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Ray S. Kim, Ph.D.
 “Violence is actual, attempted, or
threatened harm to a person or persons.
Threats of harm must be clear and
unambiguous rather than vague statements
of hostility. Violence is behavior which
obviously is likely to cause harm to another
person or persons. Behavior which would be
fear-inducing to the average person may be
counted as violence.”
 Christopher D. Webster, Kevin S. Douglas,
Derek Eaves, Stephen D. Hart
 Unstructured Clinical Opinion
- no specific criteria (i.e., “gut feeling”)
 Structured Clinical Opinion
- list of risk factors believed to be important
 Empirically Guided Clinical Opinion
- list of risk factors supported by research (e.g.,
HCR-20)
 Pure Actuarial Assessment
- rating scale that generates a probability
estimate for violence risk (e.g., VRAG)
 Clinically Adjusted Actuarial Assessment
- actuarial and clinical data (best technique)
 Static Risk Factors – Historical or stable
factors which do not change (e.g., previous
violence, major mental illness, substance
abuse, prior supervision failure).
 Dynamic Risk Factors – Clinical or
changeable factors which can worsen or
improve (e.g., psychiatric symptoms,
impulsivity, insight, responsiveness to
treatment).
 Age – Late adolescence to early adulthood,
drops after age 40
 Gender – Male
 Lower socio-economic status
 Unstable family environment
 Peer culture
 Substance abuse – Single most robust factor
for violence
 Prior criminal history
 History of repeated acts of violence –
Second most robust factor for violence
 Conduct clinical interviews (i.e.,
psychiatric, psychological, social).
 Review available records (i.e., clinical
records, police reports, arrest record).
 Collect other collateral information (e.g.,
family, friends, mental health providers).
 Monitor behavior on the unit (e.g., physical
aggression, cooperation with staff,
compliance with unit rules).
 Administer violence risk assessments (e.g.,
HCR-20, VRAG, PCL-R).
 Checklist of risk factors for violent behavior.
 Scale consists of 20 items, organized around
10 past (Historical), 5 present (Clinical), and
5 future (Risk Management) factors.
 Administration consists of interview, record
review, collateral information, and testing.
 Empirically Guided Clinical Opinion.
 User qualifications include expertise in
conducting individual assessments and in the
study of violence.
 Assessors must determine the presence
versus absence of each of the 20 individual
risk factors. Items are coded on a 3-point
scale (i.e., 0 = No, 1 = Maybe, 2 = Yes).
 Assessors must integrate the item-level
information to reach a final decision about
risk for violence (i.e., Low, Moderate, or
High).
 Previous violence.
 Young age at first violent incident.
 Relationship instability.
 Employment problems.
 Substance use problems.
 Major mental illness.
 Psychopathy.
 Early maladjustment.
 Personality disorder.
 Prior supervision failure.
 Lack of insight.
 Negative attitudes.
 Active symptoms of major mental illness.
 Impulsivity.
 Unresponsive to treatment.
 Plans lack feasibility.
 Exposure to destabilizers.
 Lack of personal support.
 Noncompliance with remediation attempts.
 Stress.
 Developed to assess violent recidivism
among mentally disordered offenders.
 Research has shown that it applies equally to
sex offenders (Rice & Harris, 1997).
 Contains 12 items scored on the basis of
clinical records as opposed to interviews or
questionnaires.
 Pure Actuarial Assessment.
 Did not live with both parents to age 16.
 Elementary school maladjustment.
 History of alcohol problems.
 Never married.
 Criminal history of nonviolent offenses.
 Failure on prior conditional release.
 Young age at index offense.
 Victim injury.
 No female victim.
 Any personality disorder.
 No Schizophrenia diagnosis.
 High PCL-R score.
 “Human predators who coldly, callously, and
ruthlessly use charm, deceit, manipulation,
threats, intimidation, and violence to
dominate and control others and to satisfy
their own selfish needs and desires. Others
exist only as emotional, physical, and
financial prey with no rights of their own.”
 Robert D. Hare, Ph.D.
 Originally, the PCL-R was designed as a rating
scale for the assessment of psychopathy in
male forensic populations.
 Now, it is often used to assess the likelihood
of future recidivism and violent offending.
 Consists of 20 items scored on the basis of a
semi-structured interview and collateral
information.
 Items are divided into 2 factors (i.e.,
Interpersonal/Affective, Social Deviance).
 Glibness/Superficial Charm (F1).
 Grandiose Sense of Self Worth (F1).
 Need for Stimulation/Proneness to Boredom
(F2).
 Pathological Lying (F1).
 Conning/Manipulative (F1).
 Lack of Remorse or Guilt (F1).
 Shallow Affect (F1).
