A presentation by Resolution Foundation's David Finch for the event 'Living longer and living differently', part of the Intergenerational Commission.

1. Live long and prosper?
Demographic trends and their impact on
living standards

2. People are living longer
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Source: ONS, 2014-based UK and England & Wales lifetables
Average expected years of life at birth for females by generation

3. Each generation is living longer than the next (on average)
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Survival rates for different generations, Males, 1896 to 2015
Source: ONS, 2014-based UK and England & Wales lifetables

4. Living longer is something to be celebrated but raises a challenge
too
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• Individuals need higher incomes to sustain longer
lives

5. Living longer is something to be celebrated but raises a challenge
too
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• Individuals need higher incomes to sustain longer
lives
• Collectively there are concerns that an ageing
population will raise the tax burden (or lower
available support) for younger generations

6. Living longer is something to be celebrated but raises a challenge
too
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• Individuals need higher incomes to sustain longer
lives
• Collectively there are concerns that an ageing
population will raise the tax burden (or lower
available support) for younger generations
• But we are not our grandparents. How we live is
dynamic, not a static thing

7. Changing lives: 1) investing more in their education
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Source: ONS, 2014-based UK lifetables and England & Wales lifetables
Proportion of children in full-time education, 1953 to 2010

8. Changing lives: 2) having children at later ages (and fewer)
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Proportion of women by age of mother having first child
Source: ONS, Live births in England and Wales, 2013

9. Changing lives: 3) working longer
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Female employment rates by age for different generations
Source: Resolution Foundation analysis using Labour Force Survey microdata

10. Changing state: Not just dealing with longevity, but also cohort
size. That complicates things. There are a lot of baby boomers
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Number of births by years (millions)
Source: ONS, UK & England Wales live births, 2015

11. The Baby boomer generation boosted the young population in
1950s and 1960s…
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UK population by generation, 1965
Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates, UK

12. Boosted the working age population in the following decades…
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UK population by generation, 1985
Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates, UK

13. Boosted the working age population in the following decades…
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UK population by generation, 2010
Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates, UK

14. …and are are now set to speed the increase in the ageing of the
population
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UK population by generation, 2036
Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections, UK

15. Traditional support ratio suggests a striking problem about to hit,
but this is too simplistic an argument
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Support ratio (ages 20-64/(under 20 + 65 plus))
Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections, mid-year population estimates, UK

16. An ‘effective’ support ratio (working v non-working population) is
less dramatic – though still simplistic
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Effective support ratio (employees/non-working)
Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections, mid-year population estimates, UK, Labour Market Statistics, BoE historic data

17. Longer lives bring opportunity and challenge
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• Demographics are changing people’s approach to life,
work and family formation
• Younger generations are set to benefit from continued
gains in longevity
• But they also face different challenges to older
generations, particularly from work, housing, wealth
and retirement planning
• These are all issues the Intergenerational Commission
will focus on in the coming months
Source: ONS, 2014-based UK lifetables and England & Wales lifetables

18. Live long and prosper?
Demographic trends and their impact on
living standards