
zachary.griffiths@wellsfargo.com
sara.silverman@wellsfargo.com
mackenzie.miller@wellsfargo.com
blaire.a.zachary@wellsfargo.com
Administrative Assistants
Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist… ………….eugenio.j.aleman@wellsfargo.com
Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist …
………………… …
Zachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst
mark.vitner@wellsfargo.com
Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....…… ….jay.bryson@wellsfargo.com
Sam Bullard, Senior Economist
…………… …………sarah.house@wellsfargo.com
Economic Analysts
Senior Economists
Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. .
michael.a.brown@wellsfargo.com
Peg Gavin, Executive Assistant.
. anika.khan@wellsfargo.com
Cyndi Burris, Senior Administrative Assistant
peg.gavin@wellsfargo.com
cyndi.burris@wellsfargo.com
Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but
not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wells Fargo Bank N.A., Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, Wells Fargo Securities Asia Limited and Wells Fargo
Securities (Japan) Co. Limited. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. (“WFS”) is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a futures commission merchant and is a member in
good standing of the National Futures Association. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. (“WFBNA”) is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a swap dealer and is a member in
good standing of the National Futures Association. WFS and WFBNA are generally engaged in the trading of futures and derivative products, any of which may be discussed within this
publication. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo
Securities, LLC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change
without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells
Fargo Securities, LLC is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company © 2013 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC.
SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE
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For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited (“WFSIL”). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the
Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this report has been approved by WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in
Financial Instruments Directive 2007. The FCA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, not will the Financial
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