 Callous/Lack of Empathy (F1).
 Parasitic Lifestyle (F2).
 Poor Behavioral Controls (F2).
 Promiscuous Sexual Behavior.
 Early Behavior Problems (F2).
 Lack of Realistic Long-term Goals (F2).
 Impulsivity (F2).
 Irresponsibility (F2).
 Failure to Accept Responsibility for Own
Actions (F1).
 Many Short-term Marital Relationships.
 Juvenile Delinquency (F2).
 Revocation of Conditional Release (F2).
 Criminal Versatility.
 Classification of Violence Risk (COVR)
 Short-Term Assessment of Risk and
Treatability (START)
 STATIC-99
 Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool –
Revised (MnSOST-R)
 Reduces staff and patient injuries by
providing guidance in managing risk.
 Improves decision making (e.g., placement,
privileges).
 Helps to expedite discharges by providing
more direction in treatment.
 Reassures community agencies regarding
management of risk (i.e., risk factors have
been addressed).
 Minimizes relapse and recidivism in the
community (i.e., prevents future violence).
 Structure treatment plans around risk factors
for violence.
 Risk factors should be the identified problem
areas in treatment plans (e.g., hallucinations,
delusions, mood lability, impulsivity).
 Reduce risk factors through various treatment
modalities (e.g., medication management,
individual counseling, substance abuse groups).
 By addressing risk factors, the goal is to stabilize
the patient’s clinical condition, which lowers
risk for dangerous behavior.
 Risk Factors for Violence
- i.e., managed adequately?
 Compliance with Treatment
- e.g., taking medication?, participating in
counseling?, attending groups?
 Clinical Stability
- i.e., extended period of stability?
 Behavioral Stability
- e.g., aggressive?, cooperative?
 Identify a stable living arrangement (e.g.,
halfway house, group home).
 Set up funding arrangements (e.g., SSI).
 Identify a community agency to provide
mental health services and/or substance
abuse treatment.
 Share the treatment plan with the
community agency, including risk reduction
strategies.
 Establish sources of healthy psychosocial
support (e.g., family, friends).
 Violence is actual, attempted, or threatened
harm to others.
 Integrate both actuarial and clinical information
when assessing for risk of violence.
 Utilize multiple sources of information when
identifying risk factors.
 The most robust risk factors include substance
abuse, previous violence, and psychopathy.
 Important goals of risk assessment include better
decision making, less recidivism, and community
safety.
Risk.Assessment.2015

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Risk.Assessment.2015

  • 1. Ray S. Kim, Ph.D.
  • 2.
  • 3.  “Violence is actual, attempted, or threatened harm to a person or persons. Threats of harm must be clear and unambiguous rather than vague statements of hostility. Violence is behavior which obviously is likely to cause harm to another person or persons. Behavior which would be fear-inducing to the average person may be counted as violence.”  Christopher D. Webster, Kevin S. Douglas, Derek Eaves, Stephen D. Hart
  • 4.  Unstructured Clinical Opinion - no specific criteria (i.e., “gut feeling”)  Structured Clinical Opinion - list of risk factors believed to be important  Empirically Guided Clinical Opinion - list of risk factors supported by research (e.g., HCR-20)  Pure Actuarial Assessment - rating scale that generates a probability estimate for violence risk (e.g., VRAG)  Clinically Adjusted Actuarial Assessment - actuarial and clinical data (best technique)
  • 5.  Static Risk Factors – Historical or stable factors which do not change (e.g., previous violence, major mental illness, substance abuse, prior supervision failure).  Dynamic Risk Factors – Clinical or changeable factors which can worsen or improve (e.g., psychiatric symptoms, impulsivity, insight, responsiveness to treatment).
  • 6.  Age – Late adolescence to early adulthood, drops after age 40  Gender – Male  Lower socio-economic status  Unstable family environment  Peer culture  Substance abuse – Single most robust factor for violence  Prior criminal history  History of repeated acts of violence – Second most robust factor for violence
  • 7.
  • 8.  Conduct clinical interviews (i.e., psychiatric, psychological, social).  Review available records (i.e., clinical records, police reports, arrest record).  Collect other collateral information (e.g., family, friends, mental health providers).  Monitor behavior on the unit (e.g., physical aggression, cooperation with staff, compliance with unit rules).  Administer violence risk assessments (e.g., HCR-20, VRAG, PCL-R).
  • 9.  Checklist of risk factors for violent behavior.  Scale consists of 20 items, organized around 10 past (Historical), 5 present (Clinical), and 5 future (Risk Management) factors.  Administration consists of interview, record review, collateral information, and testing.  Empirically Guided Clinical Opinion.
