https://innovatinginturbulenttimes.splashthat.com/
A conversation with Innovators, Startups Investors, Enterprises all challenged to innovate in turbulent times!
AI, Machine Learning and Data Science have seen a huge spike in interest and the innovations we have seen in the last decade have been tremendous. Fintech innovations have changed how we do business and healthcare innovations are promising innovations that can change how we diagnose, test and treat diseases. With uncertainties due to #Covid19 and volatilities in the markets, the trajectory and scope of innovations in these areas are being questioned.
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First QuantUniversity Online Summit -2020
1. AI/ML and Fintech
Innovating in Turbulent times
2020 Copyright QuantUniversity LLC.
Presented By:
Sri Krishnamurthy, CFA, CAP
First Online QuantUniversity Summit
04/09/2020
3.00pm EST
2. 2
QuantUniversity
• Analytics and Fintech Advisory
• AI/ML, Model Governance &
Fintech
• Trained 1000s of students in
Quantitative methods, Data Science
and Big Data & Fintech
• Programs
▫ Analytics Certificate Program
▫ Fintech Certification program
• Building
3. • Founder of QuantUniversity LLC.
• Advisory and Consultancy for Financial Analytics
• Prior Experience at MathWorks, Citigroup and
Endeca and 25+ financial services and energy
customers.
• Regular Columnist for the Wilmott Magazine
• Author of forthcoming book
“Financial Modeling: A case study approach”
published by Wiley
• Charted Financial Analyst and Certified Analytics
Professional
• Teaches Analytics in the Babson College and at
Northeastern University, Boston
Sri Krishnamurthy
Founder and CEO
3
11. 11
CHALLENGES UTILIZING AI & HPC SOFTWARE
OPTIMIZATIONINSTALLATION
Complex, time
consuming, and error-
prone
Requires expertise to
optimize framework
performance
IT can’t keep up with
frequent software
upgrades
Users limited to older
features and lower
performance
MAINTAINENCEPRODUCTIVITYEXPERTISE
Building AI-centric
solutions requires
expertise
12. 12
NGC – SIMPLIFYING AI & HPC WORKFLOWS
OPTIMIZED
SOFTWARE
FASTER
DEPLOYMENTS
Eliminates installations.
Simply Pull &
Run the app
Key DL frameworks
updated monthly
for perf optimization
Empowers users to
deploy the latest
versions with IT support
Better Insights and faster
time-to-solution
ZERO
MAINTENANCE
HIGHER
PRODUCTIVITY
EMBEDDING
EXPERTISE
Deliver greater value,
faster
13. 13
NGC: GPU-OPTIMIZED SOFTWARE HUB
Simplifying DL, ML and HPC Workflows
Innovate Faster
Deploy Anywhere
Simplify Deployments
Pre-trained Models
NLP, Classification, Object Detection & more
Model Training Scripts
NLP, Image Classification, Object Detection & more
NGC
Helm Charts
AI applications, K8s cluster, Registry
Containers
DL, ML, HPC
Industry SDKs
Medical Imaging, Intelligent Video Analytics
15. 15
WHY NGC CONTAINERS
Optimized for Performance
Scalable Performance
Designed for Enterprise & HPC environments
Run Anywhere
16. 16
GPU-OPTIMIZED SOFTWARE CONTAINERS
Over 50 Containers on NGC
DEEP LEARNING MACHINE LEARNING
HPC VISUALIZATION
INFERENCE
GENOMICS
NAMD | GROMACS | more
RAPIDS | H2O | moreTensorRT | DeepStream | more
ParabricksParaView | IndeX | more
TensorFlow | PyTorch | more
17. 17
CONTINUOUS PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT
Developers’ Software Optimizations Deliver Better Performance on the Same Hardware
Monthly DL Framework Updates & HPC Software Stack Optimizations Drive Performance
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
22000
19.03 19.10
Images/Second
MxNet
256 Batch Size | ResNet-50 Training v1.5| 16x V100 | DGX-
2
