RealtyTrac Vice President Daren Blomquist shared the latest housing trends at the national, state and local level with members of the Los Angeles Real Estate Investors club, also providing practical tips on how to leverage those trends to grow their business using a service like RealtyTrac.

1. WELCOME
LEVERAGE THE LATEST HOUSING TRENDS TO
LAND THE BEST REAL ESTATE DEALS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

2. WHAT WE’LL COVER TODAY
• Latest home sales & price trends
• Latest foreclosure trends
• Trends in property flipping
– Best markets for flipping
• Trends in single family rentals/institutional investors
– Best markets for buying rentals
• Monsters of the housing markets: zombies & vampires
• Leveraging the latest trends
– Knowing the markets where you want to invest
– Buying short sale, auction, bank owned
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

3. REALTYTRAC DATA PRIMER
100 Million+ U.S. Properties
20 Economic & Neighborhood characteristics: schools,
crime rates, rents, unemployment, incomes, hazards etc.
Estimated Values: 2.2 billion current & historical
120 million+ current & historical loan records
82 million+ Sales/Deed Records back to 2000
Listing data for 1 million+ active listings
20 million current & historical foreclosure records
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

4. REALTYTRAC DATA PRIMER
County-Level Public Documents
• Pre-foreclosure, foreclosure auction and REO
• Sales & Loan
• Valuation and property characteristics
MLS
• Listing status, price and other info
• Property description and more characteristics
Publicly available datasets
• Neighborhood features, amenities, red flags
• Macro housing and economic metrics
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

5. LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

6. LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS
Overall home prices
up annually for 17
straight months. UP
23 percent from
bottom, still 26
percent below peak.
Distressed median
prices still flat lining
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

7. LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS
Average Annual Pct Change YTD in
2013 is 7 percent for nondistressed properties
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

8. LATEST HOME PRICE & SALES VOLUME TRENDS
Sales volume
increasing but low
inventory helping
to push prices up
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

9. STATE LEVEL SALES VOLUME TRENDS
Lack of for-sale
inventory may be
slowing sales in
California and
Arizona
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

10. SO CAL HOME PRICES
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

11. COUNTIES AND ZIPS WITH MOST APPRECIATION
ZIP
91502
90021
90716
90031
90007
91601
91020
90404
91316
93532
90502
91001
90020
90028
90038
90755
91204
91406
91411
91768
2012
2013
Pct Change
$237,500 $415,000
75%
$335,000 $580,000
73%
$168,000 $271,000
61%
$225,000 $361,000
60%
$308,500 $458,220
49%
$315,000 $467,000
48%
$367,500 $542,500
48%
$511,250 $750,000
47%
$345,000 $504,000
46%
$123,500 $180,000
46%
$243,500 $352,500
45%
$423,000 $610,000
44%
$250,000 $357,500
43%
$455,000 $650,000
43%
$516,250 $734,500
42%
$272,500 $387,000
42%
$263,250 $370,000
41%
$300,000 $420,000
40%
$370,500 $517,500
40%
$194,500 $271,500
40%
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

12. LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS – LOCAL MARKETS
Cash buyers increasingly
winning out in tight
credit market with low
inventory of homes for
sale
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

13. LATEST HOME PRICE TRENDS: NATIONWIDE
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
Seriously
underwater means
mortgage amount is
at least 25 percent
higher than
estimated market
value

14. UNDERWATER DATA BY COUNTY
• County-level interactive heat map
•
http://www.realtytrac.com/Content/news-and-opinion/seriously-underwaterhomeowners-county-heat-map-7856
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

15. HOME EQUITY PROFILES FOR MAJOR METROS
•
http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/HTMMWH5ZG?:display_count=yes
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

16. LOCAL UNDERWATER DATA
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

17. LOCAL EQUITY DATA
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

18. HOME PRICES BUOYING UNDERWATER INVENTORY
4.5 million homes nationwide
would transition from short sales to
equity sales with 10 percent
increase in home prices; 8.3 million
with a 20 percent rise

19. LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

20. HOW LONG WILL SHORT SALE SURGE LAST?
August foreclosure
starts at lowest level
since December 2005
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

21. LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS – METRO MARKETS
L-Shaped recovery
with clear signs of a
U developing
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

22. LATEST FORECLOSURE TRENDS – LOCAL MARKETS
Classic U-Shaped
Recovery
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

23. LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS – METRO MARKETS
Steady plodding
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

24. LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS – METRO MARKETS
Still flatlining
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

25. © 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

26. LEADING THE RECOVERY
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

27. LAGGING THE RECOVERY
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

28. LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS
California time
to foreclose now
more than 450
days
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

29. LATEST FORECLOSURE MARKET TRENDS RECAP
• Foreclosure activity is well past its peak nationwide
• Some state and local markets are lagging in
recovery because of lingering foreclosures
• States that have enacted more aggressive
foreclosure prevention legislation over the past
few years are susceptible to a rebound in
foreclosure activity
• For investors this means there will still be
opportunity to find discounted foreclosures going
forward in some markets over the next two years.
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

30. WHERE FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY IS REBOUNDING
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

31. WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS & AUCTIONS ARE REBOUNDING

32. SO CAL ZIP CODES WITH INCREASING FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY
Zip
City
NOD
LIS
NTS
NFS
Total
Props w /
Filings
REO
1/Every X
HU
% ∆ from
Q2 13
% ∆ from
Q3 12
State
County
91390 Santa Clarita
California
Los Angeles
21
0
13
0
4
38
177
58.33
-49.33
92377 Rialto
California
San Bernardino
37
0
15
0
6
58
94
56.76
-55.04
92627 Costa Mesa
California
Orange
17
0
8
0
7
32
734
52.38
-69.52
91324 Northridge
California
Los Angeles
14
0
12
0
7
33
283
50.00
-49.23
92082 Valley Center
California
San Diego
14
0
16
0
3
33
211
50.00
-51.47
92236 Coachella
California
Riverside
27
0
16
0
10
53
182
47.22
-57.60
90066 Los Angeles
California
Los Angeles
10
0
12
0
3
25
1,013
47.06
-44.44
92131 San Diego
California
San Diego
17
0
7
0
3
27
449
42.11
-65.38
90025 Los Angeles
California
Los Angeles
16
0
7
0
2
25
915
38.89
-16.67
92808 Anaheim
California
Orange
12
0
9
0
4
25
306
38.89
-53.70
92807 Anaheim
California
Orange
23
0
16
0
8
47
283
38.24
-48.91
91914 Chula Vista
California
San Diego
20
0
12
0
2
34
148
36.00
-64.58
91791 West Covina
California
Los Angeles
23
0
11
0
4
38
279
35.71
-55.29
92122 San Diego
California
San Diego
15
0
9
0
7
31
682
34.78
-60.26
90008 Los Angeles
California
Los Angeles
32
0
20
0
8
60
263
33.33
-25.00
90621 Buena Park
California
Orange
15
0
6
0
7
28
373
33.33
-56.25
92071 Santee
California
San Diego
29
0
18
0
10
57
338
32.56
-61.22
92879 Corona
California
Riverside
40
0
26
0
8
74
194
32.14
-63.55
91770 Rosemead
California
Los Angeles
21
0
9
0
3
33
530
32.00
-35.29
91746 La Puente
California
Los Angeles
16
0
10
0
3
29
245
31.82
-61.33
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

33. SO CAL ZIPS WITH HIGHEST FORECLOSURE RATES
Zip
City
NOD
LIS
NTS
NFS
Total
Props w /
Filings
REO
1/Every X
HU
% ∆ from
Q2 13
% ∆ from
Q3 12
State
County
92530 Lake Elsinore
California
Riverside
46
0
34
0
141
221
72
0.00
-19.64
92548 Homeland
California
Riverside
11
0
12
0
7
30
86
25.00
3.45
92301 Adelanto
California
San Bernardino
44
0
35
0
20
99
90
-2.94
-60.56
92377 Rialto
California
San Bernardino
37
0
15
0
6
58
94
56.76
-55.04
92582 San Jacinto
California
Riverside
23
0
10
0
9
42
105
-20.75
-68.66
92344 HESPERIA
California
SAN BERNARDINO
21
0
22
0
13
56
109
7.69
-62.91
92337 Fontana
California
San Bernardino
40
1
32
0
15
88
109
10.00
-60.89
92392 Victorville
California
San Bernardino
81
0
45
0
27
153
110
-2.55
-67.10
92532 Lake Elsinore
California
Riverside
28
0
16
0
4
48
113
-18.64
-69.03
92585 Sun City
California
Riverside
17
0
19
0
14
50
115
2.04
-58.68
92371 Phelan
California
San Bernardino
19
1
12
0
18
50
116
-9.09
-51.92
92571 Perris
California
Riverside
57
0
35
0
19
111
117
5.71
-64.76
92883 Corona
California
Riverside
45
0
30
0
10
85
117
30.77
-59.72
92284 Yucca Valley
California
San Bernardino
43
0
24
0
31
98
120
1.03
-51.96
92345 Hesperia
California
San Bernardino
92
2
65
0
45
204
120
0.00
-54.77
93552 Palmdale
California
Los Angeles
31
0
36
0
16
83
122
-25.89
-72.79
92394 Victorville
California
San Bernardino
30
0
24
0
17
71
122
-10.13
-70.42
92551 Moreno Valley
California
Riverside
32
0
23
0
11
66
122
-7.04
-68.12
93543 Littlerock
California
Los Angeles
12
1
9
0
10
32
128
-28.89
-57.89
92325 Crestline
California
San Bernardino
23
0
13
0
15
51
132
0.00
-62.22
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

34. WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS & AUCTIONS ARE REBOUNDING
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

35. HOW LONG WILL SHORT SALE SURGE LAST?
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

36. WHERE FORECLOSURE STARTS & AUCTIONS ARE REBOUNDING
• Why are foreclosure starts and auctions rebounding?
– Pent-up foreclosure activity from robo-signing, national
mortgage settlement and state legislation/court rulings
– Rising prices may be helping to motivate foreclosure
• What are implications for real estate investors?
– Clock is now ticking on delinquent homeowners
– Auctions may be good place to buy in next 6 to 12
months
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

37. TRENDS IN PROPERTY FLIPPING
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

38. FLIPPING TRENDS
U.S. property flips
increased 17 percent
from a year ago in the
second quarter

39. FLIPPING TRENDS
Arizona flips down 35
percent YoY. Gross
profit $21K per flip
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

40. FLIPPING TRENDS
Phoenix flips down 36
percent YoY. Gross
profit $26K per flip
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

41. BEST MARKETS FOR FLIPPING
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

42. WHAT YOU BUY MATTERS - FLIPS
Flipping data for 3-bedroom single family homes built in 1990 or later
Metro
Number of 2012 Flips Avg Purchase Price Avg Flip Price Gross Profit Gross Return Pct
Las Vegas
1,525
$124,849
$246,347 $121,498
97%
Atlanta
1,396
$91,873
$102,096 $10,223
11%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
1,004
$185,429
$210,177 $24,748
13%
Cape Coral, FL
802
$98,747
$113,979 $15,232
15%
Denver
591
$223,323
$230,417
$7,094
3%
Sacramento
496
$198,369
$225,917 $27,548
14%
Miami
486
$132,476
$177,256 $44,779
34%
Orlando
480
$98,122
$205,727 $107,605
110%
Sarasota, FL
356
$116,428
$157,443 $41,014
35%
Port St. Lucie, FL
273
$89,894
$130,380 $40,486
45%
Jacksonville, FL
271
$80,249
$119,345 $39,096
49%
Seattle
250
$220,018
$231,263 $11,245
5%
©RealtyTrac Inc. 2013, Not for Distribution

43. WHAT YOU BUY MATTERS - FLIPS
Flipping data for 2-bedroom single family homes built 1920 to 1950
Metro
Number of 2012 Flips Avg Purchase Price Avg Flip Price Gross Profit Gross Return Pct
Los Angeles
981
$247,660
$328,077 $80,417
32%
San Francisco
273
$251,091
$317,343 $66,252
26%
Denver
249
$149,778
$197,265 $47,487
32%
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
201
$102,571
$131,716 $29,145
28%
Sacramento
146
$120,761
$146,443 $25,682
21%
Miami
132
$88,442
$125,562 $37,121
42%
San Diego
119
$232,261
$310,801 $78,540
34%
Seattle
108
$152,905
$203,199 $50,294
33%
Cincinnati
107
$46,327
$48,944
$2,616
6%
Detroit
102
$57,455
$56,325 ($1,131)
-2%
Portland
102
$146,713
$199,693 $52,980
36%
Atlanta
91
$68,715
$84,178 $15,464
23%
©RealtyTrac Inc. 2013, Not for Distribution

44. TRENDS IN SINGLE FAMILY RENTALS/INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

45. RENTAL ROI STILL GOOD IN MANY MARKETS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

46. FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
U.S. institutional investor
purchases accounted for
10 percent of all
residential sales in August
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