  • 10.  User qualifications include expertise in conducting individual assessments and in the study of violence.  Assessors must determine the presence versus absence of each of the 20 individual risk factors. Items are coded on a 3-point scale (i.e., 0 = No, 1 = Maybe, 2 = Yes).  Assessors must integrate the item-level information to reach a final decision about risk for violence (i.e., Low, Moderate, or High).
  • 11.  Previous violence.  Young age at first violent incident.  Relationship instability.  Employment problems.  Substance use problems.  Major mental illness.  Psychopathy.  Early maladjustment.  Personality disorder.  Prior supervision failure.
  • 12.  Lack of insight.  Negative attitudes.  Active symptoms of major mental illness.  Impulsivity.  Unresponsive to treatment.
  • 13.  Plans lack feasibility.  Exposure to destabilizers.  Lack of personal support.  Noncompliance with remediation attempts.  Stress.
  • 14.  Developed to assess violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders.  Research has shown that it applies equally to sex offenders (Rice & Harris, 1997).  Contains 12 items scored on the basis of clinical records as opposed to interviews or questionnaires.  Pure Actuarial Assessment.
  • 15.  Did not live with both parents to age 16.  Elementary school maladjustment.  History of alcohol problems.  Never married.  Criminal history of nonviolent offenses.  Failure on prior conditional release.  Young age at index offense.  Victim injury.  No female victim.  Any personality disorder.  No Schizophrenia diagnosis.  High PCL-R score.
  • 16.
  • 17.  “Human predators who coldly, callously, and ruthlessly use charm, deceit, manipulation, threats, intimidation, and violence to dominate and control others and to satisfy their own selfish needs and desires. Others exist only as emotional, physical, and financial prey with no rights of their own.”  Robert D. Hare, Ph.D.
  • 18.  Originally, the PCL-R was designed as a rating scale for the assessment of psychopathy in male forensic populations.  Now, it is often used to assess the likelihood of future recidivism and violent offending.  Consists of 20 items scored on the basis of a semi-structured interview and collateral information.  Items are divided into 2 factors (i.e., Interpersonal/Affective, Social Deviance).
  • 19.  Glibness/Superficial Charm (F1).  Grandiose Sense of Self Worth (F1).  Need for Stimulation/Proneness to Boredom (F2).  Pathological Lying (F1).  Conning/Manipulative (F1).  Lack of Remorse or Guilt (F1).  Shallow Affect (F1).  Callous/Lack of Empathy (F1).  Parasitic Lifestyle (F2).  Poor Behavioral Controls (F2).
  • 20.  Promiscuous Sexual Behavior.  Early Behavior Problems (F2).  Lack of Realistic Long-term Goals (F2).  Impulsivity (F2).  Irresponsibility (F2).  Failure to Accept Responsibility for Own Actions (F1).  Many Short-term Marital Relationships.  Juvenile Delinquency (F2).  Revocation of Conditional Release (F2).  Criminal Versatility.
  • 21.  Classification of Violence Risk (COVR)  Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START)  STATIC-99  Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool – Revised (MnSOST-R)
  • 22.
  • 23.  Reduces staff and patient injuries by providing guidance in managing risk.  Improves decision making (e.g., placement, privileges).  Helps to expedite discharges by providing more direction in treatment.  Reassures community agencies regarding management of risk (i.e., risk factors have been addressed).  Minimizes relapse and recidivism in the community (i.e., prevents future violence).
  • 24.  Structure treatment plans around risk factors for violence.  Risk factors should be the identified problem areas in treatment plans (e.g., hallucinations, delusions, mood lability, impulsivity).  Reduce risk factors through various treatment modalities (e.g., medication management, individual counseling, substance abuse groups).  By addressing risk factors, the goal is to stabilize the patient’s clinical condition, which lowers risk for dangerous behavior.
  • 25.  Risk Factors for Violence - i.e., managed adequately?  Compliance with Treatment - e.g., taking medication?, participating in counseling?, attending groups?  Clinical Stability - i.e., extended period of stability?  Behavioral Stability - e.g., aggressive?, cooperative?
  • 26.  Identify a stable living arrangement (e.g., halfway house, group home).  Set up funding arrangements (e.g., SSI).  Identify a community agency to provide mental health services and/or substance abuse treatment.  Share the treatment plan with the community agency, including risk reduction strategies.  Establish sources of healthy psychosocial support (e.g., family, friends).
  • 27.  Violence is actual, attempted, or threatened harm to others.  Integrate both actuarial and clinical information when assessing for risk of violence.  Utilize multiple sources of information when identifying risk factors.  The most robust risk factors include substance abuse, previous violence, and psychopathy.  Important goals of risk assessment include better decision making, less recidivism, and community safety.