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
19.03 19.10
Images/Second PyTorch
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
19.05 20.01
Images/Second
TensorFlow
Speedup across Chroma, GROMACS, LAMMPS, QE, MILC, VASP,
SPECFEM3D, NAMD, AMBER, GTC, RTM | 4x V100 v. Dual-Skylake
| CUDA 9 for Mar '18 & Nov '18, CUDA 10 for Mar '19
15x
16x
17x
18x
Nov '18 Jun'18 Oct '19
HPC Applications
512 Batch Size | ResNet-50 Training v1.5| 16x V100 | DGX-
2
512 Batch Size | ResNet-50 Training v1.5| 16x V100 | DGX-
2
18. 18
THE NGC MODEL REGISTRY
Popular AI Models & Pre-Trained Models
Domain specific for video analytics, Language
models and medical imaging
Use transfer learning and your own data to quickly
create accurate AI
Available models: BERT, Bio-BERT, Organ & tumor
segmentation, x-ray classification, classification
and object detection for video analytics
20. 20
CLARA AI TOOLKIT
Build, Manage & Deploy AI for Radiology
TRAINING
TRANSFER LEARNING
AI-Assisted Annotation – Hours to Minutes | 10x Less Training Data Needed | 24 Pre-Trained Models
Reference Training and Deployment Pipelines | Available at developer.nvidia.com/clara-medical-imaging
AI
DEPLOYMENT
PRE-TRAINED
MODELS
AI-ASSISTED
ANNOTATION
23. 23
GET STARTED WITH NGC
Explore the NGC Registry for DL, ML & HPC
Deploy containers:
ngc.nvidia.com
Learn more about NGC offering:
nvidia.com/ngc
Technical information:
developer.nvidia.com
25. 25
PARABRICKS LICENSE
Free License (30 days)
Based on Genome Analysis Toolkit
Accelerated for GPUs. Analysis x50
faster. Taking hours instead of days.
Researchers sequencing: Virus and
Genome of people affected.
Free compute Cycles & Nvidia NCG
containers from partners: Oracle, Core
Scientic & NetApp, Tencent Cloud,
Groupware
26. 26
FOLDING@HOME TO FIGHT COVID-19
Folding@home is a collaborative project
focused on disease research
The project is managed by Washington
University in St. Louis School of Medicine
NVIDIA called on gamers to donate idle
compute
More than a million computers are now
on the network
Amassed enough donations to create a
crowd-sourced exascale supercomputer
27. 27
WHITE HOUSE HPC CONSORTIUM
Help accelerate the research detection
and treatment of COVID-19
Expertise across a variety of critical
domains, including AI, supercomputing,
drug discovery, molecular dynamics,
genomics, medical imaging and data
analytics
28. 28
HEALTHCARE COVID-19
• Free Compute for Parabricks:
• Roche Data Science Consortium
• Video Analytics
• Drug Discovery
• Medical Imaging
• Analytics
• Online virtual care
31. EMERGING STRONG FROM A
TURBULENT ECONOMY
ERDOGAN CESMELI, PHD, MBA
APRIL 9, 2020
The content in this presentation is solely the presenter’s view and not representing that of IBM.
32. “Bad companies are destroyed by crisis. Good companies
survive them. Great companies are improved by them.”
- Andy Grove, former CEO of Intel, outlined when he described what happens
to businesses in tumultuous times
2
36. “GOD, GRANT ME THE SERENITY TO ACCEPT THE
THINGS I CANNOT CHANGE THE COURAGE TO
CHANGE THE THINGS I CAN, AND THE WISDOM
TO KNOW THE DIFFERENCE.”
RYAN HOLIDAY, THE OBSTACLE IS THE WAY, 2014
6
37. MAJOR BANKRUPTCIES
• The overwhelming burden of the 2008
Financial crisis on the 20 biggest bankruptcies
is evident from the fact that 9 out of the 20
biggest bankruptcies (45%) were a direct
result of the unexpected event.
• The technological shift (e-commerce) is also
putting further pressure on the brick & mortar
stores with 38 retailers closing their businesses
in the U.S for the year 2017-18.
• The major reason for the bankruptcies was the
”health” of the company rather than the
external factor.
