In BMI's updated Business Environment Ranking table for the Americas, Colombia's score has remainedthe same, again ranking the country fifth out of the 10 major markets in the region. While the risingpopulation numbers and a steady forecast market growth represent considerable draws for foreigncompanies, the persistent problems regarding its intellectual property (IP) environment ' as well as thehigher attractiveness of other larger and better regulated Latin American markets - will continue tohamper foreign direct investment (FDI) over the coming years.Colombia's drug market compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in local currency terms is forecast at asolid 11.56%, similar to the US dollar CAGR, which is expected at 12.04%. In theory, the futureratification of the penned Free Trade Agreement (FTA) by the US should provide a legal basis to continueto improve enforcement to meet its treaty obligations, although continued delays to the ratification of thedeal are breeding uncertainty.On a positive note, there has been an increase in the presence of non-profit organisations addressingColombia's healthcare needs, to the tune of US$81mn in 2005. In light of mounting evidence of thecountry's exposure to the global economic downturn, BMI's Country Risk team believes Colombia willbe unable to escape a recession in 2009. The GDP growth forecast has been revised downwards, from2.9% and 4.5% in 2009 and 2010, respectively, to 2.1% and 3.9%. This will further reduce thegovernment's focus on improving the country's healthcare systems, leading to more non-profit institutionsentering the country. In fact, given that price rises in private healthcare are the second-largest componentof top-line inflation figures, alternative funding sources will be crucial for ensuring adequate access tohealthcare and ensuring that certain social groups (such as indigenous and female population) are notfurther disadvantaged.Colombian private health insurance firms have recently been criticised for failing to provide care forHIV/AIDS patients. The United Nations Program on AIDS (UNAIDS) has expressed serious concernsover the absence of a transparent national strategy that has left private health insurers with little or noincentives to provide relevant treatments for affected patients. Nevertheless, according to the latest reportby UNAIDS on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic, Latin America is performing better in terms of scaling upaccess to antiretroviral (ARV) drugs compared with rates of coverage in other low- and middle-incomecountries. However, a perception that the price of treatment in Latin America is high compared with otherregions is leading to mounting pressure on Latin America's leaders to talk tough on perceived overpricingof ARVs. A number of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have already petitioned the Colombiangovernment to issue a compulsory licence for one ARV, following failed requests that its manufacturervoluntarily lowers the drug's price.

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Colombia Pharmaceuticals Report Q2 2009
Published on April 2009
Report Summary
In BMI's updated Business Environment Ranking table for the Americas, Colombia's score has remained
the same, again ranking the country fifth out of the 10 major markets in the region. While the rising
population numbers and a steady forecast market growth represent considerable draws for foreign
companies, the persistent problems regarding its intellectual property (IP) environment ' as well as the
higher attractiveness of other larger and better regulated Latin American markets - will continue to
hamper foreign direct investment (FDI) over the coming years.
Colombia's drug market compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in local currency terms is forecast at a
solid 11.56%, similar to the US dollar CAGR, which is expected at 12.04%. In theory, the future
ratification of the penned Free Trade Agreement (FTA) by the US should provide a legal basis to continue
to improve enforcement to meet its treaty obligations, although continued delays to the ratification of the
deal are breeding uncertainty.
On a positive note, there has been an increase in the presence of non-profit organisations addressing
Colombia's healthcare needs, to the tune of US$81mn in 2005. In light of mounting evidence of the
country's exposure to the global economic downturn, BMI's Country Risk team believes Colombia will
be unable to escape a recession in 2009. The GDP growth forecast has been revised downwards, from
2.9% and 4.5% in 2009 and 2010, respectively, to 2.1% and 3.9%. This will further reduce the
government's focus on improving the country's healthcare systems, leading to more non-profit institutions
entering the country. In fact, given that price rises in private healthcare are the second-largest component
of top-line inflation figures, alternative funding sources will be crucial for ensuring adequate access to
healthcare and ensuring that certain social groups (such as indigenous and female population) are not
further disadvantaged.
Colombian private health insurance firms have recently been criticised for failing to provide care for
HIV/AIDS patients. The United Nations Program on AIDS (UNAIDS) has expressed serious concerns
over the absence of a transparent national strategy that has left private health insurers with little or no
incentives to provide relevant treatments for affected patients. Nevertheless, according to the latest report
by UNAIDS on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic, Latin America is performing better in terms of scaling up
access to antiretroviral (ARV) drugs compared with rates of coverage in other low- and middle-income
countries. However, a perception that the price of treatment in Latin America is high compared with other
regions is leading to mounting pressure on Latin America's leaders to talk tough on perceived overpricing
of ARVs. A number of non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have already petitioned the Colombian
government to issue a compulsory licence for one ARV, following failed requests that its manufacturer
voluntarily lowers the drug's price.
Table of Content
Executive Summary .5
Colombia Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT... 6
Colombia Political SWOT Analysis .... 7
Colombia Pharmaceuticals Report Q2 2009 Page 1/5

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Colombia Economic SWOT Analysis .. 8
Colombia Business Environment SWOT Analysis. 9
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings .......10
Table: Americas Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q209...... 10
Limits To Potential Returns ..... 10
Risks To Realisation Of Returns ....... 11
Colombia ' Market Summary...12
Regulatory Regime.14
Intellectual Property Environment.... 14
Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals ... 16
Proposed US Free Trade Agreement 17
Table: Colombia-US FTA Mechanisms Relevant To IP........ 18
Pricing And Reimbursement Issues... 19
Other Regulatory Issues.. 21
Industry Developments...22
Epidemiology 22
Healthcare Sector .. 24
Healthcare Insurance ..... 25
Healthcare Insurance Funding 27
Pharmaceutical Sector.... 27
Recent Pharmaceutical Company Developments 28
Clinical Trials........ 30
Medical Devices..... 30
Industry Forecast Scenario ......32
Overall Market Forecast. 32
Table: Colombia - Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts .... 33
Key Growth Factors ' Industry 34
Table: Colombia - Health Expenditure Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts ........ 35
Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomic ..... 36
Table: Colombia - Economic Activity ........ 38
Prescription Market Forecasts 39
Table: Colombia - Prescription Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (COPmn unless otherwise stated) .. 40
Patented Market Forecast........ 41
Table: Colombia - Patented Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts ....... 41
Generics Market Forecast ....... 42
Table: Colombia - Generic Market Trends, Historical Data and Forecasts ..... 43
OTC Market Forecasts ... 44
Table: Colombia - OTC Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (COPmn unless otherwise stated) ..... 45
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecasts...... 46
Table: Colombia - Pharmaceuticals Trade Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn) 47
Medical Device Market Forecast...... 47
Table: Colombia ' Medical Devices Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise stated) ..... 48
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts..... 48
Table: Colombia ' Other Healthcare Data Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts ..... 48
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario...... 49
Competitive Landscape..50
Company Monitor...51
Leading Multinationals........ 51
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).. 51
Pfizer ... 53
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Merck & Co .. 54
Sanofi-Aventis........ 55
Novartis ........ 56
Indigenous Manufacturers ... 57
Tecnoquímicas....... 57
Lafrancol ...... 59
Laboratorios Brussié ...... 61
Country Snapshot: Colombia Demographic Data .....63
Section 1: Population...... 63
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030....... 63
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 64
Section 2: Education And Healthcare........ 64
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .. 64
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030..... 64
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 65
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........ 66
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 66
BMI Forecast Modelling..67
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ...... 67
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology ... 68
Ratings Overview... 68
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators .... 69
Weighting...... 70
Table: Weighting Of Components..... 70
Sources ..... 70
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