Espicom market intelligence, brought to you by Business Monitor InternationalOVERVIEW OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN IRANWe caution that our forecasts for the Iranian pharmaceutical market are at considerable risk due to runaway inflation and political risks. We also point out that the official exchange rate does not follow the trends in the black market, which further distorts market valuations. While our local currency forecast for the market's development is broadly in line with the previous quarter's figure, the value in US dollar terms will be considerably impacted by rising inflation, caused by the sanction induced currency crisis. At the same time, we expect that the volume of pharmaceutical sales in the country will continue to be negatively impacted by the prevailing economic and political conditions. These have already resulted in shortages of certain medicines, on account of the inability of local stakeholders to actually pay for them, given that Iranian banks have been blacklisted. Therefore, despite the country's demography-based long-term potential as a pharmaceutical market, its development clearly remains uncertain for the time being, and dependent on the eventual resolution of the crisis.Headline Expenditure ProjectionsPharmaceuticals: IRR52,127bn (US$1.04bn) in 2012 to IRR55,606bn (US$0.79bn) in 2013; +6.7% in local currency terms and -23.8% in US dollar terms. US dollar f orecast lowered considerably from Q4 12 due to r ampant inflation in Iran.Healthcare: IRR298,573 (US$28.04bn) in 2012 to IRR387,824 (US$29.61bn) in 2013; -10.4% in local currency terms and +5.1% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast lowered considerably from Q4 12 due changes in macroeconomic conditions.Medical devices: IRR14,296bn (US$1.09bn) in 2012 to IRR11,862 (US$0.71); -17.0%% in local currency terms and -35.2% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast lowered considerably from Q4 12 due to rampant inflation in Iran.Competitive Landscape The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

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The Pharmaceutical Market: Iran
Published on January 2013
Report Summary
Espicom market intelligence, brought to you by Business Monitor International
OVERVIEW OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET IN IRAN
We caution that our forecasts for the Iranian pharmaceutical market are at considerable risk due to runaway inflation and political
risks. We also point out that the official exchange rate does not follow the trends in the black market, which further distorts market
valuations. While our local currency forecast for the market's development is broadly in line with the previous quarter's figure, the
value in US dollar terms will be considerably impacted by rising inflation, caused by the sanction induced currency crisis. At the same
time, we expect that the volume of pharmaceutical sales in the country will continue to be negatively impacted by the prevailing
economic and political conditions. These have already resulted in shortages of certain medicines, on account of the inability of local
stakeholders to actually pay for them, given that Iranian banks have been blacklisted. Therefore, despite the country's
demography-based long-term potential as a pharmaceutical market, its development clearly remains uncertain for the time being, and
dependent on the eventual resolution of the crisis.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: IRR52,127bn (US$1.04bn) in 2012 to IRR55,606bn (US$0.79bn) in 2013; +6.7% in local currency terms and
-23.8% in US dollar terms. US dollar f orecast lowered considerably from Q4 12 due to r ampant inflation in Iran.
Healthcare: IRR298,573 (US$28.04bn) in 2012 to IRR387,824 (US$29.61bn) in 2013; -10.4% in local currency terms and +5.1% in
US dollar terms. Local currency forecast lowered considerably from Q4 12 due changes in macroeconomic conditions.
Medical devices: IRR14,296bn (US$1.09bn) in 2012 to IRR11,862 (US$0.71); -17.0%% in local currency terms and -35.2% in US
dollar terms. US dollar forecast lowered considerably from Q4 12 due to rampant inflation in Iran.
Competitive Landscape
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales -
for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.
Table of Content
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Iran Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 7
Iran Political SWOT 8
Iran Economic SWOT 9
Iran Business Environment SWOT 10
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 11
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Table: Middle East And Africa Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 11
Rewards 12
Risks 13
Iran ' Market Summary 14
Regulatory Regime 15
Registration Of Imports 16
Generic Registration 16
Intellectual Property Regime 17
Intellectual Property Disputes 17
Counterfeit Medicines 18
Pricing And Reimbursement 19
Pricing And Reimbursement Developments 20
Industry Trends And Developments 21
Epidemiology 21
HIV/AIDS 22
Table: HIV/AIDS Prevalence In Iran 23
Healthcare Sector 23
Healthcare Spending 24
Primary Care 24
Secondary Care 25
Health Insurance 26
International Healthcare Collaboration 27
Traditional Herbal Remedies 27
Research & Development 28
Clinical Trials 29
Biotechnology 29
Medical Devices 31
Recent Medical Devices Market Developments 32
Industry Forecast Scenario 33
Overall Drug Market Forecast 33
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2009-2016 37
Healthcare Market Forecast 38
Table: Overall Healthcare Expenditure, 2009-2017 39
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure, 2009-2017 39
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2009-2017 40
Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomic 40
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 43
Patented Drug Market Forecast 44
Generic Drug Market Forecast 44
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 45
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 45
Medical Device Market Forecast 49
Table: Medical Device Sales, 2009-2017 51
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts 51
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 52
Competitive Landscape 54
Pharmaceutical Industry 54
Domestic Pharmaceutical Sector 55
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Table: Leading Drug Manufacturers, Iranian Year To March 20, 2009 56
Pharmaceutical Wholesale 56
Table: Leading Distributors, Iranian Year To March 20 2008 57
Retail Pharmacies 57
Company Profiles 58
Local Companies 58
Darou Pakhsh 58
Caspian Tamin Pharmaceutical Company 60
Pharmieco 62
Pars Darou 64
Zahravi Pharmaceutical Company 66
Amin Pharmaceutical Company 68
Sina Darou Pharmaceutical Company 70
Exir Pharmaceuticals 72
Multinational Companies 74
Novartis 74
Merck & Co 75
Pfizer 76
GlaxoSmithKline 77
Sanofi 78
Demographic Outlook 79
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 80
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 81
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 82
Table: Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 82
Glossary 83
BMI Methodology 85
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 85
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 86
Ratings Overview 86
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators 87
Weighting 88
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