This is a presentation delivered by Brigadier Richard Stanford and Professor Jonathan Githens-Mazer, at the RUSI Defence Information Superiority Conference 2013.

1. 11
Multi-Dimensional Manoeuvre
in the Contemporary Operating Environment
Professor Jonathan Githens-Mazer
Associate Professor in Ethno-Politics, Institute of Arab
and Islamic Studies, Exeter University
Brigadier Richard Stanford MBE
Chief Joint Fires and Influence, HQ ARRC

2. 22
What is HQ ARRC?
• UK’s primary LAND contribution to NATO
• Held at permanent readiness with lead elements always at
5 days NTM or less
• During 2013 HQ ARRC is NATO Response Force (NRF)
Land Component at shorter NTM
• Ability to experiment and develop concepts through
exercises
• Draw on operational experience from 16 nations

3. 33
Future Character of Conflict
• Contested
• Congested
• Cluttered
• Connected
• Constrained
• How to gain an advantage relative to the enemy in this
environment?
• Technological advantage likely to be eroded / countered
• Rapid expansion of Information environment

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Multi-Dimensional Manoeuvre
• Gain advantage over an opponent in the cyber and
information dimensions as well as land, maritime and air
• Attacking the opponent’s will and cohesion.
• Multi-dimensional tempo that aims to achieve battle-
winning shock and surprise.
• Information operations may be more decisive at times than
ground based tactical activity

5. 55
OODA Loop

6. 66
Big Data
• Need to UNDERSTAND the context, content and
background to the production of the data
• Large amounts of data, when interpreted correctly with
contextual awareness and cultural understanding can
produce very insightful results - quickly
• SOCMINT is one type of INT – all types are required to
develop balanced UNDERSTANDING
– No silver bullet but adoption o Big Data is needed
• Some commentators state a recent over reliance on
SIGINT at the expense of HUMINT and comprehension of
local populations. SOCMINT can complement both SIGINT
and HUMINT

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Information Operations
• UNDERSTAND is only one side
• Importance of Perception
– C20th wars of national survival – clear win and lose.
– C21st conflict resolution shaped by perception and public opinion
• How use new media to communicate our message?
• How generate tempo in information operations?
• Can the tenets of Mission Command be applied to
Information Operations?
• What are our vulnerabilities which will be attacked?
– different values on human life and proportionality?

8. 88
Information Techniques and Contingency
• How to develop rapid UNDERSTANDING of an area or
region in line with readiness?
– Horizon scanning
– Regional and thematic experts – upstream knowledge
• How does Big Data enable us to make up for the speed vs
depth?
• How do we use Big Data to identify enemy weakness and
mask our own?
• Use of Big Data to measure our own effectiveness much
more quickly

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Applicatons of Expert Calibrated Big
Data (I)
• Potential for profound academic (yawn!) methodological
transformation at moment
– New opportunities to embrace complexity within massive open-
ended dynamic systems (snapshot and observation in motion)
• Public Health
• Climate Change
• Urban Environments
• Big Data allows for shift from deductive logic to inductive
logic – constant adjustment of probabilistic expectations
against a Criterion of Adequacy
– Not correlations – real time adjustment to (potentially infinite) set of
probabilistically possible explanations
– Moving away from thinking about cause and effect and towards flow
and interaction

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Applicatons of Expert Calibrated Big
Data (I)
• Using Big Data via Bayesian influenced pattern
searching and expert calibration:
• Does not discount the unimaginable
• Allows the data (eventually) in real time, to guide
knowing/understanding and insight/foresight (JDP 04)
with respect to requisite quanta of data necessary to
analyse a given Contemporary Operating Environment
(COE)
• Big Data as complement to existing Intelligence to allow for
better/deeper understanding (insight/foresight) for
Contingency Policy/Planning and to measure effectiveness
of Information Operations?
• Starting points: Janus Headed Approach - case study
research and DCDC Future Character of Conflict (2010)

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Conclusion
• Information superiority = gaining advantage over an
opponent in the cyber and information dimensions
• OODA loop valid but
– Speed of rotation
– Amount of information to understand
• Big Data on its own of no use, has to be interpreted in
context of culture, language and nuance
• New tactics and techniques required to respond to the
technological changes
• Using momentum of technological change and
methodological innovation to contribute to contingency
readiness and measure success of Influence in real time
and reflective of COE

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Questions?