47. FLIPPING & INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS
Institutional
investors only
accounted for 4
percent of all
residential sales
in LA County in
August, down
from 6 percent a
year ago.
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

48. HOW SINGLE FAMILY HOMES ARE BEING PURCHASED
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

49. TOP 25 HIDDEN GEM SINGLE FAMILY RENTAL MARKETS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

50. TOP SATURATED SINGLE FAMILY RENTAL MARKETS
#
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
©RealtyTrac Inc. 2013, Not for Distribution
Metro Area
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC
Macon, GA
Memphis, TN-MS-AR
Jacksonville, FL
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Winston-Salem, NC
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
Lakeland, FL
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
Albuquerque, NM
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
Athens-Clarke County, GA
Greensboro-High Point, NC
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
Montgomery, AL
Bakersfield, CA
Reno-Sparks, NV
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
Boise City-Nampa, ID
Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA
Gainesville, GA
Investor %
24%
20%
18%
18%
18%
17%
16%
16%
16%
14%
14%
14%
14%
13%
12%
12%
12%
12%
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
10%
10%
50

51. THE MONSTERS OF THE HOUSING MARKET: ZOMBIES & VAMPIRES
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

52. THE PROBLEM AND OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES
Nationwide vacant
foreclosures account for one
in every five properties in
foreclosure
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

53. THE PROBLEM & OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

54. THE PROBLEM & OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES
• The problem
– More than 150,000 vacant homes nationwide, 20
percent of all homes in the foreclosure process
– Homeowners often don’t realize they still own the
property and are responsible for taxes etc.
• The opportunity
– Homeowners who have exhibited a desire to let go of
the property
– Lenders who don’t want to foreclose
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

55. VAMPIRE REOS
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

56. LOCAL VAMPIRE REOS
ZIP
90044
90003
91335
90047
91331
92410
92346
92324
93552
92545
92405
92335
91342
92234
90650
92201
92376
92307
93550
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC
State
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
California
County
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
San Bernardino
San Bernardino
San Bernardino
Los Angeles
Riverside
San Bernardino
San Bernardino
Los Angeles
Riverside
Los Angeles
Riverside
San Bernardino
San Bernardino
Los Angeles
City
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Reseda
Los Angeles
Pacoima
San Bernardino
Highland
Colton
Palmdale
Hemet
San Bernardino
Fontana
Sylmar
Cathedral City
Norwalk
Indio
Rialto
Apple Valley
Palmdale
Pct REO Occupied
81%
78%
73%
70%
69%
64%
64%
61%
59%
59%
57%
57%
57%
57%
55%
55%
55%
54%
54%

57. THE PROBLEM & OPPORTUNITY OF ZOMBIE FORECLOSURES
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac

58. LEVERAGING HOUSING TRENDS: KNOW YOUR MARKET
Local, state
and national
foreclosure
rates
Recent default, auction
and REO trends
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

59. LEVERAGING HOUSING TRENDS: FIND MARKETS WITH
REBOUNDING FORECLOSURES
Foreclosure
Inventory and
Prices
Historical
Foreclosure
Discounts
3. Know your overall market
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

60. LEVERAGING HOUSING TRENDS: FIND-OFF MARKET HOMES
Find pre-foreclosures and
scheduled auctions in your
neighborhood
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

61. LEVERAGING HOUSING TRENDS: CONTACT HOMEOWNERS
Create mailing lists of
distressed homeowners in
default or scheduled for
foreclosure auction
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

62. LEVERAGING HOUSING TRENDS: TARGET MOTIVATED SELLERS
Identify homeowners who have
vacated their homes and get
new mailing addresses
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

63. FIND MOTIVATED SELLERS WITH EQUITY
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

64. FIND MARKETS/HOMES WITH GOOD POTENTIAL CAP RATES
• Buy for $20K (possibly
less at auction)
• Rent for $1000 a month
• Est. carrying costs at
$500 a month
• Cash flow of $500 a
month
• Cap rate of 30%!
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

65. FIND MARKETS/HOMES WITH GOOD POTENTIAL CAP RATES
• Buy for $105k (REO)
• Rent for $1,284 a month
• Est. carrying costs at $514
a month
• Cash flow of $770 a month
• Cap rate of 9%
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC

66. FIND HOMES/MARKETS WITH GOOD FLIPPING POTENTIAL
• List price $46,500, Est.
After-Repair Market
Value: $117,088
• Sold back to bank for
$23,600, so they are
motivated to sell low
© 2013 Renwood RealtyTrac LLC