7
38. COMPANIES EMERGED IN THE MIDST OF CRISES
1. Proctor and Gamble (Panic of 1837)
2. Coors (Depression of 1873)
3. Standard Oil (Rockefeller took it over Feb 1865, final
year of the civil war)
4. UPS (Panic of 1907)
5. GM (Panic of 1907)
6. Fortune magazine (90 days after market crash of
1929)
7. United Airlines (1929)
8. Walt Disney Company (11 months of smooth ops, 12th
was the market crash of 1929)
9. HP (Great Depression, 1935)
10. FedEx (oil crisis of 1973)
11. Charles Schwab (market crash of 1974 - 1975)
12. Costco (recession in late 1970s)
13. Revlon (Great Depression, 1932)
14. Microsoft (recession in 1973 - 1975)
15. LinkedIn (2002, post dot com bubble)
“Half the companies in the Fortune 500 were started during a bear market or recession.”
-Ryan Holiday, The Obstacle is the Way, 2014
8
39. “WHEN AMERICA RACED TO SEND THE FIRST MEN
INTO SPACE, THEY TRAINED THE ASTRONAUTS IN
ONE SKILL MORE THAN IN ANY OTHER:
THE ART OF NOT PANICKING.”
RYAN HOLIDAY, THE OBSTACLE IS THE WAY, 2014
9
40. APPROACH: FOCUS
• Problem Solving at Heart
• Uniting around a Purpose
• Seeing the System Differently
• Unfreezing the Organization
• Creating a bias toward Action
Reference: Innovation in a Time of Crisis, 2020, Larry Clark, harvardbusiness.org
10
41. IBM’S RESPONSE TO COVID-19
ACCELERATE
DISCOVERY
• The COVID-19 High Performance
Computing (HPC) Consortium
• World Community Grid
• Deep Search Service
• Explore Drug Candidates
• IBM Functional Genomics Platform
TRUSTED
INFORMATION
• Incident Tracking from the Weather
Channel
• Micromedex & DynaMed for
Clinicians
• Watson Assistance for Citizens
RESILIENCY &
ADAPTATION
• Trusted business intelligence
• Call for Code
• Resources for Remote Learning
Reference: https://www.ibm.com/thought-leadership/covid19/
11
42. IBM #1: EXPLORE DRUG
CANDIDATES
1. Select a biological target and filter
generated molecules by important
characteristics
2. View related molecules and nearest
match in PubChem
3. See relationships among molecules
4. Save and export your findings for
further evaluation
12
43. IBM #2: INCIDENT
TRACKING-WEATHER
CHANNEL
• COVID-19 Trusted Data Fabric
• The Weather Channel brings together
trusted data from governments, the
WHO and CDC to give over 300
million monthly visitors access to
detailed virus tracking.
• Citizens can see what’s happening in
their county.
13
44. IBM #3: CALL FOR CODE
• With the unprecedented effect of COVID-19,
unite to help communities across the globe
deal with the impact of the greatest crisis of
modern times.
• Use open source technology in the cloud to
build solutions that can provide crisis
communication, remote education, and
community cooperation.
• Create an application that makes an
immediate and lasting impact in communities
around the world by using AI, IoT, data science,
and the latest IBM Cloud™ open source
development platforms.
14
45. “LIFE SPEEDS ON THE BOLD AND FAVORS THE
BRAVE.”
INSPIRED BY P. T. BARNUM
“FORTUNE ALWAYS FAVORS THE BRAVE, AND NEVER HELPS A MAN WHO DOES NOT HELP HIMSELF.”
15
46. THIS IS THE SLIDE TO REMEMBER
• Perception
• Action
• Will
“Too many people think that great victories like Grant’s and Edison’s came from a flash of insight. That
they cracked the problem with pure genius. In fact, it was the slow pressure, repeated from many
different angles, the elimination of so many other more promising options, that slowly and surely
churned the solution to the top of the pile.”
