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Zoe R. York, MAI
260 West 12th Avenue, Eugene, OR 97401
(541) 687-1938 / (541) 683-0932
zoe@duncanbrown.com
www.duncanbrown.com
Rene’ Nelson, CCIM, CRE
895 Country Club Rd, Eugene, OR 97401
(541) 912-6583
rene@1031guru.com
www.eugene-commercial.com
Rachel McLaughlin
Exchange Facilitator
Cascade Title Company
800 Willamette Street, Eugene, OR 97401
(541) 687-2233
rmclaughlin@cascadetitle.com
www.cascadetitle.com
Brian Cox
Real Estate & Property Mgmt Attorney
Brian Cox Law Offices
142 W 8th Avenue, Eugene, OR 97401
(541) 683-7151
bcox@coxassociates.info
www.briancoxeugeneattorney.com
Zoe York, MAI Appraiser
Commercial Real Estate Appraiser
Duncan & Brown Appraisal
Services
Demand Overview – Multi-Family
Eugene-Springfield 2018 Co-Star Rent/Unit Springfield
Co-Star Rent/Unit Eugene
 Rents trending upward since 2013-
14
 Springfield rent increases in range
of 30%-40%.
 Eugene rent increases in range of
20% to 30%.
 Gap closing between
Eugene/Springfield rent levels
given limited supply and high
demand
 Average rent levels Eugene v.
Springfield also impacted by % of
new units in the data set: less new
unit construction in Springfield
compared to Eugene.
 Average increases over time less
than 5% per year.
2-4 Unit Income Approach
Rent Multipliers (GRM/GIM)
GRM (Monthly Factor) – Appraisal Practice
Gross Rent (Monthly) x GRM (Gross Rent Multiplier) = Value
GIM (Annual Factor) – MLS Calculations / Brokers
Gross Rent (Annually) x GIM = Value
EXAMPLE:
Duplex: $800/unit rent = $1,600 Gross Monthly Rent and
$19,200 Annually
GRM: 150
Value: $1,600 x 150 = $240,000
GIM: 12.5
Value: $19,200 x 12.5 = $240,000
2 to 4 Units-Value Change
Trends Over Time:
 Early 2007 GRM’s were 170 to 190 (14-16)
 Late 2010-12 GRM’s were 125 to 140 (10-12)
 Late 2017-2019 GRM’s are 140-165+ (12-14)
*market v. below market impacts
How Changes in Variables Impact Value:
EXTRACTING GRM’s AND GIM’s FROM MARKET
Sample Property Sold for $250,000 - duplex
-Current Rent of Sale Property $1,600/ month, $19,200/year
(Extracted GRM = 156, GIM = 13)
-Market Rent of Sale Property $2,000/month, $24,000/year
(Extracted GRM = 125, GIM = 10.5)
What Could Rent Control Mean
for Your Value?
Subject In-Place Rents: $20,000/year
(substantially below market)
Market Rents: $25,000/year
*Potential for limited investor perceived
upside, rents will likely be analyzed as current,
not set at market
2017-2018 Trends: $25,000 x 10.5 =
$260,000. Reflects upside.
Potential Impacts: $20,000 x 10.5*=
$210,000. No more upside.
*Example Shows Extremes, GRMs/GIMS
will be driven by the market
Timing of Change
• Changes dictated by market reactions. Lag
of actual change versus observed impacts.
• Will there be added supply due to investor
portfolio changes?
• Will there be added risk PERCEIVED in the
market?
• Primary risk for projects 10% or more
below market.
• Actual long term rental increase trend less
than 5% per year on average. Long term
holds can catch up with good management.
Where Do I Go Now?
