BMI's Central Asia Telecommunications Report for Q110 covers Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, with five-year forecasts for the mobile and fixed-line sectors, as well as market data analysis sections for the mobile, fixed-line and internet markets. This quarter our forecasts have all been extended through to the end of 2014. Current trends are expected to continue with slow but steady growth in the fixed-line markets and fast growth in the mobile sectors, albeit at a slowing pace. Central Asia's mobile markets are by far the most liberalised and developed sectors in each of the countries. The Russian operators MTS, VimpelCom and MegaFon all have significant interests across the region, competing with each other and Nordic giant TeliaSonera, along with Turkey's Turkcell, through its joint venture with TeliaSonera, Fintur Holdings. The main development in the mobile market this quarter has been Sweden's Tele2 acquiring a controlling stake in Kazakhtelecom's GSM mobile unit, NeoTelecom. NeoTelecom is the smallest of Kazakhstan's three GSM mobile operators but has been slowly building up its market share. This represents Tele2's first foray into Central Asia but the operator does have experience of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS); Tele2 Russia is the fourth largest mobile operator in Russia. Tele2 has a reputation for efficient management and following a price leadership strategy and we are expecting it to have a notable impact on Kazakhstan's mobile market. Tele2 has earmarked SEK2,400-2,600mn of capital expenditure in Kazakhstan between 2010 and 2013 and aims to have more than 20% market share within four years of commercial re-launch. Tele2's main competitors will be VimpelCom's KaR-Tel and Fintur's K-Cell. In October 2009 MTS Uzbekistan announced that it would trial LTE services in Uzbekistan. The announcement came just one week after MTS' fiercest rival in the region, VimpelCom, announced an LTE trial at its Kazakh subsidiary KaR-Tel. BMI had not expected MTS and VimpelCom to choose countries in Central Asia for their LTE trials but given the underdeveloped wireline infrastructure in the region there is huge growth potential for mobile broadband services. As noted above the region's fixed-line markets are relatively underdeveloped and dominated by the countries' respective fixed-line incumbents. Competition in the markets does vary but even in the more developed markets such as Kazakhstan, competition is not particularly fierce, with most alternative operators choosing to target the growing internet sectors over fixed-line. Nevertheless, fixed-line penetration in the region is increasing, albeit at a slow and steady pace. Going forward, we are not anticipating dramatic increases in the region's fixed-line subscriber bases. Although fixed-line networks are being expanded, the mobile sectors are expanding at a much faster rate and fixed-to-mobile substitution is expected to grow in prominence.

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Central Asia Telecommunications Report Q1 2010
Published on February 2010
Report Summary
BMI's Central Asia Telecommunications Report for Q110 covers Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan,
with five-year forecasts for the mobile and fixed-line sectors, as well as market data analysis sections for the mobile, fixed-line and
internet markets. This quarter our forecasts have all been extended through to the end of 2014. Current trends are expected to
continue with slow but steady growth in the fixed-line markets and fast growth in the mobile sectors, albeit at a slowing pace. Central
Asia's mobile markets are by far the most liberalised and developed sectors in each of the countries. The Russian operators MTS,
VimpelCom and MegaFon all have significant interests across the region, competing with each other and Nordic giant TeliaSonera,
along with Turkey's Turkcell, through its joint venture with TeliaSonera, Fintur Holdings.