- The Obstacle is the Way, 2014, by Ryan Holiday
16
48. 31
The State of FinTech During COVID-19: Implications for Business
Operations, Funding, M&A and IPOs
Talk 3
Dushyant (D) Shahrawat, CFA
49. www.rblt.com 324 0 W A L L S T R E E T , N E W Y O R K , N Y
COVID-19’s Impact on Private FinTech
Rosenblatt Securities FinTech Investment Banking
Apr 9th 2020
www.rblt.com
Dushyant “D” Shahrawat | Director
FinTech Investment Banking
Rosenblatt Securities
50. www.rblt.com 33
Rosenblatt’s FinTech Index has reversed its 12-month trend of outperforming the S&P
FinTech Index Composition – 26 companies in InsurTech, Capital Markets, Payments, Online Lending, Personal Finance
Equally Weighted – VIRT, CBOE, EVER, QNST, GWRE, CSLT, LC, QTWO, GDOT, TREE, GSKY, SYF, TRU, BKI, PYPL, SQ, EFX, EVOP, IIIV, CDLX, ENVA, ELVT, FICO, INTU, ZUO, TW
F i n Te c h Pe r fo r m a n c e R e l a t i v e To T h e B r o a d M a r ke t I n d e x
1-Year return ↓ 20 % ↓ 10 % ↓ 20 %
52 week Peak ↑ 21 % ↑ 29% ↑ 49 %
Peak → Trough ↓ 34 % ↓ 30 % ↓ 47 %
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20
S&P 500 NASDAQ Composite FinTech Index
Peak à Trough = [Peak price (-) 3/24 closing price ] / Peak price
49%
29%
21%
52. www.rblt.com
2 3 %
1 3 %
6 5 %
US-based Publicly Listed
FinTech
US-based Private
FinTech Unicorn
14.2 x
3.6 x
6.9 x
35
Unicorns may face the biggest valuation drop followed by funding
pressure on early stage companies
What stage of FinTech growth will be most impacted?
Numbers indicate the percentage of investors who
say a particular stage would be impacted
Early Stage
(Series A – Series B)
23% of investors
surveyed feel Early
Stage companies will
take second-largest hit
in valuation
A
Late Stage
(Series C – Series D)
13% of investors
surveyed feel Late
Stage companies will
take the least hit in
valuation
B
Unicorns
(> $1B Valuation)
65% of investors
surveyed feel Unicorns
will take the greatest hit
in valuation
C
Median Valuation / Sales
As of
Feb 20, 2020
As of
Mar 20, 2020
US-based FinTech Unicorns 14.2 x ??
US-based Publicly
Listed FinTechs
6.9 x 3.6 x
Note: Y – Axis : Logarithmic Scale
Source: Rosenblatt Survey, Oct 2019
How will the valuation of Unicorns be impacted?
Median Sales multiple for FinTech Unicorns and
Publicly listed FinTechs
55. www.rblt.com
B u s i n e s s
M o d e l
Transaction Volumes
R e v e n u e s
Transaction-based Revenue
Cost of Funds
Net Margins
E x p e n s e s
Cost of Acquisition
Operating Costs
C o r e
D r i v e r s
Transaction Volumes
Cost of Acquisition
R i s k s
A sharp drop in transaction volumes
CAC doesn’t decline proportionate to loss in sales
38
CHALLENGER BANKS: Will face a double whammy from lower
transaction volumes and pressure to reduce customer acquisition costs
P r e s s u r e o n r e v e n u e a s
v o l u m e s d e c l i n e d u e t o
l o w e r d i s c r e t i o n a r y
s p e n d i n g
C o s t o f F u n d s m a y n o t
d e c l i n e p r o p o r t i o n a t e t o
I n c u m b e n t b a n k s
w e a k e n i n g t h e
c o m p e t i t i v e p o s i t i o n
N e e d t o r e - b u n d l e m o r e
s e r v i c e s t o m o n e t i z e
c u r r e n t c u s t o m e r b a s e
1
56. www.rblt.com
B u s i n e s s
M o d e l
Net Interest Margin
R e v e n u e s
Interest Income
Interest Expense
Net Interest Margin
E x p e n s e s
Cost of Acquisition
Charge offs
Operating Costs
C o r e
D r i v e r s
Net Interest Margins
Cost of Acquisitions
Charge offs
R i s k s
Delinquencies and default rates rise significantly
CAC doesn’t decline proportionately to the decline
in Net Interest Margin
39
DIGITAL LENDERS: A perfect storm of slower loan growth, compressed
NIMs, and rising defaults/delinquencies