Visit Rene’s Website For Latest Information…
Oregon Rent Control Center
www.eugenecommercial.com
For further information:
Zoe York – zoe@duncanbrown.com
(541) 687-1938
Rene’ Nelson – rene@1031guru.com
(541) 912-6583
Rachel McLaughlin –
rmclaughlin@cascadetitle.com
(541) 687-2233
Brian Cox – bcox@coxassociates.info
(541) 683-7151

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Oregon Rent Control Law Informational Presentation 2019 - Zoe York, MAI

  • 1. Zoe R. York, MAI 260 West 12th Avenue, Eugene, OR 97401 (541) 687-1938 / (541) 683-0932 zoe@duncanbrown.com www.duncanbrown.com Rene’ Nelson, CCIM, CRE 895 Country Club Rd, Eugene, OR 97401 (541) 912-6583 rene@1031guru.com www.eugene-commercial.com Rachel McLaughlin Exchange Facilitator Cascade Title Company 800 Willamette Street, Eugene, OR 97401 (541) 687-2233 rmclaughlin@cascadetitle.com www.cascadetitle.com Brian Cox Real Estate & Property Mgmt Attorney Brian Cox Law Offices 142 W 8th Avenue, Eugene, OR 97401 (541) 683-7151 bcox@coxassociates.info www.briancoxeugeneattorney.com
  • 2. Zoe York, MAI Appraiser Commercial Real Estate Appraiser Duncan & Brown Appraisal Services
  • 3. Demand Overview – Multi-Family Eugene-Springfield 2018 Co-Star Rent/Unit Springfield Co-Star Rent/Unit Eugene  Rents trending upward since 2013- 14  Springfield rent increases in range of 30%-40%.  Eugene rent increases in range of 20% to 30%.  Gap closing between Eugene/Springfield rent levels given limited supply and high demand  Average rent levels Eugene v. Springfield also impacted by % of new units in the data set: less new unit construction in Springfield compared to Eugene.  Average increases over time less than 5% per year.
  • 4. 2-4 Unit Income Approach Rent Multipliers (GRM/GIM) GRM (Monthly Factor) – Appraisal Practice Gross Rent (Monthly) x GRM (Gross Rent Multiplier) = Value GIM (Annual Factor) – MLS Calculations / Brokers Gross Rent (Annually) x GIM = Value EXAMPLE: Duplex: $800/unit rent = $1,600 Gross Monthly Rent and $19,200 Annually GRM: 150 Value: $1,600 x 150 = $240,000 GIM: 12.5 Value: $19,200 x 12.5 = $240,000
  • 5. 2 to 4 Units-Value Change Trends Over Time:  Early 2007 GRM’s were 170 to 190 (14-16)  Late 2010-12 GRM’s were 125 to 140 (10-12)  Late 2017-2019 GRM’s are 140-165+ (12-14) *market v. below market impacts How Changes in Variables Impact Value: EXTRACTING GRM’s AND GIM’s FROM MARKET Sample Property Sold for $250,000 - duplex -Current Rent of Sale Property $1,600/ month, $19,200/year (Extracted GRM = 156, GIM = 13) -Market Rent of Sale Property $2,000/month, $24,000/year (Extracted GRM = 125, GIM = 10.5)
  • 6. What Could Rent Control Mean for Your Value? Subject In-Place Rents: $20,000/year (substantially below market) Market Rents: $25,000/year *Potential for limited investor perceived upside, rents will likely be analyzed as current, not set at market 2017-2018 Trends: $25,000 x 10.5 = $260,000. Reflects upside. Potential Impacts: $20,000 x 10.5*= $210,000. No more upside. *Example Shows Extremes, GRMs/GIMS will be driven by the market
  • 7. Timing of Change • Changes dictated by market reactions. Lag of actual change versus observed impacts. • Will there be added supply due to investor portfolio changes? • Will there be added risk PERCEIVED in the market? • Primary risk for projects 10% or more below market. • Actual long term rental increase trend less than 5% per year on average. Long term holds can catch up with good management.
  • 8. Where Do I Go Now? Visit Rene’s Website For Latest Information… Oregon Rent Control Center www.eugenecommercial.com
  • 9. For further information: Zoe York – zoe@duncanbrown.com (541) 687-1938 Rene’ Nelson – rene@1031guru.com (541) 912-6583 Rachel McLaughlin – rmclaughlin@cascadetitle.com (541) 687-2233 Brian Cox – bcox@coxassociates.info (541) 683-7151