Resilient Risk Management
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Claire Souch, VP, Model Solutions at RMS, shares her expert perspective on modeling challenges, resiliency and the path to a resilient risk management strategy.
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Resilient Risk Management
- 1. RESILIENT RISK MANAGEMENT Claire Souch, PhD VP, Model Solutions ©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
- 2. MODELING CHALLENGES • Too many surprises OPERATIONS UNDERWRITING PORTFOLIO • Can’t control key MODELS MANAGEMENT assumptions • Lack of insight into drivers of risk • Doesn’t facilitate understanding by all ©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
- 3. MODELS IMPROVE OVER TIME, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS 250 yr. loss uncertainty ©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
- 4. HOW RESILIENT Will I fall off a ARE YOU? cliff? Maximize return - optimize to top of a pinnacle? Minimise regret - search out stable plateaus? ©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
- 5. In the RMS development of catastrophe THE MARKET models, which explicitly acknowledges that IS CALLING FOR A NEW CATASTROPHE RISK IS PARADIGM CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP UNCERTAINTY LEARNING IS ON-GOING ONE SIZE DOESNT ALWAYS FIT ALL ©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
- 6. In the Client understanding and use of cat THE MARKET models IS CALLING FOR A NEW PARADIGM UNDERSTANDING IMPLIED BETS ADAPT QUICKLY TO NEW INFORMATION OWNING A VIEW OF RISK ©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
- 7. THE PATHS TO RESILIENT RISK MANAGEMENT DIAGNOSTIC UNDER- VIEWS AND STANDING SENSITIVITY IMPLIED BETS TESTS POST EVENT, ADAPTING TO INTERIM ONGOING VIEWS, OWN LEARNING EXPERIENCE ADJUSTMENTS OWNING THE ALTERNATIVES VIEW OF RISK OPEN PLATFORM ©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
- 8. RMS – PROVIDING INDUSTRY REFERENCE VIEW Build world-class (and increasingly transparent) models with an official RMS reference point ©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
- 9. PROVISION RMS REFERENCE MULTIPLE VIEWS… IN A SINGLE, FAST, AUDITABLE DIAGNOSTIC “There is no single PLATFORM ADJUSTED correct approach” ABI Industry Good Practice for Catastrophe Modeling, Dec 2011 ALTERNATIVE YOUR OWN ©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
- 10. OPEN EXPOSURE MODELING = ACCESS TO MODEL COMPONENTS HAZARD PLA CONDUCT SENSITIVITY TESTS LEVERAGE YOUR OWN CLAIMS DATA AND RESEARCH LOSS RATES GAIN COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE MAINTAIN AN AUDIT TRAIL VULNERABILITY ©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
- 11. UTILISE MULTIPLE MODELS COMPARE MODELS SIDE BY SIDE FILL GAPS IN THE RMS MODEL SUITE RMS MODELS YOUR OWN IMPORT RESULTS MODELS FROM OTHER MODELS ©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
- 12. BLEND MODEL RESULTS CHOSE ONE MODEL OR BLEND MODEL RESULTS RMS(one) ENABLES YOUR BEST PRACTICE BLEND RESULTS ©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.
- 13. “Risk management, we believe, should be about lessening the impact of events we don’t understand” - Naseem Taleb, Harvard Business Review ©2013 Risk Management Solutions, Inc.