P r e s s u r e o n N e t I n t e r e s t
M a r g i n a s I n t e r e s t I n c o m e
d e c l i n e s f a s t e r t h a n
I n t e r e s t E x p e n s e
D e f a u l t r a t e s a n d
d e l i n q u e n c i e s r i s e ,
e s p e c i a l l y f o r n e w A l t
L e n d i n g F i n T e c h s
A l t D a t a a n d M a c h i n e
L e a r n i n g - b a s e d l e n d i n g
a l g o r i t h m s f a c e t h e i r f i r s t
s e r i o u s t e s t
2
57. www.rblt.com
B u s i n e s s
M o d e l
% AUM + Service Fees
R e v e n u e s
% AUM
Service Fees
Gross Revenue
E x p e n s e s
Cost of Acquisition
Operating Costs
C o r e
D r i v e r s
Asset Performance
Capital Inflows
R i s k s
40% decline in all asset classes will crimp AUMs/Fees
Retail investors will become risk averse due to volatility
40
ROBO ADVISORS: Declining AUMs and investors turning risk averse
threatens growth and profitability
S a l e s s u f f e r d u e t o
d e c l i n i n g A U M l e v e l s a n d
l o w e r s e r v i c e f e e s
R o b o a d v i s o r s s t r u g g l e t o
l o w e r h i g h m a r k e t i n g c o s t s
( C A C ) t h e y h a v e b e e n u s i n g
t o p o w e r c l i e n t a c q u i s i t i o n
T r a d i t i o n a l w e a l t h
m a n a g e r s g a i n a
c o m p e t i t i v e a d v a n t a g e
o v e r r o b o a d v i s e r s
3
58. www.rblt.com
B u s i n e s s
M o d e l
Transaction Volumes
R e v e n u e s
Commissions
Prime Brokerage, Clearing and Exchange Fees
Net Trading Profits
E x p e n s e s
Trading Infrastructure
Operating Costs
C o r e
D r i v e r s
Volumes, Volatility
Extent of Revenue Capture (Spreads)
R i s k s
High volatility driving larger Spreads = Profits
Credit issues can precipitate liquidity and solvency problems
41
CAPITAL MARKETS: Enjoying the fruits of higher volatility, but credit
risks lurk behind that may cause liquidity/solvency problems
G r o w i n g v o l a t i l i t y m e a n s
w i d e r s p r e a d s t h a t b o o s t
r e v e n u e
F i r m s a r e e n j o y i n g h i g h e r
t r a d e v o l u m e s , b u t t h e g o o d
t i m e s m a y n o t l a s t
U n m e t M a r g i n c a l l s m a y
l e a d t o c r e d i t r i s k s w h i c h
t u r n i n t o l i q u i d i t y a n d
s o l v e n c y p r o b l e m s
4
59. www.rblt.com
B u s i n e s s
M o d e l
Transaction Volumes
R e v e n u e s
Transaction Fees
Network Commissions
Net Margins
E x p e n s e s
Merchant Acquisition Costs
Operating Cost
C o r e
D r i v e r s
Volumes
Merchant Acquisition Costs
R i s k s
An economic crisis could dampen transaction volumes
CAC may not adjust sufficiently to offset revenue decline
42
PAYMENTS: Transaction volumes may come under pressure, but
enterprise Payments remains a bright spot
U n c e r t a i n t y i n
t r a n s a c t i o n v o l u m e s d u e
t o t h e l o c k d o w n a n d a
p r o l o n g e d r e c e s s i o n
B i g b o o s t t o a l l t y p e s o f
d i g i t a l p a y m e n t s , a n d
a c c e l e r a t i o n o f c o n t a c t l e s s
p a y m e n t s
T h e l o n g - t e r m v a l u e
p r o p o s i t i o n o f ‘ e m b e d d e d
p a y m e n t s ’ r e m a i n s i n t a c t
5
60. www.rblt.com
B u s i n e s s
M o d e l
Underwriting Margins
R e v e n u e s
Gross Premiums
Underwriting Expense
Underwriting Profit
E x p e n s e s
Losses Incurred
Operating Cost
C o r e
D r i v e r s
Insurance Premium Rates
Loss Ratios
R i s k s
Most insurers are immune from Pandemic claims
Boost to demand for traditional insurance and new types of
coverage (event/pandemics)
43
INSURTECH: COVID-19 won’t impact claims much, while demand for
new types of coverage will spur growth
U s a g e - b a s e d i n s u r a n c e
p r e m i u m s w i l l d e c l i n e d u e