The main development in the mobile market this quarter has been Sweden's Tele2 acquiring a controlling stake in Kazakhtelecom's
GSM mobile unit, NeoTelecom. NeoTelecom is the smallest of Kazakhstan's three GSM mobile operators but has been slowly
building up its market share. This represents Tele2's first foray into Central Asia but the operator does have experience of the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS); Tele2 Russia is the fourth largest mobile operator in Russia. Tele2 has a reputation for
efficient management and following a price leadership strategy and we are expecting it to have a notable impact on Kazakhstan's
mobile market. Tele2 has earmarked SEK2,400-2,600mn of capital expenditure in Kazakhstan between 2010 and 2013 and aims to
have more than 20% market share within four years of commercial re-launch. Tele2's main competitors will be VimpelCom's KaR-Tel
and Fintur's K-Cell. In October 2009 MTS Uzbekistan announced that it would trial LTE services in Uzbekistan. The announcement
came just one week after MTS' fiercest rival in the region, VimpelCom, announced an LTE trial at its Kazakh subsidiary KaR-Tel. BMI
had not expected MTS and VimpelCom to choose countries in Central Asia for their LTE trials but given the underdeveloped wireline
infrastructure in the region there is huge growth potential for mobile broadband services.
As noted above the region's fixed-line markets are relatively underdeveloped and dominated by the countries' respective fixed-line
incumbents. Competition in the markets does vary but even in the more developed markets such as Kazakhstan, competition is not
particularly fierce, with most alternative operators choosing to target the growing internet sectors over fixed-line. Nevertheless,
fixed-line penetration in the region is increasing, albeit at a slow and steady pace. Going forward, we are not anticipating dramatic
increases in the region's fixed-line subscriber bases. Although fixed-line networks are being expanded, the mobile sectors are
expanding at a much faster rate and fixed-to-mobile substitution is expected to grow in prominence.
Table of Content
Executive Summary ....5
SWOT Analysis ....6
Central Asia Telecommunications SWOT ..... 6
Business Environment ...........7
Central Asia .7
Table: Central Asia Business Environment Ratings 10
Industry Forecast Scenario ...11
Mobile ... 11
Table: Central Asia ' Mobile Sector ' Historical Data & Forecasts ...... 11
Uzbekistan ........ 12
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Kazakhstan ....... 13
Kyrgyzstan ........ 14
Tajikistan .......... 15
Turkmenistan .... 16
Fixed Line ......... 17
Table: Central Asia ' Fixed-Line Sector ' Historical Data & Forecasts 17
Market Data Analysis 20
Mobile ........ 20
Uzbekistan ........ 20
Table: Uzbekistan Mobile Market, September 2009 ....... 23
Kazakhstan ....... 23
Table: Kazakhstan Mobile Market, September 2009 ....... 27
Kyrgyzstan ........ 27
Table: Kyrgyzstan Mobile Market, September 2009 (estimated) . 29
Tajikistan .......... 29
Table: Tajikistan Mobile Market, September 2009 . 32
Turkmenistan .... 32
Table: Turkmenistan Mobile Market, September 2009 ... 34
Fixed Line .. 35
Uzbekistan ........ 35
Kazakhstan ....... 36
Kyrgyzstan ........ 37
Tajikistan .......... 38
Turkmenistan .... 38
Internet ...... 39
Uzbekistan ........ 39
Kazakhstan ....... 40
Kyrgyzstan ........ 43
Tajikistan .......... 45
Turkmenistan .... 46
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments .....47
Kazakhstan . 47
Kazakhstan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities ........ 48
Kyrgyzstan . 49
Kyrgyzstan: Regulatory Bodies And their Responsibilities ......... 50
Tajikistan ... 50
Tajikistan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities .......... 52
Turkmenistan ......... 53
Turkmenistan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities ..... 54
Uzbekistan . 54
Uzbekistan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities ........ 55
Competitive Landscape ........57
Key Players 57
Table: Key Players ' Central Asia Telecoms Sector ....... 57
Company Monitor .. 58
Worldwide Smartphone Sales To End-Users In Q209 ..... 58
Selected Profiles ' Operators .... 61
Appendix: ...........70
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview .70
Fixed Line ......... 70
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Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview . 70
Mobile ... 71
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview ....... 71
Glossary Of Terms ....72
Table: Glossary Of Terms ..... 72
BMI Methodology ......73
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 73
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts ........ 73
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings .... 74
Table: Weighting Of Indicators ........ 75
Table: Ratings Indicators ..... 76
Sources . 76
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