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Philippines Defence and Security Report Q4 2010

On August 31, the Philippines Department of Budget and Management proposed a substantial increase in defence spending for FY11, to PHP104.5bn (US$2.3bn), a rise of 81% y-o-y. It is expected to be approved by parliament before the end of 2010. The increase is seen as a means to counter domestic insurgency, as well as to contain China's military expansion. The expenditure items will be: PHP82.3bn for 'personal services,' including military operations, PHP17.1bn for maintenance operations and PHP5.1bn for purchasing. PHP10.1 billion will be allocated to the Air Force, PHP11.3 billion to the Navy, and PHP34.7 billion for the Armed Forces headquarters. It is not clear whether some of this increased spending is actually a re-working of the existing budget allocation. President Aquino has appointed Marvic Leonen - the Dean of the University of the Philippines' College of Law - as chief of the government's peace panel. Leonen's appointment will strongly aid the Aquino administration in sealing a final peace agreement with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), due to his expertise in Philippine indigenous law as well as natural resources law, two key knowledge areas that will be crucial for the talks in the coming months. Communist rebels of the New People's Army (NPA) in August launched a spate of ambushes against the Philippine military and police, resulting in scores of deaths in places such as Northern Samar, Surigao del Sur and Negros Occidental. The most deadly attack was the strike on the police in Northern Samar, which led to the loss of the lives of eight policemen and a district official. Despite the strikes by the militants, the government will continue its efforts in holding peace talks with the NPA. Although the Philippines is one of Asia's longest-established democracies, it is arguably one of the less mature ones. More than most other Asian states, the Philippines is prone to public unrest and either attempted military coups or rumours of such disturbances. There have been two 'People Power' popular uprisings against corrupt presidents (in 1986 and 2001), and several repeated attempts during the 2000s. As a result of the election of President Benigno Aquino in May, we expect an improvement in the country's business environment, given that the new leader has made corruption eradication his key electoral promise earlier this year. While we anticipate that Aquino's campaign against graft will be challenging, we still anticipate a reduction in corruption in response to the new government's efforts.

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Philippines Defence and Security Report Q4 2010

  1. 1. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market Statistics >> Get this Report Now by email!Philippines Defence and Security Report Q4 2010Published on October 2010 Report SummaryOn August 31, the Philippines Department of Budget and Management proposed a substantial increase in defence spending forFY11, to PHP104.5bn (US$2.3bn), a rise of 81% y-o-y. It is expected to be approved by parliament before the end of 2010. Theincrease is seen as a means to counter domestic insurgency, as well as to contain Chinas military expansion.The expenditure items will be: PHP82.3bn for personal services, including military operations, PHP17.1bn for maintenanceoperations and PHP5.1bn for purchasing. PHP10.1 billion will be allocated to the Air Force, PHP11.3 billion to the Navy, and PHP34.7billion for the Armed Forces headquarters. It is not clear whether some of this increased spending is actually a re-working of theexisting budget allocation.President Aquino has appointed Marvic Leonen - the Dean of the University of the Philippines College of Law - as chief of thegovernments peace panel. Leonens appointment will strongly aid the Aquino administration in sealing a final peace agreement withthe Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), due to his expertise in Philippine indigenous law as well as natural resources law, two keyknowledge areas that will be crucial for the talks in the coming months.Communist rebels of the New Peoples Army (NPA) in August launched a spate of ambushes against the Philippine military andpolice, resulting in scores of deaths in places such as Northern Samar, Surigao del Sur and Negros Occidental. The most deadlyattack was the strike on the police in Northern Samar, which led to the loss of the lives of eight policemen and a district official.Despite the strikes by the militants, the government will continue its efforts in holding peace talks with the NPA.Although the Philippines is one of Asias longest-established democracies, it is arguably one of the less mature ones. More than mostother Asian states, the Philippines is prone to public unrest and either attempted military coups or rumours of such disturbances.There have been two People Power popular uprisings against corrupt presidents (in 1986 and 2001), and several repeated attemptsduring the 2000s. As a result of the election of President Benigno Aquino in May, we expect an improvement in the countrys businessenvironment, given that the new leader has made corruption eradication his key electoral promise earlier this year. While weanticipate that Aquinos campaign against graft will be challenging, we still anticipate a reduction in corruption in response to the newgovernments efforts. Table of ContentExecutive Summary 5SWOT Analysis 7Philippines Security SWOT ... 7Philippines Defence Industry SWOT . 8Philippines Political SWOT .. 9Philippines Economic SWOT .. 10Philippines Business Environment SWOT ... 10Global Political Outlook 11Global Hotspots .. 11Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011 ... 12United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections ... 15Latin America: Beyond Lula ... 16Western Europe: All About Austerity .. 17Philippines Defence and Security Report Q4 2010 Page 1/5
  2. 2. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market StatisticsCentral Europe: New Governments To Be Tested ... 18South-East Europe: Turkeys Ongoing Evolution 19Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security . 20Middle East: Ongoing Challenges .. 21Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum... 23Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail 24Wild Cards To Watch .. 25South East Asia Security Overview .. 27The Strategic Outlook for the 2010s ... 27Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia .. 30Other Regional Threats... 34Political Overview .. 38Domestic Politics I .. 38Domestic Politics II 39Long-Term Political Outlook .. 40Security Risk Analysis .. 44BMIs Security Ratings ... 44Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 44Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ... 45Philippines Security Risk Ratings ... 45City Terrorism Rating . 46Table: BMIs Asia City Terrorism Index . 47Security Overview . 48Internal Security Situation .. 48Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) .. 49Abu Sayyaf .. 52New Peoples Army . 53Table: Philippine Insurgent Groups ... 54External Security Situation . 54Piracy . 54Table: Instances of Piracy In South East Asia, 1996-2006 . 55The South China Sea ... 55Bilateral Military Relations 56Armed Forces . 57Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2010 Forecast (including conscripted, 000 personnel) 57Government Expenditure 59International Deployments .. 60Weapons Of Mass Destruction 61Market Overview 62Industry Trends and Developments . 63Arms Trade Overview . 64Procurement Trends and Developments . 64Industry Forecast Scenario ... 67Armed Forces . 67Table: Philippines Armed Forces, 2006-2014 (000 personnel) . 67Government Expenditure 68Table: Philippines Government Defence Expenditure, 2006-2014 . 68Macroeconomic Forecast ... 70Philippines Economic Activity . 72Company Profiles .. 73Philippines Defence and Security Report Q4 2010 Page 2/5
  3. 3. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market StatisticsArms Corporation of the Philippines (Armscor) . 73Government Arsenal ... 74Country Snapshot: Philippines Demographic Data 75Section 1: Population .. 75Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ... 75Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .. 76Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 76Table: Education, 2002-2005 . 76Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ... 76Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 77Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 77Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2007-2012 (US$) ... 77Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2004-2006 78BMI Methodology .. 79How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 79Defence Industry . 79City Terrorism Rating . 80Table: Methodology 82Sources ... 83Philippines Defence and Security Report Q4 2010 Page 3/5
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