t o l o c k d o w n a n d r e s t r i c t e d
m o v e m e n t
L i f e & H e a l t h w i l l h a v e
C O V I D - 1 9 l i a b i l i t i e s , w h i l e
P r o p e r t y & C a s u a l t y h a v e
e x c l u s i o n s f o r p a n d e m i c s
T h e d e m a n d t o c o v e r
e m e r g i n g r i s k s ( e . g . ,
c l i m a t e c h a n g e ,
p a n d e m i c s ) w i l l g e t a
b o o s t
6
62. www.rblt.com
Here’s a checklist of actions for Entrepreneurs and Investors
Ensure Cash runway
Secure funding, early
Get a solid handle on sales pipeline
Optimize marketing spend
Right size headcount
1
2
3
4
5
6 Manage capital spend
FINTECH CEOs INVESTORS
Stress test portfolio
Prepare alternate exit options
Manage co-investors, LP relationships
1
2
3
63. www.rblt.com
Important implications of COVID-19 and the economic decline
A black swan event like Covid-19 will affect private markets differently than did the 2008
Global Financial Crisis that had structural issues, or the 2000 "dot com" bubble that had
frothy valuations ascribed to unproven business models
Overall, the financial services industry is healthy - strong balance sheets should help weather
the current crises much better than prior downturns
Private markets investments don't see the immediate markdowns that their public peers do
during a crises, but they are not immune from write-downs, especially if the slowdown lasts
more than a couple of quarters
Different FinTech subsectors will fare differently. Balance-sheet-intensive businesses (Digital
Lending, Robo-Advisory) will be at a greater risk relative to Transaction-volume businesses
(Payments, Capital Markets, Transaction Banking). Consumer-facing models (B2B) will see an
immediate slowdown relative to enterprise businesses (B2B)
Not surprisingly, better capitalized and more established FinTechs should fare better and
may actually benefit from decreased competition as less-proven peers struggle
1
2
3
4
5
6
Incumbents with stronger balance sheets, better brand names and more diversified
distribution will reassert their power, and should become active in acquiring FinTechs who
have struggled but have good products, IP and solid management teams
64. www.rblt.com 474 0 W A L L S T R E E T , N E W Y O R K , N Y
COVID-19’s Impact on Private FinTech
Rosenblatt Securities FinTech Investment Banking
Apr 9th 2020
www.rblt.com
Dushyant “D” Shahrawat | Director
FinTech Investment Banking
Rosenblatt Securities
68. 51
Digital delivery models that leveraged cloud from
the ground up as a means of delivery, online
learning, paperless services, communication
platforms are all seeing the - "I told you so"
moment!
Business model for delivery matters today!
69. 52
Pack up and leave?
Stop dreaming big?
Park the moonshot ideas for a summer day
and go back to basics?
Take a pivot?
So what should an entrepreneur do now?
71. Stagnant Businesses in sustenance mode ;
Not ready to weather storms
Market
Ready
Ready to capitalize on today’s
market conditions
Moonshot Futuristic-Not ready for today’s
markets
Innovation in Turbulent Times
Cash Position
Innovationstage
Calibrate!
Stay the course
Accelerate!
Amplify
Wake up!
Pivot
Too late
Pack up!
Sweat it!
Raise Money
Salvage!
Cut your losses
Low Funded
Stagnant
Market
Ready
Moonshot
Innovation Stage
2020 Copyright QuantUniversity LLC.
76. Thank you!
Sri Krishnamurthy, CFA, CAP
Founder and CEO
QuantUniversity LLC.
srikrishnamurthy
www.QuantUniversity.com
Contact
Information, data and drawings embodied in this presentation are strictly a property of QuantUniversity LLC. and shall not be
distributed or used in any other publication without the prior written consent of QuantUniversity LLC.
59