The latest Colombia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.18% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 6.12% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.74mn b/d in 2009. It should average 7.90mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 8.61mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 10.30mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.67mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.78mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.37mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 1.92mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to recover to 2.17mn b/d in 2014. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 201.2bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 256.4bcm targeted for 2014, representing 27.4% growth. Production of an estimated 217.5bcm in 2009 should reach 299.0bcm in 2014, and implies 42.6bcm of net exports the end of the period. Colombia's estimated share of gas consumption in 2009 was 3.88%, while its share of production was 4.28%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.94%, with the country accounting for 3.85% of supply. For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond. For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year's level. Colombian real GDP in 2009 is estimated by BMI to have fallen by 0.4%, compared with growth of 2.5% in 2008. We are assuming average annual 3.2% growth in 2010- 2014. The government is working hard to encourage international oil company (IOC) investment and boost near-term domestic oil production, aided by state-owned Ecopetrol. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 660,000b/d by 2014, with the country expected to pump 670,000b/d in 2010. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by 3-4% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 274,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The country's export capability will therefore peak at 431,000b/d in 2010, then decline to 386,000b/d by 2014. Gas consumption is forecast to increase from an estimated 7.8bcm in 2009 to 10.1bcm over the period, met by rising domestic production, which will also provide modest exports to Venezuela. Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Colombian oil production of 23.7%, with crude volumes peaking at 675,000b/d in 2013 and then falling steadily to 500,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 37.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 318,000 b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 9.3bcm in 2009 to 15.0bcm in 2019. With demand growth of 73.1%, this implies export potential of 1.5bcm by 2019. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Colombia ranks fourth behind Peru in BMI's updated Upstream Business Envir

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Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Published on December 2009
Report Summary
The latest Colombia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.18% of Latin America regional oil demand
by 2014, while providing 6.12% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an
estimated 7.74mn b/d in 2009. It should average 7.90mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 8.61mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil
production was 10.30mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.67mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.78mn b/d by 2014. Oil
exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting
an average 3.37mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 1.92mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to recover to 2.17mn b/d in 2014. The
principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 201.2bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 256.4bcm targeted
for 2014, representing 27.4% growth. Production of an estimated 217.5bcm in 2009 should reach 299.0bcm in 2014, and implies
42.6bcm of net exports the end of the period. Colombia's estimated share of gas consumption in 2009 was 3.88%, while its share of
production was 4.28%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.94%, with the country accounting for 3.85% of
supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year
(y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to
see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to
US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost
US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of
US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The
annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha
price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year's level. Colombian real GDP in 2009 is estimated by BMI to
have fallen by 0.4%, compared with growth of 2.5% in 2008. We are assuming average annual 3.2% growth in 2010- 2014. The
government is working hard to encourage international oil company (IOC) investment and boost near-term domestic oil production,
aided by state-owned Ecopetrol. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 660,000b/d by 2014, with the
country expected to pump 670,000b/d in 2010. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by 3-4% per annum to 2014,
implying demand of 274,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The country's export capability will therefore peak at 431,000b/d in
2010, then decline to 386,000b/d by 2014. Gas consumption is forecast to increase from an estimated 7.8bcm in 2009 to 10.1bcm
over the period, met by rising domestic production, which will also provide modest exports to Venezuela.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Colombian oil production of 23.7%, with crude volumes peaking at
675,000b/d in 2013 and then falling steadily to 500,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019
is set to increase by 37.0%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using
318,000 b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 9.3bcm in 2009 to 15.0bcm in 2019. With
demand growth of 73.1%, this implies export potential of 1.5bcm by 2019. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the
appendix to this report.
Colombia ranks fourth behind Peru in BMI's updated Upstream Business Environment rating, well ahead of Trinidad and Argentina.
While the absolute resource base is modest, the competitive environment is attractive and licensing terms have improved to become
some of the best in the region. Country risk is moderate and Colombia is well placed to retain its strong position in the league table.
The country now ranks second behind Brazil in BMI's updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its oil demand
growth outlook, refining capacity expansion plans, moderate Country Risk and low retail site intensity. Argentina holds third place, but
arguably lacks the potential to challenge Colombia.
Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010 Page 1/6

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Table of Content
Executive Summary ....7
SWOT Analysis .9
Colombia Political SWOT Analysis ..... 9
Colombia Economic SWOT Analysis ... 9
Colombia Business Environment SWOT Analysis . 10
Colombia Energy Market Overview .11
Regional Energy Market Overview ..16
Oil Supply And Demand . 16
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) .. 17
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) 18
Oil: Downstream 19
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 19
Gas Supply And Demand 20
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) 20
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) ... 20
Liquefied Natural Gas .... 21
Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm) .. 21
Business Environment Ranking 22
Latin America Region ..... 22
Composite Scores .. 22
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating . 23
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating .. 24
Upstream Scores ... 24
Downstream Scores .... 24
Colombia Upstream Rating ' Overview .... 25
Colombia Upstream Rating ' Potential Returns ... 25
Colombia Upstream Rating ' Risks to Potential Returns .. 25
Colombia Downstream Rating ' Overview 25
Colombia Downstream Rating ' Potential Returns .... 26
Colombia Downstream Rating ' Risks to Potential Returns .... 26
Business Environment ...27
Legal Framework ..... 27
Infrastructure .. 29
Labour Force .. 30
Foreign Investment Policy ..... 31
Tax Regime ... 32
Security Risk ... 32
Industry Forecast Scenario ...34
Oil And Gas Reserves ..... 34
Oil Supply And Demand . 34
Gas Supply And Demand 35
LNG ... 36
Refining And Oil Products Trade .... 36
Revenues/Import Costs ... 37
Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010 Page 2/6

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Table: Colombia Oil & Gas ' Historical Data & Forecasts ... 38
Other Energy 39
Table: Colombia Other Energy ' Historical Data & Forecasts ... 40
Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario .. 40
Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook .. 40
Macroeconomic Outlook .41
Table: Colombia - Economic Activity, 2006 ' 2013 .... 42
Competitive Landscape ..43
Table: Key Players ' Colombian Oil & Gas Sector .... 44
Overview/State Role . 44
Table: Key Upstream Players 46
Table: Key Downstream Players . 46
Company Monitor 47
Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos (Ecopetrol) .. 47
BP Colombia 52
Chevron Colombia ... 54
Occidental de Colombia . 56
Petrobras Colombia . 58
TEPMA Colombia (Total) ... 60
ExxonMobil Colombia .... 62
Repsol YPF ' Summary ... 64
Royal Dutch Shell ' Summary ..... 64
Gran Tierra ' Summary ... 64
Cepsa ' Summary . 65
Perenco ' Summary .... 65
Petro Vista ' Summary .... 66
Pacific Rubiales ' Summary .. 66
Hocol Colombia ' Summary .. 67
Others ' Summary 68
Glossary of Terms .....71
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology ..72
Introduction .. 72
Ratings Overview ..... 72
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 73
Indicators 74
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology .... 74
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology ..... 75
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ..77
Regional Oil Demand ..... 77
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d) .. 77
Regional Oil Supply . 78
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d) 78
Regional Refining Capacity . 79
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 79
Regional Gas Demand ... 80
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm) 80
Regional Gas Supply 81
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm) ... 81
Colombia Country Overview ..... 81
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts . 82
Colombia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010 Page 3/6

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BMI Forecast Modelling ..83
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 83
Energy Industry .. 84
Cross checks . 84
Sources .... 84
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